2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[nmgrbhfn]

He's been given a million opportunities to play up the lineup, and he has squandered it every single time.

Every. Single. Time.

Play up with who? AA? TJ? Raddysh? The new vets from this year everyone hates? After his stint learning how to muck he should have been flipped with Mikheyev, since Mikheyev is just a slightly better AA.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Don't sign Bedard for 5 this offseason if that's all you're going to get from his camp. Wait until he signs for 8. Don't worry too much about trying to save a few pennies on the next deal. 8 years is most important thing. He can go into next season without a contract if sides want to wait to see if he has like 100 points to command a bigger AAV on his 8 year deal.

 

[TLEH]

Don't sign Bedard for 5 this offseason if that's all you're going to get from his camp. Wait until he signs for 8. Don't worry too much about trying to save a few pennies on the next deal. 8 years is most important thing. He can go into next season without a contract if sides want to wait to see if he has like 100 points to command a bigger AAV on his 8 year deal.

100% agree.

 

[TheFridge]

Don't sign Bedard for 5 this offseason if that's all you're going to get from his camp. Wait until he signs for 8. Don't worry too much about trying to save a few pennies on the next deal. 8 years is most important thing. He can go into next season without a contract if sides want to wait to see if he has like 100 points to command a bigger AAV on his 8 year deal.

You might not be able to get him on an 8-year deal, even if he was producing 100 points per year. The best players in the world always lose money on long-term deals, even if they max out. The cap goes up, they produce at higher rates (or the same if they're McDavid, for instance) and they inevitably become underpaid over the life of the contract.

Look at what Matthews has done in Toronto. He didn't sign 5 and then 4-year deals because he didn't want to stay in Toronto. He did it to maximize the value of his deals, while not completely forgoing longer-term security.

Realistically, McDavid never should have signed for 8 years in 2017. Now his next deal he'll be 29 and he would be better off signing for as long a term as possible. He could have signed for 12x5, then probably 14.5x5 and then signed a final contract at 30 and he still would have gotten 8 years and 15M from whoever signs him.

 

[x Tame Impala]

I’m worried Bedard will want those shitty 4 year deals at high cap hits. Doesn’t he have the same agent as Matthews too?

 

[BobbyJet]

You might not be able to get him on an 8-year deal, even if he was producing 100 points per year. The best players in the world always lose money on long-term deals, even if they max out. The cap goes up, they produce at higher rates (or the same if they're McDavid, for instance) and they inevitably become underpaid over the life of the contract.

Look at what Matthews has done in Toronto. He didn't sign 5 and then 4-year deals because he didn't want to stay in Toronto. He did it to maximize the value of his deals, while not completely forgoing longer-term security.

Realistically, McDavid never should have signed for 8 years in 2017. Now his next deal he'll be 29 and he would be better off signing for as long a term as possible. He could have signed for 12x5, then probably 14.5x5 and then signed a final contract at 30 and he still would have gotten 8 years and 15M from whoever signs him.

There's also the risk of injury and cutting a career short. Personally, I'd be taking the long term contract for whatever I could get if it was presented. Sometimes we forget that these players are only human. Some will take risks for more money in the long term, others would take the security of a guaranteed 8 year paycheck.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You might not be able to get him on an 8-year deal, even if he was producing 100 points per year. The best players in the world always lose money on long-term deals, even if they max out. The cap goes up, they produce at higher rates (or the same if they're McDavid, for instance) and they inevitably become underpaid over the life of the contract.

Look at what Matthews has done in Toronto. He didn't sign 5 and then 4-year deals because he didn't want to stay in Toronto. He did it to maximize the value of his deals, while not completely forgoing longer-term security.

Realistically, McDavid never should have signed for 8 years in 2017. Now his next deal he'll be 29 and he would be better off signing for as long a term as possible. He could have signed for 12x5, then probably 14.5x5 and then signed a final contract at 30 and he still would have gotten 8 years and 15M from whoever signs him.

Matthews should have never been allowed to sign that deal. It was awful GM'ing by Dubas. These kids don't even have Arbitration rights yet. There are definitely allures to long-term deals (stability, long-term financial security). Understand the math doesn't work out too great for a greedy player looking max career earnings, but on the same token, that's why the math does work out well for the team.

