2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[CallMeShaft]

the baseball nerds seem to be big on the value of manipulating service time and there isn't even a salary cap, not sure the hawks brass is right on this one tbh, the goal is to get 2x value or whatever on the aav of a player, easier to do when you have an elite player on an elc that wouldn't otherwise be

We're not competing, nor likely spending to the cap, over the next 3 years. We hopefully will soon after that, so eating up his first ELC year now can theoretically help at that point.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

That only applies if a contender has a player of that quality. The Hawks aren’t contending for awhile yet, so it’s not going to make a difference.

which would make me want to defer their service time even more...you're just going to end up paying fair value sooner if you burn contract years...would we rather have Bedard for an extra year at 925k or have him at the end of his 3 year elc and jumping to 10m when the team was total trash his entire elc.

 

[Paul Allen]

That only applies if a contender has a player of that quality. The Hawks aren’t contending for awhile yet, so it’s not going to make a difference.

Right. And no cap in baseball means some new rich owner can sign your star for 40M/year.

If the NHL didn’t have a cap, McD would be making 25M/ year.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

We're not competing, nor likely spending to the cap, over the next 3 years. We hopefully will soon after that, so eating up his first ELC year now can theoretically help at that point.

the hawks cup teams are a perfect example why its important to manipulate service time when possible on elite players, you had hossa and keith making 5m per year and they were worth double that, when you have a roster of guys that are worth 1.xx-2x their aav thats how you gain an edge over the rest of the league, teams are doing it with ltir right now, so if we have 3-4 elite guys on elcs it just makes it easier to reach this goal and we're not going to be able to do that because bedard, lev, nazar etc are burning these years on terrible teams

 

[Paul Allen]

which would make me want to defer their service time even more...you're just going to end up paying fair value sooner if you burn contract years...would we rather have Bedard for an extra year at 925k or have him at the end of his 3 year elc and jumping to 10m when the team was total trash his entire elc.

It’s still a trash team anyway. Makes the player happy financially while they lose.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Right. And no cap in baseball means some new rich owner can sign your star for 40M/year.

If the NHL didn’t have a cap, McD would be making 25M/ year.

they manipulate service time in baseball where there is no hard cap, wouldn't that suggest its even more valuable in nhl where there is a hard cap

 

[Paul Allen]

the hawks cup teams are a perfect example why its important to manipulate service time when possible on elite players, you had hossa and keith making 5m per year and they were worth double that, when you have a roster of guys that are worth 1.xx-2x their aav thats how you gain an edge over the rest of the league, teams are doing it with ltir right now, so if we have 3-4 elite guys on elcs it just makes it easier to reach this goal and we're not going to be able to do that because bedard, lev, nazar etc are burning these years on terrible teams

The Keith and Hossa deals literally changed the cba a few years later. Not comparable anymore.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

The Keith and Hossa deals literally changed the cba a few years later. Not comparable anymore.

the principal remains the same, you want a roster worth some multiple of the cap ceiling, when you have guys making league min that are top picks that makes it a lot easier...that said it pisses guys off but they could easily pull it off with Levshunov, sending Bedard back to Regina was never happening

 

[Behn Wilson]

It’s still a trash team anyway. Makes the player happy financially while they lose.

While it turned out to be a blessing since injuries killed his career and luckily Cubs are not stuck w his long term contract, part of reason Bryant didnt stay w Cubs was animosity over how they kept him in minors too long to manipulate his service. time.

I dont know right answer here but I am all for keeping the players happy

 

[TheFridge]

the hawks cup teams are a perfect example why its important to manipulate service time when possible on elite players, you had hossa and keith making 5m per year and they were worth double that, when you have a roster of guys that are worth 1.xx-2x their aav thats how you gain an edge over the rest of the league, teams are doing it with ltir right now, so if we have 3-4 elite guys on elcs it just makes it easier to reach this goal and we're not going to be able to do that because bedard, lev, nazar etc are burning these years on terrible teams

You can't use Keith and Hossa as examples bc you can't lower the AAV by adding extra years anymore.

However, you can add deferred payments to lower the AAV. We just haven't seen it in practice and I'm not sure how many players would actually want to use that.

