Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

[MCB]

Who might we ship out at the deadline? I know we are starting to turn the corner (if that's what the vatrano extension means) but I still think dumo should go at the deadline, no more scratching minty and zell.

I think we should be doing a combination at the deadline, ship off the players we don't need for long term, and if we buy it shouldn't be for rentals, but as @All Mighty above me said more long term fits or buy low candidates.

 

[McDonald19]

Who might we ship out at the deadline? I know we are starting to turn the corner (if that's what the vatrano extension means) but I still think dumo should go at the deadline, no more scratching minty and zell.

Dumoulin and Fabbri. The two remaining retention slots should be used on them.

Other possibilities: McGinn, Lundestrom, Leason

 

[LuGBuG]

Dumoulin and Fabbri. The two remaining retention slots should be used on them.

Other possibilities: McGinn, Lundestrom, Leason

I want to keep Fabbri personally

 

[MCB]

Dumoulin and Fabbri. The two remaining retention slots should be used on them.

Other possibilities: McGinn, Lundestrom, Leason

I figured fabbri would be on the list, I just like his game so much. It reminds me of an angry Chihuahua, like the Chihuahua doesn't care the size of the other dogs, it'll go after poodle the same as a Rottweiler, that's how I see his game, he just goes 100% against anyone. Probably why he gets injured often lol

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If Verbeek is a buyer this deadline, he needs to be fired

No one is suggesting he buy rentals…. But if he can find a good fit with term or find a player he can extend or at least talk about extension with
He should be all over that

 

[Hey234]

Friedman on his podcast today said the price for Gibson is sky high. Nothing necessarily new but confirmation that Verbeek is staying with his value assessment for Gibson. Based on the way he's played, hard to argue. I would rather keep him.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I hear what you're saying, but I don't think it's going to be the slippery slope you think it is. A vast majority of players are going to want their money up front. I can't see a trend of players deferring a bunch of salary. As someone said above, this probably applies mostly to the mid-tier free agents who are signing their last big contract and are willing to get creative to earn a bit more from cap-strapped teams.

The second thing is that I see this as a leveler for the California teams. If you're in Florida or Nevada, you want that money now so that you're paying no tax. Then you can take your earnings and live elsewhere once you retire. If you're in California but planning to retire elsewhere, it makes more sense to defer that money so the tax rate is less when that money is coming in.

If anything, I could see the Ducks using this with more free agents to get them in the door despite the tax disadvantage.

The Canadian teams are the definition of high taxes. Toronto would be able to pack in several more players with this stunt instead of being stuck with their obvious deficiencies.

 

[Ducksforcup]

If Verbeek is a buyer this deadline, he needs to be fired

Why? Would be a great message to the group and it's not like they can't use more offensive players. We don't need more draft picks.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Friedman on his podcast today said the price for Gibson is sky high. Nothing necessarily new but confirmation that Verbeek is staying with his value assessment for Gibson. Based on the way he's played, hard to argue. I would rather keep him.

I mean we need a 2nd goalie regardless…. So I don’t think we’re dying to move gibson. Teams going to have to come to us with right offer or we just keep gibson and dostal as the 2 headed monster

Gibsons overall played much better this year than in previous years too

 

[robbieboy3686]

I want to keep Fabbri personally

To many injuries unfortunately

 

[Leonardo87]

Rather keep Gibby at this point. If the forward kids can get going, this team could be in a playoff spot, by the end of this month. Goaltending has been among the top in the league here. Defense has been better but still not there yet.

They are getting offense from the Vet line now, which is great. But if they can get Leo, Z(when he gets back), Mac, and Cutter going would be huge for this team, and can give the goaltending some goal support and put less pressure on them.

 

[TheStuntman]

I agree trade Fabbri, always seems close to getting injured.

 

[Hey234]

Friedman also said on his podcast that the Ducks pushed hard after Stamkos and Marchessault, which is common knowledge, in the summer. He added that the Ducks were particularly upset with losing out on Marchessault. This team both 5v5 and on the PP would be better with Marchessault.

 

[robbieboy3686]

Friedman also said on his podcast that the Ducks pushed hard after Stamkos and Marchessault, which is common knowledge, in the summer. He added that the Ducks were particularly upset with losing out on Marchessault. This team both 5v5 and on the PP would be better with Marchessault.

