2024-25 Kraken Roster discussion

[majormajor]

I checked out our on-ice stats from the last 40 games.

Some slight surprises:

The results with Burakovsky on the ice have been fine - that's largely because his linemates have been shooting at a high percentage, perhaps unsustainably. But either way I was expecting some nightmare on-ice results and it isn't like that.

Shane Wright isn't getting easy shifts at all, low offensive zone start deployment. And he's winning the matchup out there vs his opposing centers (meaning the club is outscoring them with Shane on the ice). That's really good news since he's still so young. The on-ice shooting percentage is high, largely thanks to Shane himself shooting so well, and though a lot of folks will scream "unsustainable" I think if there's one guy who can keep that up it's him, his shooting talent is insane. He will have to shoot more, and we'll need to see him play a lot more minutes.

Stephenson has been getting fine on-ice goal results after an atrocious start. Although his xG% is still atrocious. We're mostly playing in our end when he's out there, trying to score on the rush and then ending back in our end.

Beniers and Kakko are the line underperforming their xGs. But it's largely from the on-ice save percentage, and that can very often just be on the goalie. Sometimes it's the team defense but it's often not. So they could end up getting better results there. They have been getting respectable xGs - not good at ~47% but not bad given the team context. Nobody on the Kraken is winning the chance battle, being above 50% in xG.

 

[The Marquis]

I checked out our on-ice stats from the last 40 games.

Some slight surprises:

The results with Burakovsky on the ice have been fine - that's largely because his linemates have been shooting at a high percentage, perhaps unsustainably. But either way I was expecting some nightmare on-ice results and it isn't like that.

Shane Wright isn't getting easy shifts at all, low offensive zone start deployment. And he's winning the matchup out there vs his opposing centers (meaning the club is outscoring them with Shane on the ice). That's really good news since he's still so young. The on-ice shooting percentage is high, largely thanks to Shane himself shooting so well, and though a lot of folks will scream "unsustainable" I think if there's one guy who can keep that up it's him, his shooting talent is insane. He will have to shoot more, and we'll need to see him play a lot more minutes.

Stephenson has been getting fine on-ice goal results after an atrocious start. Although his xG% is still atrocious. We're mostly playing in our end when he's out there, trying to score on the rush and then ending back in our end.

Beniers and Kakko are the line underperforming their xGs. But it's largely from the on-ice save percentage, and that can very often just be on the goalie. Sometimes it's the team defense but it's often not. So they could end up getting better results there. They have been getting respectable xGs - not good at ~47% but not bad given the team context. Nobody on the Kraken is winning the chance battle, being above 50% in xG.

It really doesn't look good when your entire team is under 50% xGF%. When you're looking at "good" meaning the least below 50%? ugh. It's gross and disappointing.

Stephenson has improved though, I can see that with the eye test. He probably needed time to develop his play within the system. It's been fine for what he is. He's CLEARLY creating offensive chances, which is something we apparently need desperately, but like you mention, that's leading to the us giving up the puck and it being played all the way back to our end. They aren't winning the transition game when he's on the ice. It's leading to a lot of chances against. That said, even that appears to have improved compared to where it was when we were last discussing this.

These stats are the stats of a bad team.

I am confused about what stats you're seeing from Burakovsky that are saying it isn't bad. It looks bad to me, just maybe not as bad as the eye test. The dude coughs up the puck like it's Covid.

 

[majormajor]

I am confused about what stats you're seeing from Burakovsky that are saying it isn't bad. It looks bad to me, just maybe not as bad as the eye test. The dude coughs up the puck like it's Covid.

When I say "results" I am talking about goals for and goals against, which is what we're ultimately concerned with. 27 GF and 23 GA are the results for Burakovsky. I say "results" to emphasize this is not a stat we are drawing inferences from like xG, it is the actual results that we care about.

That's a very good GF number for his minutes. Now granted, it's mostly not him doing it, it's his linemates having good shooting (right now Shane Wright). Burakovsky looks thoroughly cooked, and I think he really is. We've just been lucky his results haven't been worse.

