2024-25 Calder Race

[Herschel]

I haven't really watch Michkov outside of highlights. When it comes to usage, is he being sheltered with ozone starts and softer match ups or is Torts using him in most situations?

 

[Barrie22]

I haven't really watch Michkov outside of highlights. When it comes to usage, is he being sheltered with ozone starts and softer match ups or is Torts using him in most situations?

66% offensive zone faceoffs. 3rd line and top unit power play.

 

[General Fanager]

Two player race for this years Calder: Michkov and Celebrini. No other guys are close.

I think Hutson is right there with those two....

 

[Jts4thgoal]

Just in case anyone was wondering, The Calder Memorial Trophy is an annual award given "to the player selected as the most proficient (competent or skilled in doing or using something) in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League (NHL)."

Overall points are important, often weighted too much in trophy voting, but if Celebrini and Michkov are close in points then it will go to Celebrini based on his overall play; he is just a better overall player.

 

[zombie kopitar]

 

[SjMilhouse]

Just in case anyone was wondering, The Calder Memorial Trophy is an annual award given "to the player selected as the most proficient (competent or skilled in doing or using something) in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League (NHL)."

Overall points are important, often weighted too much in trophy voting, but if Celebrini and Michkov are close in points then it will go to Celebrini based on his overall play; he is just a better overall player.

If Celebrini wins it and Michkov has more points there are going to be a lot of angry "It's because he's Russian!!!" posts ignoring all the other stuff Celebrini does

 

[FlyguyOX]

66% offensive zone faceoffs. 3rd line and top unit power play.

Sure, the 2nd leading scorer on the team is 3rd line. Right. His most common linemates are Frost, Tippett, Couturier, TK.

Sure, 3rd line. Right.

Let's check in on the quality of teammate/competition debate:

Michkov teammates: GAR/60: 0.17 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0 xGAR/60: 0

Michkov competition: GAR/60: 0.18 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0.22 xGAR/60: 0.24

So Michkov has better teammates, and faces almost same level of competition as Celebrini. The contextual usage difference isn't material enough to offset that Michkov has played more games than Celebrini and scored at similar ppg level.

Plus, Michkov has better play-driving, quality chance deferential metrics which match actual on ice goal deferential where he's outscoring the opponent on the ice more than celebrini is.

Add in that celebrini is on the west coast in a meh market and Michkov is easily the leader for calder.

Celebrini is also only 18 and keeping pace offensively while being better defensively. At that age 1 year is a big difference developmentally. Going to be the better player pretty easily imo.

How is he better defensively? Can you point to the metrics? Because that's not what I see.

Michkov is easily going to be better. He's a 120+ point superstar.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I think "attitude" was code for only wanting to play for a few specific teams.

You really don't think every kid doesn't have a preference?

 

[Turin]

He literally went 1 st overall undisputedly . Out of the 2 guys he’s not the one who had their shine wiped off for “ reasons “ ..

Yes, and he still didn’t get enough hype.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I think "attitude" was code for only wanting to play for a few specific teams.

That’s been debunked already . Coyotes were the only team he was hesitant about committing to ; for understandable reasons …

 

[danisonfire]

As of right now the vote would be:

1) Michkov (PPG and #1 in points and hasn't missed a lot of games)

2) Hutson (Has more total points than the next four D added together, tied for second in total points)

3) Celebrini (Best complete forward but missed 9 games and has 7 less points than Michkov)

Celebrini would be #1 if you were asking me who is the best, most complete, rookie. He is #3 on my list at this point with how they usually hand it out this award.

 

[coooldude]

Sure, the 2nd leading scorer on the team is 3rd line. Right. His most common linemates are Frost, Tippett, Couturier, TK.

Sure, 3rd line. Right.

Let's check in on the quality of teammate/competition debate:

Michkov teammates: GAR/60: 0.17 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0 xGAR/60: 0

Michkov competition: GAR/60: 0.18 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0.22 xGAR/60: 0.24

So Michkov has better teammates, and faces almost same level of competition as Celebrini. The contextual usage difference isn't material enough to offset that Michkov has played more games than Celebrini and scored at similar ppg level.

