Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

[Yemeth]

Maybe not UFAs, but hockey trades of talent for talent are always a possibility. And if they don’t materialize then you’re right, we have to go with what we got. I just have no interest in spending another year getting my excitement from TDL day rumors, salivating over ways to acquire the Cody Cecis of the world, watching tankathon daily and reading up on all the draft eligible prospects after the WJCs. Not to mention having to put up with the garbage rumors started by hacks who make a living generating clicks.

I don’t care where we finish in the standings. I just want a team that’s enjoyable to watch as all our talent grows and improves. I want to focus on something more than fringe deals for future picks that will have nothing to do with the expectations of this core we have.

I realize there aren’t simple answers. But I’m just getting real tired of waking up every season to Groundhog Day again.

Agree, wholeheartedly.

But, also "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.". One pick we get for a cap relief compensation could net us a good bargain chip for a future hockey trade.

I am still not over how Drysdale was traded without a hint from any insider, so who knows what the future brings. If nothing else, we can always read about the shipping delays of sneakers .

 

[GermanRocket7]

With all the flak PV receives from many people on here (and some of it justifiably so), we need to be thankful for finally having a GM who has the balls to actually make trades and try to sign FA players.

It has been mentioned numerous times by now that we were in on every single big-name FA this summer and they chose other teams even though we offered more cash and term. He isn't afraid of making big trades either, see Drysdale.

I am pretty sure that once we are in contention, he will make the moves necessary to win a championship or two, regardless of names or feelings. That's pretty much exactly how Florida got their Cup, just ask Mr. Huberdeau.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

The only problem is anybody we want we can’t get. So the default is grow with the team.

But as hockey fans we end up bantering around those what ifs to pass the time during the off-season.

John

I don’t think this is true for the most part—other than our rumored interest in Stamkos this offseason, it sounds like we’ve gotten the guys we’ve wanted. And it’s not like there wasn’t competition for the UFAs we’ve signed over the last few summers, either. To the extent PV doesn't have EXACTLY the players he wants, for the most part it’s no different than it is for any team who competes in the UFA market.

Mostly I just don’t like this as an excuse for PV. This team is a deliberate creation, it’s not BM;s team anymore and it’s not a woe-is-me UFA market pressures team. It’s a turd, turds are supposed to stink.

 

[JAHV]

I don’t think this is true for the most part—other than our rumored interest in Stamkos this offseason, it sounds like we’ve gotten the guys we’ve wanted. And it’s not like there wasn’t competition for the UFAs we’ve signed over the last few summers, either. To the extent PV doesn't have EXACTLY the players he wants, for the most part it’s no different than it is for any team who competes in the UFA market.

Mostly I just don’t like this as an excuse for PV. This team is a deliberate creation, it’s not BM;s team anymore and it’s not a woe-is-me UFA market pressures team. It’s a turd, turds are supposed to stink.

The Ducks were in on both Marchessault and Stamkos this offseason, either of whom would have been a major asset to the forward group.

This turd is still Murray's. The teardown that Verbeek has overseen would not have been necessary had Murray started it when it should have been started.

Verbeek is not wholly absolved of responsibility; I would have liked to have seen a bigger step forward last season. Injuries are a valid excuse, but the jury is still very much out on Cronin and whether Verbeek has the right personnel in place to get the most out of the promising youngsters. I think there needs to be substantial improvement this year.

 

[Deuce22]

The Ducks were in on both Marchessault and Stamkos this offseason, either of whom would have been a major asset to the forward group.

This turd is still Murray's. The teardown that Verbeek has overseen would not have been necessary had Murray started it when it should have been started.

Verbeek is not wholly absolved of responsibility; I would have liked to have seen a bigger step forward last season. Injuries are a valid excuse, but the jury is still very much out on Cronin and whether Verbeek has the right personnel in place to get the most out of the promising youngsters. I think there needs to be substantial improvement this year.

Murray's turd has been flushed, but what we are seeing on the ice is a direct result of his reluctance to pull the plug on mediocrity. With key players aging out or gone, the only way Ducks could return to contender status was by finding elite talent through the draft. Verbeek did what needed to be done and we'll see if the rebuild is going to bring back playoff hockey for the Ducks. There was no shortcut to contender status, elite free agents aren't signing here.

