Speculation: 2024-25 Coaching/Management/Ownership

[Hockey Duckie]

Looking back at the drafts for the last decade and it seems Murray's first round picks haven't aged well at all. Also, imo part of why this team is currently struggling. If you look at who is struggling right now, it's Murray's picks (Zegras/McTavish). While Verbeek's picks look like studs (Leo/Minty).

Then you look at the other first round picks for the last decade.

2014: Ritchie (bust)
2015: Larsson (bust)
2016: Jones (bust); Steel (bust)
2017: no pick
2018: Lundestrom (fine pick)
2019: Zegras (not playing well. I do put a lot of that on coaching); Tracey (bust)
2020: Drysdale (traded and not playing well); Perrault (bust)
2021: McTavish (not playing well)

This is a huge reason why this team has no older players to let the kids ease into the NHL. They all busted. The only option is to sign vets and no one wants to sign here.

I do think Zegras and McTavish have the potential to be great players. But, it's not incorrect to point out that it's Murray's picks who are struggling to take the next step while the younger players Verbeek picked have already surpassed them.

All first rounders are not of equal talent. There are reasons why all teams want the highest pick in the draft. One pick slide down can make a significant difference such as being able to pick Crosby instead of the consolation prize of Bobby Ryan. Picks outside the top-10 carry far less value than picks in the top-3 or top-10. Before the Murray rebuild, Anaheim was a playoff team in 8 out of 10 years. And it looked like the Ducks were back in the playoff hunt in the 2021-22 season with rookies Z and Drysdale looking very promising, but Murray's alcoholism cost him his job and Verbeek reset the rebuild as the Ducks were only 4 points away from 3rd place at the TDL.

Also, the 2023 draft had three consensus 1st overall talents in Bedard, Carlsson, and Fantilli. Just like sliding down one in the draft, there's a lot of luck involved. We were guaranteed one of them for sucking ass with the defense Verbeek gave the Ducks. The 2021 draft, there was only one consensus #1 overall talent in D Power. I think Power would still be drafted behind Bedard, Carlsson, and Fantilli.

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Anyhow, let's add context to Murray's first round picks. It's odd that you left out Murray's picks between 2009-2013. D Theodore at #27 overall is a much bigger find than Minty at #10 overall.

Spoiler: Murray's picks in detail and notables, 2009-2021

• Murray's 1st round picks
  • 2009
    (playoffs in 2008-09)
    • #15 C Holland
    • #25 RW Palmieri (good pick)
    • Notable picks: Rd 4 D Vatanen (Traded for Rico)
  • 2010
    (no playoffs in 2009-10)
    • #12 D Fowler (good pick)
    • #29 RW Etem
  • 2011
    (playoffs in 2010-11)
    • #30 RW Rakell (good pick)
      (Trade away by Verbeek)
    • Notable picks:
      Rd 2 G Gibson;
      Rd 6 D Manson (Traded by Verbeek)
  • 2012
    (no playoffs in 2011-12)
    • #6 D Lindholm (good pick) Top-10 pick
      (Traded away by Verbeek)
    • Notable picks: Rd 3 G Andersen (Traded for 2016 Rd 1 pick = Steel and 2017 Rd 2 pick = Comtois)
  • 2013
    (playoffs in 2012-13)
    • #26 D Theodore (good pick)
  • 2014
    (playoffs in 2013-14)
    • #10 LW Ritchie Top-10 pick
      (Not the Ducks original pick, Bobby Ryan Trade including Silf and prospect Noesen)
    • Notable picks:
      Rd 2 D Pettersson (Traded for F Sprong)
      Rd 2 D Montour (Traded for prospect D Guhle and 2019 1st rd pick = Tracey)
      Rd 7 RW Kase (Traded for 2020 1st Rd pick = Perreault)
  • 2015
    (playoffs in 2014-15)
    • #27 D Larsson
    • Notable picks: Rd 5 RW Terry
  • 2016
    (playoffs in 2015-16)
    • #24 LW Jones
    • #30 C Steel
  • 2017
    (playoffs in 2016-17)
    • No first round pick (F Eaves trade condition)
    • Notable pick: RD 2 LW Comtois
  • 2018
    (playoffs in 2017-18)
    • #23 Lundy (good pick)
    • Notable pick: RD 3 Dostal
  • 2019
    (no playoffs in 2018-19)
    • #9 C Zegras ... slid down one in draft lottery
    • #29 LW Tracey (Bust)
    • Notable picks:
      Rd 2 D LaCombe
      Rd 4 D Thrun(Traded for 2024 3rd Rd pick = Massé)
  • 2020
    (no playoffs in 2019-20)
    • #6 D Drysdale (+ 2025 2nd rd Traded for Cutter) ... slid down one in draft lottery
    • #27 RW Perreault (Bust)
    • Notable picks:
      Rd 2 RW Colangelo
      Rd 3 D Moore
  • 2021
    (no playoffs in 2020-21)
    • #3 C McTavish ... slid down one in draft lottery
    • #27 RW Perreault (Bust)
    • Notable picks:
      Rd 2 D Zellweger

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Murray picks are the teams two best players right now, Terry and Dostal. Also Steel is definitely not a bust, and skipping every round but the first artificially limits who’s contributing and who isn’t. There are 7 BM picks on the team right now and most of them are where you’d expect them to be and the ones that aren’t, aren’t obviously bad picks as opposed to bad fits with the (re)construction of the team or the coaching staff.

