2024-25 Kraken Roster discussion

[majormajor]

I checked out our on-ice stats from the last 40 games.

Some slight surprises:

The results with Burakovsky on the ice have been fine - that's largely because his linemates have been shooting at a high percentage, perhaps unsustainably. But either way I was expecting some nightmare on-ice results and it isn't like that.

Shane Wright isn't getting easy shifts at all, low offensive zone start deployment. And he's winning the matchup out there vs his opposing centers (meaning the club is outscoring them with Shane on the ice). That's really good news since he's still so young. The on-ice shooting percentage is high, largely thanks to Shane himself shooting so well, and though a lot of folks will scream "unsustainable" I think if there's one guy who can keep that up it's him, his shooting talent is insane. He will have to shoot more, and we'll need to see him play a lot more minutes.

Stephenson has been getting fine on-ice goal results after an atrocious start. Although his xG% is still atrocious. We're mostly playing in our end when he's out there, trying to score on the rush and then ending back in our end.

Beniers and Kakko are the line underperforming their xGs. But it's largely from the on-ice save percentage, and that can very often just be on the goalie. Sometimes it's the team defense but it's often not. So they could end up getting better results there. They have been getting respectable xGs - not good at ~47% but not bad given the team context. Nobody on the Kraken is winning the chance battle, being above 50% in xG.

 

[The Marquis]

I checked out our on-ice stats from the last 40 games.

Some slight surprises:

The results with Burakovsky on the ice have been fine - that's largely because his linemates have been shooting at a high percentage, perhaps unsustainably. But either way I was expecting some nightmare on-ice results and it isn't like that.

Shane Wright isn't getting easy shifts at all, low offensive zone start deployment. And he's winning the matchup out there vs his opposing centers (meaning the club is outscoring them with Shane on the ice). That's really good news since he's still so young. The on-ice shooting percentage is high, largely thanks to Shane himself shooting so well, and though a lot of folks will scream "unsustainable" I think if there's one guy who can keep that up it's him, his shooting talent is insane. He will have to shoot more, and we'll need to see him play a lot more minutes.

Stephenson has been getting fine on-ice goal results after an atrocious start. Although his xG% is still atrocious. We're mostly playing in our end when he's out there, trying to score on the rush and then ending back in our end.

Beniers and Kakko are the line underperforming their xGs. But it's largely from the on-ice save percentage, and that can very often just be on the goalie. Sometimes it's the team defense but it's often not. So they could end up getting better results there. They have been getting respectable xGs - not good at ~47% but not bad given the team context. Nobody on the Kraken is winning the chance battle, being above 50% in xG.

It really doesn't look good when your entire team is under 50% xGF%. When you're looking at "good" meaning the least below 50%? ugh. It's gross and disappointing.

Stephenson has improved though, I can see that with the eye test. He probably needed time to develop his play within the system. It's been fine for what he is. He's CLEARLY creating offensive chances, which is something we apparently need desperately, but like you mention, that's leading to the us giving up the puck and it being played all the way back to our end. They aren't winning the transition game when he's on the ice. It's leading to a lot of chances against. That said, even that appears to have improved compared to where it was when we were last discussing this.

These stats are the stats of a bad team.

I am confused about what stats you're seeing from Burakovsky that are saying it isn't bad. It looks bad to me, just maybe not as bad as the eye test. The dude coughs up the puck like it's Covid.

 

[majormajor]

I am confused about what stats you're seeing from Burakovsky that are saying it isn't bad. It looks bad to me, just maybe not as bad as the eye test. The dude coughs up the puck like it's Covid.

When I say "results" I am talking about goals for and goals against, which is what we're ultimately concerned with. 27 GF and 23 GA are the results for Burakovsky. I say "results" to emphasize this is not a stat we are drawing inferences from like xG, it is the actual results that we care about.

That's a very good GF number for his minutes. Now granted, it's mostly not him doing it, it's his linemates having good shooting (right now Shane Wright). Burakovsky looks thoroughly cooked, and I think he really is. We've just been lucky his results haven't been worse.

 

[CLW]

It really doesn't look good when your entire team is under 50% xGF%. When you're looking at "good" meaning the least below 50%? ugh. It's gross and disappointing.

Stephenson has improved though, I can see that with the eye test. He probably needed time to develop his play within the system. It's been fine for what he is. He's CLEARLY creating offensive chances, which is something we apparently need desperately, but like you mention, that's leading to the us giving up the puck and it being played all the way back to our end. They aren't winning the transition game when he's on the ice. It's leading to a lot of chances against. That said, even that appears to have improved compared to where it was when we were last discussing this.

