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Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

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Hockey Duckie said:
Murray's mistake in drafting was being forward biased between 2016-2018. We drafted only two defensemen during the three drafts in Mahura (Rd 3, 2016) and Drew (Rd 6, 2018), but Drew transitioned into becoming a forward. Murray forced himself into drafting forwards, using the many darts to find one or two that stick in preparation of the Twins retiring. Unfortunately, the highest pick the Ducks owned was #23 in the 2018 draft (Lundy), followed by #24 & #30 in the 2016 draft (Jones and Steel respectively), and no 1st round pick in 2017. Lundy is the only forward that remains from that draft set. We strayed away from our scouting bread and butter with d-men.

The moment Murray went back to a balanced draft, we were hitting on defensemen!
  • 2019
    • Rd 2. LD LaCombe
      (I have no info about LaCombe playing RD in high school, but he did in college)
    • Rd 4. LD Thrun
  • 2020
    • Rd 1. RD Drysdale
    • Rd 3. RD Moore (potentially, both Murray and Verbeek are high on him)
  • 2021
    • Rd 2. LD/RD Zellweger
    • Rd 3. LD/RD Hinds (potentially)

Drysdale got in 24 NHL games in as an 18-year old. LaCombe and Thrun were full time NHL'ers last year, 2023-24 season. Zellweger and Hinds went pro (AHL) last year. Moore is a senior in college. Drafting is important beyond the top-10, but it might take years to see their fruition... if they develop.

Because Verbeek's pro scouting acquisitions were mostly not great to abysmal the past two seasons, I shudder to think how the team would have progressed if Verbeek bypassed the Verbeekening. Anaheim should not be rushing some prospects, but Verbeek has. The Verbeekening gave Verbeek years to mask mistakes. Hopefully, he can figure things out by year 4 and 5.
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So it's OK when Murray rushes prospects like Fowler, Lundestrom and Drysdale who went straight to NHL but when Verbeek let's 2nd overall pick (who would have been #1 in some previous drafts) go straight to NHL with maintenance days off it's bad ?

Carlsson wasn't really rushed, like Fantilli he had a better point per game rate as rookies than previous #1 overall picks. Both Carlsson and Fantill would have been 1st overalls over in some previous drafts like 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019. I take him over power even with Power being 6'6 he's got a weak shot and is a gentle giant. I take them over Hughes in 2019 because of their size, skill, speed, ceiling. Hughes seems like the kind of guy who will peak in regular season and then gets pushed around in the playoffs. While Carlsson and Fantill seem more like a Barkov and Tkachuk

Mintyukov and Luneau didn't go straight to NHL, they had a year of development before debuting unlike Fowler and Drysdale. Verbeek also let Zellweger continue to develop before his NHL debut. If there is someone who rushed prospects in was Murray. He rushed soft (Fowler) and undersized(Drysdale) dmen.

Now if Verbeek let's Sennecke play more than 8 games in NHL this season than yeah he rushed someone.
 
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Anaheim4ever said:
So it's OK when Murray rushes prospects like Fowler, Lundestrom and Drysdale who went straight to NHL but when Verbeek let's 2nd overall pick (who would have been #1 in some previous drafts) go straight to NHL with maintenance days off it's bad ?

Carlsson wasn't really rushed, like Fantilli he had a better point per game rate as rookies than previous #1 overall picks. Both Carlsson and Fantill would have been 1st overalls over in some previous drafts like 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019. I take him over power even with Power being 6'6 he's got a weak shot and is a gentle giant. I take them over Hughes in 2019 because of their size, skill, speed, ceiling. Hughes seems like the kind of guy who will peak in regular season and then gets pushed around in the playoffs. While Carlsson and Fantill seem more like a Barkov and Tkachuk

Mintyukov and Luneau didn't go straight to NHL, they had a year of development before debuting unlike Fowler and Drysdale. Verbeek also let Zellweger continue to develop before his NHL debut. If there is someone who rushed prospects in was Murray. He rushed soft (Fowler) and undersized(Drysdale) dmen.

