He is?
He had 20 goals and 46 points last season. He is currently on pace for 16 goals and 46 points this season. He's improved the +/- (-22 last year and on pace for -10 this year) but he is turning the puck over more and taking the puck away from guys less. His possession numbers are better, but he's also getting noticeably more sheltered than last year. He had a 26 game stretch this year where he was playing really well. Game 1 of that stretch was the first game under Monty, so I was optimistic that it was going to last all year. But he was awful before the coaching change and his last 8 games have been rough. He has 3 goals, 9 assists and is -14 in the 30 total games on either side of that awesome 26 game stretch.
Streakiness is nothing new for him and I think he's got a decent chance of hitting 50 points. But I can't say that he has been better overall. FWIW, he had a couple awesome 15+ game stretches last year too.
The lack of a 3C is absolutely a major hole, but it isn't like we had a great 3C last year. Hayes had 13 goals and 29 points as our 3C. I think it was reasonable to believe the additions of Broberg and Holloway would largely offset the losses of Krug and Hayes. I'm not at all saying that this current team doesn't have holes, but on paper it has fewer than last year's.
I think you could also mention the goaltending slide here, which I believe you noted as a significant possibility this off season. Or maybe it was someone else.
Goaltending was a major part of our over performing last year. Any roster improvement over last years team was going to need to be significant to over come any slide given how well they played. The defense was especially challenged. Army made adjustments there. So their was cause for some optimism on D.
But I think a lot of his depth signings as well as Buch flopped. Maybe on paper it looks better in a vacuum, but adding a bunch of new players often requires time to everyone to gel. Our two offersheets didn’t take any time and Suter was ok to start, but we knew from the get go that we couldn’t rely on Suter as the season progressed given heavy usage.
As for all the other depth we absolutely didn’t strike gold and there were reasons teams moved on from those guys at a low cost. We should have gotten more out of them than we got, but we had an unseasoned coach with a mediocre resume, so assuming everyone would perform well shouldn’t be an expectation.
Then we also needed to expect Buch and other vets declining each year (on average) moving forward. Buch shouldn’t have fell off like he did. But putting him at center was likely going to hamper his production.
Faulk hasn’t surprised.
Schenn hasn’t surprised.
Binnington ebbs and flows year to year and Hofer is young and not consistently getting playing time.
I thought Neighbours over produced last year, so it’s not surprising where he is at the moment.
Holloway has been a pleasant surprise as was Broberg who played amazing but returned back to earth (which is still a very good player and admittedly better than I thought…though not terribly far off).
Al this to say that I am not saying we couldn’t have competed for a wild card spot, but what is happening now could easily have been an assumption as well (This all is not really directed at you though. I just went tired, stream of consciousness.)