 

[70sSanO]

Maybe not UFAs, but hockey trades of talent for talent are always a possibility. And if they don’t materialize then you’re right, we have to go with what we got. I just have no interest in spending another year getting my excitement from TDL day rumors, salivating over ways to acquire the Cody Cecis of the world, watching tankathon daily and reading up on all the draft eligible prospects after the WJCs. Not to mention having to put up with the garbage rumors started by hacks who make a living generating clicks.

I don’t care where we finish in the standings. I just want a team that’s enjoyable to watch as all our talent grows and improves. I want to focus on something more than fringe deals for future picks that will have nothing to do with the expectations of this core we have.

I realize there aren’t simple answers. But I’m just getting real tired of waking up every season to Groundhog Day again.

Some of the trade issues are modified no-trade clauses. Dadonov is the perfect example.

We will never know how many players have Anaheim on their list. I suspect the number will decrease (can’t imagine it getting worse) in proportion to the team’s success.

At this point it is a catch-22. The Ducks need top performers to elevate the team and turn our kids into top performers.

At times there is no rhyme or reason to a lot of situations. And it is not just the Ducks. A number of teams are fighting this. It is ironic that Fantilli wanted Columbus while Laine wants to leave. Matthew Tkachuk and Calgary. But Gauthier cut the right way for us.

I do think that over the years things have changed to the point where more players see it important to play where they want to be.

Even people in general don’t stick with a company. If you like what you do but not who you work for/with, you move on.

John

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The Ducks were in on both Marchessault and Stamkos this offseason, either of whom would have been a major asset to the forward group.

This turd is still Murray's. The teardown that Verbeek has overseen would not have been necessary had Murray started it when it should have been started.

Verbeek is not wholly absolved of responsibility; I would have liked to have seen a bigger step forward last season. Injuries are a valid excuse, but the jury is still very much out on Cronin and whether Verbeek has the right personnel in place to get the most out of the promising youngsters. I think there needs to be substantial improvement this year.

This narrative that there was only one option to move forward with the Ducks when Verbeek became the GM is quite false. Verbeek chose to blow up the team as his path forward. From the DetroitNews:

"This team doesn't need to be rebuilt; they're in the middle of their rebuild, so this is a great opportunity to take this team forward and turn them into a contender," Verbeek said during his introductory press conference. "You don't have to come in there and look to take a long time. There's good players in the NHL, good players in the minors and there are players that have been drafted. There's a lot coming to support the growth of this team. That's truly what I'm excited about."​

And this from the Athletic:

Verbeek wanted to take the time to further get to know his coach before making any decisions.​

​

“It’s not fair … me coming in two, three months and then going with a new guy,” Verbeek said. “And in the sense that I just blew up the team (at the trade deadline). So I wanted to give him a chance.​

When Verbeek took over at All-Star break, the Ducks were 3rd in the Pacific and Manson was put on IR. Manson would miss 12 consecutive games and return for two games from All-Star break to the TDL. Anaheim was 6th in the Pacific and only 4 points out of 3rd in the Pacific at the TDL. Apparently, there was enough talent on the team to where they can be seen nipping around the playoffs.

Verbeek chose to burn the Ducks to the ground. If that's the pathway Verbeek chose, then I was strapped to wait five years for the turnaround. We are now entering year 3 of the reset rebuild. I don't comprehend the impatience, especially when posters get what they wanted - the Ducks blown up.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I have no interest in reigniting a BM/PV debate. My point is that the UFA thing is overblown as a Ducks-specific problem, there are only so many elite UFAs that become available, EVERY GM is going to face limiting factors there. Money, roster fit, personality compatibility, etc. It’s universal. So, this is not a factor that absolves PV of anything. We’ve signed coveted UFAs before, under PV, even if they weren’t HF darlings.

PV’s been in charge of this team for 3 years, to argue that this isn’t the team he wants beggars reality. I understand why that is, young teams have to improve etc., but if we’re acknowledging that reality of rebuilding (and we should) then we have to acknowledge that rebuilding is a choice, meaning that it’s a choice for the team to look like this. Again.