Dodged a huge bullet on those old farts

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The Vatrano re-singing is bigger than it is, imo. It tells me two things about Verbeek and the organization where they are at.

First, He is looking to finally turn the page from rebuild team to playoff contention team, and not sell everyone off at the TDL and instead maybe try and make a run. Hopefully more support comes their way this summer.

Secondly, it will really open up a lot of opportunities for free agents to sign here , since they want to actually play in Anaheim, Frank and Trouba as proof, but also see the Ducks are willing to negotiate a contract to suit their needs. Really a huge win for Verbeek. This is probably up there with the Drysdale/Cutter trade which is also looking like a real win.

To the people on the mains complaining about this deferred contract? Give me a break.

I think re-signing Vatrano is just part of the overall 5-year rebuild plan.

When Verbeek reset the rebuild, I projected how each year would be like along with prospects coming along.

• Year 1, 2022-23. Tank (it got worse with the roster Verbeek assembled, especially defensively)
• Year 2, 2023-24. Development of youth(s). I just wasn't expecting to have so many rookies up at the NHL level. We rushed some.
• Year 3, 2024-25. Continued development and starting to see cream rise to the top.
• Year 4, 2025-26. We start going after upper echelon NHL talent via FA or trade between the summer. Continued development of youths. Playoff adjacent or playoff bound?
• Year 5, 2026-27. Playoff adjacent or playoff bound?

Trouba will probably get extended as he becomes the vet bridge after Gudas leaves. We probably need another bridge vet D while our youth D contingent continue to dev.

Youths rising to the top: G Dostal and LD LaCombe (smaller sample for LaCombe)

We need more youths rising unless Verbeek goes the veteran route such as keeping Dumo.

 

[All Mighty]

I agree trade Fabbri, always seems close to getting injured.

Ya I like the effort he puts in, but I just think we can upgrade his spot on the roster as we get more competitive. He’s fine as a stop gap, but I would look for a player who represents an improvement over Fabbri. I should also mention that he has arguably the worst on-ice defensive impacts on the team.

 

[JAHV]

The Canadian teams are the definition of high taxes. Toronto would be able to pack in several more players with this stunt instead of being stuck with their obvious deficiencies.

Maybe - I still doubt strongly that many players will go this direction. We'll see, I guess, but I don't see this being a slippery slope. I expect we'll see a few more as more teams and players get comfortable with this sort of thing, but I don't think it will be a division between the rich and poor teams.

 

[Gliff]

Dodged a huge bullet on those old farts

March has the same amount of goals and 3 points less then Terry. He would have been a great add, even at his current level of play.

 

[All Mighty]

March has the same amount of goals and 3 points less then Terry. He would have been a great add, even at his current level of play.

And the Preds somehow score less than we do.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I dont understand which part you are missing.

We were able to pay Vatrano 18 mil in salary and only get the cap hit as if he was getting 13.7 mil.
A team like Edmonton, Toronto, or NY can overpay players to get them there, and the deferred money balances out since they dont have to pay the 15%-13% in taxes when they are retired living in Florida.

Teams that dont have unlimited money cant afford to do that. Makes for a less even playing field.

We were never going to pay Frank $18M for 3 years in a normal contract. The team is only spending $4.57M for each of the next 3 years in real money. $3M will be paid in normal salary and $1.57M each year will be put into a guaranteed annuity which will be part of a future payout to Frank at $900K per year for 10 years. At the end of 3 years the Ducks will have paid out $13.47M. The Ducks will never write another check to Frank, he will just start collecting the annuity on the future date designated.

It's all based on an understanding between the player and the team that the player's current value is $4.57M per year for 3 years. Letting the team pay into an annuity on Frank's behalf and have it payed out later (based on an agreed upon rate of return) is something viewed as beneficial for tax reasons by the player.

And for all the financial gurus out there who think Frank's a fool for not taking the money and investing it himself are apparently unfamiliar with the concept of diversifying your investments. People with a lot of money (professional athletes?) and good financial advisors are not putting everything in the latest crypto currency or financial fad. Their investments are spread between higher risk and lower risk investment. The annuity is a lower risk investment that probably fits just fine in his overall investment strategy.

