2024-25: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[deadhead]

I don’t think he realizes the larger self-defeating point he’s making with regard to discussing/projecting the skill-sets of teenagers.

Laughton at the pro level, at his best, has skewed more to being a scorer than a shutdown play-driver, whatever the narrative or amateur evaluation. Frost has skewed more defensive in his impacts. No one knows how players’ skills manifest up. It’s a fool’s errand to talk about amateurs and determinatively state, “This girthy player will be a defensive defenseman! That roadkill will be a one-way scorer! This historically high scoring NTDP defenseman will be a dynamo!” It’s a lesson in humility and, yet again, why drafting for fit is multi-level stupid.

Yet people here project CHL and NCAA scorers to be NHL scorers around here all the time!

I don't think you can draft for fit, but you can draft for skills.
That is, when putting together a draft board, and judging players, you should have an idea of what qualities you value.

It's not that you want one skill over another, rather, if you've done your homework, you know what intangibles are conducive to success (IQ, work ethic, etc.) and what skills fit your team building approach. So you might put a higher weight on size/speed relative to shooting, for example. It's not either/or, but more a subtle balancing.

And how you value skills may depend where you're drafting.

After the second round, you might discount offensive skills b/c you don't want an organization full of undersized, mediocre scorers who can't contribute on the PK, for example. You might prefer big D-men who can skate later in the draft than smaller D-men who are mediocre across the board. Smaller guys don't get bigger (for the most part) but bigger guys sometimes get more skillful.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Why bother when we have you on the board?

I praise them when they do good things. I slam them when they do bad things.

You praise everything they do, including obviously bad moves

 

[deadhead]

Berglund is now a regular in the SHL, and finally broke out with a goal and an apple last night.

18 year old forwards struggle for PT in the SHL
2024 draft
Pettersson #35 9g 0-1 1
Berglund #51 10g 1-2 3
Traff #91 8g 2-3 5
Norringer #127 6g 0-0 0
Vuollet #133 15g 4-3 7
Svensson #138 4g 1-0 0
2023 draft
Stenberg #25 31g 3-3 6
Enstrom #32 44g 7-12 19
Wahlberg #39 43g 5-5 10
Nilsson #43 41g 1-2 3
Sorum #63 35g 3-12 15
Dower-Nilsson #73 5g 1-1 2
2022 draft
Lekkerimaki #15
Ostlund #16
Ohgren #19
Pettersson #72 29g 1-1 2
Persson #85 1g 0-0 0

 

[Curufinwe]

Rizzo had his appendix out a few weeks ago and will be out 6-8 weeks from then

 

[VladDrag]

Rizzo had his appendix out a few weeks ago and will be out 6-8 weeks from then

Thanks. That sucks.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Better out than in

 

[LHV]

Big win for the Phantoms tonight againts the Bears.
Nice to have some positive sometimes.

 

[deadhead]

Makinieimi with 29 saves.

 

[deadhead]

This explains why RIzzo has been MIA:

Philadelphia Flyers prospect Massimo Rizzo has reportedly suffered an appendicitis that required him to have surgery a few weeks ago to get his appendix removed (as per Flyers reporter Bill Meltzer). The early reports indicate that Rizzo will require a six to eight-week timeline to recover from the appendectomy. The 23-year-old is slated to play in the AHL for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms but has yet to dress in a game this season.

 

[Bjindaho]

Mann's last two games...

 

[deadhead]

I'll laugh at some people here if Mann turns out to be NHL material.

Betting on oversized players developing coordination is as good a gamble as betting on undersized offensive players who lack strength, IQ or special skills in the 7th round.

That is, buy your lottery ticket and forget about it for five years.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Wow, doubled his season point total!

 

[WIP CALLER]

I'm surprised Deady hasn't penciled him in to 2026 starting line up after that goal

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Betting on oversized players developing coordination is as good a gamble as betting on undersized offensive players who lack strength, IQ or special skills in the 7th round.

That is, buy your lottery ticket and forget about it for five years.

"Why are sportsbooks so profitable?"

Wow, doubled his season point total!

The only thing dropping quicker than the standard for good process around here is the NHLe for the Q.

 

[FLYguy3911]

If you think this is what an NHL profile looks like, I encourage you to check out what Nic Deslauriers did as a defenseman in the Q (and he was never an overager) and see what he looks like handling the puck at the NHL level.

 

[deadhead]

"Why are sportsbooks so profitable?"



The only thing dropping quicker than the standard for good process around here is the NHLe for the Q.

The odds of any 7th rd pick making the NHL are very small.

And it's smaller now b/c undersized skill players no longer fall that far in the draft (Bratt would probably get drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rd these days).

So you're gambling on "outliers."
Just a question of which outlier.

To me, large D-men who are mobile are probably the "moneyball" play from the 5th rd to the back of the draft. It's more likely that a big 18 year improves his hand to eye coordination as he physically matures than a small player with mediocre skills becomes a highly skilled offensive player.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The odds of any 7th rd pick making the NHL are very small.