Now if Verbeek let's Sennecke play more than 8 games in NHL this season than yeah he rushed someone.
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Fowler, Drysdale, Lundestrom, Mintyukov, LaCombe, and McTavish all could have used time in the AHL (yeah, I know, McTavish couldn’t, but he still could have used it). Carlsson was injured twice in the NHL this year because he’s not even remotely physically mature, so he also was rushed regardless of production IMO.

Rushed less than someone else is still rushed.
 
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Anaheim4ever said:
So it's OK when Murray rushes prospects like Fowler, Lundestrom and Drysdale who went straight to NHL but when Verbeek let's 2nd overall pick (who would have been #1 in some previous drafts) go straight to NHL with maintenance days off it's bad ?

Carlsson wasn't really rushed, like Fantilli he had a better point per game rate as rookies than previous #1 overall picks. Both Carlsson and Fantill would have been 1st overalls over in some previous drafts like 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019. I take him over power even with Power being 6'6 he's got a weak shot and is a gentle giant. I take them over Hughes in 2019 because of their size, skill, speed, ceiling. Hughes seems like the kind of guy who will peak in regular season and then gets pushed around in the playoffs. While Carlsson and Fantill seem more like a Barkov and Tkachuk

Mintyukov and Luneau didn't go straight to NHL, they had a year of development before debuting unlike Fowler and Drysdale. Verbeek also let Zellweger continue to develop before his NHL debut. If there is someone who rushed prospects in was Murray. He rushed soft (Fowler) and undersized(Drysdale) dmen.

Now if Verbeek let's Sennecke play more than 8 games in NHL this season than yeah he rushed someone.
Click to expand...

Fowler played 76 games at 22:08 ATOI while scoring 40 points, which ranked 7th best in team scoring. Fowler proved he was ready as an OFD in the NHL as an 18-year old.

Drysdale won AHL rookie of the month, beating out Zegras and then played 24 NHL games in his D+1 season. Drysdale proved he was too good for the AHL as an 18-year old. In his D+2 season, Drysdale played in 81 NHL games at 19:56 ATOI, while scoring 32 points. He looked much better in his D+2 season in the NHL as he didn't look lost like he did in his final 12 NHL games in his D+1 season. Then he got into a freak accident in his D+3 season that cost him the season. In his D+4 season, he didn't get any training camp session nor pre-season games to ramp up the physical play and that eventually lead to injuries (see Z as corroborative proof of no pre-season lead to injuries).

=== You are wrong about Drysdale going straight to the NHL. He earned his way up (thanks to COVID) and was considered a rookie in his D+2 season, along with Z. ===

As for Lundy, the team actually sent him down to the AHL as well as back to Europe in his D+1 season. A huge reason why Lundy got 15 NHL games as an 18-year old was due to a number of factors: 1) mass injuries down the middle, 2) Steel wasn't ready defensively like Lundy was. Once centers got healthy again, Lundy was sent down to the AHL and eventually sent back to Sweden. With only 15 NHL games, Lundy would still be considered a rookie the following NHL season. Lundy didn't become a full-time NHL'er until his D+3 season, but that season was also shortened. Lundy's offense didn't show up on NA ice, but, surprisingly, it did on Swedish ice. Why Lundy can't translate Swedish ice offense onto NA ice offense is baffling. Lundy wasn't rushed.

I would have preferred Lundy stay in the Sweden in his D+1 season, but it didn't really matter much because he was sent back to Sweden in his D+1 season. The lack of offense appears to be a mindset of playing in Sweden vs playing on NA ice. He can produce across the pond offensively, but not on NA ice.

Lundy was denoted as one of the few 2018 prospects that could go to the NHL right away, mainly due to his skating and high-level defense.

Lundy
D+1: 15 NHL games
D+2: 17 NHL games
D+3: 41 NHL games (COVID season)
D+4: 80 NHL games

====================
Carlsson
====================

I don't know why you'd carry water for Carlsson not being rushed when Verbeek put him on "load mgmt" program b/c he wasn't ready for full-time NHL status. That alone disproves your notion that Carlsson wasn't rushed.

