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Speculation: 2024-25 Coaching/Management/Ownership

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Mr Rogers said:
Agree to disagree i guess. Neither of us can actually prove we're right, but i think Pat is genuinely pretty satisfied with Cronin. We haven't heard anything that'd suggest Pat is looking for a replacement, he has in fact passed up an opportunity or two where he could've hired somebody or at least shown interest in a coach mid-season but again no evidence that that was even on his radar.
Click to expand...
For sure, I mean all we can do is speculate. I would just say that there hasn't been an interesting, newly available coach since last off-season. Montgomery was never truly available, he practically had a deal with St. Louis before he was even let go.

And not hearing anything =/= nothing happening in this org. The Gauthier/Drysdale trade was a pretty huge move that had complete radio silence.
 
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zegrassyknoll said:
For sure, I mean all we can do is speculate. I would just say that there hasn't been an interesting, newly available coach since last off-season. Montgomery was never truly available, he practically had a deal with St. Louis before he was even let go.

And not hearing anything =/= nothing happening in this org. The Gauthier/Drysdale trade was a pretty huge move that had complete radio silence.
Click to expand...
Well there have been intriguing idle coaches available as well like McClellan but again zero mention of us having any interest from league insiders. We're quiet for sure but literally no mention of anything. Could be all smoke and mirrors sure but i'm considering this in the context of positive comments he's made about him and am taking Pat for his word i guess. We'll see.

I think Pat is really a fan of Cronin's hard-driving style and there could be cultural things/changes that he's really liked but that aren't even remotely quantifiable. I think i've mentioned that possibility before.
 
Cronin is not be a good coach at all but there is no denying he's made this team have more fight in it to want to win games that they didn't have in the Eakins teams and he's more for players standing up for each other and not having the Terry black eye incident happen again. Eakin's style the team was super laid back and ok with mailing it in because coach is a softy who won't get upset. They needed a harder coach to motivate them instead of fun time all the time.

If the Ducks want to avoid being Buffalo 2.0, they needed that kind of hard coach for a few seasons.
It really seems like they want to come back in games instead of just putting their head down and accepting defeat.
 
Mr Rogers said:
Well there have been intriguing idle coaches available as well like McClellan but again zero mention of us having any interest from league insiders. We're quiet for sure but literally no mention of anything. Could be all smoke and mirrors sure but i'm considering this in the context of positive comments he's made about him and am taking Pat for his word i guess. We'll see.

I think Pat is really a fan of Cronin's hard-driving style and there could be cultural things/changes that he's really liked but that aren't even remotely quantifiable. I think i've mentioned that possibility before.
Click to expand...
I agree with this completely, and I think it absolutely has some value.

The problem is that we're at an inflection point in our rebuild - Verbeek has to decide if he wants to keep "building culture" or start winning more games. Pat was recently quoted saying he wants to score 250+ goals and the teams that do that are the ones who are actually good at the quantifiable stuff. So his choices are either:

#1 Keep working on the intangibles with Cronin and accept that we won't score as many goals (something I disagree with, Pat seems to disagree with, but maybe Cronin would be effective at)

#2 New coach

#3 Try to score more goals with Cronin (something I disagree with and that Cronin is objectively bad at)

IMO Option 1 is a mistake but Option 3 would be blatant stupidity and a fireable offense.
 
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zegrassyknoll said:
I agree with this completely, and I think it absolutely has some value.

The problem is that we're at an inflection point in our rebuild - Verbeek has to decide if he wants to keep "building culture" or start winning more games. Pat was recently quoted saying he wants to score 250+ goals and the teams that do that are the ones who are actually good at the quantifiable stuff. So his choices are either:

#1 Keep working on the intangibles with Cronin and accept that we won't score as many goals (something I disagree with, Pat seems to disagree with, but maybe Cronin would be effective at)

#2 New coach

#3 Try to score more goals with Cronin (something I disagree with and that Cronin is objectively bad at)

IMO Option 1 is a mistake but Option 3 would be blatant stupidity and a fireable offense.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with any of this, just think Pat might be on an entirely different page than a lot of us especially if we look like we did last night in a handful of these games down the stretch.
 
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zegrassyknoll said:
I agree with this completely, and I think it absolutely has some value.

