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Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

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DavidBL said:
That's simply not true. It's just the common trope thrown around online. The Ducks didn't tear everything down and still got 3 top 10 picks including a 3rd overall. BM wasn't really trying to make the team better, he was letting the team bottom out naturally without voiding the team of higher end talent like Lindholm. I mean it's not like PV traded away all that many players, it was just 3 guys with key roles.
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To this point, the ducks are not a successful rebuild. Far from it. They'd have been better off had they had high picks - full stop. And "top 10" is not the same thing as top overall.

Beyond that, what is the point of letting a team "bottom out naturally." What interest does that serve? How does that lead to Stanley cups? I'll eagerly wait for that explanation.
 
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Dryish said:
Just tell everyone you meet how Perron was a great player and you'll hit it off well. We loved him as a Duck. It's too bad we couldn't offer him enough to lure him out of his desire to return to St. Louis cause he had such good chemistry with Getzlaf that basically Perry was the only one ever to beat that.
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I will absolutely do that. Also, I swear to god for a few years I really contemplated getting an orange alternate Perron jersey bc I’ve always loved the OG logo.

He’s always been one of my favorite Blues, and I’m so glad he was on the team that finally broke through and won the Cup.
 
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The Duck Knight said:
The Sharks haven't done anything remotely meaningful other than win the lottery.
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Grier is doing a decent job rebuilding the mess that Doug Wilson left him with though, I’d say.

Like, they’re going to be horrible the next 3 years. But they have a future. More than you could say 2 years ago

Grier was left with a similar mess that PV was left with. Arguably even worse

It takes time
 
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duckpuck said:
To this point, the ducks are not a successful rebuild. Far from it. They'd have been better off had they had high picks - full stop. And "top 10" is not the same thing as top overall.

Beyond that, what is the point of letting a team "bottom out naturally." What interest does that serve? How does that lead to Stanley cups? I'll eagerly wait for that explanation.
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Huh?

  • Murray Rebuild Drafts
    • 2019
      • 9th OA C Zegras
      • Rd 2 LD/RD LaCombe (Rookie last year)
      • Rd 4 LD Thrun (Traded)
    • 2020
      • 6th OA RD Drysdale
      • Rd 2 RW Colangelo (will be a pro rookie this coming season)
    • 2021
      • 3rd OA C McTavish
      • Rd 2 LD/RD Zellweger (Rookie last year)

  • Verbeek Rebuild Drafts
    • 2022:
      • 10th OA LD Minty
      • Rd 2 RD Luneau
    • 2023: 2nd OA C Carlsson
    • 2024: 3rd OA RW Sennecke

With Murray, he likes layering, player duos, DFD-OFD pairings, and some bite with his roster. The crazy part is in the 2021-22 season, his team was a fringe playoff team before Verbeek blew it up at the TDL, 4 points out of 3rd place in Pacific. That was Z and Drysdale's first, full NHL season too. The team had a true #1 pairing D in Lindholm and a couple of 2nd pairing D-men in Fowler along with Manson. Who knows if Thrun would have signed after his junior season if Murray wasn't a belligerent drunk. There's talent there in the pipeline before Verbeek got here.

If Murray wasn't a belligerent drunk, then the next steps would have been keeping the positives on the team (Lindholm, Manson, and Des) and adding talent via FA/trade to push higher playoff chance while waiting on the youths to develop. Also, RD Luneau probably would have been a Murray pick in the 2nd round.

As you can see, all of our non top-10 prospects take time to get to the NHL under the Murray rebuild. The same waiting period will be similar under Verbeek, but getting back to relevancy might take longer b/c we don't have higher end veterans on the team. Anaheim has to develop those higher end talents through their prospects.
 
duckpuck said:
To this point, the ducks are not a successful rebuild. Far from it. They'd have been better off had they had high picks - full stop. And "top 10" is not the same thing as top overall.