 

[Bender66]

We were never going to pay Frank $18M for 3 years in a normal contract. The team is only spending $4.57M for each of the next 3 years in real money. $3M will be paid in normal salary and $1.57M each year will be put into a guaranteed annuity which will be part of a future payout to Frank at $900K per year for 10 years. At the end of 3 years the Ducks will have paid out $13.47M. The Ducks will never write another check to Frank, he will just start collecting the annuity on the future date designated.

It's all based on an understanding between the player and the team that the player's current value is $4.57M per year for 3 years. Letting the team pay into an annuity on Frank's behalf and have it payed out later (based on an agreed upon rate of return) is something viewed as beneficial for tax reasons by the player.

And for all the financial gurus out there who think Frank's a fool for not taking the money and investing it himself are apparently unfamiliar with the concept of diversifying your investments. People with a lot of money (professional athletes?) and good financial advisors are not putting everything in the latest crypto currency or financial fad. Their investments are spread between higher risk and lower risk investment. The annuity is a lower risk investment that probably fits just fine in his overall investment strategy.

You mean tech bros on xshitter who never even took a single accounting class that think gambling all your liquid capital in pyramid scheme crypto scams are the best way to invest for your future are wrong? :insert Fry shocked not shocked meme:

 

[SmokeyDuck]

Dodged a huge bullet on those old farts

Depends on the term honestly.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

The Canadian teams are the definition of high taxes. Toronto would be able to pack in several more players with this stunt instead of being stuck with their obvious deficiencies.

Not really. Vatrano agreed he was worth $4.57M per year for the next 3 years. He took some pay in deferred compensation ($1.57M/year) that will grow in value over time via an annuity like anyone can purchase. The Ducks cap hit is exactly what it would be if he signed without differed compensation. Without differed compensation he isn't signing for 3x$6M, he's signing for 3x$4.57M.

If the leafs want to sign Marner to a similar deal they will have to sign him to a contract that will have a $14M cap hit (appx) because that's his appx market value today. If he chooses to defer some of it he will get more dollars in the future based on what his annuity purchased today will return to him down the road. But the leafs don't end up with more cap space.

 

[duckpuck]

I dont understand which part you are missing.

We were able to pay Vatrano 18 mil in salary and only get the cap hit as if he was getting 13.7 mil.
A team like Edmonton, Toronto, or NY can overpay players to get them there, and the deferred money balances out since they dont have to pay the 15%-13% in taxes when they are retired living in Florida.

Teams that dont have unlimited money cant afford to do that. Makes for a less even playing field.

How is than different than wealthy teams front loading deals and then blending the AAV, which has happened for years? Toronto has done this as a way to attract players. Boston did it when they signed Hampus. Philly tried it in an offer sheet to Shea Webber back in the day.

Wealthy teams have always had an advantage. The salary deferral is just a solution to mitigate state taxes and, to a lesser extent, offer the players some retirement financial planning.

 

[duckpuck]

The Canadian teams are the definition of high taxes. Toronto would be able to pack in several more players with this stunt instead of being stuck with their obvious deficiencies.

They already leverage their $$ by structuring contracts with front loaded signing bonuses/salaries. It is not different - they confer a cap compliant benefit on the player while reducing the AAV.

They've literally done this with all of their "premium" players:

Auston Matthews | 4yrs x 13.250M (TOR)

Auston Matthews signed a 4 year, $53,000,000 contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Aug. 23, 2023. The contract has a cap hit of $13,250,000.

capwages.com

William Nylander | 8yrs x 11.500M (TOR)

William Nylander signed a 8 year, $92,000,000 contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 8, 2024. The contract has a cap hit of $11,500,000.

capwages.com

John Tavares | 7yrs x 11.000M (TOR)

John Tavares signed a 7 year, $77,000,000 contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jul. 1, 2018. The contract has a cap hit of $11,000,000.

capwages.com

Mitch Marner | 6yrs x 10.893M (TOR)

Mitchell Marner signed a 6 year, $65,408,000 contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sep. 13, 2019. The contract has a cap hit of $10,903,000.

capwages.com

Morgan Rielly | 8yrs x 7.500M (TOR)

Morgan Rielly signed a 8 year, $60,000,000 contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Oct. 29, 2021. The contract has a cap hit of $7,500,000.

capwages.com

Jake McCabe | 5yrs x 4.492M (TOR)

Jake McCabe signed a five-year, $23.5 million extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs. The contract includes deferred money and signing bonuses in the first four years.

capwages.com