2024-25 Calder Race

[Kshahdoo]

14 points in 15 games is more impressive. And with 7 points in his last 4 games he looks like he's heating up and may leave all the other rookies in the dust. Not a slight on Michkov, he's very talented and I have him firmly in third after Celebrini and Wolf.

Well, Michkov had 9 points in 8 games which was even more impressive... And Stankoven has 1 point in the last 6 games after he had 14 points in 15 games.

 

[Bank Shot]

Oh he's talking about the same Celebrini that gets way better usage, plays with much better players 5v5, and doesn't play with 3rd and 4th line plugs? A Penguin fan thats unwilling to admit anything about a Flyers prospect, shocking. Yeah, no thanks, Michkov is superior offensively to Celebrini no matter how you slice it and the advanced statistics back that up. You can say PP merchant all you want, the Flyers PP was the worst in the NHL last year and now somehow its respectable running through a 19 year old, me thinks Michkov is the straw stirring the drink.

I dunno why people think Celebrini isn't a premier scoring talent.

He led the USHL in scoring at 16.

Then he was 3rd in NCAA scoring at 17. The other 4 guys in the top five all played for the same team.

Now he's nearly point per game in the NHL at 18. His shooting volume is pretty incredible with 47 shots in 15 games.

Looks like the sky is the limit for this kid.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I dunno why people think Celebrini isn't a premier scoring talent.

He led the USHL in scoring at 16.

Then he was 3rd in NCAA scoring at 17. The other 4 guys in the top five all played for the same team.

Now he's nearly point per game in the NHL at 18. His shooting volume is pretty incredible with 47 shots in 15 games.

Looks like the sky is the limit for this kid.

Of course Celebrini is a premier scoring talent. But if I count here all Michkov's records in junior and professional leagues, I'll get a much longer list. So let's talk about NHL.

 

[one2gamble]

Oh he's talking about the same Celebrini that gets way better usage

I mean, that's because he's a better hockey player

 

[luiginb]

I mean, that's because he's a better hockey player

Better all around player, Michkov might end up putting up better offensive numbers when it's all said and done. I have him above Stankoven who I also love.

 

[bossram]

He has more even strength points than power play points. But people with agenda's like you, don't take about ESP and move the goal posts to 5on5, as if his 3 overtime goals at 3v3 aren't significantly more impactful and important than a 5on5 secondary assist Celebrin, Stankoven or Hutson picks up.

5on5 points aren't more important than 3v3 points or 4v4 points, or PPP, they all count.

I'm not moving the goalposts at all. You just lack the ability to assemble a coherent argument.

I've been talking about 5v5 points the whole time. Not "Even strength" points, which include 3v3, and which I've already been talking about separately because it is an entirely different game state. 3v3 isn't real hockey, and being good at it (which Michkov is) is not in any way a representation of a player's actual playing ability.

I weigh 5v5 more points more heavily (and I've been saying this all along), because they are the the primary game state in hockey and most representative of a player's quality.

Learn to reason better instead of making up arguments I never made.

 

[Soul Assumption]

'm not moving the goalposts at all. You just lack the ability to assemble a coherent argument.

I've been talking about 5v5 points the whole time. Not "Even strength" points, which include 3v3, and which I've already been talking about separately because it is an entirely different game state. 3v3 isn't real hockey, and being good at it (which Michkov is) is not in any way a representation of a player's actual playing ability.

I weigh 5v5 more points more heavily (and I've been saying this all along), because they are the the primary game state in hockey and most representative of a player's quality.

Learn to reason better instead of making up arguments I never made.

I agree that 5 on 5 is the only thing that matters, that's why Barbashev is currently twice as good a player as Nathan Mackinnon and I don't think anyone will deny it.

 

[ViD]

As soon as Michkov is moved away from Tippett and is reunited with TK, this race is over

 

[OverTheLine]

Let me preface this by saying I love Michkov and think he’s probably going to win this race, partly because I think he’s the real deal and partly because his task in Philly is a little simpler than Celebrini’s, who has a more complicated role and I think will inevitably be more likely to hit some rookie bumps and slumps and go on cold streak given the challenges of being tasked as a defensively responsible center against top line competition. I just think Michkov is more likely to be consistent given his additional pro experience, slightly older age, and more straightforward role (and his immense offensive talent).

