2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[WarriorofTime]

Right and the extra years is what makes it market rate. He's been great but Boston didn't expect him to bloom into what he became.

Right, I'm just saying it's basically a race between those two factors, and you don't necessarily know which way it'll turn out because it all depends on how a player ages. Jones will be 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 and 35 the last six years of his deal. It's not unreasonable for a 33 or 34 year old Jones to not be worse than he is right now if he stays healthy and has a good aging process. Of course it could also go poorly and those last 3 years are disasters at a time the Hawks will be wanting to use the cap space productively.

 

[Hawkaholic]

He's really not though. People are just kinda dumb about defensemen, you sign a Forward for too much money, he puts up 60 points and people go "well he makes too much money but a 60 point player is still valuable." You sign a Defenseman that is asked to do too much and play all the best competition and people suddenly think an AHL guy is better.

What? lol
You sign a Dman to the 6th largest contract out of Dmen, you expect him to be one of the best 10 Dmen in the league. Seth Jones doesn't come close to being in the top 10 of Dmen, and didn't before he signed that contract. It has nothing to do with how much he does, he isn't worth close to the money he makes.

 

[HawksDub89]

But his contract was never bad, Seth Jones' was bad the minute he signed it.

Exhibit A

There are some people who actually think he’s bad.

What? lol
You sign a Dman to the 6th largest contract out of Dmen, you expect him to be one of the best 10 Dmen in the league. Seth Jones doesn't come close to being in the top 10 of Dmen, and didn't before he signed that contract. It has nothing to do with how much he does, he isn't worth close to the money he makes.

Nobody is arguing the contract. The push back is directed at stupid comments about Jones being bad. Which is incorrect.

Consider me not surprised you can’t comprehend that.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Exhibit A

There are some people who actually think he’s bad.



Nobody is arguing the contract. The push back is directed at stupid comments about Jones being bad. Which is incorrect.

Consider me not surprised you can’t comprehend that.

Please show me where I said Seth Jones is bad.

He was comparing Marchands original deal to Seth Jones deal. Marchand was paid market value, and not overpaid like Jones was. Learn how to follow a conversation.

 

[statswatcher]

Nobody is arguing the contract. The push back is directed at stupid comments about Jones being bad. Which is incorrect.

Consider me not surprised you can’t comprehend that.

color me unsurprised that you can't comprehend the difference between "not a top 10 defenseman" and "bad". now who's having arguments with themself?

 

[Mrfenn92]

Long off season boys for trivial arguments

 

[WarriorofTime]

What? lol
You sign a Dman to the 6th largest contract out of Dmen, you expect him to be one of the best 10 Dmen in the league. Seth Jones doesn't come close to being in the top 10 of Dmen, and didn't before he signed that contract. It has nothing to do with how much he does, he isn't worth close to the money he makes.

I never said the contract was good..

 

[u2wojo]

I don't think even the most fevervent defender of Seth Jones will argue that he is not overpaid. Stunley Blowman was so desperate to save his job that he bid against himself both in terms of trade cost and contract to get Jones. The only other destination Jones would accept was Dallas if I remember correctly and any rational observer would have never paid the assets of contract knowing Dallas was not going to be anywhere near on either front. The correct aproach would have been to call the bluff and let him rot in Columbus, get Dallas to pony up, or make a deal and contract at a rational number once the bluff was called and the real market was more obvious to Jones and CO. Jones should have been signed for 7-7.5 and he would be paid as the mid 20's highest D man in the league which is more appropriate for what he actually is (when adding a little bit of weighting for the right handed part).

At this point, we are hoping a couple of a summers of signiifcant cap inflation soften how big that overpay was and hoping he ages more like McDonaugh did then Seabs or Vlasic's cousin did in that 7ish million a year dman category.

 

[HawksDub89]

color me unsurprised that you can't comprehend the difference between "not a top 10 defenseman" and "bad". now who's having arguments with themself?

Oof, you’re still struggling. Go back and read it again.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I never said the contract was good..

Ok, so you are saying Marchands contract was bad at one point? Because it wasn't.

Oof, you’re still struggling. Go back and read it again.

You are definitely the one struggling.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Ok, so you are saying Marchands contract was bad at one point? Because it wasn't.

Lol no, I didn't say that, I don't know how you got that from what I said.

Marchand's contract went from alright to amazing based on how he aged. The hope is that Jones contract goes from bad to ok based on how he ages.

I brought up Marchand to show how it's possible that someone ages really well and thus it's possible to "win the race" of a proportional cap hit dropping quicker than a player declines. How good Jones, Marchand and their respective contracts are was not really my point.

I didn't have an example off the top of my head of a player whose cap hit was too high, but stayed at around the same level the whole time and thus by the end the cap hit wasn't so bad. I'm sorry.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Lol no, I didn't say that, I don't know how you got that from what I said.

Marchand's contract went from alright to amazing based on how he aged. The hope is that Jones contract goes from bad to ok based on how he ages.

