2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[PocketNines]

I saw a thought expressed that "if the Blues had average goaltending they would be in a playoff spot." A sign of very poor thinking.

League average goaltending is .900 this season. We are OBVIOUSLY in a new era from the .915 average days and have been going there for years now. People don't know that. Blues are .898 overall. Hofer is .901 and Binnington is .896.

Binnington has allowed 83 goals on 799 shots. If he had allowed 80 goals on 799 shots he would be .900, league average. So instead of 5 goals last night, he had allowed 2, we would have won the game and not been in a wild card spot. We would have been in 11th, not super far from 8th, but still factually 11th according to point percentages and the NHL waiver order (and also the way baseball, football and basketball fans easily understand standings, they must all be smarter than ole Mud Bunson the ancient Canadian who set it up this way).

Had Binnington last night gotten a shutout like the two he's gotten in the last 16 days then he would be above league average but they'd be below a wild card spot, them obviously dragging him down. Right?

I get it though, we hate Binner, gotta get him. He competes so hard for us so consistently. F that guy

Beware this dumb argument if you see it in the wild!

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I saw a thought expressed that "if the Blues had average goaltending they would be in a playoff spot." A sign of very poor thinking.

League average goaltending is .900 this season. We are OBVIOUSLY in a new era from the .915 average days and have been going there for years now. People don't know that. Blues are .898 overall. Hofer is .901 and Binnington is .896.

Binnington has allowed 83 goals on 799 shots. If he had allowed 80 goals on 799 shots he would be .900, league average. So instead of 5 goals last night, he had allowed 2, we would have won the game and not been in a wild card spot. We would have been in 11th, not super far from 8th, but still factually 11th according to point percentages and the NHL waiver order (and also the way baseball, football and basketball fans easily understand standings, they must all be smarter than ole Mud Bunson the ancient Canadian who set it up this way).

Had Binnington last night gotten a shutout like the two he's gotten in the last 16 days then he would be above league average but they'd be below a wild card spot, them obviously dragging him down. Right?

I get it though, we hate Binner, gotta get him. He competes so hard for us so consistently. F that guy

Beware this dumb argument if you see it in the wild!

Hrmmm, I'm not quite sure I can agree with this. Save % is a part of the equation, that's for sure, but I think GSAx is a pretty telling stat, and Binner (And even more-so Hofer) have been pretty rough in that category.

According to Moneypuck, Binner is ranked 25th among all goalies with at least 13 games played with 2.4 goals saved above expected. Before yesterday's game, he was sitting around 3.5, which was after he had two shutouts in his last four starts. Hofer is sitting at 47th, with minus 6.4 GSAx. So according to Moneypuck, we've given up 4 more goals then expected this year.

Evolving Hockey is even worse, with Binner ranked 31st among all goalies (Similiar GP) with a .33 GSAx, and Hofer is sitting at 43rd with a -4.96. According to Evolving Hockey, we've given up 4.5 more goals then expected.

For comparison, Evolving Hockey showed both goalies more favorably then Moneypuck last year. Moneypuck showed Binner at 16.5 GSAx (5th best), whereas Evolving Hockey had him at 29.74 (Second best in the league). Moneypuck had Hofer saving 10.3 and Evolving Hockey had him saving 12.36.

Long story short, Goaltending has been rough this year. Binner is very clearly in the bottom third of all starters, and Hofer has frankly barely been NHL caliber at all. I'm not sure what "League Average" looks like, but I would guess we've gotten at best League Average from Binny, with Below League Average from Hofer through the first half.

 

[PocketNines]

Wait, so if we've given up 4 more goals than expected this year ... and instead of 5 he gave up 0 last night ... he would also have then been slightly above average. It's literally my point and example.

It definitely is NOT true that if he had saved 4 more goals we would be in a playoff spot. We absolutely, flat our, would not. We would be in 11th! (just like I said above). And we could fairly bitch at the whole team for letting him down. With the performance he's given them they should be in 10th at minimum so they still are actually letting him down. So we technically can.