 

[Static]

I don't quite understand this off-season. He obviously wanted more top-of-the-lineup talent, but we have so much cap space and so many trade assets that I'm surprised he hasn't been able to pivot.

Is the market that slow? Nobody available? I don't know, but as of now this has been a major failure.

I would not expect trades for first line guys, but even mid-level second liners would be major boons. Perhaps the best of our trade assets are too much to pay and the teams with guys available aren't interested in prospects. I don't know. He has to find a way though.

 

[70sSanO]

We’ve signed coveted UFAs before, under PV, even if they weren’t HF darlings.

I honestly don’t recall the Ducks signing a true “coveted” UFA in the last 15 years. Especially PV.

Kesler was the best player we got and that was via a trade.

John

 

[JAHV]

I don't quite understand this off-season. He obviously wanted more top-of-the-lineup talent, but we have so much cap space and so many trade assets that I'm surprised he hasn't been able to pivot.

Is the market that slow? Nobody available? I don't know, but as of now this has been a major failure.

I would not expect trades for first line guys, but even mid-level second liners would be major boons. Perhaps the best of our trade assets are too much to pay and the teams with guys available aren't interested in prospects. I don't know. He has to find a way though.

What trade assets are you referring to? I agree that the Ducks do have assets, but you seem to want them to get better immediately by trading for NHL talent. The only way to do that is by trading assets whose value is all in the future. A second line talent NOW is going to cost a future late 1st round pick, or its equivalent. The Ducks aren't about to trade any 1st round picks for 2nd liners. So now they'll have to give up prospects or young players. Which prospects do we want to give up? And why would the team trading with us want them? We could try offloading a bunch of B-/C+ level prospects, but it would have to be for a cap dump. No contending team is going to trade a 2nd liner they're relying on for a bunch of prospects, and a non-contending team would probably rather throw in an extra asset to get a higher level prospect.

So unless we find that legitimate quality player whose cap hit just doesn't work for his current team, we're looking at having to trade a promising prospect or young player. Now we have to ask how long that 2nd liner is going to be around. Is he young enough and signed for long enough to be part of the next contending Ducks team (probably 26-27)? If so, the price just went up and we're looking at the top of our prospect pool to get him. If not, then why would we give up a prospect who very well MIGHT be a significant contributor of the next contending Ducks team for him? There is obviously some value to being better now, and I'd love to see it, but how big of a future price are we willing to pay to go from, let's say, 72 points to 76 points?

I hope Verbeek can find someone who makes sense, but it's probably going to mean trading a guy like Zegras, or trading a young guy like Zellweger or Luneau, or, at best, trying to find someone who will take LaCombe and Lundestrom and a 3rd. The latter is clearly the most palatable, but I'm not sure what kind of asset that will get us. Are we getting an impact 2nd liner for LaCombe, Lundestrom, and a 3rd? Maybe! But how many teams would want that package?

I honestly don’t recall the Ducks signing a true “coveted” UFA in the last 15 years. Especially PV.

Kesler was the best player we got and that was via a trade.

John

Klingberg, Strome, Killorn, Gudas - those guys were all coveted in UFA to some degree. If you're talking about an elite player, those rarely become available, and I don't think that's what we're talking about.

 

[70sSanO]

Klingberg, Strome, Killorn, Gudas - those guys were all coveted in UFA to some degree. If you're talking about an elite player, those rarely become available, and I don't think that's what we're talking about.

Hahaha. Based on that, we deserve what we get. 30 year olds plus less than 1 year Dman that can’t even find a job.

Except for Gudas, I think for the rest are more “covert” UFAs in that their actual value is hidden.

John

Edit Added: Now I’ll give you Vatrano as a great FA signing of a non-elite player. That is what I expect from a GM if we can’t get elite. Find that player who can exceed his expectations and not just declines year by year.

 

[gunnergunther]

With all the flak PV receives from many people on here (and some of it justifiably so), we need to be thankful for finally having a GM who has the balls to actually make trades and try to sign FA players.