But if you keep harping about being #1 overall talent, then let's compare Carlsson to the smaller statured Connor Bedard.

Bedard: 68 games, 22g + 39a = 61 pts (0.90 ppg rate), 19:47 ATOI
Carlsson: 55 games, 12g + 17a = 29 pts (0.53 ppg rate), 18:07 ATOI

Carlsson didn't perform like Bedard and Carlsson's ppg rate probably would have been worse if he were not forced onto the "load mgmt" program b/c he'd probably get injured early into the season like most of our other youths.

====================
Minty
====================

Minty should have taken the Zellweger path to the NHL. Once Minty was exposed into a 2nd pairing role, then his defense was exploited. His +/- rating would be worse than LaCombe's if Minty was put into a top-pairing role to start the season.

NHL rookie season
Minty, D+2: 63 games, 4g + 24a = 28 pts (0.44 ppg), 18:51 ATOI
Fowler, D+1: 76 games, 10g + 30a = 40 pts (0.53 ppg), 22:08 ATOI

I think you're barking up the wrong tree about Fowler being rushed when he outperformed Minty offensively, ATOI, and being more durable to play more games while being a year younger than Minty.

====================
Luneau
====================

Luneau was rushed to the NHL in his D+2 season because he didn't qualify to go to the AHL due to CHL/NHL age restrictions. He was also put on a "load mgmt" process because Verbeek wanted to develop Luneau's body faster. That's code for "body not ready for full-time NHL". In doing the "load mgmt", Verbeek stalled Luneau's skill and in-game development by a year due to the load mgmt and knee infection at the WJC-20.

Luneau should have just been kept in the CHL for his D+2 season to continue to develop his skills.
===================
Zellweger
===================

Zell was a Murray pick. Murray let Zell stew in the CHL in his D+1 season. Zell didn't even get a 9-game preview in his D+1 season like McTavish did. Pretty sure Murray would have let Zell develop the same way under Verbeek b/c Zell needed more bulking up on his small frame. Plus, Zell couldn't qualify for the AHL in his D+2 season he just turned 19 in Sept of that year.

Sorry, but you can't attribute Murray rushing Zell. Murray was a defensemen when he played and they (Murray and Madden) kinda know what they're doing with defensemen. Plus, if Murray remained GM, then he would have retained Lindholm. LD1 = Lindholm, LD2 = Fowler. LD3 = Benoit, Mahura, or possibly Thrun. The team could afford to take it's time on Zell.
 
Ducks DVM said:
Fowler, Drysdale, Lundestrom, Mintyukov, LaCombe, and McTavish all could have used time in the AHL (yeah, I know, McTavish couldn’t, but he still could have used it). Carlsson was injured twice in the NHL this year because he’s not even remotely physically mature, so he also was rushed regardless of production IMO.

Rushed less than someone else is still rushed.
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just my opinion, but LaCombe wasn't rushed to the NHL. LaCombe was rushed to the top pairing, which is a significant difference. He was fine to start the season with Gudas as a 2nd pairing. Once LaCombe got over the rush of playing top pairing d, he was finally able to settle in. His game didn't stall or falter as the season went. LaCombe's offense and defense came to life in the 2nd half.

LaCombe
Game SetGamesGAPtsPPG+/-HitsBlocksPlaying
1 to 6971215170.24-2450129.
1 to 660110.171310Pair 2
7 to 20140220.14-171518Pair 1
21 to 40200440.20-71441Pair 1 to 3
41 to 60201560.30-21343Pair 1 to 3
61 to 71111340.361517Pair 1 to 2

We actually won more games with LaCombe as RD1 to start the season over anyone else that played RD1, despite LaCombe's -17 rating.

DucksRookie DEnd of Season
PlayerGame setGamesGAPtsPPG+/-HitsBlocksComments
LaCombe49 to 71231780.3511244From Feb 19 to Apr 18
Minty41 to 63232790.39-92922from Feb 13 to Mar 30
Zell5 to 26222680.36-81033From Mar 1 to Apr 18

Who would have thought that LaCombe had offense similar to Zell to end the season? Defensively, LaCombe is ahead of both Minty and Zell.

