Prospect Info: 2024/25 Oilers Prospect Thread

[McDNicks17]

Right? If he is often playing on a line with good offensive players, and often playing with one of the best offensive d in the league, he should be collecting points. Like what, is his role to never touch the puck and only let the other guys?
He is also seeming to settle into more of a third line role for the team which, I don’t know much but that’s not a great sign for a first round draft pick in his d+1.
Like it’s not bust status or anything but it definitely points to a guy who will most likely be a limited player. Like a 3rd/4th liner in the NHL. Not completely useless but still.

Like if he continues his pace over 68 games he will actually drop 10 points from last season. Which….i mean.

Instead of guessing, you could watch them play.

The Knights are a heavy rush team and it's usually Dickinson either rushing the puck or joining the rush. Tonight is a good example of how much the offense is focused around him. The Knights scored six goals. He had six points. O'Reilly is the guy deep in the Knights zone playing D and he was almost always the guy that sits back in Dickinson's spot because it would be stupid to not let a defenseman scoring at 2 points per game roam. You aren't going to collect many points when some of the best players in the CHL are scoring at will off the rush or as the net-front PP guy when everything is just going in from the outside.

O'Reilly showed his value tonight. Just an absolute stud defensively and showed that 1st round skill when he had a chance.

 

[Shizuka]

Dickinson is something else, nearly 2pts a game as a D. Guy is just too good for junior at this point. SJ has an incredible prospect there.

 

[Senor Catface]

Instead of guessing, you could watch them play.

The Knights are a heavy rush team and it's usually Dickinson either rushing the puck or joining the rush. Tonight is a good example of how much the offense is focused around him. The Knights scored six goals. He had six points. O'Reilly is the guy deep in the Knights zone playing D and he was almost always the guy that sits back in Dickinson's spot because it would be stupid to not let a defenseman scoring at 2 points per game roam. You aren't going to collect many points when some of the best players in the CHL are scoring at will off the rush or as the net-front PP guy when everything is just going in from the outside.

O'Reilly showed his value tonight. Just an absolute stud defensively and showed that 1st round skill when he had a chance.

 

[Fourier]

Instead of guessing, you could watch them play.

The Knights are a heavy rush team and it's usually Dickinson either rushing the puck or joining the rush. Tonight is a good example of how much the offense is focused around him. The Knights scored six goals. He had six points. O'Reilly is the guy deep in the Knights zone playing D and he was almost always the guy that sits back in Dickinson's spot because it would be stupid to not let a defenseman scoring at 2 points per game roam. You aren't going to collect many points when some of the best players in the CHL are scoring at will off the rush or as the net-front PP guy when everything is just going in from the outside.

O'Reilly showed his value tonight. Just an absolute stud defensively and showed that 1st round skill when he had a chance.

A stat that can tell the story in these situations is IPP. It tells you the percentage of points a player receives when a goal is scored when they are on the ice. Great players dominate puck possession. When you are on the ice with a guy like McDavid for example he has the puck so much that if a goal is scored he is going to almost always get a point. His all situation IPP is about 80%. Moreover, because of his ability to generate his own opportunities a larger percentage of the points he is in on are goals with only one assist. That means that when you play with McDavid more goals are scored but you may be in on a far fewer percentage of those than you would driving your own line. This is what is happening with O'Reilly when he plays with Dickinson and the Knights big boys.

 

[Spawn]

A stat that can tell the story in these situations is IPP. It tells you the percentage of points a player receives when a goal is scored when they are on the ice. Great players dominate puck possession. When you are on the ice with a guy like McDavid for example he has the puck so much that if a goal is scored he is going to almost always get a point. His all situation IPP is about 80%. Moreover, because of his ability to generate his own opportunities a larger percentage of the points he is in on are goals with only one assist. That means that when you play with McDavid more goals are scored but you may be in on a far fewer percentage of those than you would driving your own line. This is what is happening with O'Reilly when he plays with Dickinson and the Knights big boys.

This all sounds a bit dubious to me. Just regarding the bold for example, of McDavids 132 points last year, 111 of them three players got a point on the goal (84%). Compare that to the entire league where 78% of goals scored had two assists. So plays with McDavid were more likely to end up with two assists than the average goal.

And while an elite player might have an unusually high IPP, that would presumably be balanced out by the sheer number of goals that are being scored while they’re on the ice.