These stats are the stats of a bad team.

I am confused about what stats you're seeing from Burakovsky that are saying it isn't bad. It looks bad to me, just maybe not as bad as the eye test. The dude coughs up the puck like it's Covid.

Hand on heart I don't see Bylsma's game plan as NHL worthy. The good teams pick it off with ease when they gear up one notch. The Kraken looked good in the second period against post-TDL Philly the other day, but that was against an almost AHL team. Giving the opposing team as much time and space as the Kraken do under Bylsma is not the path to success.

The Beniers line has not looked good lately. They used to look somewhat cohesive, but now they are manically forechecking themselves out of position and leaving huge gaps for the oppo's to exploit (last night vs the Caps).

 

[The Marquis]

Hand on heart I don't see Bylsma's game plan as NHL worthy. The good teams pick it off with ease when they gear up one notch. The Kraken looked good in the second period against post-TDL Philly the other day, but that was against an almost AHL team. Giving the opposing team as much time and space as the Kraken do under Bylsma is not the path to success.

The Beniers line has not looked good lately. They used to look somewhat cohesive, but now they are manically forechecking themselves out of position and leaving huge gaps for the oppo's to exploit (last night vs the Caps).

I'm in agreement. I do not think Bylsma is the guy to lead this team to a better place.

 

[majormajor]

I am also not confident in Bylsma but the roster is so far from competing that I don't really care, we're not a coaching change away anything. But I suppose there are also good questions about whether he's the right coach for teaching the team how to win.

 

[CLW]

I am also not confident in Bylsma but the roster is so far from competing that I don't really care, we're not a coaching change away anything. But I suppose there are also good questions about whether he's the right coach for teaching the team how to win.

Yeah, might as well keep him for next season. Bura and Gru too.

e: Gotta give the guys the chance to bounce back [i.e. 2026 is a good draft year].

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Yeah, might as well keep him for next season. Bura and Gru too.

e: Gotta give the guys the chance to bounce back [i.e. 2026 is a good draft year].

This is something I am unsure of. Even if we are not competitive next season, do we want to establish a winnning mentality for the kids and the locker room. It is no problem at all, financially, to keep Bura or Gru on the roster. Will it be a bad influence on the kids and other vets. This team has looked like it has been going through its motions since before the end of the first half of the season. I would rather not that happen.

 

[CLW]

This is something I am unsure of. Even if we are not competitive next season, do we want to establish a winnning mentality for the kids and the locker room. It is no problem at all, financially, to keep Bura or Gru on the roster. Will it be a bad influence on the kids and other vets. This team has looked like it has been going through its motions since before the end of the first half of the season. I would rather not that happen.

It's some of the vets that are supposed to be core players that are the worst culprits. Not the kids, not Eberle, but some on D and some wingers and a certain C. Of course they are the ones that weren't shipped out at the TDL either, teams obviously wanted the good players. I don't think bringing in some new players (that will eventually block the up and coming kids from spots on the roster) is going to fix much. Once that mentality has set it it's like mold in the walls. It's better to ship the country club players out than try to augment them. But Francis will go the augmentation route I'm sure. He's going to trade picks and prospects and look at FA again for an immediate fix. A Wild Card is the Holy Grail for this franchise and as far as it's ambition goes (prove me wrong Francis).

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

It's some of the vets that are supposed to be core players that are the worst culprits. Not the kids, not Eberle, but some on D and some wingers and a certain C. Of course they are the ones that weren't shipped out at the TDL either, teams obviously wanted the good players. I don't think bringing in some new players (that will eventually block the up and coming kids from spots on the roster) is going to fix much. Once that mentality has set it it's like mold in the walls. It's better to ship the country club players out than try to augment them. But Francis will go the augmentation route I'm sure. He's going to trade picks and prospects and look at FA again for an immediate fix. A Wild Card is the Holy Grail for this franchise and as far as it's ambition goes (prove me wrong Francis).

Yep. I'm holding my breath to see what the "immediate fix" is that will get us to the playoffs. I expect a significant amount of money to be directed toward Bennett because of his cup experience and size/grit. From a trade perspective, my lack of knowledge about other teams' wants and needs makes it difficult to identify which teams have interesting forward pieces we could acquire.

For some reason, I suddenly thought about us trading for Pasta in the off-season. For a deal like that, I would make everyone available except Catton, Wright, and Beniers. Again, I'm not advocating for a trade for Pasta, but he may be one of the few wingers worth more than his contract. If Francis trades our assets for a game-changing player, I would be less upset than if he signs someone like Ehlers in free agency and trades for a bottom-six energy guy. I'm not criticizing Ehlers; he is a very good player, but he isn't immediate help.