The problem is that we're at an inflection point in our rebuild - Verbeek has to decide if he wants to keep "building culture" or start winning more games. Pat was recently quoted saying he wants to score 250+ goals and the teams that do that are the ones who are actually good at the quantifiable stuff. So his choices are either:

#1 Keep working on the intangibles with Cronin and accept that we won't score as many goals (something I disagree with, Pat seems to disagree with, but maybe Cronin would be effective at)

#2 New coach

#3 Try to score more goals with Cronin (something I disagree with and that Cronin is objectively bad at)

IMO Option 1 is a mistake but Option 3 would be blatant stupidity and a fireable offense.
Click to expand...
#4. Retain Cronin but “suggest” personnel usage that he might want to see. Perhaps Terry and Leo on the PK, for instance.
 
I think the exit interviews will be very informative for Verbeek. At the end of the day, he's going to ask his players how they feel about the coach and if they back him, he's here next year. If they voice issues, that's different. There's lots of data points and anecdotal evidence to show that Cronin has not been successful as the coach. IMO the players opinion will weigh heavier than a few more wins this season.

Personally, I think he's gone in the summer. I think the players don't like him, and the numbers don't support him.
 
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Hey234 said:
I think the exit interviews will be very informative for Verbeek. At the end of the day, he's going to ask his players how they feel about the coach and if they back him, he's here next year. If they voice issues, that's different. There's lots of data points and anecdotal evidence to show that Cronin has not been successful as the coach. IMO the players opinion will weigh heavier than a few more wins this season.

Personally, I think he's gone in the summer. I think the players don't like him, and the numbers don't support him.
Click to expand...
I agree so often I see players look miserable even if we score a goal. Fire them all
 
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Anaheim4ever said:
Cronin is not be a good coach at all but there is no denying he's made this team have more fight in it to want to win games that they didn't have in the Eakins teams and he's more for players standing up for each other and not having the Terry black eye incident happen again. Eakin's style the team was super laid back and ok with mailing it in because coach is a softy who won't get upset. They needed a harder coach to motivate them instead of fun time all the time.

If the Ducks want to avoid being Buffalo 2.0, they needed that kind of hard coach for a few seasons.
It really seems like they want to come back in games instead of just putting their head down and accepting defeat.
Click to expand...

Statistically and transactionally, all you said can't be backed up.

Pugilist and Physicality

Eakins did have pugilists on his roster before the Verbeekening. At the Verbeekening, Verbeek got rid of the team's physicality in Manson, Lindholm, and Des. Verbeek didn't replace any of them in 2022-23, Eakins' last season as coach. Last year, 2023-24, Verbeek added a physicality in RD Gudas, RD Lybushkin, and the hugger Johnston. This year, Verbeek added Dumo as well as swapped Fowler for Trouba to add more bite and fight.

In the graphic below, we see Des' fight card. Apparently, the team wasn't a push over. In fact, there were many complaints when Des played LW with Z in order to protect Z. Terry's blackeye is all due to Verbeek not replacing "Pugilist and Physicality" after the 2022 TDL, demasculinization of the Ducks.

1743106748272.png


Competitiveness

Maybe it is recency bias of beating an injured and talent depleted Boston team last night, but many have fallen asleep to many a Ducks game under Cronin for the past two years. Rarely were we entertained with our skaters and scheme under Cronin.

Yet, how do you compare competitiveness statistically? We can use regulation wins (RW), regulation points percentage (RgPt%), OTW, total points percentage (Pts Pct), and talent depth.

This year's Ducks roster has been the best collection of talent since 2018-19. We lost Fowler and Vaak early in the season and the blueline didn't miss a beat. We traded away Fowler and Vaak, traded for Trouba, and we had three blueline youths in a rotation where one would sit for a week or two. That is just our blueline. Our best scorer/60 is our third line center, McTavish. Colangelo, when put with offensive forwards, scores upon his call-ups. Nesterenko has been scoring in the bottom-6. The goaltenders are playing out of their minds! Together, Dostal and Gibby have a 33.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) production this season.

2024-25 Ducks Goalies Production (Source: Money Puck)
1743108826124.png


There was an abundance of talent infusion last year with the additions of F Killorn, C Carlsson, RD Gudas, RD Lyubushkin, LD Mintyukov, LD LaCombe, and LD Zellweger.