 

[Fourier]

This all sounds a bit dubious to me. Just regarding the bold for example, of McDavids 132 points last year, 111 of them three players got a point on the goal (84%). Compare that to the entire league where 78% of goals scored had two assists. So plays with McDavid were more likely to end up with two assists than the average goal.

And while an elite player might have an unusually high IPP, that would presumably be balanced out by the sheer number of goals that are being scored while they’re on the ice.

I should have been more careful in what I stated. My refence was based on stats I put together about two years ago and was for to ES points. Here are the numbers for McDavid ES over the last 5 years in terms of percentage of points with two assists.

2023-24 79.3%
2022-23 75%
2021-22 75,6%
2020-21 71.8%
2019-20 76.5%

It would be interesting to see how that 78% was calculated. On thing to note is that SH goals tend to have fewer assists awarded by a significant amount. For example in these five years McDavid had 9 SH points and 7 of them had one or fewer assist. And over this period there were was 1 4 vs 5 GF for ever 5 vs 5 GF. So it is very likely that the ES points with two or more assists typically exceeds 80%.

Just for comparison lets look at Kucherov over the last few years ES.

Kucherov

2023-24 82.4%
2022-23 84.1%
2021-22 76.9%
2020-21 Did not play
2019-20 78.3%

 

[North]

Beau Akey with an assist today.

Sam O’Reilly with the shootout winner today.

 

[McDNicks17]

 

[Scrapin Ice]

Watching some of the london knights game. Sam O'Really played an excellent defensive game in the parts i saw. That shootout goal just the cream on the top of his game today.

 

[Fourier]

Watching some of the london knights game. Sam O'Really played an excellent defensive game in the parts i saw. That shootout goal just the cream on the top of his game today.

I am pretty sure that they drafted him because of his ability to play a mature 200 ft game. It's not like the team is lacking in offensive centers. The top two are pretty solid options for the next 8 years I'd say.

My guess is that they see a lot of Ryan O'Reilly in him. ROR did not exactly light it up either and was able to step in and play in his D+1 year because of his mature game. Now ROR did find his offensive side and I suspect that the Oilers hope that SOR will as well. But right now in London that is not his focus even though he does have skill.

 

[CupofOil]

I am pretty sure that they drafted him because of his ability to play a mature 200 ft game. It's not like the team is lacking in offensive centers. The top two are pretty solid options for the next 8 years I'd say.

My guess is that they see a lot of Ryan O'Reilly in him. ROR did not exactly light it up either and was able to step in and play in his D+1 year because of his mature game. Now ROR did find his offensive side and I suspect that the Oilers hope that SOR will as well. But right now in London that is not his focus even though he does have skill.

I've been hard on Sam O'Reilly but his offensive numbers aren't that dissimilar to Ryan in their respective 2nd years in junior so it's not that alarming I suppose BUT Ryan O'Reilly is an exception to the rule. Guys that are at or less than a PPG in junior in their draft and draft+1 years generally don't pan out as anything more than 4th liners so we'll see, there's a lot of season left to play but I'd like to see those numbers bumped up in the second half.

 

[Fourier]

I've been hard on Sam O'Reilly but his offensive numbers aren't that dissimilar to Ryan in their respective 2nd years in junior so it's not that alarming I suppose BUT Ryan O'Reilly is an exception to the rule. Guys that are at or less than a PPG in junior in their draft and draft+1 years generally don't pan out as anything more than 4th liners so we'll see, there's a lot of season left to play but I'd like to see those numbers bumped up in the second half.

The circumstances are pretty exceptional. Probably 99% of first round forwards drafted out of the OHL would be already primarily in offense first roles. As @McDNicks17 has stated the London situation is rather unique especially when you look at what Dickinson is doing.

Drafting for defense in a Round one forward is pretty rare. In part because most teams really want their 1st rounders to become top sixers. In the Oilers case, they are probably hoping to get an elite defensive 3rd line center with the added bonus of some skill. That is basically what ROR was seen as. (ROR went #33 by the way which is pretty much where SOR went.) He's obviously not a monster like Lowery but if you can get an elite defensive 3rd line center it can really help your team win. Lowrey of course was not a first round pick. But O'Reilly also has shown a lot better offensive chops than a guy like Lowery did at the same age.