 

[CLW]

It really doesn't look good when your entire team is under 50% xGF%. When you're looking at "good" meaning the least below 50%? ugh. It's gross and disappointing.

Stephenson has improved though, I can see that with the eye test. He probably needed time to develop his play within the system. It's been fine for what he is. He's CLEARLY creating offensive chances, which is something we apparently need desperately, but like you mention, that's leading to the us giving up the puck and it being played all the way back to our end. They aren't winning the transition game when he's on the ice. It's leading to a lot of chances against. That said, even that appears to have improved compared to where it was when we were last discussing this.

These stats are the stats of a bad team.

I am confused about what stats you're seeing from Burakovsky that are saying it isn't bad. It looks bad to me, just maybe not as bad as the eye test. The dude coughs up the puck like it's Covid.

Hand on heart I don't see Bylsma's game plan as NHL worthy. The good teams pick it off with ease when they gear up one notch. The Kraken looked good in the second period against post-TDL Philly the other day, but that was against an almost AHL team. Giving the opposing team as much time and space as the Kraken do under Bylsma is not the path to success.

The Beniers line has not looked good lately. They used to look somewhat cohesive, but now they are manically forechecking themselves out of position and leaving huge gaps for the oppo's to exploit (last night vs the Caps).

 

[The Marquis]

Hand on heart I don't see Bylsma's game plan as NHL worthy. The good teams pick it off with ease when they gear up one notch. The Kraken looked good in the second period against post-TDL Philly the other day, but that was against an almost AHL team. Giving the opposing team as much time and space as the Kraken do under Bylsma is not the path to success.

The Beniers line has not looked good lately. They used to look somewhat cohesive, but now they are manically forechecking themselves out of position and leaving huge gaps for the oppo's to exploit (last night vs the Caps).

I'm in agreement. I do not think Bylsma is the guy to lead this team to a better place.

 

[majormajor]

I am also not confident in Bylsma but the roster is so far from competing that I don't really care, we're not a coaching change away anything. But I suppose there are also good questions about whether he's the right coach for teaching the team how to win.

 

[CLW]

I am also not confident in Bylsma but the roster is so far from competing that I don't really care, we're not a coaching change away anything. But I suppose there are also good questions about whether he's the right coach for teaching the team how to win.

Yeah, might as well keep him for next season. Bura and Gru too.

e: Gotta give the guys the chance to bounce back [i.e. 2026 is a good draft year].

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Yeah, might as well keep him for next season. Bura and Gru too.

e: Gotta give the guys the chance to bounce back [i.e. 2026 is a good draft year].

This is something I am unsure of. Even if we are not competitive next season, do we want to establish a winnning mentality for the kids and the locker room. It is no problem at all, financially, to keep Bura or Gru on the roster. Will it be a bad influence on the kids and other vets. This team has looked like it has been going through its motions since before the end of the first half of the season. I would rather not that happen.

 

[CLW]

This is something I am unsure of. Even if we are not competitive next season, do we want to establish a winnning mentality for the kids and the locker room. It is no problem at all, financially, to keep Bura or Gru on the roster. Will it be a bad influence on the kids and other vets. This team has looked like it has been going through its motions since before the end of the first half of the season. I would rather not that happen.

It's some of the vets that are supposed to be core players that are the worst culprits. Not the kids, not Eberle, but some on D and some wingers and a certain C. Of course they are the ones that weren't shipped out at the TDL either, teams obviously wanted the good players. I don't think bringing in some new players (that will eventually block the up and coming kids from spots on the roster) is going to fix much. Once that mentality has set it it's like mold in the walls. It's better to ship the country club players out than try to augment them. But Francis will go the augmentation route I'm sure. He's going to trade picks and prospects and look at FA again for an immediate fix. A Wild Card is the Holy Grail for this franchise and as far as it's ambition goes (prove me wrong Francis).

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

It's some of the vets that are supposed to be core players that are the worst culprits. Not the kids, not Eberle, but some on D and some wingers and a certain C. Of course they are the ones that weren't shipped out at the TDL either, teams obviously wanted the good players. I don't think bringing in some new players (that will eventually block the up and coming kids from spots on the roster) is going to fix much. Once that mentality has set it it's like mold in the walls. It's better to ship the country club players out than try to augment them. But Francis will go the augmentation route I'm sure. He's going to trade picks and prospects and look at FA again for an immediate fix. A Wild Card is the Holy Grail for this franchise and as far as it's ambition goes (prove me wrong Francis).