I brought up Marchand to show how it's possible that someone ages really well and thus it's possible to "win the race" of a proportional cap hit dropping quicker than a player declines. How good Jones, Marchand and their respective contracts are was not really my point.

I didn't have an example off the top of my head of a player whose cap hit was too high, but stayed at around the same level the whole time and thus by the end the cap hit wasn't so bad. I'm sorry.

That's where what you were saying didn't make sense to me. Jones' contract was never alright, like Marchands, it was bad from the get go. Marchands went from good to amazing. Much easier for a contract to become great, when the contract started out as good from the get go.

And you are right, I can't think of any contracts that were bad from the get go and became tolerable over time.

 

[Northernhawk]

Sign
Patrick Kane
Tyler Bertuzzi
Dylan DeMelo
Chris Dreidger
please

 

[Hawkaholic]

Sign
Patrick Kane
Tyler Bertuzzi
Dylan DeMelo
Chris Dreidger
please

why?

 

[statswatcher]

Oof, you’re still struggling. Go back and read it again.

hawkaholic said:

But his contract was never bad, Seth Jones' was bad the minute he signed it.

you, apparently not knowing that an apostrophe at the end of a word which ends in ‘s’ denotes a possessive reply:

There are some people who actually think he’s bad.

so yeah, it's you arguing against a point nobody made, and it is in fact you struggling to comprehend the most basic elements of what is statistically likely to be the only language you speak. it is very funny, keep going.

 

[u2wojo]

why?

Cause Soda sucked this year and at approaching 50 NHL games and 25, it is just as likely that he is what we have seen as it is he improves. A normal season of Mrazek (missing a bunch of games to injury and way less consistant (aka bad)) with what Soda has shown means we are in the top 3 picks prelotto again regardless of what improvements we make otherwise. Soda needs competition and Dreidger has shown at least competance at the NHL level which Soda has not to this point. Sign a guy like Dreidger who gives you a reasobaly NHL competitive floor, but can slide to the AHL for depth if Soda actually does take a development step.

 

[statswatcher]

And you are right, I can't think of any contracts that were bad from the get go and became tolerable over time.

bobrovsky maybe, though that's admittedly something of a stretch. you might say it was roughly market value when it was signed and he just fell off a cliff. i always thought it was an overpay.

 

[u2wojo]

That's where what you were saying didn't make sense to me. Jones' contract was never alright, like Marchands, it was bad from the get go. Marchands went from good to amazing. Much easier for a contract to become great, when the contract started out as good from the get go.

And you are right, I can't think of any contracts that were bad from the get go and became tolerable over time.

The problem is that the cap has gone up less than 5% total over the last 6 seasons so there really has not been any inflation to work through existing contracts. Cap is projected to jump 5% each of the next 2 Summers so we will actually see some relative value of existing contracts start to decline.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Cause Soda sucked this year and at approaching 50 NHL games and 25, it is just as likely that he is what we have seen as it is he improves. A normal season of Mrazek (missing a bunch of games to injury and way less consistant (aka bad)) with what Soda has shown means we are in the top 3 picks prelotto again regardless of what improvements we make otherwise. Soda needs competition and Dreidger has shown at least competance at the NHL level which Soda has not to this point. Sign a guy like Dreidger who gives you a reasobaly NHL competitive floor, but can slide to the AHL for depth if Soda actually does take a development step.

Yes, Soda sucks, but I don't think Driedger is any better at this point. I would hope for someone a little better. I guess a league min contract for him would be fine, but in that case, I hope they sign 2 goalies.

 

[Kevin Musto]

 

[Hawkaholic]

bobrovsky maybe, though that's admittedly something of a stretch. you might say it was roughly market value when it was signed and he just fell off a cliff. i always thought it was an overpay.

Definitely a stretch. even with his play today, he is overpaid. But I am a big believer in not forking out big contracts to goalies.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Lol no, I didn't say that, I don't know how you got that from what I said.

Marchand's contract went from alright to amazing based on how he aged. The hope is that Jones contract goes from bad to ok based on how he ages.

I brought up Marchand to show how it's possible that someone ages really well and thus it's possible to "win the race" of a proportional cap hit dropping quicker than a player declines. How good Jones, Marchand and their respective contracts are was not really my point.

I didn't have an example off the top of my head of a player whose cap hit was too high, but stayed at around the same level the whole time and thus by the end the cap hit wasn't so bad. I'm sorry.

It's possible but I wouldn't expect his production to go up 33% of his career high in his thirties. Like it could happen but guys very rarely have their career peaks ten plus years into their careers.

 

[Drumman44]

More importantly, when does "On the Clock" start? I think I look forward to that more than anything else all season.

 

[scorehawks]

Kane is 242 points behind Mikita. Quit chasing cups, 3's enough, come back 3 x $7.5, average 80 points as season riding shotgun with Bedard and PP time. Boom. Done.

 

[ClydeLee]

Erik Johnsons contract was awful for Colorado, he was still making 6mil as a 3rd pair dman for their cup win though. That's a scenario with a higher cap, the cap% could be close to that and we have Jones being similar in talent near the end of his deal.