Of course.

And it's smaller now b/c undersized skill players no longer fall that far in the draft (Bratt would probably get drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rd these days).

So you're gambling on "outliers."
Just a question of which outlier.

To me, large D-men who are mobile are probably the "moneyball" play from the 5th rd to the back of the draft. It's more likely that a big 18 year improves his hand to eye coordination as he physically matures than a small player with mediocre skills becomes a highly skilled offensive player.

Do we have any supporting data for this?

To me, it sounds like the things people say to sound smart like "Just draft high-end toolsy QBs on Day 3 instead of Round 1." But I'm always willing to listen if you've got data.

 

[deadhead]

Of course.



Do we have any supporting data for this?

To me, it sounds like the things people say to sound smart like "Just draft high-end toolsy QBs on Day 3 instead of Round 1." But I'm always willing to listen if you've got data.

It's tough b/c these players generally take 5-6 years to make it, so you're trying to figure out how things have changed during a period where the league was adjusting to the implications of the change in rule enforcement.

What is shocking is how fast late round success fell off after 2015.
Not just later, but I went back and looked at 4th rd picks, same lack of success.

2015 was an exceptionally deep draft, but this also suggests that NHL teams have gotten much better at identifying potential prospects and thus picks after the first 3 rounds should be discounted at a higher rate than in the past. Basically use them to obtain veterans or trade into the top 100.

2015 draft (200 games)
#123 Garland 5'8 181
#124 Bear D 5'11 191
#127 Mikkola D 6'4 181
#135 Kaprizov 5'10 203
#137 Simon 5'11 176
#148 Terry 6'0 185
#149 Gaudette 6'1 194
#154 Marino D 6'1 181
#159 Gavrikov D 6'3 214
#166 Mangiapane 5'10 183
#168 Appleton 6'2 196
#186 Lorentz 6'4 205
#189 Nutivaara D 6'1 187
#194 Roy D 6'1 205
2016 draft (200 games)
#159 Hagel 6'2 183
#162 Bratt 5'10 174
2017 draft (150 games)
#137 Cates 6'1 165
#139 Aho D 5'10 176
#169 Perbix D 6'2 192
#174 Barron 6'4 220
2018 draft (150 games)
#141 Sharangovich 6'2 196 [20 years old]
2019 draft (100 games)
#125 Kastelic 6'4 227
#210 Parssinen 6'3 212

4th round picks:
2016 draft (200 games)
#100 Mete D
#106 Duhaime
#111 Gregory
#118 Colton
2017 draft (150 games)
#99 Bryson D
#103 Anderson D
#117 Bernstrom
#121 Batherson
2018 draft (150 games)
#115 Cotter
#120 Kurashev
2019 draft (100 games)
#98 Macelli

 

[usahockey22flyers]

How bout those Niagara Ice Dogs?!

 

[Magua]

Curious to see what Mann could do in Mestis in a few more seasons.

 

[deadhead]

Curious to see what Mann could do in Mestis in a few more seasons.

Probably end up better than Pautov, for what it's worth.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'll laugh at some people here if Mann turns out to be NHL material.

Betting on oversized players developing coordination is as good a gamble as betting on undersized offensive players who lack strength, IQ or special skills in the 7th round.

That is, buy your lottery ticket and forget about it for five years.

He won't. It'll be a miracle if he's ECHL material.

 

[Magua]

Probably end up better than Pautov, for what it's worth.

Pautov, who I've never commented on, probably ends up fringe KHL. Mann probably ends up in the EIHL. It's a big bucket of who gives a f***. You're the one who writes Homeric epics about every late round pick.

 

[deadhead]

Pautov, who I've never commented on, probably ends up fringe KHL. Mann probably ends up in the EIHL. It's a big bucket of who gives a f***. You're the one who writes Homeric epics about every late round pick.

I'm not the one who slobbered over Pautov.

Sotheran yes, after an outstanding D+1 season, though I think the heart thing has hurt him starting out this season, the same way mono hurt Barkey.

McDonald, we'll see. Flyers seem to be high on him, so far he's first pair with Belpedio in LHV.
Ideally he can develop into a Seeler type, more likely a more mobile version of Ginning.

Moline, Powell, MacPherson, Mann, Sulku, Gendron, Samson, McGlauthin, I expect nothing.
Hitting on Cates (2017), Ersson (2018) is a big plus.
I won't hold my breath on Lycksell, who has an outside chance at a NHL career (more likely to end up like Richard, AHL + who gets a couple NHL stints).

Looking at those drafts, after 2015, it became harder to find talent outside the top 100.
I think weaker drafts, but also easier access to video combined with analytics (encouraging teams to take closer looks at some players) improved drafting around the league.

 

[BigToe]

No points for Jett today, Guelph lost in OT. Wonder if an OHL contender ends up trading for him.