Yep. I'm holding my breath to see what the "immediate fix" is that will get us to the playoffs. I expect a significant amount of money to be directed toward Bennett because of his cup experience and size/grit. From a trade perspective, my lack of knowledge about other teams' wants and needs makes it difficult to identify which teams have interesting forward pieces we could acquire.

For some reason, I suddenly thought about us trading for Pasta in the off-season. For a deal like that, I would make everyone available except Catton, Wright, and Beniers. Again, I'm not advocating for a trade for Pasta, but he may be one of the few wingers worth more than his contract. If Francis trades our assets for a game-changing player, I would be less upset than if he signs someone like Ehlers in free agency and trades for a bottom-six energy guy. I'm not criticizing Ehlers; he is a very good player, but he isn't immediate help.

However, if you can pull off something like that while buying out Bura and Gru, this team will be immediately competitive.

Kakko-Beniers-Pastrnak
Schwartz-Wright-Bennett
Tolvy-Stephenson-Eberle

- Buy out Gru and Bura (or trade them with retention if another GM is foolish enough).
- Trade McCann to create cap space for Bennett and Pasternak.

Is it perfect? Heck no.
Is it even great? Nope.
Do I even want this? Not really.

But if he does end up moving assets, he should acquire pieces that can influence the game, not just plug-ins and complementary players. Yes, it will cost assets, but at least it shows me that he is trying.

 

[CLW]

I agree with you, I think this is kind of what Francis has in mind. He has already talked along those lines and now we hear the Kraken were interested in Rantanen. What kind of package do you think they offered Carolina? The two Tampa 1st rounders + Kakko or Wright or Catton? What does this do to the morale of the kids?

This is the reason I hope Francis is fired as soon as the season is over, before he has time to seriously damage the franchise long term. So far he's been mediocre but hasn't done anything that cannot be overcome relatively easily. The Stephenson contract wasn't great but yeah it's not that huge of a ticking bomb. But if he signs even more declining cup satisfied country club inclined vets to huge, long term contracts those will be daggers of more than mediocrity, they will bet toxic daggers the wounds of which will fester. That's how you create a stinky mess that will take the next GM (or two or three GMs) many, many years to sort out.

Attempting expensive fake fixes is a good start to a long road of perdition. But, they promised the playoffs by year five, so I have no doubt they will throw as much (expensive) shit at the fan as they possibly can.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Saw Nyman got called up.
I hope he plays Wednesday.

 

[majormajor]

Yep. I'm holding my breath to see what the "immediate fix" is that will get us to the playoffs. I expect a significant amount of money to be directed toward Bennett because of his cup experience and size/grit. From a trade perspective, my lack of knowledge about other teams' wants and needs makes it difficult to identify which teams have interesting forward pieces we could acquire.

For some reason, I suddenly thought about us trading for Pasta in the off-season. For a deal like that, I would make everyone available except Catton, Wright, and Beniers. Again, I'm not advocating for a trade for Pasta, but he may be one of the few wingers worth more than his contract. If Francis trades our assets for a game-changing player, I would be less upset than if he signs someone like Ehlers in free agency and trades for a bottom-six energy guy. I'm not criticizing Ehlers; he is a very good player, but he isn't immediate help.

However, if you can pull off something like that while buying out Bura and Gru, this team will be immediately competitive.

Kakko-Beniers-Pastrnak
Schwartz-Wright-Bennett
Tolvy-Stephenson-Eberle

- Buy out Gru and Bura (or trade them with retention if another GM is foolish enough).
- Trade McCann to create cap space for Bennett and Pasternak.

Is it perfect? Heck no.
Is it even great? Nope.
Do I even want this? Not really.

But if he does end up moving assets, he should acquire pieces that can influence the game, not just plug-ins and complementary players. Yes, it will cost assets, but at least it shows me that he is trying.