That being said… the stuff about overtime goals makes no sense. Obviously a GWG in 5on5 even strength regulation is more valuable than a 3on3 overtime goal. Winning in regulation denies your opponents points, which is beneficial to your teams standings, and 3on3 overtime doesn’t exist in the playoffs and therefore is not a good measure of how a player will perform in the only time of the year that truly matters (ask Sharks fans how they feel about all the regular season accolades they racked up in the past decades). Overtime winners are fun for the fans, but a manager should always prefer a player who wins it in regulation. It’s better hockey.

 

[bossram]

I agree that 5 on 5 is the only thing that matters, that's why Barbashev is currently twice as good a player as Nathan Mackinnon and I don't think anyone will deny it.

logical

I say, "I weigh 5v5 points more heavily", and you claim that I said, "only 5v5 points count".

This is why I keep saying you guys have no ability to present a coherent, logical argument. You can't reason properly and literally argue against stuff no one said.

 

[Soul Assumption]

Winning in regulation denies your opponents points, which is beneficial to your teams standings

What if it's an opponent from another conference or they're not a playoff contender anyway?

3on3 overtime doesn’t exist in the playoffs and therefore is not a good measure of how a player will perform in the only time of the year that truly matters (

Regular season performance is not a good measure of playoff performance in general. You can score a bunch of 5 on 5 points, score 70 goals and then get eliminated in the first round.

 

[67 others]

I dunno why people think Celebrini isn't a premier scoring talent.

He led the USHL in scoring at 16.

Then he was 3rd in NCAA scoring at 17. The other 4 guys in the top five all played for the same team.

Now he's nearly point per game in the NHL at 18. His shooting volume is pretty incredible with 47 shots in 15 games.

Looks like the sky is the limit for this kid.

Draft rating hype fatigue.

They can't rub one out every year and say "franchise changing generational candidate". They have to skip certain years. They blew their wads on Bedard vs Michkov hype the year before and slowed it down the next year.

Celebrini was almost a boring shoe in in a hype fatigued environment. Comparing a guy to Toews with better scoring because of his two way game and leadership is fun, but isn't as sexy as "may break scoring records".

Everyone knew he was going 1OA and so they spent more time talking about if Demidov will be as good as Michkov, and which Dman will go highest. His historic season in U wasn't really focused on. There was no "what if". He was the undisputed 1 OA and that was that.

While Demidov was getting Michkov comparisons, Celebrini was going 1st ahead of him AINEC, but somehow it wasn't hyped up lol

 

[Acallabeth]

he stuff about overtime goals makes no sense. Obviously a GWG in 5on5 even strength regulation is more valuable than a 3on3 overtime goal. Winning in regulation denies your opponents points, which is beneficial to your teams standings, and 3on3 overtime doesn’t exist in the playoffs and therefore is not a good measure of how a player will perform in the only time of the year that truly matters (ask Sharks fans how they feel about all the regular season accolades they racked up in the past decades). Overtime winners are fun for the fans, but a manager should always prefer a player who wins it in regulation. It’s better hockey.

A claim that a player who scored the 3-0 goal in a 8-2 game is 'more valuable' than a player who scored a tie-breaking goal that ends a game just because the first player scored on ES is one of the most bizarre and dishonest takes I've ever encountered in this forum.

 

[coooldude]

A claim that a player who scored the 3-0 goal in a 8-2 game is 'more valuable' than a player who scored a tie-breaking goal that ends a game just because the first player scored on ES is one of the most bizarre and dishonest takes I've ever encountered in this forum.

So is the claim that a 3v3 OT goal in the regular season is more important than a non-OT GWG. Not all GWG's are 3-0 goals scored in the second period. Many of them happen in the third period and effectively end the game!

