Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

[FlyingV09]

And, as I pointed out, they’re getting about the same amount of time as Fowler is.

Mintyukov’s play fell off as his minutes rose, and Zellweger is still bad at playing actual defense in spite of being heavily sheltered. I’d rather they learn to play defense over getting another 20 seconds of power play time, or get power play time over a player that they’re very clearly inferior to as far as production goes.

Mintyukov and Zellweger are 20 years old. Cam is in his 30s. In time their production will outshine Fowlers by a fair margin. They need more experience. Let them get that now.

Our PP has been among the worst in the league with Cam as the QB. Can you honestly tell me, having watched Fowler on the PP for the last however many years, that a replacement would not be beneficial? His shot is soft and is blocked way too many times. He’s not an amazing passer. Giving more experience to someone like Zellweger who has a great shot and much better offensive instincts will only help the PP improve.

 

[Static]

Mintyukov and Zellweger are 20 years old. Cam is in his 30s. In time their production will outshine Fowlers by a fair margin. They need more experience. Let them get that now.

Our PP has been among the worst in the league with Cam as the QB. Can you honestly tell me, having watched Fowler on the PP for the last however many years, that a replacement would not be beneficial? His shot is soft and is blocked way too many times. He’s not an amazing passer. Giving more experience to someone like Zellweger who has a great shot and much better offensive instincts will only help the PP improve.

Fowler being the scapegoat for a bad PP has been a fallacy for years. The numbers do not bear this out, which has been pointed out ad nauseam. It should almost be stickied at this point to avoid belaboring.

 

[Static]

NHL Defensemen Stats in Last 5 Seasons

NHL defenseman scoring leaders in the last 5 seasons. NHL defenseman stats leaders between 2019-2020 and 2023-2024 seasons.

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26th in the league in power play points the last five seasons. 45th in power play time per game.

 

[Static]

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Among dmen who have played at least 100 games and 100 PP minutes in the last five years, Fowler is 28th in PPP per 60 minutes. He's above players like Erik karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo, and Kris Letang. This is on the worst team in the league over that span.

What exactly do people want? If you want someone to blame, blame the forwards. Cam has not been the problem.

 

[FlyingV09]

Fowler being the scapegoat for a bad PP has been a fallacy for years. The numbers do not bear this out, which has been pointed out ad nauseam. It should almost be stickied at this point to avoid belaboring.

He certainly doesn’t make it better. Put an actual offensive minded defenseman back there with a harder shot and better instincts and the numbers will improve.

 

[FlyingV09]

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Among dmen who have played at least 100 games and 100 PP minutes in the last five years, Fowler is 28th in PPP per 60 minutes. He's above players like Erik karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo, and Kris Letang. This is on the worst team in the league over that span.

What exactly do people want? If you want someone to blame, blame the forwards. Cam has not been the problem.

I’m supposed to be impressed by him being 28th? I think it’s time to raise our standards here people.

 

[Static]

I’m supposed to be impressed by him being 28th? I think it’s time to raise our standards here people.

Yes? You should? Producing at a better rate on one of the least productive power plays in the last five years over guys like Letang, karlsson, and pietraneglo should at the very least reorient your perspective.

If it doesn't, it just reinforces that this just a strange personal thing with people rather than based on any facts.

He certainly doesn’t make it better. Put an actual offensive minded defenseman back there with a harder shot and better instincts and the numbers will improve.

Please make this make sense.

 

[FlyingV09]

Yes? You should? Producing at a better rate on one of the least productive power plays in the last five years over guys like Letang, karlsson, and pietraneglo should at the very least reorient your perspective.

If it doesn't, it just reinforces that this just a strange personal thing with people rather than based on any facts.


Please make this make sense.

It is not a “strange personal” thing. It is a “I’ve watched this abysmal PP for years” thing and the more weapons we have the better the PP will be. Fowlers shot is not a threat back there. Have you watched the games? How can you not see that? What do you think Fowler does that is so amazing and couldn’t be improved upon?

 

[Static]

It is not a “strange personal” thing. It is a “I’ve watched this abysmal PP for years” thing and the more weapons we have the better the PP will be. Fowlers shot is not a threat back there. Have you watched the games? How can you not see that? What do you think Fowler does that is so amazing and couldn’t be improved upon?

Everyone can be improved upon, that isn't the argument. Obsessing over the one guy on the PP who has produced at an above average rate is what is weird.

Do you have anything to back up your claims other than you don't enjoy watching him? Everything you have said has been completely subjective.

 

[JAHV]

It is not a “strange personal” thing. It is a “I’ve watched this abysmal PP for years” thing and the more weapons we have the better the PP will be. Fowlers shot is not a threat back there. Have you watched the games? How can you not see that? What do you think Fowler does that is so amazing and couldn’t be improved upon?

This is why we have statistics. Our eyes are incredibly biased.

Fowler is not a bad power play defenseman.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Mintyukov and Zellweger are 20 years old. Cam is in his 30s. In time their production will outshine Fowlers by a fair margin. They need more experience. Let them get that now.