It has been mentioned numerous times by now that we were in on every single big-name FA this summer and they chose other teams even though we offered more cash and term. He isn't afraid of making big trades either, see Drysdale.

I am pretty sure that once we are in contention, he will make the moves necessary to win a championship or two, regardless of names or feelings. That's pretty much exactly how Florida got their Cup, just ask Mr. Huberdeau.

He’s forced to sign guys because he gutted the team of nearly all the veteran players and has had to reach the floor every year. I don’t see how you can extrapolate a comparison to a guy that was fielding a competitive team while trying to stay under an internal cap.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Don't know how I could have overlooked this in my previous post, but the excitement should start building soon to speculate on which "quality" players teams will try to slip through waivers during camp and before the season starts. Oh boy, we pick second! Surely there will be at least a couple of real sweethearts we can pluck away from somebody. And then with any real luck, come TDL, we'll be able to dump them for a 3rd or a 4th! Oh baby!

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

Scorched Earth rebuilds take a long time to come out of, it's just the way it goes. There's also some luck involved, and when you don't hit on the consensus elite guys like MacKinnon/Bedard/McDavid then you just have to trust your scouts and hope they're picking the best of the rest.

Our players with the highest ceilings are pretty much all 19-21 years old. They just don't have the experience and consistency yet to be competitive on a nightly basis. We'll probably also have one of the worst blue lines in hockey again next year, primarily due to likely starting four kids with a combined 150 games of NHL experience between them (LaCombe/Luneau/Minty/Zellweger).

This is the gist of it right here. Also, this is not an original thought (notably @AngelDuck has pointed it out a few times on here, amongst others) and I know we all love Madden, but this team getting nothing from 2015-2018 outside of Terry has been backbreaking for the franchise. Those are the guys in the 25–28-year-old range who would be right at their prime who were supposed to anchor the rebuild and provide the insulation to the Z/Mac/Leo/Cutter brigade whom are instead being asked to carry the burden on their shoulders.

 

[JAHV]

Hahaha. Based on that, we deserve what we get. 30 year olds plus less than 1 year Dman that can’t even find a job.

Except for Gudas, I think for the rest are more “covert” UFAs in that their actual value is hidden.

John

Edit Added: Now I’ll give you Vatrano as a great FA signing of a non-elite player. That is what I expect from a GM if we can’t get elite. Find that player who can exceed his expectations and not just declines year by year.

All of those guys were respected guys who were desired by more than just the Ducks. That's "coveted." I don't think Vatrano fits, actually. The Ducks got him cheap because he wasn't all that coveted. It was a great signing, but it doesn't really speak to the point.

The Ducks can get guys through free agency. It just didn't really work this year for whom they were targeting.

 

[JAHV]

This is the gist of it right here. Also, this is not an original thought (notably @AngelDuck has pointed it out a few times on here, amongst others) and I know we all love Madden, but this team getting nothing from 2015-2018 outside of Terry has been backbreaking for the franchise. Those are the guys in the 25–28-year-old range who would be right at their prime who were supposed to anchor the rebuild and provide the insulation to the Z/Mac/Leo/Cutter brigade whom are instead being asked to carry the burden on their shoulders.

I wonder how much of that is on Madden and how much is on the player development staff and the decisions made on when to bring guys up. It's probably a combination. But we've seen guys from those drafts have success, sometimes briefly in Anaheim before flaming out (Comtois), sometimes with other teams (Steel, Mahura to an extent).

Not to exonerate Madden who almost certainly had some picks he'd like to do over during that period, but I was skeptical of Todd Marchant's reign as the Director of Player Development. I felt like we consistently were praised for solid picks in the draft, saw those guys succeed in juniors or in college, and then they promptly fizzled once they got into Anaheim's system. I don't think Marchant was great in that role.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I honestly don’t recall the Ducks signing a true “coveted” UFA in the last 15 years. Especially PV.

Kesler was the best player we got and that was via a trade.

John

I think you might just be bad at understanding the kinds of players that are typically available in UFA and why teams might want them.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

Hahaha. Based on that, we deserve what we get. 30 year olds plus less than 1 year Dman that can’t even find a job.