Neither Hossa or Keith were 10/11M players on a 70M cap. That's just wild. They were providing surplus value relative to their caphits, which is what contending teams actually need. You certainly need players living up to/providing surplus value. When that's no longer the case, the decline ensues, because the decline in value is usually on an age curve unless you're just dramatically overvaluing players in their primes.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

You can't use Keith and Hossa as examples bc you can't lower the AAV by adding extra years anymore.

However, you can add deferred payments to lower the AAV. We just haven't seen it in practice and I'm not sure how many players would actually want to use that.

Neither Hossa or Keith were 10/11M players on a 70M cap. That's just wild. They were providing surplus value relative to their caphits, which is what contending teams actually need. You certainly need players living up to/providing surplus value. When that's no longer the case, the decline ensues, because the decline in value is usually on an age curve unless you're just dramatically overvaluing players in their primes.

and what is the surplus value of Levshunov on a 925k contract for 3 years past this one relative to pulling a year forward...the math is really straight forward that its better to defer the service time

 

[CallMeShaft]

the hawks cup teams are a perfect example why its important to manipulate service time when possible on elite players, you had hossa and keith making 5m per year and they were worth double that, when you have a roster of guys that are worth 1.xx-2x their aav thats how you gain an edge over the rest of the league, teams are doing it with ltir right now, so if we have 3-4 elite guys on elcs it just makes it easier to reach this goal and we're not going to be able to do that because bedard, lev, nazar etc are burning these years on terrible teams

Those kids will be burning those years on terrible teams regardless. That's reality. Bedard's and Nazar's ELCs are up after next season. This team will still be awful next year. There is no way around that.

Even if we sent Lev down now, he'd still burn at least one year of his ELC on a likely bottom 5 team. And I'm not sure, in that scenario, he'd be on his ELC during a season where we're more than a bubble team.

Hawks need to play with the hand they've been dealt. Try to get these guys signed for cheaper contracts for when they will be competing. Burning a year of Lev's ELC now does that.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Those kids will be burning those years on terrible teams regardless. That's reality. Bedard's and Nazar's ELCs are up after next season. This team will still be awful next year. There is no way around that.

Even if we sent Lev down now, he'd still burn at least one year of his ELC on a likely bottom 5 team. And I'm not sure, in that scenario, he'd be on his ELC during a season where we're more than a bubble team.

Hawks need to play with the hand they've been dealt. Try to get these guys signed for cheaper contracts for when they will be competing. Burning a year of Lev's ELC now does that.

if Levshunov is sent down his ELC slides a year, if they burn a year it just pulls him a year forward to being paid fair value

 

[TheFridge]

the principal remains the same, you want a roster worth some multiple of the cap ceiling, when you have guys making league min that are top picks that makes it a lot easier...that said it pisses guys off but they could easily pull it off with Levshunov, sending Bedard back to Regina was never happening

The strategy the Hawks are employing with some of these guys, giving them less runway on their ELCs to win larger contracts, is pretty sound. Vlasic is going to be underpaid through his entire second contract. If they get Nazar signed to a 4-5 year deal, that will probably benefit them too (though he's far less proven at this point).

Maximizing ELC is a contender/cap ceiling move. We're not there right now. Having a window of 3-4 years where you have guys like Vlasic making 4.6M is tremendously valuable.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

The strategy the Hawks are employing with some of these guys, giving them less runway on their ELCs to win larger contracts, is pretty sound. Vlasic is going to be underpaid through his entire second contract. If they get Nazar signed to a 4-5 year deal, that will probably benefit them too (though he's far less proven at this point).

Maximizing ELC is a contender/cap ceiling move. We're not there right now. Having a window of 3-4 years where you have guys like Vlasic making 4.6M is tremendously valuable.

honestly not sure it gains extra ev over deferring the service time but it does keep players happy which is something thats harder to account for in the math, it didn't hurt them with reichel or korchinski so theres that

 

[TheFridge]

and what is the surplus value of Levshunov on a 925k contract for 3 years past this one relative to pulling a year forward...the math is really straight forward that its better to defer the service time

Right but the Hawks aren't a cap team so the question isn't whether Lev is more valuable at 925K three years from now. The question is, would Levshunov on a deal paying him 5-6M 5 years from now be more valuable than him making 925k three years from now and then making 7-8M 4 years from now.