Three seasons ago, Verbeek compiled a roster made for tanking and without physicality. Remember that Verbeek offered Klingberg a multi-year deal, but Klingberg denied it like he denied Dallas' multi-year offer. Thankfully, Klingberg gave Verbeek a one-year, $7 mil prove it deal. New forward additions of Strome and Vatrano put up fewer points than rookie Mac with 43 points.


1743116025926.png


We can do an objective analysis of competitiveness by looking at difference between Pts Pct and RgPt%, which has been color coded from best to worst. Many fans made fun of the 2022-23 Ducks team because they didn't earn their first regulation win (RW) until their 20th game. That doesn't mean the Ducks didn't win any games until game 20. They actually went 6-13-1. Which means the team went into OT six times and came away with five wins. That is a huge sign of competitiveness to be going 6-0-1 in OT situations. Due to lack of talent on the roster is why they lost 13 games in regulation time.

Regulation Wins (RW) can be considered your talent base. The OTW (overtime wins) can be seen as overachieving. In the past four years, the 2022-23 team was by far the weakest in RW and most OTW. That team overachieved, as represented with the best differential between Pts Pct and RgPt% at 0.061.

Comparing '22-23 with '23-24, we see that Cronin's base talent was much higher that is supported with RW, greatly reduced GA, and greatly reduced GD. Guess last year's team was not a better competitive team as they were only able to generate one more point on the record.

This year's talent group saw our netminders shine and LD LaCombe becoming a top pairing D.

1743117092649.png


Speaking of our netminders, if we add the GSAx (goals saved above expected) of this year's Dostal and Gibson, then they saved 33.7 goals above expectations. Then comparing last year's GA (295) with this year's projected GA (258), the difference is projected to be 37 GA reduction. That means this year's defense is similar to last year's difference if our goalies didn't stand on their heads by saving about 34 goals above expectations.

This goes to prove that we're only competitive this season because of our goalies stealing RW, OTW, and OTL points due to their 34 GSAx.
 
Hockey Duckie said:
Statistically and transactionally, all you said can't be backed up.

Pugilist and Physicality

Eakins did have pugilists on his roster before the Verbeekening. At the Verbeekening, Verbeek got rid of the team's physicality in Manson, Lindholm, and Des. Verbeek didn't replace any of them in 2022-23, Eakins' last season as coach. Last year, 2023-24, Verbeek added a physicality in RD Gudas, RD Lybushkin, and the hugger Johnston. This year, Verbeek added Dumo as well as swapped Fowler for Trouba to add more bite and fight.

In the graphic below, we see Des' fight card. Apparently, the team wasn't a push over. In fact, there were many complaints when Des played LW with Z in order to protect Z. Terry's blackeye is all due to Verbeek not replacing "Pugilist and Physicality" after the 2022 TDL, demasculinization of the Ducks.

View attachment 1000582

Competitiveness

Maybe it is recency bias of beating an injured and talent depleted Boston team last night, but many have fallen asleep to many a Ducks game under Cronin for the past two years. Rarely were we entertained with our skaters and scheme under Cronin.

Yet, how do you compare competitiveness statistically? We can use regulation wins (RW), regulation points percentage (RgPt%), OTW, total points percentage (Pts Pct), and talent depth.

This year's Ducks roster has been the best collection of talent since 2018-19. We lost Fowler and Vaak early in the season and the blueline didn't miss a beat. We traded away Fowler and Vaak, traded for Trouba, and we had three blueline youths in a rotation where one would sit for a week or two. That is just our blueline. Our best scorer/60 is our third line center, McTavish. Colangelo, when put with offensive forwards, scores upon his call-ups. Nesterenko has been scoring in the bottom-6. The goaltenders are playing out of their minds! Together, Dostal and Gibby have a 33.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) production this season.

2024-25 Ducks Goalies Production (Source: Money Puck)
View attachment 1000587

There was an abundance of talent infusion last year with the additions of F Killorn, C Carlsson, RD Gudas, RD Lyubushkin, LD Mintyukov, LD LaCombe, and LD Zellweger.

Three seasons ago, Verbeek compiled a roster made for tanking and without physicality. Remember that Verbeek offered Klingberg a multi-year deal, but Klingberg denied it like he denied Dallas' multi-year offer. Thankfully, Klingberg gave Verbeek a one-year, $7 mil prove it deal. New forward additions of Strome and Vatrano put up fewer points than rookie Mac with 43 points.