We should absolutely be bidding on Pastrnak if he is available and open to coming here (he has full NMC), but I don't think we have the assets to do it if you're taking Beniers, Wright, and Catton off the table. I think we probably let them have their pick of any one player in our org and add some futures on top of that. Otherwise we're out of the bidding.

Dahlin actually doesn't have a NMC kick in until the summer, so if the reports of him getting disgruntled in Buffalo are true, it at least has some plausibility. And likewise we would be offering up our most valuable asset ++. As much as that stings you have to go for top ten talents whenever they are available, regardless of whether you're a contender or not. In Dahlin's case he doesn't have an NMC and he'd probably consider our ownership and market a big upgrade - so there is a bit of plausibility there, I'd have a harder time imagining Pastrnak coming here.

Bennett makes some sense, but then so does Ehlers. I'm not sure on what your criteria are here (immediate help??) and why you are okay spending big on one and not the other. Ehlers is the much better playdriver and scorer in the regular season, and you're using both as wingers.

I agree with you, I think this is kind of what Francis has in mind. He has already talked along those lines and now we hear the Kraken were interested in Rantanen. What kind of package do you think they offered Carolina? The two Tampa 1st rounders + Kakko or Wright or Catton? What does this do to the morale of the kids?

Not all teams interested in Rantanen made equivalent offers - we shouldn't get mad at Francis over an imaginary deal he offered. And the morale of the kids? Hockey players tend to get very excited when they see elite players like Rantanen join their club.

 

[CLW]

We should absolutely be bidding on Pastrnak if he is available and open to coming here (he has full NMC), but I don't think we have the assets to do it if you're taking Beniers, Wright, and Catton off the table. I think we probably let them have their pick of any one player in our org and add some futures on top of that. Otherwise we're out of the bidding.

Dahlin actually doesn't have a NMC kick in until the summer, so if the reports of him getting disgruntled in Buffalo are true, it at least has some plausibility. And likewise we would be offering up our most valuable asset ++. As much as that stings you have to go for top ten talents whenever they are available, regardless of whether you're a contender or not. In Dahlin's case he doesn't have an NMC and he'd probably consider our ownership and market a big upgrade - so there is a bit of plausibility there, I'd have a harder time imagining Pastrnak coming here.

Bennett makes some sense, but then so does Ehlers. I'm not sure on what your criteria are here (immediate help??) and why you are okay spending big on one and not the other. Ehlers is the much better playdriver and scorer in the regular season, and you're using both as wingers.



Not all teams interested in Rantanen made equivalent offers - we shouldn't get mad at Francis over an imaginary deal he offered. And the morale of the kids? Hockey players tend to get very excited when they see elite players like Rantanen join their club.

Re: Superstar

Rantanen was probably due diligence which is fine.

What I am opposed to is bringing in a superstar before the team is ready. Signing Gaudreau (or even Laine) did nothing for Columbus. Panarin signed with the Rangers and the NYR became the "Panarin Circus" yet never became a true contender. If this weak team got Pasta it would instantly become the "Pasta Show" - the team would improve to the point it would sniff around the WCs but never draft in a good position. Very top heavy but unbalanced teams rarely go all the way. (See Edmonton, Dallas etc)

Look at Columbus now, they are better balanced without Laine and Gaudreau. Florida added M. Tkachuk to the very solid team they already had. Vegas added Stone and Eichel to the very solid team they already had. Such moves are brilliant and obviously I'd have no problem with that. Tampa simply built their core and didn't need to add some superstar UFA which meant they had the cap to win twice (with a bit of cap massage *cough* Kucherov).

But yeah, the marketing and show business people LOVE the Panarins out there. Good for turning over the bucks... To me the important thing is to create a winner. I prefer the Florida, Vegas or Tampa approach over one of the side show teams. I don't want the Kraken to become a Sideshow. Do the job properly please. "The morale of the kids" part was from their perspective if the GM already dangles them as trade bait.

 

[CLW]

Re: balancing the squad

I'd look at giving a stud RFA an offersheet. The added picks Kraken got could be put to good use that way. St. Louis did it with Holloway and Broberg so it happens. Maybe it's not as effective now with the cap going up but you never know.