 

[Paul Allen]

they manipulate service time in baseball where there is no hard cap, wouldn't that suggest its even more valuable in nhl where there is a hard cap

No, not necessarily. Baseball player development and hockey development have completely different tracts. At 25 an NHL player is in their prime and by 30 we are expecting them to fall off a cliff. Baseball guys might not make the bigs until 25. Aaron Judge was a rookie at 25, McD had been tearing it up for 8 years already for perspective.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

They should just shut down Martinez and Murphy for the rest of the year. Run that kid defense and let’s see what we have.

 

[Paul Allen]

While it turned out to be a blessing since injuries killed his career and luckily Cubs are not stuck w his long term contract, part of reason Bryant didnt stay w Cubs was animosity over how they kept him in minors too long to manipulate his service. time.

I dont know right answer here but I am all for keeping the players happy

Yeah, I think the KB situation really brought the service time thing to everyone’s attention.

 

[TheFridge]

They should just shut down Martinez and Murphy for the rest of the year. Run that kid defense and let’s see what we have.

Martinez, yes. Murphy, I don't think so. I think they'll rotate guys like Lev, Del Mastro, Kaiser, Korch and Rinzel to finish the year. You don't need to scratch healthy vets that are playing well. It's not a good look. Brodie has been a disaster and Martinez is a battered and broken body at this point, so it makes sense to scratch them.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Martinez, yes. Murphy, I don't think so. I think they'll rotate guys like Lev, Del Mastro, Kaiser, Korch and Rinzel to finish the year. You don't need to scratch healthy vets that are playing well. It's not a good look. Brodie has been a disaster and Martinez is a battered and broken body at this point, so it makes sense to scratch them.

Murphy is pretty broken at this point. Back last year, ongoing groin issues this year. It’s why he needs so much maintenance. He’s being held together by duct tape at this point.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Right but the Hawks aren't a cap team so the question isn't whether Lev is more valuable at 925K three years from now. The question is, would Levshunov on a deal paying him 5-6M 5 years from now be more valuable than him making 925k three years from now and then making 7-8M 4 years from now.

in a perfect world the Hawks would've kept Bedard from accruing service time so he's making 925k on a way better team, and it shouldn't really be any different for any other high end prospect the hawks have as long as they're terrible, the optics are easier to send levshunov back than bedard obviously

 

[TheFridge]

in a perfect world the Hawks would've kept Bedard from accruing service time so he's making 925k on a way better team, and it shouldn't really be any different for any other high end prospect the hawks have as long as they're terrible, the optics are easier to send levshunov back than bedard obviously

I don't get why you're so hung up on keeping guys on ELCs for extended periods when the Hawks aren't capped out. Bedard is going to provide positive value relative to his contract pretty much no matter how much he signs his next contract for. All the elite players in the NHL, in their primes, leave surplus value on the table because of how contracts and the cap work in this league.

McDavid could be making 20M per year and he'd still probably be underpaid. It's not the elite players you need to worry about. It's the mid-tier guys.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I don't get why you're so hung up on keeping guys on ELCs for extended periods when the Hawks aren't capped out. Bedard is going to provide positive value relative to his contract pretty much no matter how much he signs his next contract for. All the elite players in the NHL, in their primes, leave surplus value on the table because of how contracts and the cap work in this league.

McDavid could be making 20M per year and he'd still probably be underpaid. It's not the elite players you need to worry about. It's the mid-tier guys.

going back to the idea of having a team worth 2x the cap ceiling or whatever, you have a lot more surplus value when you have high end players on elcs, seems obvious that when presented the opportunity to manipulate future cap dollars in your favor that you should take it all else equal

Bedard providing surplus value for whatever he signs for is a huge assumption, if he's a 70 point forward and signs for 12m he's not providing surplus value

anyway enough talk about the elc, seems the philosophy of the brass is to not worry about this sort of thing

 

[TheFridge]

going back to the idea of having a team worth 2x the cap ceiling or whatever, you have a lot more surplus value when you have high end players on elcs, seems obvious that when presented the opportunity to manipulate future cap dollars in your favor that you should take it all else equal

Bedard providing surplus value for whatever he signs for is a huge assumption, if he's a 70 point forward and signs for 12m he's not providing surplus value

12M on a 100M cap is 12%. Kane and Toews signed for 10.61% of the cap on their 2nd deals. Bedard will 100% be providing surplus value over the length of a 5-6 year deal earning 12M. Plus, he's basically a 70-point forward playing with no one. He's not going to max out as a 70-point forward.