100% yes without hesitation.
2024-2025 Blues Trade Proposals Thread.
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Majorityof1
Registered User
Bedard is 19. In his D+2 season, Holloway was in the AHL putting up lower ppg than Bedard is in the NHL.
Bedard is a C. Bedard has less support.
It's not close, Even from Blues fans. That's not to take away from Holloway. So glad he's on the team. But Bedard is a teenager putting up similar numbers on a bad team. He was rightfully a 1st OA pick. Comparing a 23 yo to him at 19 does not diminish his value or potential.
I like the thought exercise, and would be curious who people think is the best player comp for Holloway right now? which player is he most even par with in the NHL?
I haven't seen Bedard have the motor and physicality and speed and defensive play that Holloway has. I wouldn't do it. Is the skill difference between Holloway and Bedard worth losing all of the other things Holloway brings? I don't think it is.
Bedard has worn a Hawks jersey and therefore is tainted irreparably. No thank you.
I’d add somewhere in between Brady and Matthew Tkachuk from the places he scores goals. He’s a different type of hard to play against than they are, and is a lot faster. They’re maybe a bit more ready to throw hands and try to agitate a bit more, a bit more power forwards.
It’s tough because he does a lot of everything….i keep thinking of ways he’s not like folks. Holloway will have one shift he’s pounding the puck from the blue line then another he’s trying to score between his legs in tight space near the net, and he finishes checks sometimes that seem extremely impactful but he doesn’t like goon it up.
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throw hands and try to agitate a bit more. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree, lol.
Reality Czech
Registered User
- Apr 17, 2017
- 4,888
- 7,819
But there is no guarantee you'll be better. A team could end up like the Sabres. Even teams like the Red Wings and Senators have suffered quite a while without much to show for it. Honestly, I think there aren't that many tanking success stories unless you're bad/lucky enough to get the #1 overall pick, and even then you could end up with a Lafreniere instead of MacKinnon. I'm not a fan of the assumption that tanking automatically means we would be better off in +/- 5 years.
Another good point. If we had tanked worse in 2016 then maybe we wouldn't have drafted Thomas. We might have taken a higher-ranked prospect like Middelstadt or something. That's why I don't stress too much about draft position. The guy drafted 15th could easily end up being better than the guy taken 10th. And as we've seen there are other ways of acquiring top ten talent. Schenn, Bouwmeester, and Broberg were all high picks, so it's clearly possible to grab some of these guys without actually drafting them yourself.
BrokenFace
Registered User
I don't see anyone making this assumption, especially with Buffalo and Chicago struggling out of their blatant tank jobs. I also think you can look at the last decade plus of cup winners and recognize that tanking at one point was key for just about every team. There is an upside and a downside to getting a higher pick at the cost of competing in a given year, and there's an upside and a downside to going for it in a given year. This isn't directed at you, but it feels like we've been going in circles about this too much.
If always going for it always worked, then that's what every team would do. If tanking for years always worked, then that's what every team would do. I don't think anyone comes out looking good saying one strategy is stupid or invalid when history clearly shows there are times for both.
Also, I'm just not seeing anyone here calling for a 3+ year total rebuild, but that claim gets thrown around way too easily when people suggest taking a step back one year might bring greater success in the future. Someone here wanting a higher pick in a season in which we've been out of the playoffs for most of the year is not even close to calling for a bottom out rebuild, yet that gets brought up every page as though multiple posters are advocating for it. I believe "taking a step back to take more forward" is the pitch Army gave to Steen when we traded Stastny, but I could be misremembering. Either way, that step back came a year before the cup win.
Before anyone accuses me of wanting to tank, I'm all in on the playoffs this year now. Might change my mind if the team stutters badly enough down the stretch, but my preference is making the playoffs.
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,031
- 12,751
Overwhelmingly, excitedly, without a shadow of a doubt, and hitting the mute button so the Hawks don't hear me laughing at them during the trade call. I really, really, really, really, really disagree that the comparison can even be made between the two of them.