 

[McDNicks17]

I've been hard on Sam O'Reilly but his offensive numbers aren't that dissimilar to Ryan in their respective 2nd years in junior so it's not that alarming I suppose BUT Ryan O'Reilly is an exception to the rule. Guys that are at or less than a PPG in junior in their draft and draft+1 years generally don't pan out as anything more than 4th liners so we'll see, there's a lot of season left to play but I'd like to see those numbers bumped up in the second half.

Keep in mind Ryan put up those numbers in a far different role. He projected as a third liner, but he was getting 1st line minutes and prime PP minutes.

Sam putting up the points he has is pretty impressive considering the role.

 

[jukon]

What happened to investing in player development? Oilers hired more people to do nothing?

Just wondering, does Max play right wing currently or left wing? I know some Russian wingers prefer to play their opposite side, but Oilers don't seem to like that. Like Podz is listed as a left shot RW, but we only seen to deploy him on the left side.

 

[BarDownBobo]

I am pretty sure that they drafted him because of his ability to play a mature 200 ft game. It's not like the team is lacking in offensive centers. The top two are pretty solid options for the next 8 years I'd say.

My guess is that they see a lot of Ryan O'Reilly in him. ROR did not exactly light it up either and was able to step in and play in his D+1 year because of his mature game. Now ROR did find his offensive side and I suspect that the Oilers hope that SOR will as well. But right now in London that is not his focus even though he does have skill.

It reminds me a lot of when Ryan McLeod was traded to Saginaw in his Draft+1 year. They had some elite offensive talent with Perfetti, Tippet and Bode Wilde on the back end so he was never going to get the prime opportunities to put up points. Stat watchers saw him put up only 24 points in 31 regular season games and 12 in 17 playoff and started to panic. But in reality he was working on the skills to become a good 3C that we saw flashes of here. O’Reilly is in a similar spot, but the Knights are much deeper up front than Saginaw was that year. And realistically if O’Reilly turns into a right handed McLeod who’s better on faceoffs and more willing to grind and get to the dirty areas(which we already saw he was during the preseason) I think that’s a very successful pick who could fill a very valuable role 2-3 years down the line.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

It reminds me a lot of when Ryan McLeod was traded to Saginaw in his Draft+1 year. They had some elite offensive talent with Perfetti, Tippet and Bode Wilde on the back end so he was never going to get the prime opportunities to put up points. Stat watchers saw him put up only 24 points in 31 regular season games and 12 in 17 playoff and started to panic. But in reality he was working on the skills to become a good 3C that we saw flashes of here. O’Reilly is in a similar spot, but the Knights are much deeper up front than Saginaw was that year. And realistically if O’Reilly turns into a right handed McLeod who’s better on faceoffs and more willing to grind and get to the dirty areas(which we already saw he was during the preseason) I think that’s a very successful pick who could fill a very valuable role 2-3 years down the line.

Pacey is the scout who drafted Scott Lawton for the Flyers. I think Lawton is a better player comp and projection for O'Reilly. They have similar size and their baseline games are solid 200 foot players who compete in the battle areas with strong defense awareness. Versatility as centre/wings with greasy play style. A big difference is O'Reilly is a converted defenseman who's only beginning to establish his game as a centre/wing ... and on a stacked junior team.

Point production won't tell the whole story with this player. It will be in monitoring the scope of his ice-time including first unit PK, deployment in critical situational play (closing out games, protecting leads, taking those face-offs, etc.) and growing his EV scoring while fighting his way into PP minutes with more advanced, offensive specialists ahead of him. He will be looked to grow into one of those glue guy 3C players that help protect leads and can provide support offense running behind two super elites. A slow cook prospect with quite likely two full years of junior and an AHL finishing school year to follow.

Lawton's draft scouting overview: Scott Laughton | Scott Laughton Profile | Scott Laughton Scouting Report 2012

EDIT: Just to add this is a textbook player and pedigree guy that the Oilers new Development Team will prioritize to work with in terms of skill, mental, strength and conditioning.

 

[BarDownBobo]

Pacey is the scout who drafted Scott Lawton for the Flyers. I think Lawton is a better player comp and projection for O'Reilly. They have similar size and their baseline games are solid 200 foot players who compete in the battle areas with strong defense awareness. Versatility as centre/wings with greasy play style. A big difference is O'Reilly is a converted defenseman who's only beginning to establish his game as a centre/wing ... and on a stacked junior team.

