Speculation: 2024-2025 General Lightning Discussion: Preseason Edition

[OffBy1]

Jump scare warning

I didn't know it was this bad, but you see over and over again big FA's not live up to their big contracts. Guentzel should at least be good for the first half of his contract. He's got Point and Kucherov to work with. I imagine JBB felt it necessary to get a big name to replace the loss of Stamkos.

I hate Guentzel's number.

It's as much an eyesore as a number can be. Seeing it every game is going to be the worst thing about having him on the team.

 

[JoVel]

I hate Guentzel's number.

Win % of teams since the Salary Cap has been implemented:

View attachment 896898

My main takeaway here is that the NHL point system sucks.

30 out of 32 are above .500 and yet I constantly see people saying their team is actually decent if they're just above that mark.

 

[LightningStrikes]

My main takeaway here is that the NHL point system sucks.

30 out of 32 are above .500 and yet I constantly see people saying their team is actually decent if they're just above that mark.

They’re looking at a 19 year time frame here though. With parity it’s not surprising that almost all teams had a period of success.

 

[JoVel]

They’re looking at a 19 year time frame here though. With parity it’s not surprising that almost all teams had a period of success.

True, but there are too many people around here who hear the term .500 and think of an average team, which it clearly isn't. On any given season ~ 2/3 of the teams will be above that mark.

 

[Rschmitz]

That obviously fake Vatrano rumor just won't go away, keep running into it here and there on Lightning fan pages. Viral social media is a funny thing

 

[Felonious Python]

That obviously fake Vatrano rumor just won't go away, keep running into it here and there on Lightning fan pages. Viral social media is a funny thing

Roger Hicks gets the most user engagement on Vatrano to Bolts tweets, so he keeps doing them.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Roger Hicks gets the most user engagement on Vatrano to Bolts tweets, so he keeps doing them.

I swear I'm not him

 

[Zwui21]

Dom from The Atheltic did this grading for all NHL teams
NHL contract efficiency rankings, 2024: Which teams spend their money most wisely?
We ranked 13th.

Here is what he wrote:

The front half of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s deal went extremely well for the Lightning. The back half might not if last year was any indication. I’m inclined to believe his struggles were injury-related and he can get back on track, but if not … $9.5 million for four more years is a lot of money for a goalie who may no longer be a slam-dunk top-five choice.

The Lightning have two other problem deals in their core with Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak. Both are still effective players but their price points over seven years look a bit much.

However, the Lightning can afford that luxury thanks to some stellar deals from their top forwards. At $9.5 million, Nikita Kucherov is obviously vastly underpaid and so too is newly minted Jake Guentzel, who the model views as an eight-figure winger.

Both deals pale in comparison to Brandon Hagel’s $6.5 million AAV for eight years. There was some sticker shock when he signed, but Hagel is the real deal: an elite play-driver who scored 75 points last year with limited power-play time. If he starts getting reps on PP1, he’ll be an even bigger steal.

Cirelli and Cernak are our main problem value wise (shocker), with Cernak being valued as 1.8M(!) overpaid.

 

[JTBF81]

Dom from The Atheltic did this grading for all NHL teams
NHL contract efficiency rankings, 2024: Which teams spend their money most wisely?
We ranked 13th.
View attachment 896971

Here is what he wrote:

Cirelli and Cernak are our main problem value wise (shocker), with Cernak being valued as 1.8M(!) overpaid.

Maybe, but there was no chance Cernak was ever taking 3.5 when he signed. If he can avoid the injury problems for a large part of a season, he's not close to being 1.8 overpaid. Cirelli may be 750k overpaid, but he was never taking 5.5 after being on a 4.8 bridge and with the success he and the team were.having at the time. Both contracts, barring injury, should be fine value moving ahead with a cap that will be `100 million in a couple of years (and only going up from there).

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Dom from The Atheltic did this grading for all NHL teams
NHL contract efficiency rankings, 2024: Which teams spend their money most wisely?
We ranked 13th.
View attachment 896971

Here is what he wrote:

Cirelli and Cernak are our main problem value wise (shocker), with Cernak being valued as 1.8M(!) overpaid.

I'm convinced Dom from the athletic is the same Dom from our boards.