PV’s had three drafts and in one of them he had the good fortune to draft a first overall quality guy at #2. Mintyukov is really the only player you could say has exceeded what we’d expect of him.

I guess my point is that this framing doesn’t really illuminate any difference between the two management groups. Obviously any team would be better off if it had better luck with its first rounders.

We are using the same scouting staff between the two GM's. The defensive drafting process still follows the same mold under Murray. Where the difference lies is in the forward selections outside the top-10. Murray swung for the offensive fences (Jones, Steel, Tracey, and Perreault) whereas Verbeek wanted tall, defensive forwards (Gaucher in 2022 and Myatovic in 2023). Verbeek altered his forward drafting in 2024 with the drafting of 5'11 offensive-minded C Pettersson.

 

[Reveille1984]

If both Mac and Zegras can be perennial 60 pointers, I'd be okay with that. Although I thought Zegras was going to be a sure-fire ppg player for us, I'm more leaning towards Carlsson becoming that.

I think Zegras could have a couple PPG seasons, given the fact that he put up 65 points as a 21 year old. He just seems stuck in his own head all the time now trying to conform to a more structured system of play. He basically missed the 23-24 season which would have been big for his development, and is coming back from a pretty nasty injury to boot.

I'm not as high on McTavish, but I think he'll be an okay 2C at some point in his prime (probably a 50-60 point guy). I think some players just aren't blessed with great hockey sense which limits their top end potential, and Mason is probably one of those guys. Watching Leo even at 19 you can already tell he has that "it factor" when he's on the ice. He knows how to drive the play and knows where the puck is going to be before it happens. Mac is like a dog chasing a car, reacting to whatever crosses his path.

 

[caliamad]

I can't believe people are having this conversation given how we played against Colorado and LA.

First we need to win a damn faceoff, then we need to control the puck for more than 10 seconds in the offensive zone... then maybe we can start talking about wins. String enough wins together and we can start talking about playoffs, but we are fortunate to have played the Sharks twice and a terrible Colorado goalie and the only reason we aren't 0-5...

All this talk about player development, regression, points, etc. mean nothing to me. Zegras had tons of points early in his carear and we didn't sniff the playoffs. If you remember the early years of Paul Kariya and Teamu Selanne, they would finish top 5 in scoring and bottom 5 in standing.

Until this team proves in can play somewhat competitive hockey, this is all a pipe dream.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

All this talk about player development, regression, points, etc. mean nothing to me. Zegras had tons of points early in his carear and we didn't sniff the playoffs. If you remember the early years of Paul Kariya and Teamu Selanne, they would finish top 5 in scoring and bottom 5 in standing.

Until this team proves in can play somewhat competitive hockey, this is all a pipe dream.

It should because it helps to identify the good, the bad, and the ugly over the sample size.

When Zegras hit 61 points in his rookie season along with Terry breaking out with 65 points and 37 goals, we had a competent team to start in 2021-22 season. When Verbeek took over at all-star break, the Ducks were 3rd in the Pacific. Without Manson for 12 out of 14 games since the All-star break, the Ducks were 4 points away from 3rd in the Pacific at the TDL. After jettisoning our physicality and grit, the Ducks finished 23 points from 3rd in the Pacific.

Zegras was our top scorer the following season, but Verbeek never replenished the blueline with top comparable talents to Lindholm and Manson, who were both casted off at the 2021-22 TDL.

New coach was brought in 2023-24 and a different style of play. Verbeek gathered up some physical RD defensemen in Gudas and Lybushkin while adding rookies Minty, LaCombe, Luneau, and Zellweger along with a healthy Vaak. The ES defense's GA vastly improved (51 fewer goals allowed), but the ES offense was a dud (19 fewer goals scored) - which resulted in the team being only one point better than the previous season. Z's scoring was down greatly, but he did improve as the season went after each return from injury.

We should have been far better last year. Six games into the season, we are witnessing the inept offense recurring. Is it the player or is it the coaching? To have a competitive team, good coaching and good player production need to happen. We haven't found the correct combo yet.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

I swear some people on this board think that Cronin is telling Zegras to stop playing offense.