Point production won't tell the whole story with this player. It will be in monitoring the scope of his ice-time including first unit PK, deployment in critical situational play (closing out games, protecting leads, taking those face-offs, etc.) and growing his EV scoring while fighting his way into PP minutes with more advanced, offensive specialists ahead of him. He will be looked to grow into one of those glue guy 3C players that help protect leads and can provide support offense running behind two super elites. A slow cook prospect with quite likely two full years of junior and an AHL finishing school year to follow.

Lawton's draft scouting overview: Scott Laughton | Scott Laughton Profile | Scott Laughton Scouting Report 2012

EDIT: Just to add this is a textbook player and pedigree guy that the Oilers new Development Team will prioritize to work with in terms of skill, mental, strength and conditioning.

Laughton is a great stylistic comparison. My reference to McLeod was mainly a comparison to the the production/situation that O’Reilly is getting in the OHL this year. I remember the same kind of panic when McLeod didn’t put up huge numbers in the OHL as well, and then we saw what he became. Just figured it was a good reference since it’s someone we’ve seen come through here recently. Definitely a lot more to the story than the stats tell.

 

[McMoMoney29]

I do like what I see from the clips of O’Reilly and am definitely rooting for him, I just believe at this point if he pans out his trajectory to this point will be an anomaly. Not saying impossible at all. I don’t love the McLeod comparisons just because he was a bit later of a pick, we didn’t trade up for him at the time of the pick if I recall, as well as Im
not sure I can call McLeod much more than a 4th line centre/Pk specialist, which is what you’d expect from great skating but barely ppg player in junior.

 

[McMoMoney29]

It better be untrue that not a single person in our organization has reached out to one of our top prospects about his future with the team. Ridiculous, we’ve always had stupid non-proactive dinosaurs running the organization.

 

[McMoMoney29]

It better be untrue that not a single person in our organization has reached out to one of our top prospects about his future with the team. Ridiculous, we’ve always had stupid non-proactive dinosaurs running the organization.

Maybe an overreaction by me but I hated seeing what happened with Matej Blumel even if he doesn’t make much of an impact at the NHL level.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I do like what I see from the clips of O’Reilly and am definitely rooting for him, I just believe at this point if he pans out his trajectory to this point will be an anomaly. Not saying impossible at all. I don’t love the McLeod comparisons just because he was a bit later of a pick, we didn’t trade up for him at the time of the pick if I recall, as well as Im
not sure I can call McLeod much more than a 4th line centre/Pk specialist, which is what you’d expect from great skating but barely ppg player in junior.

McLeod was drafted 8 spots behind where O’Reilly was

 

[Fourier]

McLeod was drafted 8 spots behind where O’Reilly was

And the difference between 32 and 40 is essentially trivial in terms of what one would expect from the player historically. In either slot if you get an NHL player it is a win. To get anyone who is actually a contributor is a big win.

16 32nd picks have played 200 NHL games. Of that group about 10 have been reasonably impactful. By comparison 21 players picked 40th overall have played 200 games and maybe 12 have been impactful.

 

[McMoMoney29]

And the difference between 32 and 40 is essentially trivial in terms of what one would expect from the player historically. In either slot if you get an NHL player it is a win. To get anyone who is actually a contributor is a big win.

16 32nd picks have played 200 NHL games. Of that group about 10 have been reasonably impactful. By comparison 21 players picked 40th overall have played 200 games and maybe 12 have been impactful.

Fair, maybe I’m overvaluing the draft pick side of it. I just don’t think I would trade up in a draft to grab a future McLeod at 32. Maybe that’s just me. I was ecstatic we got what we did for McLeod in the trade so maybe I’m just not a McLeod fan.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Keep in mind Ryan put up those numbers in a far different role. He projected as a third liner, but he was getting 1st line minutes and prime PP minutes.

Sam putting up the points he has is pretty impressive considering the role.

Ryan also did it in his draft year. He never went back to junior after he was drafted.

I've been hard on Sam O'Reilly but his offensive numbers aren't that dissimilar to Ryan in their respective 2nd years in junior so it's not that alarming I suppose BUT Ryan O'Reilly is an exception to the rule. Guys that are at or less than a PPG in junior in their draft and draft+1 years generally don't pan out as anything more than 4th liners so we'll see, there's a lot of season left to play but I'd like to see those numbers bumped up in the second half.

Ryan was in the NHL in his draft year+1