Beyond that, what is the point of letting a team "bottom out naturally." What interest does that serve? How does that lead to Stanley cups? I'll eagerly wait for that explanation.
Click to expand...

Can’t speak for everything the Blackhawks did up to the run, obviously Toews and Kane were the pieces that pushed them over the top. They already had Seabrook, Keith, and Crawford. Hossa helped to keep things going in the teens.

But they were pretty bad for a while. Whether it was natural rebuild decline or naturally not very good.

Most teams in decline have to tear things down and start over. Some teams, like the Kings don’t. They are the worst example of not bottoming out. First round exits with an aging team is just kicking the can. They got a miracle with PLD, but they are hurting.

John
 
70sSanO said:
Can’t speak for everything the Blackhawks did up to the run, obviously Toews and Kane were the pieces that pushed them over the top. They already had Seabrook, Keith, and Crawford. Hossa helped to keep things going in the teens.

But they were pretty bad for a while. Whether it was natural rebuild decline or naturally not very good.

Most teams in decline have to tear things down and start over. Some teams, like the Kings don’t. They are the worst example of not bottoming out. First round exits with an aging team is just kicking the can. They got a miracle with PLD, but they are hurting.

John
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I thought that Doughty forced the Kings to abandon the rebuild by trading prospects for NHL talent now instead of waiting an extra year or two to add more prospects.

We should be aware not to follow the Kings' lead of being impatient coming out of a rebuild because some are tired of losing.
 
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Well Doughty has positioned himself as their top Dman for the foreseeable future.

Clarke is still trying to find himself, Faber is tearing it up in Minnesota, Roy and Durzi are gone.

John
 
duckpuck said:
To this point, the ducks are not a successful rebuild. Far from it. They'd have been better off had they had high picks - full stop. And "top 10" is not the same thing as top overall.

Beyond that, what is the point of letting a team "bottom out naturally." What interest does that serve? How does that lead to Stanley cups? I'll eagerly wait for that explanation.
Click to expand...
And we don't know if it ever will be even though we did what most wanted once PV got here. The irony of your comment is that we probably got the best prospect with our #9 than we did with the #6 and quite possibly even the #3. To say, high picks don't guarantee anything. They just increase the chances. Let's not also not forget at the time PV decided to tear down to the bones Drysdale had his 34 pt rookie season at 19 after the time in the AHL where IIRC he's was PPG.

What I mean from "bottom out naturally" is that we stopped trying to add external talent but didn't jettison the talent we had. We got the high picks while maintaining the support group around them. Imo that makes it easier to transition from a bottom feeder, like we are now, to being more completive. This summer proves that adding good players is hard when your team isn't doing well and hasn't been for years. We saw glimpses in 21-22 where we went from the 2nd worst to 10th worst, no matter how you slice it, it was forward growth. At that time we had 3 good young top picks, Terry breaking out and support with an aging Getzlaf, who we never replaced, among others to mentor the kids. We'll never know what we could have done if we continued to support that team rather than jettisoning the aging talent we had left. I get what the situation was, I do, and even now I can't fully disagree with the moves in a vacumn but we can't deny that it made the team worse, which of course, a lot of people wanted for the coveted chance at 1st which we have yet to win and the chances will ALWAYS be greater that we won't win than actually winning. Instead of Carlsson and Senneke we might have Benson and Buium but also have a lot less growth to do to become a good team. Instead, there is a very real chance that we finish bottom 5 again. That's 4 years with a bottom 5 finish in 5 years if we do. And a near miss at 6oa. 2 teams since 2010, from what I can tell, have done this. Florida and Buffalo. Florida missed on Gudbranson who was their first of the 4 in 2010 and was a bubble team by 2015 and in the playoffs by 2016, nor did they have a Z or Drysdale type prospect from their non bottom 5 finishes. Buffalo is still rebuilding. No other team has had more than 3. All this to say that this level of futility doesn't lead to cups. Teams generally start digging out of the hole after 3 years, which ironically we were before PV took over. Imo if we're not a bubble team this year than PVs rebuild will be suspect to say the least. This team really could have used some help to push them forward so all of that pressure wouldn't be on 19-23 year olds.
 