Plus, Michkov has better play-driving, quality chance deferential metrics which match actual on ice goal deferential where he's outscoring the opponent on the ice more than celebrini is.

Add in that celebrini is on the west coast in a meh market and Michkov is easily the leader for calder.


How is he better defensively? Can you point to the metrics? Because that's not what I see.

Michkov is easily going to be better. He's a 120+ point superstar.

Talk to your buddy who insists that Michkov is EVEN BETTER than you're stating because he's doing all this with "3rd line teammates." You just did an amazing job of torpedoing that line of reasoning.

 

[Barrie22]

Sure, the 2nd leading scorer on the team is 3rd line. Right. His most common linemates are Frost, Tippett, Couturier, TK.

Sure, 3rd line. Right.

Let's check in on the quality of teammate/competition debate:

Michkov teammates: GAR/60: 0.17 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0 xGAR/60: 0

Michkov competition: GAR/60: 0.18 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0.22 xGAR/60: 0.24

So Michkov has better teammates, and faces almost same level of competition as Celebrini. The contextual usage difference isn't material enough to offset that Michkov has played more games than Celebrini and scored at similar ppg level.

Plus, Michkov has better play-driving, quality chance deferential metrics which match actual on ice goal deferential where he's outscoring the opponent on the ice more than celebrini is.

Add in that celebrini is on the west coast in a meh market and Michkov is easily the leader for calder.


How is he better defensively? Can you point to the metrics? Because that's not what I see.

Michkov is easily going to be better. He's a 120+ point superstar.

So flyer fans which is it? Michkov is being buried by the coach with the worst talent in the league or he is playing as a top line player with good talent? Kind of confused with how much yall flip flop the narrative depending on how michkovs week goes.

As of right now the vote would be:

1) Michkov (PPG and #1 in points and hasn't missed a lot of games)

2) Hutson (Has more total points than the next four D added together, tied for second in total points)

3) Celebrini (Best complete forward but missed 9 games and has 7 less points than Michkov)

Celebrini would be #1 if you were asking me who is the best, most complete, rookie. He is #3 on my list at this point with how they usually hand it out this award.

Michkov has missed 2 games due to being benched, celebrini missed games due to a freak accident in preseason. Kind of different reasons for missed games.

 

[danisonfire]

So flyer fans which is it? Michkov is being buried by the coach with the worst talent in the league or he is playing as a top line player with good talent? Kind of confused with how much yall flip flop the narrative depending on how michkovs week goes.


Michkov has missed 2 games due to being benched, celebrini missed games due to a freak accident in preseason. Kind of different reasons for missed games.

And the voters really don't care at all. They see Celebrini 7 points behind Michkov tied with a rookie D for second place. This award isn't the most complete, best, rookie. It is usually a production award and they often penalize players that miss the most time. Like I said, Celebrini to me is the best and most complete rookie but this award is often disconnected from that reality.

If Celebrini closes the gap with Michkov or is tied with him for points, that is when things like 2 way game start to actually matter to these voters and Celebrini will win.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Talk to your buddy who insists that Michkov is EVEN BETTER than you're stating because he's doing all this with "3rd line teammates." You just did an amazing job of torpedoing that line of reasoning.

This is my favorite post so far. One person shows stats that we should ignore because Michkov is an outlier and then this post says actually use stats to show he's better. There is no scenario where Michkov isnt the clear run away favorite and it isn't even close. He is literally the best at everything. Stats are good? Look at these stats. Stats are bad? He is an enigma and here are 10 reasons those stats are meaningless or not contextual to the eye test.

 

[TheBeard]

I Think we can at least all agree that it’s not going to be Logan Stankoven?

 

[FlyguyOX]

So flyer fans which is it? Michkov is being buried by the coach with the worst talent in the league or he is playing as a top line player with good talent? Kind of confused with how much yall flip flop the narrative depending on how michkovs week goes.