Bedard has 22 fewer career NHL games played than Holloway but has 41 more career points. Bedard has played every one of those games as a teenager and at a younger age than Holloway was when he played his first NHL game. This is Holloway's 4th pro season after playing NCAA in his D+1 season. He has 122 professional points through 222 professional games. This is Bedard's D+2 pro season and he has 115 NHL points through 137 NHL games. Just shy of Holloway's combined NHL/AHL total in his D+5 season. I don't see even a remote comparison.
I would be "set the building on fire" level livid if I found out we weren't willing to trade Holloway for Bedard.
Glad to see we still have some level of objectivity with regards to Holloway / Bedard.
The flip side is that Holloway is better today by a significant amount when measuring “well-roundedness” and has size and physicality that Bedard never will. The chance of Bedard stagnating and never become an above-PPG “star” is greater than zero. There’s still a good likelihood that he has another “leveling-up” or two coming, but there’s also a chance he remains in that tier below “star” and plateaus as a 70-80 point, 40-goal winger who is only average defensively.
I think if there was a “who do you take for ‘25-‘26 only, Bedard vs. Holloway”, poll it might be close, based on the state of the organizations and this years production. I’d expect a “for the future” poll to skew heavily in Bedard’s favor…but there’s a real chance that Holloway becomes a PPG winger in his own right and makes the comparison closer than anyone would have guessed in a few years.
The flip side is that Holloway is better today by a significant amount when measuring “well-roundedness” and has size and physicality that Bedard never will. The chance of Bedard stagnating and never become an above-PPG “star” is greater than zero. There’s still a good likelihood that he has another “leveling-up” or two coming, but there’s also a chance he remains in that tier below “star” and plateaus as a 70-80 point, 40-goal winger who is only average defensively.
I think if there was a “who do you take for ‘25-‘26 only, Bedard vs. Holloway”, poll it might be close, based on the state of the organizations and this years production. I’d expect a “for the future” poll to skew heavily in Bedard’s favor…but there’s a real chance that Holloway becomes a PPG winger in his own right and makes the comparison closer than anyone would have guessed in a few years.
MissouriMook
Still just a Mook among men
- Jul 4, 2014
- 7,822
- 8,174
Probably an exercise in futility, but if there was interest, I wonder if we could get John Tavares to come here on a 2 x $8M deal. Leave Dvorsky in the AHL for another year then have JT tutor him in 2026-2027. You could run a Top 9 next season that would get pretty balanced minutes, something like:
Holloway-Thomas-Kyrou
Buchnevich-Tavares-Bolduc
Neighbours-Schenn-Snuggerud
You would still have Toropchenko, Sundqvist, Walker, and Joseph to round out the 4th line. JT is still a great faceoff man, still has plenty of offensive juice, and I don't think he really hurts you defensively. I'd still rather see us go big game hunting for a guy like Marner, but I think JT would make a great consolation prize on a two-year deal.
Holloway-Thomas-Kyrou
Buchnevich-Tavares-Bolduc
Neighbours-Schenn-Snuggerud
You would still have Toropchenko, Sundqvist, Walker, and Joseph to round out the 4th line. JT is still a great faceoff man, still has plenty of offensive juice, and I don't think he really hurts you defensively. I'd still rather see us go big game hunting for a guy like Marner, but I think JT would make a great consolation prize on a two-year deal.
ChicagoBlues
See
- Oct 24, 2006
- 14,334
- 5,519
I like “what ifs”.
It would be a direct challenge heaped upon Dvo, which would be good. He would be forced to push himself and up his game. Or not.
Looks god but I would switch Schenn and Thomas. 1. Schenn has been with Holloway and Kyrou for aver half a year and they have been lights out. 2. Snuggy needs someone to feed him for the one-timer like Thomas can, and Neighbors is the heavy. JMHO
Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
- 16,780
- 5,476
If we tanked harder in the Thomas draft we also could have landed Makar, Heiskanen, Pettersson, Necas, Suzuki or Thomas himself. If we had a later pick than Thomas’ selection, the only other close players in that draft would be Oettinger or Robertson.
Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
Signing a Toronto UFA center to a short term deal to mentor our top center prospect does sound enticing to me.