Anyone else think it may be worth it to snag Tyson Barrie? good teammate, shouldnt cost a lot, can run a PP, and is a right handed shot.
Plus if he does well you can move him at the deadline for a pick.
 
Johnnyduck said:
Anyone else think it may be worth it to snag Tyson Barrie? good teammate, shouldnt cost a lot, can run a PP, and is a right handed shot.
Plus if he does well you can move him at the deadline for a pick.
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Nope. That has Klingberg 2.0 written all over it. Besides we want Zell, Minty etc to get those PP minutes.
 
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DavidBL said:
Nope. That has Klingberg 2.0 written all over it. Besides we want Zell, Minty etc to get those PP minutes.
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I had a feeling someone would say that, but at the end of the day what did we really lose? nothing, just henry's money... also klingberg was at 6 mill, we could probably get Tyson for half that. I think what he brings to a locker room is worth that alone. everywhere he goes his teammates love him.

Both Zell and Minty are L shot. If anything you're cutting Dumoulins ice time for half a season, in which case, who cares.
 
Johnnyduck said:
I had a feeling someone would say that, but at the end of the day what did we really lose? nothing, just henry's money... also klingberg was at 6 mill, we could probably get Tyson for half that. I think what he brings to a locker room is worth that alone. everywhere he goes his teammates love him.

Both Zell and Minty are L shot. If anything you're cutting Dumoulins ice time for half a season, in which case, who cares.
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I was thinking more if the PP time. Zell is likely playing RD.
 
Johnnyduck said:
I had a feeling someone would say that, but at the end of the day what did we really lose? nothing, just henry's money... also klingberg was at 6 mill, we could probably get Tyson for half that. I think what he brings to a locker room is worth that alone. everywhere he goes his teammates love him.

Both Zell and Minty are L shot. If anything you're cutting Dumoulins ice time for half a season, in which case, who cares.
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Klingberg was $7 million IIRC but I think Barrie gets signed for $1 million somewhere.
 
Johnnyduck said:
I had a feeling someone would say that, but at the end of the day what did we really lose? nothing, just henry's money... also klingberg was at 6 mill, we could probably get Tyson for half that. I think what he brings to a locker room is worth that alone. everywhere he goes his teammates love him.

Both Zell and Minty are L shot. If anything you're cutting Dumoulins ice time for half a season, in which case, who cares.
Click to expand...
If Barrie were a PK specialist instead of a PP specialist, then I could see the value. But over the last few years, he really only brings value on the PP (and he didn’t even really do that in Nashville), and that means he takes that ice time from our young, skilled dmen. He is just not good enough at even strength (or PK) to justify giving him a roster spot.
 
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DavidBL said:
And we don't know if it ever will be even though we did what most wanted once PV got here. The irony of your comment is that we probably got the best prospect with our #9 than we did with the #6 and quite possibly even the #3. To say, high picks don't guarantee anything. They just increase the chances. Let's not also not forget at the time PV decided to tear down to the bones Drysdale had his 34 pt rookie season at 19 after the time in the AHL where IIRC he's was PPG.