Our PP has been among the worst in the league with Cam as the QB. Can you honestly tell me, having watched Fowler on the PP for the last however many years, that a replacement would not be beneficial? His shot is soft and is blocked way too many times. He’s not an amazing passer. Giving more experience to someone like Zellweger who has a great shot and much better offensive instincts will only help the PP improve.

I do not understand the argument that Fowler is (very consistently) a top 24 PP defenseman in the league as far as points/60 goes, on one of the least productive PP in the league, and HE is the problem? People seem to only want a defenseman with a cannon shot, and seem incapable of realizing that there are other ways to play the position. There simply aren’t many of those guys in the leagueCoaching that has no creativity, runs 1 play for weeks on end, then switches to the next one play, players who don’t move (not sure if that’s coaches, players, or both), forwards who can’t/won’t take one-timers, or shots period, no appropriate player on the roster to stand near the net, etc etc etc - that’s the real problem. Every defenseman fails to keep pucks in, including the two golden children, and Zelleweger in particular is bad about making the wrong play and giving up odd man breaks, so don’t bring that up.

As I stated elsewhere, I’d rather Zelleweger learned how to play actual NHL defense first, that’s the hard part of the job, and it’s why most young defensemen aren’t rushed to the NHL, then rushed to the top pairing. Mintyukov had his play deteriorate with higher minutes. Let them both earn the ice time, and not just get it, then struggle, then potentially be ruined. I’m not a #youthmovement fan, would far prefer that Verbeek put his money where his mouth is and cook to overcook our prospects, rather than serving us up several seasons of prospect tartare.

 

[FlyingV09]

Everyone can be improved upon, that isn't the argument. Obsessing over the one guy on the PP who has produced at an above average rate is what is weird.

Do you have anything to back up your claims other than you don't enjoy watching him? Everything you have said has been completely subjective.

That is the argument. We can improve upon 28th.

 

[Ducks DVM]

He certainly doesn’t make it better. Put an actual offensive minded defenseman back there with a harder shot and better instincts and the numbers w

Our eyes and the statistics prove otherwise. The kids are fun to watch, and are significantly worse at the whole PP production thing.

That is the argument. We can improve upon 28th.

This will absolutely not occur without improvement in the forwards and systems, in which case it is reasonable to expect that Fowler’s numbers would also improve.

 

[Static]

That is the argument. We can improve upon 28th.

Yes, if we acquire one of the very best dmen in the league, we can. That isn't a novel statement or an argument for much of anything.

 

[FlyingV09]

I do not understand the argument that Fowler is (very consistently) a top 24 PP defenseman in the league as far as points/60 goes, on one of the least productive PP in the league, and HE is the problem? People seem to only want a defenseman with a cannon shot, and seem incapable of realizing that there are other ways to play the position. There simply aren’t many of those guys in the leagueCoaching that has no creativity, runs 1 play for weeks on end, then switches to the next one play, players who don’t move (not sure if that’s coaches, players, or both), forwards who can’t/won’t take one-timers, or shots period, no appropriate player on the roster to stand near the net, etc etc etc - that’s the real problem. Every defenseman fails to keep pucks in, including the two golden children, and Zelleweger in particular is bad about making the wrong play and giving up odd man breaks, so don’t bring that up.

As I stated elsewhere, I’d rather Zelleweger learned how to play actual NHL defense first, that’s the hard part of the job, and it’s why most young defensemen aren’t rushed to the NHL, then rushed to the top pairing. Mintyukov had his play deteriorate with higher minutes. Let them both earn the ice time, and not just get it, then struggle, then potentially be ruined. I’m not a #youthmovement fan, would far prefer that Verbeek put his money where his mouth is and cook to overcook our prospects, rather than serving us up several seasons of prospect tartare.

He’s not the only problem, but our PPQB is not a threat and I believe Zellweger is an upgrade. He has a great wrister, passes hard and accurate, and moves laterally as good as anyone opening up shooting and passing lanes.

Zellweger doesn’t need to play on the top pair. He can be sheltered 5 on 5 and still QB a PP. PP is about offense. If defensive play was a prerequisite then Fowler should have been shot to the moon years ago.

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

Fowler's shot is a complete non factor. He doesn't shoot it hard and he's not accurate. He also holds on the puck way too long., causing the powerplay to tick down He may appear to have some decent stats but I don't think you can say that most D-man in his position wouldn't do the same if not better. Sometimes stats just don't tell the whole story and I think thats probably the case here.

 

[Static]

Fowler's shot is a complete non factor. He doesn't shoot it hard and he's not accurate. He also holds on the puck way too long., causing the powerplay to tick down He may appear to have some decent stats but I don't think you can say that most D-man in his position wouldn't do the same if not better. Sometimes stats just don't tell the whole story and I think thats probably the case here.

The numbers don't have biases, people do.

All the evidence people have been able to produce that folwer is not good on the PP has been wrapped up in aesthetic opinion.

At some point, if you have to admit that there is no actual evidence that can be shown to you that would change your mind then you have crossed a line into dogmatism.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I think the better argument for taking Fowler off the PP goes like this...