As for Mac, I thought the way he was put through the NHL was fine. He started off as 2LW. Then worked his way up from 4C to 1C and settled on 2C. He proved to be a better center than Strome and became 2C. The problem was we didn't have better vets to shelter Mac since Mac wasn't eligible for the AHL. Mac actually earned his way to a top-6C position; not gifted a 1C position like Carlsson. I'd agree that Mac would have been served better by going to the AHL first, but that option wasn't available.
 
we’ll see, this is the year where they have to really improve by 8-10 points at least in the standings to be able to say that we’re on the right trajectory.

Until this point we’ve just had way too little depth and top end skill to do anything. I mean, what were the expectations? The injuries last year would have been a killer for almost any team and then it’s compounded by being a team that lacks scoring depth to begin with. That should be starting to change
 
Hockey Duckie said:
Verbeek getting desperate, but probably didn't put in enough money or term or both. And to think, Lindholm was willing to stay for less than $6.5 mil for 8-years and is an actual top pairing d-man.
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Yeah , you sign him as a top pairing d and by the 4-5th year, if not less with his recent injuries, he is not a top pairing d man but rather an overpaid injury prone cone.

Same reason Verbeek didn’t get Montour, he wasn’t willing on 8 years.

He’s not getting desperate if he’s offering a short term deal…..

Verbeek has done a fine job so far, however let’s fixate on trivial information. he’s actually being calculated, not desperate.

A lot of people complain about him not making moves and I am sure the same people would complain if he were-to, as well.
 
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LeBrun is a Clown said:
Yeah , you sign him as a top pairing d and by the 4-5th year, if not less with his recent injuries, he is not a top pairing d man but rather an overpaid injury prone cone.

Same reason Verbeek didn’t get Montour, he wasn’t willing on 8 years.

He’s not getting desperate if he’s offering a short term deal…..

Verbeek has done a fine job so far, however let’s fixate on trivial information. he’s actually being calculated, not desperate.

A lot of people complain about him not making moves and I am sure the same people would complain if he were-to, as well.
Click to expand...

You do know Verbeek signed Killorn and Gudas. Killorn will be 37 years old in his final year at $6.25 mil AAV. Gudas will be 35 years old in his final year at $4.0 mil AAV. But it's okay for you to project a player's usage? (That's rhetorical.) Lindholm will only be 31 years old in year 4 of his 8-year contract with Boston at $6.5 mil AAV; he will be 35 years old going into year 8 of his contract, which matches up with Gudas. Lindholm was willing to stay for less money.

Is offering less than the market in terms of $ and term just for show to say Verbeek is active? Although, it is interesting that he was in on Monty when we never should have been. Grateful that Seattle outbid us for his services. We have a plethora of projected, top-end OFD's in the system.

I dunno if you know my stance to "fixate on trivial info" when I'm expectedly content on this year being another development season. No idea why you use my quote to elevate yourself by lumping me in with "a lot of people complaing about him not making moves."
 
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This is pretty much the risk of a scorched Earth rebuild and what we're now enduring. If you don't snag a Bedard/Celebrini and end up with the bubble "wait and see" guys that will likely take years to start hitting their NHL stride (Carlsson/Mintyukov/Sennecke/McTavish/Zegras/etc.), you're going to have lots of growing pains and misery.

Verbeek can't really do much to fix this from the outside. Nobody wants to play for a perpetual bottomfeeder that hasn't shown much of a sign of life thus far.
 
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Reveille1984 said:
This is pretty much the risk of a scorched Earth rebuild and what we're now enduring. If you don't snag a Bedard/Celebrini and end up with the bubble "wait and see" guys that will likely take years to start hitting their NHL stride (Carlsson/Mintyukov/Sennecke/McTavish/Zegras/etc.), you're going to have lots of growing pains and misery.