View attachment 1000635

We can do an objective analysis of competitiveness by looking at difference between Pts Pct and RgPt%, which has been color coded from best to worst. Many fans made fun of the 2022-23 Ducks team because they didn't earn their first regulation win (RW) until their 20th game. That doesn't mean the Ducks didn't win any games until game 20. They actually went 6-13-1. Which means the team went into OT six times and came away with five wins. That is a huge sign of competitiveness to be going 6-0-1 in OT situations. Due to lack of talent on the roster is why they lost 13 games in regulation time.

Regulation Wins (RW) can be considered your talent base. The OTW (overtime wins) can be seen as overachieving. In the past four years, the 2022-23 team was by far the weakest in RW and most OTW. That team overachieved, as represented with the best differential between Pts Pct and RgPt% at 0.061.

Comparing '22-23 with '23-24, we see that Cronin's base talent was much higher that is supported with RW, greatly reduced GA, and greatly reduced GD. Guess last year's team was not a better competitive team as they were only able to generate one more point on the record.

This year's talent group saw our netminders shine and LD LaCombe becoming a top pairing D.

View attachment 1000650

Speaking of our netminders, if we add the GSAx (goals saved above expected) of this year's Dostal and Gibson, then they saved 33.7 goals above expectations. Then comparing last year's GA (295) with this year's projected GA (258), the difference is projected to be 37 GA reduction. That means this year's defense is similar to last year's difference if our goalies didn't stand on their heads by saving about 34 goals above expectations.

This goes to prove that we're only competitive this season because of our goalies stealing RW, OTW, and OTL points due to their 34 GSAx.
Click to expand...
We get it you will go to lengths end to defend a coach Bob Murray hired(Eakins), Bob Murray and any trades/signings Murray did.
You probably have a Bob Murray autograph that you rank higher in value than anything signed by Getz or Teemu.
It's like the Jerry DiPoto obsession you have with Angels baseball and do the same with him defending every single transaction he made.
 
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Hockey Duckie said:
Statistically and transactionally, all you said can't be backed up.

Pugilist and Physicality

Eakins did have pugilists on his roster before the Verbeekening. At the Verbeekening, Verbeek got rid of the team's physicality in Manson, Lindholm, and Des. Verbeek didn't replace any of them in 2022-23, Eakins' last season as coach. Last year, 2023-24, Verbeek added a physicality in RD Gudas, RD Lybushkin, and the hugger Johnston. This year, Verbeek added Dumo as well as swapped Fowler for Trouba to add more bite and fight.

In the graphic below, we see Des' fight card. Apparently, the team wasn't a push over. In fact, there were many complaints when Des played LW with Z in order to protect Z. Terry's blackeye is all due to Verbeek not replacing "Pugilist and Physicality" after the 2022 TDL, demasculinization of the Ducks.

View attachment 1000582

Competitiveness

Maybe it is recency bias of beating an injured and talent depleted Boston team last night, but many have fallen asleep to many a Ducks game under Cronin for the past two years. Rarely were we entertained with our skaters and scheme under Cronin.

Yet, how do you compare competitiveness statistically? We can use regulation wins (RW), regulation points percentage (RgPt%), OTW, total points percentage (Pts Pct), and talent depth.

This year's Ducks roster has been the best collection of talent since 2018-19. We lost Fowler and Vaak early in the season and the blueline didn't miss a beat. We traded away Fowler and Vaak, traded for Trouba, and we had three blueline youths in a rotation where one would sit for a week or two. That is just our blueline. Our best scorer/60 is our third line center, McTavish. Colangelo, when put with offensive forwards, scores upon his call-ups. Nesterenko has been scoring in the bottom-6. The goaltenders are playing out of their minds! Together, Dostal and Gibby have a 33.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) production this season.

2024-25 Ducks Goalies Production (Source: Money Puck)
View attachment 1000587

There was an abundance of talent infusion last year with the additions of F Killorn, C Carlsson, RD Gudas, RD Lyubushkin, LD Mintyukov, LD LaCombe, and LD Zellweger.

Three seasons ago, Verbeek compiled a roster made for tanking and without physicality. Remember that Verbeek offered Klingberg a multi-year deal, but Klingberg denied it like he denied Dallas' multi-year offer. Thankfully, Klingberg gave Verbeek a one-year, $7 mil prove it deal. New forward additions of Strome and Vatrano put up fewer points than rookie Mac with 43 points.