 

[Outl4w]

This lineup definitely is the softest and most questionable players in the top 9 we have had in a long time. Sheary atkinson, and chaffee are all waiver type players. Cirelli needs to take a big step forward on offensive to get near 60 points and 30 30 status to be an elite top 6 defensive minded center who can produce like Bergeron amd Krejci were for Boston. We lack at least one actual top 6 winger and at least better bottom 6 forward. Defense maybe improved but not counting on an older injury prone McDonough to fix it. Raddysh,perbix,Moser, and lilleberg need to take a step forward. We can't afford to have Hedman or McDonough to take a step back. We need vasi to improve and can't count on him to steal games anymore.
We really need on or two of Geekie, Dukes, gonclaves, and Finley to take a huge step forward and push out these fringe nhl vets. I still don't get why we didn't sign sprong for around a million. He is better than Sheary and Atkinson . He could actually help the pp.

 

[Sky04]

I'm convinced Dom from the athletic is the same Dom from our boards.

He is....

 

[Rschmitz]

Dom from The Atheltic did this grading for all NHL teams
NHL contract efficiency rankings, 2024: Which teams spend their money most wisely?
We ranked 13th.
View attachment 896971

Here is what he wrote:

Cirelli and Cernak are our main problem value wise (shocker), with Cernak being valued as 1.8M(!) overpaid.

How did he come to these numbers? Glendening, and Girgensons getting zero/negative value grades on league minimum is just crazy talk and Moser is somehow supposed to only be worth 2.4M after doing a solid job on Arizona's top pair.

Vasy, Cernak, and Cirelli I understand the argument

 

[Felonious Python]

How did he come to these numbers? Glendening, and Girgensons getting zero/negative value grades on league minimum is just crazy talk and Moser is somehow supposed to only be worth 2.4M after doing a solid job on Arizona's top pair.

Vasy, Cernak, and Cirelli I understand the argument

The Athletic's numbers were all over the place. Bobrovsky being a 1 million dollar player, etc. They sort of de-emphasized them last season.

At the time JBB signed Serge, Cernak, and Cirelli, they were actually pretty close to what The Athletic valued them as.

 

[Felonious Python]

THN is a good home for CapFriendly type info.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

He is....

Is he? I was joking, but it makes sooooooooooooooooooooo much sense.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

This lineup definitely is the softest and most questionable players in the top 9 we have had in a long time. Sheary atkinson, and chaffee are all waiver type players. Cirelli needs to take a big step forward on offensive to get near 60 points and 30 30 status to be an elite top 6 defensive minded center who can produce like Bergeron amd Krejci were for Boston. We lack at least one actual top 6 winger and at least better bottom 6 forward. Defense maybe improved but not counting on an older injury prone McDonough to fix it. Raddysh,perbix,Moser, and lilleberg need to take a step forward. We can't afford to have Hedman or McDonough to take a step back. We need vasi to improve and can't count on him to steal games anymore.
We really need on or two of Geekie, Dukes, gonclaves, and Finley to take a huge step forward and push out these fringe nhl vets. I still don't get why we didn't sign sprong for around a million. He is better than Sheary and Atkinson . He could actually help the pp.

Quick question....have you actually seen the list of 30 goal scoring Centres from last year? Like fine, I'll give you 60 points as a benchmark...but 30 goals? I think you need to put your rage boner away.

 

[Point21]

so when are we trading Cirelli, Cernak, Gauthier, a bunch of firsts and later picks for Zegras, Vatrano, and Gudas

 

[OffBy1]

The only way I see Cirelli getting 60 points is playing with Hagel and Guenztel most of the year, and it'd be like 18 goals, 42 assists.

 

[Sky04]

Is he? I was joking, but it makes sooooooooooooooooooooo much sense.

I thought everyone knew lol

 

[LightningStrikes]

How did he come to these numbers? Glendening, and Girgensons getting zero/negative value grades on league minimum is just crazy talk and Moser is somehow supposed to only be worth 2.4M after doing a solid job on Arizona's top pair.

Vasy, Cernak, and Cirelli I understand the argument

Not to mention that Moser went to arbitration for his current deal.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

How did he come to these numbers? Glendening, and Girgensons getting zero/negative value grades on league minimum is just crazy talk and Moser is somehow supposed to only be worth 2.4M after doing a solid job on Arizona's top pair.

Vasy, Cernak, and Cirelli I understand the argument

Not to mention that Moser went to arbitration for his current deal.

I wonder what his value for TMFVR and Jake Dotchin is?

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I thought everyone knew lol

I for sure didn't know definitively. Good to know. Good to see a lot of his takes are still just as wild as before.

 

[Rschmitz]

I for sure didn't know definitively. Good to know. Good to see a lot of his takes are still just as wild as before.

Makes you wonder what the criteria is to get hired

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Makes you wonder what the criteria is to get hired

When it comes to media, its all about sensationalism and wild takes that generate engagement. Its not actually about being a good journalist anymore. Truth, Facts, and Fair opinions are frowned upon now.