2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[PocketNines]

I saw a thought expressed that "if the Blues had average goaltending they would be in a playoff spot." A sign of very poor thinking.

League average goaltending is .900 this season. We are OBVIOUSLY in a new era from the .915 average days and have been going there for years now. People don't know that. Blues are .898 overall. Hofer is .901 and Binnington is .896.

Binnington has allowed 83 goals on 799 shots. If he had allowed 80 goals on 799 shots he would be .900, league average. So instead of 5 goals last night, he had allowed 2, we would have won the game and not been in a wild card spot. We would have been in 11th, not super far from 8th, but still factually 11th according to point percentages and the NHL waiver order (and also the way baseball, football and basketball fans easily understand standings, they must all be smarter than ole Mud Bunson the ancient Canadian who set it up this way).

Had Binnington last night gotten a shutout like the two he's gotten in the last 16 days then he would be above league average but they'd be below a wild card spot, them obviously dragging him down. Right?

I get it though, we hate Binner, gotta get him. He competes so hard for us so consistently. F that guy

Beware this dumb argument if you see it in the wild!

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I saw a thought expressed that "if the Blues had average goaltending they would be in a playoff spot." A sign of very poor thinking.

League average goaltending is .900 this season. We are OBVIOUSLY in a new era from the .915 average days and have been going there for years now. People don't know that. Blues are .898 overall. Hofer is .901 and Binnington is .896.

Binnington has allowed 83 goals on 799 shots. If he had allowed 80 goals on 799 shots he would be .900, league average. So instead of 5 goals last night, he had allowed 2, we would have won the game and not been in a wild card spot. We would have been in 11th, not super far from 8th, but still factually 11th according to point percentages and the NHL waiver order (and also the way baseball, football and basketball fans easily understand standings, they must all be smarter than ole Mud Bunson the ancient Canadian who set it up this way).

Had Binnington last night gotten a shutout like the two he's gotten in the last 16 days then he would be above league average but they'd be below a wild card spot, them obviously dragging him down. Right?

I get it though, we hate Binner, gotta get him. He competes so hard for us so consistently. F that guy

Beware this dumb argument if you see it in the wild!

Hrmmm, I'm not quite sure I can agree with this. Save % is a part of the equation, that's for sure, but I think GSAx is a pretty telling stat, and Binner (And even more-so Hofer) have been pretty rough in that category.

According to Moneypuck, Binner is ranked 25th among all goalies with at least 13 games played with 2.4 goals saved above expected. Before yesterday's game, he was sitting around 3.5, which was after he had two shutouts in his last four starts. Hofer is sitting at 47th, with minus 6.4 GSAx. So according to Moneypuck, we've given up 4 more goals then expected this year.

Evolving Hockey is even worse, with Binner ranked 31st among all goalies (Similiar GP) with a .33 GSAx, and Hofer is sitting at 43rd with a -4.96. According to Evolving Hockey, we've given up 4.5 more goals then expected.

For comparison, Evolving Hockey showed both goalies more favorably then Moneypuck last year. Moneypuck showed Binner at 16.5 GSAx (5th best), whereas Evolving Hockey had him at 29.74 (Second best in the league). Moneypuck had Hofer saving 10.3 and Evolving Hockey had him saving 12.36.

Long story short, Goaltending has been rough this year. Binner is very clearly in the bottom third of all starters, and Hofer has frankly barely been NHL caliber at all. I'm not sure what "League Average" looks like, but I would guess we've gotten at best League Average from Binny, with Below League Average from Hofer through the first half.

 

[PocketNines]

Wait, so if we've given up 4 more goals than expected this year ... and instead of 5 he gave up 0 last night ... he would also have then been slightly above average. It's literally my point and example.

It definitely is NOT true that if he had saved 4 more goals we would be in a playoff spot. We absolutely, flat our, would not. We would be in 11th! (just like I said above). And we could fairly bitch at the whole team for letting him down. With the performance he's given them they should be in 10th at minimum so they still are actually letting him down. So we technically can.