Except for Gudas, I think for the rest are more “covert” UFAs in that their actual value is hidden.

John

Edit Added: Now I’ll give you Vatrano as a great FA signing of a non-elite player. That is what I expect from a GM if we can’t get elite. Find that player who can exceed his expectations and not just declines year by year.

Younger players are signing longer deals with the teams that draft them. Most "good" players don't become UFA until they're 30+.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I wonder how much of that is on Madden and how much is on the player development staff and the decisions made on when to bring guys up. It's probably a combination. But we've seen guys from those drafts have success, sometimes briefly in Anaheim before flaming out (Comtois), sometimes with other teams (Steel, Mahura to an extent).

Not to exonerate Madden who almost certainly had some picks he'd like to do over during that period, but I was skeptical of Todd Marchant's reign as the Director of Player Development. I felt like we consistently were praised for solid picks in the draft, saw those guys succeed in juniors or in college, and then they promptly fizzled once they got into Anaheim's system. I don't think Marchant was great in that role.

I've wondered the same thing for a long time. I'm not sold that we have ever been good at developing players. BM came from a scouting background and we had some pretty good scouting during his time here. Knowing in hindsight what a poor leader he was I don't find it difficult to believe that his ability to manage and oversee something as important as development got ignored/overlooked because Bob had no clue how to do it well. Remember, we were one of the last teams in the league to hire somebody to look at analytics because Bob refused to even consider them while the rest of the league saw them as another tool to evaluate players. Development? Who knows?

 

[Tony O]

I've wondered the same thing for a long time. I'm not sold that we have ever been good at developing players. BM came from a scouting background and we had some pretty good scouting during his time here. Knowing in hindsight what a poor leader he was I don't find it difficult to believe that his ability to manage and oversee something as important as development got ignored/overlooked because Bob had no clue how to do it well. Remember, we were one of the last teams in the league to hire somebody to look at analytics because Bob refused to even consider them while the rest of the league saw them as another tool to evaluate players. Development? Who knows?

Amateur scouting specifically for defense was outstanding; finding forwards was elusive, and Pro scouting during his tenure was atrocious.

 

[70sSanO]

I know exactly how free agency works.

No team is going to let an pending UFA elite, especially younger, player walk for nothing if he doesn't want to re-sign. He will be gone at the TDL unless there is a NTC/NMC that won't be waived. Even a good player will be moved for something.

Added: There are also situations with teams that have a legitimate chance at a cup, not moving a pending UFA as he becomes their rental for the run. I imagine Gudas fits into this category.

Nearly every veteran player is "coveted" at a certain price and term. I'm sure there were other teams that were interested, except for Klingberg, but never close to the term. But I do expect that when we overpay, that player actually puts out the effort and contributes close to what he should. Strome and Killorn are really 3rd liners. Those contracts are a joke.

And while Zach Hyman is an outlier, I imagine there are UFA players out there that are available without the veteran pedigree/covet that might be younger and a much better choice.

The problem with most GM's is that they focus on what has been (pun intended) and fail to recognize what will be. And they can't seem to find unrealized talent, so they go the safe route. Unrealized talent can be a crap shoot.

On another side note, most people dismiss Brett Leason, but he has produced well and seems to be continually improving. Maybe one of the better waiver wires we have had in a while.

John

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This is the gist of it right here. Also, this is not an original thought (notably @AngelDuck has pointed it out a few times on here, amongst others) and I know we all love Madden, but this team getting nothing from 2015-2018 outside of Terry has been backbreaking for the franchise. Those are the guys in the 25–28-year-old range who would be right at their prime who were supposed to anchor the rebuild and provide the insulation to the Z/Mac/Leo/Cutter brigade whom are instead being asked to carry the burden on their shoulders.

I wonder how much of that is on Madden and how much is on the player development staff and the decisions made on when to bring guys up. It's probably a combination. But we've seen guys from those drafts have success, sometimes briefly in Anaheim before flaming out (Comtois), sometimes with other teams (Steel, Mahura to an extent).