Re: Bennett. Overpaying for aging grit is rarely a good idea. Find the grit internally or trade for them when they are still young-ish and have their oomph. I wouldn't mind if the Kraken traded up to grab Aitcheson in the mid/later 1st round this year eg.

Re: Dahlin. To get him the Kraken would need to trade Dunn and use part of the return as the Kraken bid for Dahlin. That is doable. What is more of an issue is how happy Dahlin would be to join the Kraken. He'd want to join a ready made contender I'd imagine.

 

[majormajor]

Re: Superstar

Rantanen was probably due diligence which is fine.

What I am opposed to is bringing in a superstar before the team is ready. Signing Gaudreau (or even Laine) did nothing for Columbus. Panarin signed with the Rangers and the NYR became the "Panarin Circus" yet never became a true contender. If this weak team got Pasta it would instantly become the "Pasta Show" - the team would improve to the point it would sniff around the WCs but never draft in a good position. Very top heavy but unbalanced teams rarely go all the way. (See Edmonton, Dallas etc)

Look at Columbus now, they are better balanced without Laine and Gaudreau. Florida added M. Tkachuk to the very solid team they already had. Vegas added Stone and Eichel to the very solid team they already had. Such moves are brilliant and obviously I'd have no problem with that. Tampa simply built their core and didn't need to add some superstar UFA which meant they had the cap to win twice (with a bit of cap massage *cough* Kucherov).

But yeah, the marketing and show business people LOVE the Panarins out there. Good for turning over the bucks... To me the important thing is to create a winner. I prefer the Florida, Vegas or Tampa approach over one of the side show teams. I don't want the Kraken to become a Sideshow. Do the job properly please. "The morale of the kids" part was from their perspective if the GM already dangles them as trade bait.

I can tell you about Columbus which I know firsthand - Laine was just not a good player or teammate (the leadership tried to get rid of him and Jarmo chose Laine over them, which blew up the team). Gaudreau would absolutely be making them a better team this year if he was still with us. This year Werenski and Marchenko have ascended to superstar status, and they didn't get to that level by losing Gaudreau.

For the Rangers, they are not drafting top ten if Shesterkin is having a good year, whether they sign Panarin or not. His play meant they were at least in the middle of the league. And Kakko and Lafreniere not becoming star caliber players would have left the Rangers short of contender status whether they sign Panarin or not. Panarin wasn't what decided their progression. He just made them go from good to very good for a while.

Florida and Vegas are not great examples of teams being patient - they've moved just about everybody. Vegas has never been patient. And Florida was a middling team and very patient for a while until Zito came along and said YOLO.

I'm not persuaded it's easier to find elite talent by not adding a player like Pastrnak - yeah you're less likely to draft at the top but you'd consider yourself very very lucky if you turned your #3 pick into a Pastrnak caliber player. It's more sensible to just take Pastrnak himself if that's an option.

 

[kihei]

I'm not persuaded it's easier to find elite talent by not adding a player like Pastrnak - yeah you're less likely to draft at the top but you'd consider yourself very very lucky if you turned your #3 pick into a Pastrnak caliber player. It's more sensible to just take Pastrnak himself if that's an option.

Pasternak is 28 years old. What are we a Pasternak away from, anyway? I don't see the point of adding a star if it means mortgaging the future

 

[Kevinsane]

Pasternak is 28 years old. What are we a Pasternak away from, anyway? I don't see the point of adding a star if it means mortgaging the future

Agreed. Adding an expensive “name” player whose minutes are on the decline when you’re ready to truly compete just blocks other moves that aren’t as flashy but get you over the hump.

 

[majormajor]

Pasternak is 28 years old. What are we a Pasternak away from, anyway? I don't see the point of adding a star if it means mortgaging the future

He's 28 and odds are he'll be better than our next draft pick even when he is 34. We'd still love to get him in UFA if he was 31. Although a 24 year old like Dahlin would fit better, I'd agree on that.