He's given them 9th or 10th best in the conf level but they're only 11th. They're screwing him over!!

 

[Xerloris]

1 more year, each. Leddy, Saad, and Fowler all end at the same time. Joseph, Sundqvist, Walker and Torpo, too

Faulk, the year after

I bet we resign Fowler

Hrmmm, I'm not quite sure I can agree with this. Save % is a part of the equation, that's for sure, but I think GSAx is a pretty telling stat, and Binner (And even more-so Hofer) have been pretty rough in that category.

According to Moneypuck, Binner is ranked 25th among all goalies with at least 13 games played with 2.4 goals saved above expected. Before yesterday's game, he was sitting around 3.5, which was after he had two shutouts in his last four starts. Hofer is sitting at 47th, with minus 6.4 GSAx. So according to Moneypuck, we've given up 4 more goals then expected this year.

Evolving Hockey is even worse, with Binner ranked 31st among all goalies (Similiar GP) with a .33 GSAx, and Hofer is sitting at 43rd with a -4.96. According to Evolving Hockey, we've given up 4.5 more goals then expected.

For comparison, Evolving Hockey showed both goalies more favorably then Moneypuck last year. Moneypuck showed Binner at 16.5 GSAx (5th best), whereas Evolving Hockey had him at 29.74 (Second best in the league). Moneypuck had Hofer saving 10.3 and Evolving Hockey had him saving 12.36.

Long story short, Goaltending has been rough this year. Binner is very clearly in the bottom third of all starters, and Hofer has frankly barely been NHL caliber at all. I'm not sure what "League Average" looks like, but I would guess we've gotten at best League Average from Binny, with Below League Average from Hofer through the first half.

I'll be concerned when our goaltending is legitimately the reason we miss the playoffs

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I bet we resign Fowler


I'll be concerned when our goaltending is legitimately the reason we miss the playoffs

Me too. I bet we re-sign Fowler.

 

[oPlaiD]

Wait, so if we've given up 4 more goals than expected this year ... and instead of 5 he gave up 0 last night ... he would also have then been slightly above average. It's literally my point and example.

It definitely is NOT true that if he had saved 4 more goals we would be in a playoff spot. We absolutely, flat our, would not. We would be in 11th! (just like I said above). And we could fairly bitch at the whole team for letting him down. With the performance he's given them they should be in 10th at minimum so they still are actually letting him down. So we technically can.

He's given them 9th or 10th best in the conf level but they're only 11th. They're screwing him over!!

This is definitely true, but it's also still a little frustrating since last year, as Badger pointed out, Binnington was a top 5 goaltender and Hofer was also plus. If we had a similar goaltending performance so far, it likely would make the difference to put us into playoff position.

That said no one realistically expected them to perform at that level again, but it's fair to be a little disappointed they've regressed to a point where we're arguing if they deserve to even be called average versus solidly, if not spectacularly, plus.

 

[PocketNines]

Yes, he hasn't been a top 5 goaltender this year. One of the things about a top 5 performance is it's way above average. Sure, it's disappointing that way above average isn't this season. Is it reasonable to expect way above average year over year? Is it? Let's think about that one.

He's been average. People have done a fantastic job forgetting all of the times early this season when we were acknowledging Binnington as the difference between getting points and not. You could look at each game he's played this year and break it down one by one and there is no way, absolutely no way he has cost them more points than he's clawed for them. And no it's not ok to just dismiss the games you don't like because it's a shutout against a team you feel ready to discount for context reasons.

My point is that a player who has been barely below average on a team that's definitely been below average as a whole should not be singled out for blame, and yet that is what's happening. Since the guy fights harder for your interest as a fan than pretty much every player and is the only player at his position on this franchise who ever gave The Performance of a Lifetime in the Clutch that You Can Savor Forever, I think it's really rotten as a reaction and I'm going to let you hear about it, that's all

 

[PocketNines]

Brodin out day to day and Faber out indefinitely from the contact with Neighbours. There is contact to the head but look at Faber's body position just prior. Sorry for the blur someone else can post it way better

 

[Xerloris]

This is definitely true, but it's also still a little frustrating since last year, as Badger pointed out, Binnington was a top 5 goaltender and Hofer was also plus. If we had a similar goaltending performance so far, it likely would make the difference to put us into playoff position.