Yes, 100% of OT goals end the game, but the vast majority of them are scored at 3v3. It is not crazy or bizarre to claim this matters less in terms of prediction of career regular season or playoff success. Since most of the year, and all of the playoff OTs, are not played at 3v3.

Michkov has been incredible in OT. Awesome! This reflects on his offensive skill and goal scoring abilities. This does not mean that if someone else has 3 GWG's in regulation, and Michkov has 3 in OT, that Michkov's in OT matter more. If all the other guy's GWG's are the third goal in an 8-2 blowout, sure. But what if they're NOT?! Let's use our brains and incorporate some context into the analysis. THAT might be bizarre for HFB.

 

[Star Platinum]

Damn, sj fans are the same as mtl fans?

Anyway its strange to take one over another now between two(or even three with Wolf). There are no obvious candidate now. One can take slow down or another. Its a fan race with great candidates. No reason to be idiot and sh1t on one or another player.

And OT goals are no the same as GWG and never were. If only they are OT goals too.

I would like to think we have our unique pessimistic view of the world and how it has punished us over several decades.

 

[OverTheLine]

A claim that a player who scored the 3-0 goal in a 8-2 game is 'more valuable' than a player who scored a tie-breaking goal that ends a game just because the first player scored on ES is one of the most bizarre and dishonest takes I've ever encountered in this forum.

OT Goals are like shoot-out goals. They’re cool, and they help get a team regular season points, which is valuable. I never suggested it wasn’t.

But it doesn’t mean anything for playoff performance and as the fan of a franchise that won a lot of regular season games and zero Stanley Cups, I’m personally not all that interested in them as a metric of a player’s value.

I’d rather have the 3-0 go ahead regulation goal, yes, even in the case of an 8-2 game. A goal that opens the game up into a blowout is better than an OT goal, because it contributed to a regulation win, which is better than an OT win.

 

[Eklund72]

Why is Michkov on the 3rd line? The answer lies there

 

[Kshahdoo]

Why is Michkov on the 3rd line? The answer lies there

Because all the lines are 3rd and 4th on the Flyers, but the 1st which is something between 1st and 2nd.

 

[Acallabeth]

I’d rather have the 3-0 go ahead regulation goal, yes, even in the case of an 8-2 game. A goal that opens the game up into a blowout is better than an OT goal, because it contributed to a regulation win, which is better than an OT win.

So your idea is that a player on a stronger team is better because his team wins in regulation more. Sound evaluation.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Oh he's talking about the same Celebrini that gets way better usage, plays with much better players 5v5, and doesn't play with 3rd and 4th line plugs? A Penguin fan thats unwilling to admit anything about a Flyers prospect, shocking. Yeah, no thanks, Michkov is superior offensively to Celebrini no matter how you slice it and the advanced statistics back that up. You can say PP merchant all you want, the Flyers PP was the worst in the NHL last year and now somehow its respectable running through a 19 year old, me thinks Michkov is the straw stirring the drink.

This is my new favorite argument against Celebrini and for Michkov. Doesn't playing top line minutes make Celebrini's 5v5 scoring even more impressive given he's playing against other teams top lines vs 3rd lines like Michkov while scoring at 5v5 and playing solid defense?

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

I'm just glad a Flyers 7th overall pick is being compared to two first overall picks (Bedard & Celebrini) ...this is great news!

 

[SjMilhouse]

Game winning, power play, overtime assist tonight. That's worth like 10 points right?

 

[Patty Ice]

I'm just glad a Flyers 7th overall pick is being compared to two first overall picks (Bedard & Celebrini) ...this is great news!

To be fair, he was wildly considered to be a top 2 talent for several years prior and during his draft year. Any other year he would be touted as a guy who should go no 1. Some even did despite Bedard.

 

[67 others]

I'm just glad a Flyers 7th overall pick is being compared to two first overall picks (Bedard & Celebrini) ...this is great news!

Demidov vs Michkov was a more fun debate because its close and you can see the merit of both guys

 

[karltonian]

Game winning, power play, overtime assist tonight. That's worth like 10 points right?

He also ate the Tom "f***ing" Wilson stick to get that PP, they were globetrottering the Caps at the end of regulation.