Not to exonerate Madden who almost certainly had some picks he'd like to do over during that period, but I was skeptical of Todd Marchant's reign as the Director of Player Development. I felt like we consistently were praised for solid picks in the draft, saw those guys succeed in juniors or in college, and then they promptly fizzled once they got into Anaheim's system. I don't think Marchant was great in that role.

2016 - 2018, we were not having a balanced draft as we only drafted two d-men in three drafts: Mahura (2016, Rd 3) and Drew (2018, Rd 6). GM Murray was trying to gather as many offensive draft darts as possible for the impending losses of the Twins. But once the team started drafted on balance again, we found lots of D talents again in LaCombe (2019), Thrun (2019), Moore (2020), Zellweger (2021), and Hinds (2021).

• Ducks' first pick between 2015-2018
  • 2015: 27th overall, D Larsson
  • 2016: 24th overall, LW Jones
  • 2017: 50th overall, LW Comtois
    No first round pick (traded for Eaves, met WCF conditional)
  • 2018: 23rd overall, Lundestrom

• Ducks' First pick between 2009-2014
  • 2009: 15th, C Holland
  • 2010: 12th, D Fowler
  • 2011: 30th, RW Rakell
  • 2012: 6th, D Lindholm
  • 2013: 26th, D Theodore
  • 2014: 10th, LW Ritchie

The closer the prospect is to the top-10, the better chances of landing better talent. Anaheim never sniffed the teens in the draft between 2015-2018. We currently have three players in our system between 2015-2018: RW Terry (top line winger), C Lundy (3/4 shutdown C), and G Dostal (potential starting NHL goalie). Terry, Steel, Jones, and Comtois had huge hypes prior to going pro. All four forwards very highly productive in the AHL. Only one of them was able to find high end success in Terry, who was in his D+7 season when he broke out in the NHL.

Speaking of NHL level, that jump between the AHL and NHL loomed large for many prospects who looked good in the AHL. Comtois is the saddest story of the bunch b/c he proved he can hang in the NHL and gave it all up when he decided to no longer put in work after getting paid on his 2nd NHL contract. Steel couldn't adapt to the speed of the NHL in his mind, but he's found himself a niche in the NHL. Jones was just too injury prone, probably because of the style of play he conducted. Even Groulx looked great in his first season in the AHL such that he got promoted to the NHL the following season as its starting 4C. Mahura was another player who looked good in the AHL, but not so much in the NHL; still, Mahura is still floating about in the NHL.

Now, compare those prospects to a Zegras and Drysdale. Both are top-10 picks and rose through the system with ease. When Drysdale and Zegras got injured at the NHL level, Marchant wasn't with the team anymore. Mac looked great in 2021-22 with his WJC gold and WJC MVP status, along with an OHL championship. Marchant was fired after 2021-22. Mac was able to play 80 games in 2022-23, but Mac only got in 64 games in 2023-24.

I think people are blaming the wrong aspect with our prospects not making a bigger statement on the NHL scene. Which is thinking we have all top-10 pick type talents during 2015-2018 when our highest draft pick was 23rd overall. Also, we stopped drafting defensemen high and in multiples during 2016-2018.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Amateur scouting specifically for defense was outstanding; finding forwards was elusive, and Pro scouting during his tenure was atrocious.

Pretty amazing at drafting goalies as well. Totally agree on finding forwards outside the top-10 was terrible, but that's actually on par with most teams. This is why we were often ranked in the top-10 for prospect pool rankings.

As for Pro Scouting, it's kinda difficult to ding Murray on that since his teams were playoffs teams in eight out of 10 years before going on the rebuild at the 2018-19 TDL. He found enough veteran talents to make the playoffs as well as make the WCF twice. His late additions of Kesler, Rico, and Eaves were a boon when healthy, but Kesler and Eaves got wrecked medically after the final WCF appearance in 2016-17.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Amateur scouting specifically for defense was outstanding; finding forwards was elusive, and Pro scouting during his tenure was atrocious.

Fair enough. I was really only thinking about the amateur scouting. And while we have done better on D than F, one could ask if that is more related to a development problem or a drafting problem.