It’s how JR’s latest article read:
LOS ANGELES — The St. Louis Blues would like to be in a playoff position heading into the NHL trade deadline on Friday.
Instead, they’re in a precarious position.
The Blues aren’t seen as buyers, they may not be sellers, and while standing pat seems to be the likely option, that’s no guarantee either.
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After making up some major ground in the Western Conference standings, they head into their game against the LA Kings on Wednesday within reach of the second wild card, and that has brought on some uncertainty this week.
The headline has been Blues captain Brayden Schenn, who has a full no-trade clause and controls his future.
General manager Doug Armstrong hasn’t been shopping him necessarily but has been fielding interest. But after seeing his club go 5-1-1 in its last seven games, the GM is said to be on the fence about moving his captain, which is why Schenn fell from No. 11 to No. 31 in Chris Johnston’s
trade board at
The Athletic Tuesday.
The problem: What kind of message would it be to the players to implore them to go on a run and get into the playoff picture, and then when they do, pull the rug out from under them? And what kind of experience could be lost for players such as Jake Neighbours and Zack Bolduc, who’ve never been in the playoffs?
The probability of the Blues making the playoffs is just 10 percent
according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. However, Moneypuck.com gives them a
26.4 percent chance of qualifying.
Regardless of how the Blues view their odds, the price for Schenn is
reportedly high, which checks out with Armstrong’s history.
A year ago, Pavel Buchnevich was one of the top trade targets at the deadline, and Armstrong admitted afterward that he was asking a mother lode for the winger. The GM didn’t get it, so he held onto Buchnevich and re-signed him to
a six-year, $48 million extension in the offseason.
Schenn’s situation, however, is a little different. He’s 33 years old with three years remaining on his contract ($6.5 million AAV), whereas Buchnevich is 29 and had just this season left on his deal before his extension kicks in in 2025-26.
The Blues aren’t deciding whether to re-sign Schenn like they were Buchnevich. They are simply deciding whether it’s worth keeping him for the playoff push — and beyond — or take advantage of the market interest.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have done some due diligence on Schenn, checking in with those who watch the Blues play regularly, and
The Athletic also analyzed
the trade fit. The New Jersey Devils could be another possible suitor,
especially now with an injury to Jack Hughes.
So it’s shaping up to be a decision based on whether the Blues are wowed by an offer for Schenn, and if not, they’ll have no problem hanging onto him and trying to sneak into a wild-card spot.
At various points this season, management’s inner circle has been telling others they believe this is a playoff-caliber club, and with ownership spending to the $88.5 million salary cap, qualifying for the postseason would help justify that.
The Blues could keep Schenn and still miss the playoffs, but currently, no teams around them in the standings are playing well. The Calgary Flames were 3-5-2 in their last 10 games before Tuesday’s action, while the Vancouver Canucks are 4-5-1 and the Utah Hockey Club is 6-4.
The Blues also have the easiest schedule in the NHL the rest of the way,
according to Tankathon.com. They have 20 games remaining, and the combined points percentage of those teams is .521. Only seven of the final 20 games are against opponents in a playoff position and two of those are against the Kings, whom the Blues beat 4-1 last week.
When looking at the position the Blues are in at the trade deadline, some are comparing it to the 2017-2018 season. The Blues were one point out of a playoff spot when they dealt Paul Stastny to the Winnipeg Jets for a first-round pick, a fourth-round pick and prospect Erik Foley.
It was surprising, but there were three distinct differences between that scenario and the current one.
The Blues traded Paul Stastny to the Jets for picks and a prospect at the 2018 deadline. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
For starters, the Blues had made six consecutive postseason appearances at that time, not like now when they’re in jeopardy of missing out for a third straight year. Secondly, Stastny was in the last year of a four-year, $28 million contract, so he was a pending unrestricted free agent. Finally, the team was 0-5-1 in its previous six games and had been shut out 4-0 in back-to-back games before the trade, so things were headed in the wrong direction.
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The Blues did eventually miss the playoffs by one point, and Stastny could’ve made the difference, but the circumstances are not completely alike.
If anything, the results of the Stastny trade illustrate that things may not materialize as teams hope. The Blues got the Jets’ first-round pick (No. 29 overall) and traded that pick, along with a third-rounder, to Toronto to move up four spots to No. 25. They took forward Dominick Bokk, whom they later packaged to the Carolina Hurricanes in the deal for Justin Faulk. Also, Foley dealt with concussion symptoms and never played in the NHL.
Whichever way the Blues decide to proceed with Schenn, they’re going to handle the situation with care.
It was Armstrong who A) hand-picked Schenn as the team’s current captain and B) worked out an eight-year, $52 million contract with Schenn’s agent, Ben Hankinson, after Schenn left Newport Sports Management.
Hankinson is also the agent of Blues GM-in-waiting Alexander Steen and the two have a great relationship. So if you’re a Schenn fan, rest assured that if the Blues decide to approach him about waiving his no-trade clause, he’ll receive the utmost respect.
Meanwhile, the Blues have two other pending UFAs heading into the deadline.
Radek Faksa, 31, is in the final year of his contract ($3.25 million AAV). He’s been a decent pickup from the Dallas Stars, but he’s been penalty-prone lately. He could be of interest to a contending team as a fourth-line center but isn’t likely to bring much in return.
Ryan Suter, 40, is playing out the one-year deal he signed with the Blues last summer ($775,000 plus bonuses). He’s played in all 62 games this season and could help a club as a third-pair or depth defenseman, but also won’t yield much.
If the Blues win Wednesday in LA, they’ll likely keep Faksa and Suter, and the rest of their roster, intact at the deadline. They’ll find out if it’s enough to make the playoffs — a scenario that looked a lot less likely just a week or so ago