That said no one realistically expected them to perform at that level again, but it's fair to be a little disappointed they've regressed to a point where we're arguing if they deserve to even be called average versus solidly, if not spectacularly, plus.

So lets blame the goalie for nor carrying a shit team into the playoffs?

If only our PK wasn't 65% we could make the playoffs
If only our PP wasn't 12% we could make the playoffs
if only our face off % was better
if only

 

[PocketNines]

In order to make the playoffs we have to finish = to 4th in the Pacific because 4 teams in the Central are pretty far ahead. the two game losing streak put a real damper on things. Nevertheless, Vancouver is hugely scuffling and there are three straight games against Calgary and Utah next week.

Van + 6
Cgy +5
Utah +1 (better pct due to game in hand)
Blues +1

these teams have plenty of games in hand on the Blues, but if the Blues go 3-0 against Calgary and Utah they are still in the thick of it.

every year without fail people project needing 98-99 points to get into the playoffs, but if there's a gap between teams 7 and 8 then it might take 91 to get in the playoffs, something low like that. It's possible and is way more likely than 98

 

[bleedblue1223]

Blues have interest in Viktor Lodin. He's been playing LW this season.

Viktor Lodin Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Rumor: - Viktor Lodin(Färjestad) to the NHL next summer(Detroit/St Louis interested so far)

 

[bleedblue1223]

And I know Schenn is in his decline and gets a lot of crap, but Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou has been a very good 2nd line and Schenn has been producing like a top 6 center once they've become a permanent line.

 

[Brian39]

So lets blame the goalie for nor carrying a shit team into the playoffs?

If only our PK wasn't 65% we could make the playoffs
If only our PP wasn't 12% we could make the playoffs
if only our face off % was better
if only

Not that the special teams are great, but the PP is at 17.9% and the PK is at 73.8% on the season. Both are in the bottom third of the league, but neither is the outright disaster your numbers would suggest.

The goalies haven't been good enough over the last month and have actively cost us too many games in that stretch. But they were more than good enough and actively won us a surplus of games before that. As a whole, I'd say that we have gotten average-to-slightly-below-average goaltending through our first 43 games. That is less than what this tandem is capable of and is less than what we need out of them in order to be a playoff team.

I'm not blaming them any more than I'm 'blaming' a number of issues, but they need to (and IMO opinion will) be better in the 2nd half of the season if we are going to make a playoff push.

In a roundabout way, their play in the last month is actually a big reason that I'm optimistic about this team's ability to get into the playoffs. We're 5th in goals per game since Montgomery took over. Since Monty took over, we haven't lost in regulation when our goalies post an .890 SV% or better. We're 11-7-3 under Monty. Playing at exactly that pace in our remaining games would see us finish with 90 points. Slightly better play than what we've seen out of the goalies since Monty took over would be enough to very likely get in. I think they are more than capable of that.

So again, I'm not 'blaming' the goalies, but I think they haven't been quite good enough over the last 5 weeks and I think they will be better.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

And I know Schenn is in his decline and gets a lot of crap, but Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou has been a very good 2nd line and Schenn has been producing like a top 6 center once they've become a permanent line.

As long as those three keep up their chemistry I'm fine with keeping them together for the rest of this season. Going into next season we really need a top 6 winger and a middle 6 center tho. Tho I do expect those to be filled by Dvo and Snuggy.

 

[Brian39]

And I know Schenn is in his decline and gets a lot of crap, but Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou has been a very good 2nd line and Schenn has been producing like a top 6 center once they've become a permanent line.