Verbeek can't really do much to fix this from the outside. Nobody wants to play for a perpetual bottomfeeder that hasn't shown much of a sign of life thus far.
Click to expand...

We had one rookie two years ago in Mac. Last year, we had seven rookies in Carlsson, Minty, LaCombe, Luneau (still a rookie), Zell, Dostal, and Groulx. Even if you snag a Bedard or Celebrini, the rest of the roster needs filling out too.

Therein lies part of the problem the rebuild is slow, outside the org signings haven't been great. Maybe Verbeek signed the wrong Strome brother. Who knows what Verbeek was thinking about with defensive guys two summers ago, but signing Klingberg was a pro scouting bomb. Then again, we would not have had Carlsson if we didn't bomb so hard.

Last year's team was plagued by two factors: new coaches (HC and PK) and injuries. Injuries isn't a new factor to the Ducks, but how the coaching staff handles the team with those injuries matter. Last year's team actually had enough good talent to absorb injuries, but the coaching staff was unable to produce a good offensive scheme, improve the PK unit, keep the youths healthy (instead of playing through injury), and be a disciplined unit. If Cronin can lay off the "fire hose" throttle and keep the team healthy to be on the ice more often, then those talents alone can improve the team's scoring despite the lack of an offensive scheme.

Verbeek doesn't have to fix things overnight, but he does have the capacity to improve things from season to season. From outside the org, Verbeek is in charge of players as well as coaching staff. Gudas and Lybushkin were a good get last year. We got a new PP coach this summer, who looks promising. I am still not enamored with our HC and PK coaches right now. Maybe they can improve too? We'll find out soon. It's September already!
 
Reveille1984 said:
This is pretty much the risk of a scorched Earth rebuild and what we're now enduring. If you don't snag a Bedard/Celebrini and end up with the bubble "wait and see" guys that will likely take years to start hitting their NHL stride (Carlsson/Mintyukov/Sennecke/McTavish/Zegras/etc.), you're going to have lots of growing pains and misery.

Verbeek can't really do much to fix this from the outside. Nobody wants to play for a perpetual bottomfeeder that hasn't shown much of a sign of life thus far.
Click to expand...
Good argument against doing it in the first place.
 
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Reveille1984 said:
This is pretty much the risk of a scorched Earth rebuild and what we're now enduring. If you don't snag a Bedard/Celebrini and end up with the bubble "wait and see" guys that will likely take years to start hitting their NHL stride (Carlsson/Mintyukov/Sennecke/McTavish/Zegras/etc.), you're going to have lots of growing pains and misery.

Verbeek can't really do much to fix this from the outside. Nobody wants to play for a perpetual bottomfeeder that hasn't shown much of a sign of life thus far.
Click to expand...
We did get that guy. Carlsson is as good or better of a prospect then Celebrini.

It still takes time.
 
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Hockey Duckie said:
Therein lies part of the problem the rebuild is slow, outside the org signings haven't been great. Maybe Verbeek signed the wrong Strome brother.
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He sure did.

1725315491703.png


Matt Strome was right there ready to go!
 
DavidBL said:
No one outside of this board seems to actually believe that.
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I’m not sure I believe it either, although I think it’s close.

It seems as though this board is lower on Celebrini than consensus. To me, he’s an above average 1st overall. I’m not quite sure Carlsson would have been

I do think Carlsson might have the higher upside

It’s tough to compare at this point

All in all, I’m a huge believer in both players. I think theyll easily become top 15 centers in the NHL for a few seasons at least.
 
AngelDuck said:
I’m not sure I believe it either, although I think it’s close.

It seems as though this board is lower on Celebrini than consensus. To me, he’s an above average 1st overall. I’m not quite sure Carlsson would have been

I do think Carlsson might have the higher upside

It’s tough to compare at this point

All in all, I’m a huge believer in both players. I think theyll easily become top 15 centers in the NHL for a few seasons at least.
Click to expand...
I feel the consensus is that Celebrini is closer to Bedard then Carlsson is to Celebrini.
 
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