He's in a similar situation as David Jiricek and Broberg before we got him. I think right now we are riding the high of Broberg and thinking most top prospects just need a change of scenery, but plenty of those guys do genuinely flop. Boqvist was a recent top 10 pick that flopped, Drysdale and Korchinski are guys that aren't developing, Juolevi was another top pick that busted.
This is why any suggestion of Kyrou for Mercer+Nemec is just a bad idea. Both of those guys are either trending down or stagnating. Similar to Broberg, Nemec or those guys can make sense, but only when the value is cheap.
The key is finding the guys that are under-utilized and have more to give. Broberg played on his off-side, never got much consistency, so you could see where there was potential. Or finding a guy like Dunn when he was here, where for whatever reason, he just couldn't get the role he was meant for, despite pretty decent stats.
I'd absolutely still take the risk on a guy like Nemec, but I still wouldn't be offering up Kyrou or Dvorsky or Snuggerud. The benefit that we have, we have a clear role for an offensive minded defenseman. We have a Parayko pair to shelter them during 5v5, and we have a wide open path for a PP QB. That's hard to have on a contending team. I think at the draft, things can get a bit more interesting with our 1st round pick, assuming it's in that 12-16 range, where it carries value, but the prospect will be a lot easier to trade.