However, if you can pull off something like that while buying out Bura and Gru, this team will be immediately competitive.

Kakko-Beniers-Pastrnak
Schwartz-Wright-Bennett
Tolvy-Stephenson-Eberle

- Buy out Gru and Bura (or trade them with retention if another GM is foolish enough).
- Trade McCann to create cap space for Bennett and Pasternak.

Is it perfect? Heck no.
Is it even great? Nope.
Do I even want this? Not really.

But if he does end up moving assets, he should acquire pieces that can influence the game, not just plug-ins and complementary players. Yes, it will cost assets, but at least it shows me that he is trying.

 

[CLW]

I agree with you, I think this is kind of what Francis has in mind. He has already talked along those lines and now we hear the Kraken were interested in Rantanen. What kind of package do you think they offered Carolina? The two Tampa 1st rounders + Kakko or Wright or Catton? What does this do to the morale of the kids?

This is the reason I hope Francis is fired as soon as the season is over, before he has time to seriously damage the franchise long term. So far he's been mediocre but hasn't done anything that cannot be overcome relatively easily. The Stephenson contract wasn't great but yeah it's not that huge of a ticking bomb. But if he signs even more declining cup satisfied country club inclined vets to huge, long term contracts those will be daggers of more than mediocrity, they will bet toxic daggers the wounds of which will fester. That's how you create a stinky mess that will take the next GM (or two or three GMs) many, many years to sort out.

Attempting expensive fake fixes is a good start to a long road of perdition. But, they promised the playoffs by year five, so I have no doubt they will throw as much (expensive) shit at the fan as they possibly can.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Saw Nyman got called up.
I hope he plays Wednesday.

 

[majormajor]

Yep. I'm holding my breath to see what the "immediate fix" is that will get us to the playoffs. I expect a significant amount of money to be directed toward Bennett because of his cup experience and size/grit. From a trade perspective, my lack of knowledge about other teams' wants and needs makes it difficult to identify which teams have interesting forward pieces we could acquire.

For some reason, I suddenly thought about us trading for Pasta in the off-season. For a deal like that, I would make everyone available except Catton, Wright, and Beniers. Again, I'm not advocating for a trade for Pasta, but he may be one of the few wingers worth more than his contract. If Francis trades our assets for a game-changing player, I would be less upset than if he signs someone like Ehlers in free agency and trades for a bottom-six energy guy. I'm not criticizing Ehlers; he is a very good player, but he isn't immediate help.

However, if you can pull off something like that while buying out Bura and Gru, this team will be immediately competitive.

Kakko-Beniers-Pastrnak
Schwartz-Wright-Bennett
Tolvy-Stephenson-Eberle

- Buy out Gru and Bura (or trade them with retention if another GM is foolish enough).
- Trade McCann to create cap space for Bennett and Pasternak.

Is it perfect? Heck no.
Is it even great? Nope.
Do I even want this? Not really.

But if he does end up moving assets, he should acquire pieces that can influence the game, not just plug-ins and complementary players. Yes, it will cost assets, but at least it shows me that he is trying.

We should absolutely be bidding on Pastrnak if he is available and open to coming here (he has full NMC), but I don't think we have the assets to do it if you're taking Beniers, Wright, and Catton off the table. I think we probably let them have their pick of any one player in our org and add some futures on top of that. Otherwise we're out of the bidding.

Dahlin actually doesn't have a NMC kick in until the summer, so if the reports of him getting disgruntled in Buffalo are true, it at least has some plausibility. And likewise we would be offering up our most valuable asset ++. As much as that stings you have to go for top ten talents whenever they are available, regardless of whether you're a contender or not. In Dahlin's case he doesn't have an NMC and he'd probably consider our ownership and market a big upgrade - so there is a bit of plausibility there, I'd have a harder time imagining Pastrnak coming here.

Bennett makes some sense, but then so does Ehlers. I'm not sure on what your criteria are here (immediate help??) and why you are okay spending big on one and not the other. Ehlers is the much better playdriver and scorer in the regular season, and you're using both as wingers.

I agree with you, I think this is kind of what Francis has in mind. He has already talked along those lines and now we hear the Kraken were interested in Rantanen. What kind of package do you think they offered Carolina? The two Tampa 1st rounders + Kakko or Wright or Catton? What does this do to the morale of the kids?

Not all teams interested in Rantanen made equivalent offers - we shouldn't get mad at Francis over an imaginary deal he offered. And the morale of the kids? Hockey players tend to get very excited when they see elite players like Rantanen join their club.