View attachment 1000635

We can do an objective analysis of competitiveness by looking at difference between Pts Pct and RgPt%, which has been color coded from best to worst. Many fans made fun of the 2022-23 Ducks team because they didn't earn their first regulation win (RW) until their 20th game. That doesn't mean the Ducks didn't win any games until game 20. They actually went 6-13-1. Which means the team went into OT six times and came away with five wins. That is a huge sign of competitiveness to be going 6-0-1 in OT situations. Due to lack of talent on the roster is why they lost 13 games in regulation time.

Regulation Wins (RW) can be considered your talent base. The OTW (overtime wins) can be seen as overachieving. In the past four years, the 2022-23 team was by far the weakest in RW and most OTW. That team overachieved, as represented with the best differential between Pts Pct and RgPt% at 0.061.

Comparing '22-23 with '23-24, we see that Cronin's base talent was much higher that is supported with RW, greatly reduced GA, and greatly reduced GD. Guess last year's team was not a better competitive team as they were only able to generate one more point on the record.

This year's talent group saw our netminders shine and LD LaCombe becoming a top pairing D.

View attachment 1000650

Speaking of our netminders, if we add the GSAx (goals saved above expected) of this year's Dostal and Gibson, then they saved 33.7 goals above expectations. Then comparing last year's GA (295) with this year's projected GA (258), the difference is projected to be 37 GA reduction. That means this year's defense is similar to last year's difference if our goalies didn't stand on their heads by saving about 34 goals above expectations.

This goes to prove that we're only competitive this season because of our goalies stealing RW, OTW, and OTL points due to their 34 GSAx.
Click to expand...
TL;DR
 
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zegrassyknoll said:
I agree with this completely, and I think it absolutely has some value.

The problem is that we're at an inflection point in our rebuild - Verbeek has to decide if he wants to keep "building culture" or start winning more games. Pat was recently quoted saying he wants to score 250+ goals and the teams that do that are the ones who are actually good at the quantifiable stuff. So his choices are either:

#1 Keep working on the intangibles with Cronin and accept that we won't score as many goals (something I disagree with, Pat seems to disagree with, but maybe Cronin would be effective at)

#2 New coach

#3 Try to score more goals with Cronin (something I disagree with and that Cronin is objectively bad at)

IMO Option 1 is a mistake but Option 3 would be blatant stupidity and a fireable offense.
Click to expand...
Since the first game of November, and all subsequent games Trevor Zegras has played in, the Anaheim Ducks have so far played in 36 games. In those 36 games, since 11/3, they have scored 110 goals. 110 divided by 36 = 3.055 goals per game average. If you multiply that number by 82 games, you get 250.55 goals for the season.

So if you throwaway the first 10 games of the season when we were dogshit, and the time Zegras missed with injury (and still including the game he got hurt in, a 1-4 loss), we have been a 250 goal team for 44% of the season, throwaway the 12 % shitty start, and 22 games (27%) of the season Zegras missed due to injury….. and we are kinda on pace to be that team already.

This isn’t a pro Cronin thing so much as a, damn Zegras has missed a lot of time the past 2 seasons (77 games played in 153 total games, or 50%) and until Leo or McT prove otherwise (by carrying the offensive load themselves) he is the most important forward on this team.
 
But honestly don't think there's any real insight from LeBrun here. He might have another year on his contract but as a first-time NHL coach with no history of success I can't imagine it's a very expensive contract.

As others have said, I think a lot will depend on what the players say. As worthless as it is, my opinion of Verbeek would dip pretty significantly if he brings Cronin back, though. Just no justification for it.
 
zegrassyknoll said:
But honestly don't think there's any real insight from LeBrun here. He might have another year on his contract but as a first-time NHL coach with no history of success I can't imagine it's a very expensive contract.

As others have said, I think a lot will depend on what the players say. As worthless as it is, my opinion of Verbeek would dip pretty significantly if he brings Cronin back, though. Just no justification for it.
Click to expand...

With one year still left, the justification is that the owners don't want to pay two coaches. The Samuelis have been incredibly reluctant to allow GMs the leeway to fire coaches more than a couple months early. If Cronin has a guaranteed contract next year, I don't think ownership lets Verbeek fire him, even if he wanted to.
 
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