I think it goes back to before when that line was put together. He has 5 goals, 15 points, and is +6 since the coaching change (21 games). He has a point in 13 of those 21 games and his longest scoreless streak was just 2 games (which happened twice). He had three instances of 3+ game scoreless streaks under Bannister. He had 5 points in Monty's first 5 games (and was on a 4 game scoring drought when Bannister got fired). Only 1 of the 15 points came on the PP, so it isn't like he's struggling to produce at even strength.

Whether is system, effort, leadership, or whatever, Schenn has played at the level we need out of him since Monty took over. I agree that the Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou line has really worked and I want them kept together. I just wanted to point out that Schenn's play has been good for over 20 games now, not just since Monty put those 3 together.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Schenn has 15 points in 21 games since Monty took over, a 59 point pace, and a +6.

Brian beat me to the stats.

I think it goes back to before when that line was put together. He has 5 goals, 15 points, and is +6 since the coaching change (21 games). He has a point in 13 of those 21 games and is longest scoreless streak was just 2 games (which happened twice). He had three instances of 3+ game scoreless streaks under Bannister. He had 5 points in Monty's first 5 games (and was on a 4 game scoring drought when Bannister got fired).

Whether is is system, or effort, or whatever, Schenn has played at the level we need out of him since Monty took over. I agree that the Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou line has really worked and I want them kept together. I just wanted to point out that Schenn's play has been good for over 20 games now, not just since Monty put those 3 together.

Yeah, I've thought about making a post with his stats lately, but when I looked at last season he also had some similar stretches, so I didn't want to make too big a deal about it. This could just be a typical streak from Schenn, similar to how last season he had similar streaks, but it's really about limiting the scoring droughts, and we'll just have to wait and see on that.

If Schenn is able to keep this play up, we more or less acquired our #2 C.

 

[Xerloris]

Not that the special teams are great, but the PP is at 17.9% and the PK is at 73.8% on the season. Both are in the bottom third of the league, but neither is the outright disaster your numbers would suggest.

The goalies haven't been good enough over the last month and have actively cost us too many games in that stretch. But they were more than good enough and actively won us a surplus of games before that. As a whole, I'd say that we have gotten average-to-slightly-below-average goaltending through our first 43 games. That is less than what this tandem is capable of and is less than what we need out of them in order to be a playoff team.

I'm not blaming them any more than I'm 'blaming' a number of issues, but they need to (and IMO opinion will) be better in the 2nd half of the season if we are going to make a playoff push.

In a roundabout way, their play in the last month is actually a big reason that I'm optimistic about this team's ability to get into the playoffs. We're 5th in goals per game since Montgomery took over. Since Monty took over, we haven't lost in regulation when our goalies post an .890 SV% or better. We're 11-7-3 under Monty. Playing at exactly that pace in our remaining games would see us finish with 90 points. Slightly better play than what we've seen out of the goalies since Monty took over would be enough to very likely get in. I think they are more than capable of that.

So again, I'm not 'blaming' the goalies, but I think they haven't been quite good enough over the last 5 weeks and I think they will be better.

I agree they need to be better and have been better in the past but I think we both agree they are not the sole reason we may miss the playoffs.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

From a article by TheHockeyWriters

"Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou have played very well together this season. With the two on the ice, the Blues hold a 70 goals percentage (G%) and 58.90 expected goals percentage (xG%), according to Natural Stat Trick. When only one of them is on the ice, those numbers drop, and with neither on the ice, the team posts a 36.22 G% and 39.60 xG%."

 

[MissouriMook]

From a article by TheHockeyWriters

"Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou have played very well together this season. With the two on the ice, the Blues hold a 70 goals percentage (G%) and 58.90 expected goals percentage (xG%), according to Natural Stat Trick. When only one of them is on the ice, those numbers drop, and with neither on the ice, the team posts a 36.22 G% and 39.60 xG%."

That last line is "Yikes!"

 

[Brian39]

I agree they need to be better and have been better in the past but I think we both agree they are not the sole reason we may miss the playoffs.

I might just have them on ignore, but I haven't seen anyone arguing that.