1) There is a consensus that he plays too many minutes currently. Taking him off the PP allows him more rest and the possibility of playing better defense when he is on the ice, thereby hopefully allowing fewer goals against.

2) We have multiple young D who are potential replacements for #1 PPQB. They should be given equal time and opportunity to show what they can do. Yes they will make mistakes, but it's quite obvious that winning is still not the top priority on this team. So give them that opportunity now when it least matters if they make mistakes. Let's find out who is really the best to play #1 PPQB.

3) Yes, the young players need to learn to play D. But that doesn't mean we can't be developing them on O now. Good D usually take years to become top notch at playing D. Ignoring O while waiting for D to develop runs the risk of never truly developing a top notch offensive D man. We need both. As long as we are carrying guys on the NHL roster then let's find out what they can do at both ends of the ice asap.

 

[Goose of Reason]

I skipped the last couple pages so maybe this was discussed, but I think the biggest issue with Cam is shorthanded usage. Cam is not a good penalty killer. He played the 3rd most PK minutes of all defenders in the NHL last season. He is still an effective 5on5 and PP defender, but not an all situations #1 and is getting gassed playing tough PK minutes.

I don't think Cam was very good last season, but I don't think Minty or Zellweger would have been good if they got that usage. Dumo isn't the most exciting acquisition but having a guy that can come in and play those minutes on the left side is a huge boon for the team and for Cam. We will have to move on from him at some point, but I'd rather see Mintyukov force his way into that role and those bigger minutes than throw him to the wolves. Fowler has value on this team still.

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

The numbers don't have biases, people do.

All the evidence people have been able to produce that folwer is not good on the PP has been wrapped up in aesthetic opinion.

At some point, if you have to admit that there is no actual evidence that can be shown to you that would change your mind then you have crossed a line into dogmatism.

This is only one statistic though. You could view the Ducks powerplay numbers over the past 5 years and would see that the Ducks are often bottom 5 in the league all the while having Fowler taking up most of that PP time. There's a number of different stats that all say different things, viewing one single stat and making your conclusion based on that all the while ignoring what your eyes tell you is no way to run a powerplay.

 

[dracom]

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Among dmen who have played at least 100 games and 100 PP minutes in the last five years, Fowler is 28th in PPP per 60 minutes. He's above players like Erik karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo, and Kris Letang. This is on the worst team in the league over that span.

What exactly do people want? If you want someone to blame, blame the forwards. Cam has not been the problem.

they just want a guy with a heavy slap shot, they want a Weber type guy and since Fowler isn't that, then he must be awful.

 

[Static]

This is only one statistic though. You could view the Ducks powerplay numbers over the past 5 years and would see that the Ducks are often bottom 5 in the league all the while having Fowler taking up most of that PP time. There's a number of different stats that all say different things, viewing one single stat and making your conclusion based on that all the while ignoring what your eyes tell you is no way to run a powerplay.

Logically, if I wanted to make the case that Fowler is the reason our powerplay has been bad then I would research his individual contributions. If I found out, hey, he actually produces at an above average rate league-wide despite our awful pp, I would come to the conclusion that he is not the problem and perhaps look at others.

I understand you do not like watching him on the PP. That doesn't mean he is bad, as much as you might want the two to correlate.

 

[Static]

they just want a guy with a heavy slap shot, they want a Weber type guy and since Fowler isn't that, then he must be awful.

Well I had the same issue with henrique. I hated watching him play, but I couldn't deny that he was productive and better than any alternative we had, despite my distaste when watching him.

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

Logically, if I wanted to make the case that Fowler is the reason our powerplay has been bad then I would research his individual contributions. If I found out, hey, he actually produces at an above average rate league-wide despite our awful pp, I would come to the conclusion that he is not the problem and perhaps look at others.

I understand you do not like watching him on the PP. That doesn't mean he is bad, as much as you might want the two to correlate.

Individual contributions don't mean a whole lot when you're contributing to historically bad powerplays. There are certain things that don't apply to the stat sheet that can make a powerplay poor. Holding on to the puck longer than you should, making poor passes and taking soft shots that go wide are not things most people take stats for. The fact that both Klingberg and Fowler appear on that certain stat of yours should tell you that its not the be all end all of the debate, considering both were on the Anaheim team that had a god awful powerplay.

 

[DavidBL]

Individual contributions don't mean a whole lot when you're contributing to historically bad powerplays. There are certain things that don't apply to the stat sheet that can make a powerplay poor. Holding on to the puck longer than you should, making poor passes and taking soft shots that go wide are not things most people take stats for. The fact that both Klingberg and Fowler appear on that certain stat of yours should tell you that its not the be all end all of the debate, considering both were on the Anaheim team that had a god awful powerplay.

He likely holds onto the Ducks too long because his teammates don't move and the opposing team have passing lanes covered forcing him to shoot which isn't his strong suit, which is fine, Neidermayer didn't have a good shot either. Fowler is a roving PP D. He's not a trigger man.