A deal where he's basically walking directly into UFA is awful. If the team doesn't turn a corner, he could ask for a trade in 2 years and you're screwed. Even if it does, your best case is just a Matthews quick re-up scenario and then he probably finally wants an 8 year deal when he's 31.

 

[TheFridge]

There's also the risk of injury cutting a career short. Personally, I'd be taking the long term contract for whatever I could get if it was presented. Sometimes we forget that these players are only human. Some will take risks for more money in the long term, others would take the security of a guaranteed 8 year paycheck.

Can anyone think of an elite player whose career was cut short due to injury in the last 25 years? I honestly can't think of anyone. I don't think many of the top guys think like that.

Now if you're mid or low tier NHLer like Chandler Stephenson, you take 8 years every single time.

Matthews should have never been allowed to sign that deal. It was awful GM'ing by Dubas. These kids don't even have Arbitration rights yet. There are definitely allures to long-term deals (stability, long-term financial security). Understand the math doesn't work out too great for a greedy player looking max career earnings, but on the same token, that's why the math does work out well for the team.

A deal where he's basically walking directly into UFA is awful. If the team doesn't turn a corner, he could ask for a trade in 2 years and you're screwed. Even if it does, your best case is just a Matthews quick re-up scenario and then he probably finally wants an 8 year deal when he's 31.

Teams never actually have the leverage. The player always does. Go ahead, try to play hardball with a star player, all you're going to do is ensure they're out the door quicker. The Blackhawks can't actually afford to let Bedard sit out a season if they can't come to terms. And then at that point, the relationship is irrevocably damaged and he'd have to be dealt anyways.

You can play hardball with lesser players; secondary pieces. You can't with stars.

 

[BobbyJet]

Thank goodness, that most NHL stars have remained generally healthy.

That said, Crosby was fortunate enough to be able to return after nearly a 2-year absence. Mario Lemieux, similar after his cancer scare. the Lindros brothers careers cut short by concussions. In the past Orr had to retire at 30. No player is immune.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Can anyone think of an elite player whose career was cut short due to injury in the last 25 years? I honestly can't think of anyone. I don't think many of the top guys think like that.

Now if you're mid or low tier NHLer like Chandler Stephenson, you take 8 years every single time.



Teams never actually have the leverage. The player always does. Go ahead, try to play hardball with a star player, all you're going to do is ensure they're out the door quicker. The Blackhawks can't actually afford to let Bedard sit out a season if they can't come to terms. And then at that point, the relationship is irrevocably damaged and he'd have to be dealt anyways.

You can play hardball with lesser players; secondary pieces. You can't with stars.

Can anyone think of an elite player that sat out a season in the last 25 years? I honestly can't think of anyone. What's he gonna do, bolt for the KHL?

 

[TheFridge]

Can anyone think of an elite player that sat out a season in the last 25 years? I honestly can't think of anyone. What's he gonna do, bolt for the KHL?

Because you don't play hardball with stars. What are the Hawks going to do? Ice a team without their only attraction? Come on now.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Because you don't play hardball with stars. What are the Hawks going to do? Ice a team without their only attraction? Come on now.

He won't hold out though, he'll just sign a short deal.. or an offer sheet at his ideal term length where you seriously consider the 4 first round picks if he doesn’t want to be here. Which is why you never see those level of offer sheets because four first round picks for again a guy who can auto walk into free agency is a massive gamble.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Can anyone think of an elite player that sat out a season in the last 25 years? I honestly can't think of anyone. What's he gonna do, bolt for the KHL?

Nylander is the closest example

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

I’m worried Bedard will want those shitty 4 year deals at high cap hits. Doesn’t he have the same agent as Matthews too?

Would be smart thing for him to do especially since according to people here we will still be rebuilding into the 2030's

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Do you guys think Hawks move on from Phillips after this year or earlier if he is part of trade?

RFA after year and turns 24 before next season

Vlasic, Kaiser and Allan are clearly ahead of him on depth chart while Crevier has been up more this year and played far more so it appears he may be higher up to Hawks brass in totem poll at this point

Add in Korchinski, Del Mastro and Lev as well in mix

It doesn't seem he has future here nor has he shown enough to nail down NHL role in his numerous chances

Maybe they keep him around another year as AHL/depth but it feels like his time with organization like Kurashev's will end at end of season

 

[Mrfenn92]

Do you guys think Hawks move on from Phillips after this year or earlier if he is part of trade?