Michkov has missed 2 games due to being benched, celebrini missed games due to a freak accident in preseason. Kind of different reasons for missed games.

Tbh every narrative around Torts is exaggerated around here.

Michkov is getting top 6 deployment, but not the top Bedard/Celebrini type of ice time that hypothetically could make his production even better.

Also, "Michkov was benched" is a bit disingenuous considering it's Torts trying to teach lessons versus the typical benching implication that Michkov is hurting the team.

And the voters really don't care at all. They see Celebrini 7 points behind Michkov tied with a rookie D for second place. This award isn't the most complete, best, rookie. It is usually a production award and they often penalize players that miss the most time. Like I said, Celebrini to me is the best and most complete rookie but this award is often disconnected from that reality.

If Celebrini closes the gap with Michkov or is tied with him for points, that is when things like 2 way game start to actually matter to these voters and Celebrini will win.

Agree, if it was an award for all-around play then Faber would've (should've IMO) won the calder last year.

That said, 2way game is not a discernible enough difference to hurt Michkov in this case.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Love watching all these guys. Only thing I know for sure is that there's lots of season left.

 

[coooldude]

Love watching all these guys. Only thing I know for sure is that there's lots of season left.

Get out of here with that reasonable take!

 

[91Fedorov91]

Sure, the 2nd leading scorer on the team is 3rd line. Right. His most common linemates are Frost, Tippett, Couturier, TK.

Sure, 3rd line. Right.

Let's check in on the quality of teammate/competition debate:

Michkov teammates: GAR/60: 0.17 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0 xGAR/60: 0

Michkov competition: GAR/60: 0.18 xGAR/60: 0.2
Celebrini: GAR/60: 0.22 xGAR/60: 0.24

So Michkov has better teammates, and faces almost same level of competition as Celebrini. The contextual usage difference isn't material enough to offset that Michkov has played more games than Celebrini and scored at similar ppg level.

Plus, Michkov has better play-driving, quality chance deferential metrics which match actual on ice goal deferential where he's outscoring the opponent on the ice more than celebrini is.

Add in that celebrini is on the west coast in a meh market and Michkov is easily the leader for calder.


How is he better defensively? Can you point to the metrics? Because that's not what I see.

Michkov is easily going to be better. He's a 120+ point superstar.

More to Celebrini's game than just offense. For an 18 year old these are impressive parts of his game.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Haven't seen the two-way impact Celebrini has from an 18 year old in a long time. Bergeron maybe? Guy is on the cusp of being a Kopitar-level beast.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Haven't seen the two-way impact Celebrini has from an 18 year old in a long time. Bergeron maybe? Guy is on the cusp of being a Kopitar-level beast.

Matthews was really good as a rookie defensively then was so so for a couple years before ironing out the kinks . So maybe then ( he might have been 19 but rookie in first season of eligibility)

 

[Kcb12345]

He's great but the glazing here by the Sharks account is hilarious. "Pass to himself off a defender" = pass got blocked and he got the rebound"

 

[karltonian]

He's great but the glazing here by the Sharks account is hilarious. "Pass to himself off a defender" = pass got blocked and he got the rebound"

maybe watch the video, it's a joke

There are nights against the league's top dogs where the team just gets overwhelmed and Celebrini will tread water but many other nights it's honestly just a treat to watch him operate shift by shift. He has translated his game to the NHL almost directly, these highlights look just like he was operating against college and juniors teams. That shift where he puts the other team in the mixer is already classic Celebrini.

 

[Kcb12345]

maybe watch the video, it's a joke

There are nights against the league's top dogs where the team just get overwhelmed and Celebrini will tread water but many other nights it's honestly just a treat to watch him operate shift by shift. He has translated his game to the NHL almost directly, these highlights look just like he was operating against college and juniors teams.

I listened and the announcer is joking but I highly doubt the Sharks admin is. Lot of the team admins do it