Rosenthal: Why Jays may not make sense for Juan Soto, the case for Alex Bregman and more MLB notes - The Athletic
Guerrero, 25, and shortstop Bo Bichette, 26, could hit the open market after next season. Baseball America last August ranked the Jays’ farm system 23rd and The Athletic’s Keith Law had Toronto’s system as the 20th-best.
In the American League East, the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles were playoff teams last season. The Tampa Bay Rays are always competitive. And the Boston Red Sox are on the rise.
The uncertain futures of Jays president Mark Shapiro (signed through 2025) and general manager Ross Atkins (through ’26) only add to the questions surrounding the club and might be fueling its desire to make a splash. The Jays tried for Shohei Ohtani in free agency last offseason and Soto in a trade. And Shapiro and Atkins have made it clear they intend to keep pushing forward.
Soto’s appeal to the Jays, then, is obvious. A Soto-Guerrero left-right combination might not be quite as potent as Soto-Aaron Judge, but it wouldn’t be far off. Judge led the majors in OPS+ last season. Soto was third, Guerrero sixth. And here’s the most intriguing part: Guerrero is 4 1/2 months younger than Soto — and seven years younger than Judge.
People around the Jays praise Guerrero for his growth, citing his work ethic, his maturity, his leadership. Though his track record when it comes to performance is a bit inconsistent — 2022 and ’23 were down years, by his standards — he is precisely the kind of player teams build around. The kind of player who would be in heavy demand as a free agent next offseason, even if first basemen generally do not fare as well in the open market as players at more valuable defensive positions.
Perhaps Guerrero is telling the Jays, “Find some players to put around me, and then I’ll consider staying.” Perhaps Soto, Anthony Santander and other Jays free-agent targets are saying, “Sign Vlad Jr., and then we’ll talk.” In which case, the Jays are stuck between a rock and a hard place — an impossible position, but one of their own making.
If you’re Soto, you know this much: Guerrero had a .940 OPS last season and the Jays won 74 games.
The Mets, Yankees and Red Sox offer a higher floor. Other teams do, too. You’re going to get your money. And you can get it from a team in better shape than the Jays.