RFA after year and turns 24 before next season

Vlasic, Kaiser and Allan are clearly ahead of him on depth chart while Crevier has been up more this year and played far more so it appears he may be higher up to Hawks brass in totem poll at this point

Add in Korchinski, Del Mastro and Lev as well in mix

It doesn't seem he has future here nor has he shown enough to nail down NHL role in his numerous chances

Maybe they keep him around another year as AHL/depth but it feels like his time with organization like Kurashev's will end at end of season

I believe they’ll do him a solid and move apart.

 

[TLEH]

I agree that at the end of the day the player holds the leverage. But Bedard hasn’t really reached that point where he is a full leverage player.

 

[ColbyChaos]

You might not be able to get him on an 8-year deal, even if he was producing 100 points per year. The best players in the world always lose money on long-term deals, even if they max out. The cap goes up, they produce at higher rates (or the same if they're McDavid, for instance) and they inevitably become underpaid over the life of the contract.

Look at what Matthews has done in Toronto. He didn't sign 5 and then 4-year deals because he didn't want to stay in Toronto. He did it to maximize the value of his deals, while not completely forgoing longer-term security.

Realistically, McDavid never should have signed for 8 years in 2017. Now his next deal he'll be 29 and he would be better off signing for as long a term as possible. He could have signed for 12x5, then probably 14.5x5 and then signed a final contract at 30 and he still would have gotten 8 years and 15M from whoever signs him.

And Matthews will never win a cup for that and his team can’t even make it past the first round. If Bedard wants to play the dumbass games Matthews is and gut his teams depth every 4-5 years then he can be shown the door because you won’t win with that me first type of player.

Unlike Matthews McDavid cared about winning enough to not handicap his team by chasing the highest aav every four years.

 

[GIADF]

Eh, I don't think that's the main reason Matthews and Toronto haven't won a Cup.

If Bedard wants to go down the road of 4-5 year deals to maximize his earnings, who am I to judge?

 

[MHO]

Do you guys think Hawks move on from Phillips after this year or earlier if he is part of trade?

RFA after year and turns 24 before next season

I'd like to see him added as a sweetener with a trade deadline sell that turns a 3rd round pick into a 2nd. Or maybe a 2nd into a 1st.

 

[GIADF]

I'd like to see him added as a sweetener with a trade deadline sell that turns a 3rd round pick into a 2nd. Or maybe a 2nd into a 1st.

No way. Phillips doesn't really have any value at all.

23-year old former 5th round pick from nearly 5 years ago who can't crack the lineup of the worst team in the league. Nobody is giving anything beyond like a 6th round pick or future considerations for that.

If anything, just do him a solid and let him go play somewhere else for some good karma down the road.

 

[MHO]

No way. Phillips doesn't really have any value at all.

23-year old former 5th round pick from nearly 5 years ago who can't crack the lineup of the worst team in the league. Nobody is giving anything beyond like a 6th round pick or future considerations for that.

If anything, just do him a solid and let him go play somewhere else for some good karma down the road.

I'm not saying he's good. But just because he can't crack the lineup on the worst team in the league doesn't mean he's bad. If the Hawks have any strength at all, it's left handed defensemen. I'm not saying they're all that good but just because he's not better than Vlasic, Kaiser, Allan, or Korchinski doesn't mean he stinks.

I agree that he doesn't get much on his own. But let's say you sell Taylor Hall at the deadline for a 3rd. It's possible that throwing him in the deal turns that 3rd into a 2nd. And yeah, I'm with you that if you can't sell Phillips at all this year, then I'm happy letting him go to any team he wants.

 

[ploppsdman]

Phillips will likely be traded for another stalled mediocre prospect - there's not enough ice time in Rockford for him & he looks stale.

 

[GIADF]

But just because he can't crack the lineup on the worst team in the league doesn't mean he's bad. If the Hawks have any strength at all, it's left handed defensemen. I'm not saying they're all that good but just because he's not better than Vlasic, Kaiser, Allan, or Korchinski doesn't mean he stinks.

I'll meet you in the middle. Yes, he is blocked by better players.

But he himself also stinks and I don't think he has an NHL future beyond maybe being the 7th guy.

 

[giza]

Just goes to show, it's not just about being a really good skater----you have to read and think the game.....Phillips has stalled out in that capacity.