It kinda seems like one of Marner or Tavares gets to free agency in almost any scenario. Kinda need unexpected trade to occur to have them both retained before July 1.
If Marner stays then they’ll have Knies at risk of an offer sheet - not sure they can sign Tavares and be safe. Would have to be a super big pay cut. Their defense/goalie spend commitment increases from now til next year. They’d spend most? of the benefits of the cap going up from their commitments to d/g and Marner’s raise, so if they also signed Tavares, seems like they could go all summer without the room to match a bigger offer to Knies.
If Marner stays then they’ll have Knies at risk of an offer sheet - not sure they can sign Tavares and be safe. Would have to be a super big pay cut. Their defense/goalie spend commitment increases from now til next year. They’d spend most? of the benefits of the cap going up from their commitments to d/g and Marner’s raise, so if they also signed Tavares, seems like they could go all summer without the room to match a bigger offer to Knies.
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He’s younger and yet ahead of Holloway by a season (breaking out wise), but I think Wyatt Johnston on Dallas. Similar size, speed and tenacity. Johnson just signed a contract for 5yr @ $8.4 million AAV. Their stats are very close this year. Johnston put up similar stats last season though. He was a 2021 draft where Holloway was a 2020 draft.
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,031
- 12,751
And all it would have cost us long term was the 2019 Stanley Cup.
The top 5 scorers on that 2016/17 Blues team were all on the Cup team. 4 of them were in our top 5 scorers in the 2019 playoffs. "Tanking harder" that year would have meant dismantling a pretty young core of guys that won us a Cup.
Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
- 16,780
- 5,476
Agreed. I am not saying we should have done it. It wouldn’t have made sense at that time. This was in response to a point made in someone’s post.
The comment was that if we were higher in the draft we could have picked someone worse. It is certainly a potential.
My response was that if we were higher in the draft that we could have gotten someone better or comparable as well. If we had been later in that draft, we more than likely had ended up with someone worse. That’s true of most drafts and why draft position matters. It’s still on your scouts and director to make the best of those positions. But the better the options they have to chose from, the more likely you are to end up with someone good if your scouts themselves are good. I would say ours have proven to be just that.
On a slant note: Johnston is the only player drafted after Bolduc in the 2021 1st round that I would rather have right now. It was a super weird draft because of the pandemic, but I think we did a good job there.
And to take responsibility for things I’ve said before: that hasn’t always been the case for me. At various times over the past 4 years, I would have preferred it if we took Lucius, Svechkov, Lysell, Bourgault, Ceulemans, Lambos, or L’Hereux over Bolduc in that draft. Especially after being left off back-to-back WJCs and a very mediocre rookie AHL season last year, it wasn’t at all clear that Bolduc’s offensive skills would translate from the Q, or that he could do anything else well enough to be successful.
A couple of lessons there. (A) I give Bolduc a ton of credit for the steps he’s taken to become a well-rounded player this season. He’s been indispensable during this late surge. And (B) development paths aren’t always linear, but when in doubt: go with the guy who can pot 50+.
The realistic range of how far a tanking Blues team could drop (imagine a team that sold off aggressively at the deadline, but still trades that you could find a partner for) is somewhat limited. We were never going to be able to challenge the truly bad teams. I’m not going to look up the specifics for the purpose of this post, but there is a scenario where the top player on the team’s board is the same guy at both the ‘early’ pick and whatever we end up with.
I bet we’d be surprised at how much teams’ individual boards vary from the composite scouting rankings.
Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
- 16,780
- 5,476
I think the scenario you are discussing is entirely possible for a differential of a couple picks and most likely the later in the draft the more likely it becomes. There is also more potential if there is a guy in one of your tiers that is the last remaining player in that tier that the longer you wait to pick, the more likely he is gone and you have to go to a lesser tier. The higher up in the draft you go, the more likely you are in a higher tier on your draft board and likely to get a guy in one of those higher tiers.
Given that the Blues drafted at 10 recently, I think it’s fair to argue that we could have gotten close to top five with a couple subtractions. Top 3 would be less likely as those team gut it to the studs. There is always the lottery and your chances of moving up get higher as you move up the draft list.
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