What I mean from "bottom out naturally" is that we stopped trying to add external talent but didn't jettison the talent we had. We got the high picks while maintaining the support group around them. Imo that makes it easier to transition from a bottom feeder, like we are now, to being more completive. This summer proves that adding good players is hard when your team isn't doing well and hasn't been for years. We saw glimpses in 21-22 where we went from the 2nd worst to 10th worst, no matter how you slice it, it was forward growth. At that time we had 3 good young top picks, Terry breaking out and support with an aging Getzlaf, who we never replaced, among others to mentor the kids. We'll never know what we could have done if we continued to support that team rather than jettisoning the aging talent we had left. I get what the situation was, I do, and even now I can't fully disagree with the moves in a vacumn but we can't deny that it made the team worse, which of course, a lot of people wanted for the coveted chance at 1st which we have yet to win and the chances will ALWAYS be greater that we won't win than actually winning. Instead of Carlsson and Senneke we might have Benson and Buium but also have a lot less growth to do to become a good team. Instead, there is a very real chance that we finish bottom 5 again. That's 4 years with a bottom 5 finish in 5 years if we do. And a near miss at 6oa. 2 teams since 2010, from what I can tell, have done this. Florida and Buffalo. Florida missed on Gudbranson who was their first of the 4 in 2010 and was a bubble team by 2015 and in the playoffs by 2016, nor did they have a Z or Drysdale type prospect from their non bottom 5 finishes. Buffalo is still rebuilding. No other team has had more than 3. All this to say that this level of futility doesn't lead to cups. Teams generally start digging out of the hole after 3 years, which ironically we were before PV took over. Imo if we're not a bubble team this year than PVs rebuild will be suspect to say the least. This team really could have used some help to push them forward so all of that pressure wouldn't be on 19-23 year olds.
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When you are talking about not "jettison[ing] the talent we had," are you referring to Lindholm, Manson, and Rakell? Manson had a decent year last year on an elite Colorado team, but he'd been mediocre at best before we traded him and was injured in 22-23. Rakell had a very solid season playing alongside Malkin in 22-23, but took a steep decline last season. Then there's Lindholm who has been his good self.

But we need to look at context: Lindholm (top of the league team), Manson (top of the league team), Rakell (middle of the league team, but playing alongside very good players). The Ducks could not have offered that environment to those guys, and we know how well they would have performed in the environment the Ducks offered. They were doing it before they were traded and all three of them were fine. Not great, but fine. And all three were approaching their 30s.

This also assumes that all three would have re-signed here. Lindholm seems like he was open to it based on his comments, and perhaps Manson, but we don't know about Rakell.

So what's the difference if those guys had stayed? The Ducks pick a couple spots later in 2022 and may or may not get Mintyukov. They certainly don't get Carlsson in 2023. But they're still bad. Adding Lindholm and Manson to this roster certainly would have made it better, but they're maybe 10-14 points better? I don't think that's worth losing Carlsson.

I also am not sure what pressure there is on the 19-23 year-olds. They're playing hockey in Anaheim, California for a team that's not expecting to contend. There is as little pressure on them as is possible in the NHL.

I want this team to be good as much as anyone. I hate the losing. But this team still would have lost the last two seasons, even with those guys. Bob Murray made sure of that. And they wouldn't have a potential franchise player to show for the losing. So we'd be Arizona without the exciting new owner. Maybe Ottawa. So when you say "this level of losing doesn't lead to Cups," I'm not sure what level of losing DOES lead to Cups. The Ducks would have lost less, but they would have lost. So would being the 8th-12th worst team in the league instead of bottom 3 lead to a Cup?

One thing we do know about Cup winners - they all have elite players, and the best way (in fact, realistically, the only way as a small market team) to get an elite player is to bottom out and hope draft luck goes your way. The Ducks did that for Carlsson. Now we wait, as painful as that is.
 
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CrazyDuck4u said:
At this point PV is going to let Leanue play full time.. He kind of hinted it.
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Given Luneau's injury last year I'd be a bit surprised if he started the year in the NHL this year. He just hasn't played enough games. But we'll see.

Besides that though, having 2 guys on D who will barely be 21 when the season starts and another who is 20 is not a good omen for how the year is going to go.
 
tomd said:
Given Luneau's injury last year I'd be a bit surprised if he started the year in the NHL this year. He just hasn't played enough games. But we'll see.

Besides that though, having 2 guys on D who will barely be 21 when the season starts and another who is 20 is not a good omen for how the year is going to go.
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Yup.. We going to be bottom 5 team again.. SO much for top 6 fwd and top 4 right handed d
 
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