We're not a player away from anything right now but our understanding of how teams will stack up in two or three years is very limited. People frequently overestimate their ability to predict how teams will stack up. There was a thread just a year and a half ago on which teams would be bottom five in five years. The most cited team was the Washington Capitals. The teams that aggressively pursue talent do often get rewarded.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I understand that we don't need to spend resources to acquire a superstar before our kids are "ready." However, bringing in a player of the caliber of Pasta or even Rantanen could be beneficial. If this were year one of the expansion, I would be completely against it. But as we enter year five, we have young players like Wright, Beniers, and Catton that we want to build around. Even if Wright and Beniers are two years away from reaching their "prime," Pasta or Rantanen would be 30 or 31, still in a strong position to perform at a superstar level for another 2-3 years. That plus having someone you can look up to within the team, can't hurt.

I am more opposed to signing someone like Bennett because players with his style tend to age poorly due to the physical nature of their play. However, he would address a need by adding size to the top six and providing the physical edge that our team currently lacks. This would be a Francis signing based on immediate needs. For me, if there is a move to be made this off-season, make it a good one. If you are giving up a good amount of cap-space and assets (for a trade), make sure it is someone who is actually a gamechanger.

 

[kihei]

I'd keep building through the draft. Our young core are still mostly potential. Wright looks like a major piece, Beniers is looking more like a complimentary piece, and we have no way of knowing how well Catton will fit in until he gets here. That is not enough of a core to build around. I can see trading assets for young players, but we need more blue chip prospects than we have got, especially on defense. Usually, though, you have to grow your own because few are available otherwise.

If you can sign a Rantanen, that seems less damaging to me than trading prospects and top players for a Pasternak. But trading top picks, especially high first rounders, seems a recipe for continual mediocrity. I thought that was what we all wanted to avoid.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I'd keep building through the draft. Our young core are still mostly potential. Wright looks like a major piece, Beniers is looking more like a complimentary piece, and we have no way of knowing how well Catton will fit in until he gets here. That is not enough of a core to build around. I can see trading assets for young players, but we need more blue chip prospects than we have got, especially on defense. Usually, though, you have to grow your own because few are available otherwise.

If you can sign a Rantanen, that seems less damaging to me than trading prospects and top players for a Pasternak. But trading top picks, especially high first rounders, seems a recipe for continual mediocrity. I thought that was what we all wanted to avoid.

Going into the 5th season and having to admit that we don't have a core yet is probably something Francis or the organization admits to. I don't think it is nearly enough of a core for a new expansion team going into its 5th year. But that is where, us fans, have the luxury of waiting as long as it takes to find that "superstar" that we want to build around. I am pretty sure you and I would be more than comfortable to be patient another 2-3 years.

Right or wrong, the organization is running out of patience. It's not like they have not been vocal about that. A lot of us feel that it is coming. Signing Marner, trading for Pasta or another high end forward is likely to happen. I listened to Francis' interview today and it is pretty clear that he is going all-in. He said we have 20M in cap space next season and we are going to be very close to the cap when its all said and done. He also bought up draft capital.

I am just hoping whoever he gets is actually good enough to drive play on their own and is not a complimentary piece who works great with better players.

 

[majormajor]

Right or wrong, the organization is running out of patience. It's not like they have not been vocal about that. A lot of us feel that it is coming. Signing Marner, trading for Pasta or another high end forward is likely to happen. I listened to Francis' interview today and it is pretty clear that he is going all-in. He said we have 20M in cap space next season and we are going to be very close to the cap when its all said and done. He also bought up draft capital.

It's likely that they're going to try to make it happen. For it to actually happen is a different matter. There are so many clubs with assets and wads of cap space who are also in the bidding. I'm concerned that we are going to head into it with a mandate to spend and end up stuck paying a superstar dollar amount for a non-superstar player.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Where do you guys see Nyman getting lined up today?

 

[The Marquis]

Where do you guys see Nyman getting lined up today?

I’d be surprised if he was getting decent minutes at all, so probably 4th line. It’s a trial to see how he does at the NHL level, likely with heavily sheltered minutes. I hope I’m wrong but previous promotions haven’t been different except for Wright and Kartye (but that was due to Eberle getting injured). Hell, even Wright was brought up a couple times and was playing 4-7 minutes a night before this season.