Any struggles he is facing are from some combination of other teams getting better at defending him, not having chemistry with his linemates, and him being in his own head.

I’m sure will be fine as the season plays out.

 

[eaterfan]

Once again the best defenses of PV are the ones that just assume he’s a liar so they can paint their own version of reasonableness on an artificially blank canvas.

I mean... If you don't expect your coach, GM, ownership, and front office to lie to you by saying they are going to be better than they are, then I don't know what to tell you. They can't go out and say "this is a bad team that won't do much this year. Please invest your hard earned dollars on season tickets. Spend your nights watching us on TV." "This team is bad, check out for the next three years until we're good again." Even if it isn't about the money, you can't send that message to the players, either.

Also, I didn't hear the direct quote where he said "we're going to be a playoff team this year." Did he say "we're going to compete for a playoff spot this year.?" They technically are, just as they do every year. Did he say "We have the talent to compete for a playoff spot.?" They have the talent, I think. If everyone took a big leap in production, they could have made it. Is that reasonable to expect? No. Did PV expect it? Based on his moves, I don't think so. Does it mean the team isn't on an upward path if there isn't a big jump in production this year? I don't think so, but I understand people being frustrated it didn't happen. But we're still less than 10 games into the season. I'm not going to write off the chance that the young guys progress yet.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

It was against a bad team but I’m encouraged by some of the things we saw against the Sharks.

- The line changes looked a little better.
- Leo wasn’t taking face offs (which isn’t great but tells me it’s at least clear to the coaching staff that face-offs are an issue)
- PP entries looked better.
- Zegras gave the puck away 2-3 times trying to make weird passes, so nature is healing there.
- We took fewer penalties.
- We got more shots on goal.

I don’t think Cronin is a great coach. Maybe he’ll never even be a good or decent coach. But one of his biggest flaws last season was stubbornness and I’m really hoping he’s encouraged by seeing some success from making changes and continues to learn.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

One last thing: the “psychoanalysis” of players by fans is hilarious.

There is not a single person here who can tell you what a player is feeling or thinking. Stop pretending like you know a player is unhappy. We don’t know these players at all.

 

[Ducks DVM]

One last thing: the “psychoanalysis” of players by fans is hilarious.

There is not a single person here who can tell you what a player is feeling or thinking. Stop pretending like you know a player is unhappy. We don’t know these players at all.

100%, but I would put good money on the entire roster thinking this place sucks, however

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

100%, but I would put good money on the entire roster thinking this place sucks, however

The beauty of pro sports is that their fate is almost entirely in their own hands.

They will be happy if they win and if they work their asses off, they'll win more often. I can work my ass off and my job would still suck lol.

 

[Ducks DVM]

The beauty of pro sports is that their fate is almost entirely in their own hands.

They will be happy if they win and if they work their asses off, they'll win more often. I can work my ass off and my job would still suck lol.

No, I mean HF

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

No, I mean HF

Damn, I ruined a solid joke.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

I swear some people on this board think that Cronin is telling Zegras to stop playing offense.

Any struggles he is facing are from some combination of other teams getting better at defending him, not having chemistry with his linemates, and him being in his own head.

I’m sure will be fine as the season plays out.

This is a good point that I don't see being discussed very much as to why he's been struggling. When you bust into the league like he did, teams take notice and have no doubt been targeting him. It's often a big contributing factor why guys go into sophomore slumps, but in Z's case it's been amplified.

He's talented enough that I think he can find ways to meaningfully contribute. It's a big year for him, but I think next year will be make or break.

 

[ohcomeonref]

One last thing: the “psychoanalysis” of players by fans is hilarious.

There is not a single person here who can tell you what a player is feeling or thinking. Stop pretending like you know a player is unhappy. We don’t know these players at all.

I'm not sure I see anyone doing what you're talking about here, people are absolutely speculating. But isn't that exactly what we're here for?

 

[dracom]

I'm not sure I see anyone doing what you're talking about here, people are absolutely speculating. But isn't that exactly what we're here for?

People have been doing it with Gibson for years on here lol. Every bad game is accompanied with “he sulks and looks like he doesn’t care”.

 

[ohcomeonref]

People have been doing it with Gibson for years on here lol. Every bad game is accompanied with “he sulks and looks like he doesn’t care”.

Jeez, I hadn't thought about Gibson but that's absolutely correct. I am actually one of the people who thinks Gibson's body language looks pretty poor sometimes, but for all I know he's awesome in the locker room. On that front, @ZegrassyKnoll is exactly right.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

I'm not sure I see anyone doing what you're talking about here, people are absolutely speculating. But isn't that exactly what we're here for?

Eh, making an observation that a coach and a player don't get along based on some kind of evidence is speculation, claiming that Zegras is playing without any joy falls more into what I meant by "psychoanalysis." The conversation here has been trending towards the latter IMO.