He's given them 9th or 10th best in the conf level but they're only 11th. They're screwing him over!!

 

[Xerloris]

1 more year, each. Leddy, Saad, and Fowler all end at the same time. Joseph, Sundqvist, Walker and Torpo, too

Faulk, the year after

I bet we resign Fowler

Hrmmm, I'm not quite sure I can agree with this. Save % is a part of the equation, that's for sure, but I think GSAx is a pretty telling stat, and Binner (And even more-so Hofer) have been pretty rough in that category.

According to Moneypuck, Binner is ranked 25th among all goalies with at least 13 games played with 2.4 goals saved above expected. Before yesterday's game, he was sitting around 3.5, which was after he had two shutouts in his last four starts. Hofer is sitting at 47th, with minus 6.4 GSAx. So according to Moneypuck, we've given up 4 more goals then expected this year.

Evolving Hockey is even worse, with Binner ranked 31st among all goalies (Similiar GP) with a .33 GSAx, and Hofer is sitting at 43rd with a -4.96. According to Evolving Hockey, we've given up 4.5 more goals then expected.

For comparison, Evolving Hockey showed both goalies more favorably then Moneypuck last year. Moneypuck showed Binner at 16.5 GSAx (5th best), whereas Evolving Hockey had him at 29.74 (Second best in the league). Moneypuck had Hofer saving 10.3 and Evolving Hockey had him saving 12.36.

Long story short, Goaltending has been rough this year. Binner is very clearly in the bottom third of all starters, and Hofer has frankly barely been NHL caliber at all. I'm not sure what "League Average" looks like, but I would guess we've gotten at best League Average from Binny, with Below League Average from Hofer through the first half.

I'll be concerned when our goaltending is legitimately the reason we miss the playoffs

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I bet we resign Fowler


I'll be concerned when our goaltending is legitimately the reason we miss the playoffs

Me too. I bet we re-sign Fowler.

 

[oPlaiD]

Wait, so if we've given up 4 more goals than expected this year ... and instead of 5 he gave up 0 last night ... he would also have then been slightly above average. It's literally my point and example.

It definitely is NOT true that if he had saved 4 more goals we would be in a playoff spot. We absolutely, flat our, would not. We would be in 11th! (just like I said above). And we could fairly bitch at the whole team for letting him down. With the performance he's given them they should be in 10th at minimum so they still are actually letting him down. So we technically can.

He's given them 9th or 10th best in the conf level but they're only 11th. They're screwing him over!!

This is definitely true, but it's also still a little frustrating since last year, as Badger pointed out, Binnington was a top 5 goaltender and Hofer was also plus. If we had a similar goaltending performance so far, it likely would make the difference to put us into playoff position.

That said no one realistically expected them to perform at that level again, but it's fair to be a little disappointed they've regressed to a point where we're arguing if they deserve to even be called average versus solidly, if not spectacularly, plus.

 

[PocketNines]

Yes, he hasn't been a top 5 goaltender this year. One of the things about a top 5 performance is it's way above average. Sure, it's disappointing that way above average isn't this season. Is it reasonable to expect way above average year over year? Is it? Let's think about that one.

He's been average. People have done a fantastic job forgetting all of the times early this season when we were acknowledging Binnington as the difference between getting points and not. You could look at each game he's played this year and break it down one by one and there is no way, absolutely no way he has cost them more points than he's clawed for them. And no it's not ok to just dismiss the games you don't like because it's a shutout against a team you feel ready to discount for context reasons.

My point is that a player who has been barely below average on a team that's definitely been below average as a whole should not be singled out for blame, and yet that is what's happening. Since the guy fights harder for your interest as a fan than pretty much every player and is the only player at his position on this franchise who ever gave The Performance of a Lifetime in the Clutch that You Can Savor Forever, I think it's really rotten as a reaction and I'm going to let you hear about it, that's all

 

[PocketNines]

Brodin out day to day and Faber out indefinitely from the contact with Neighbours. There is contact to the head but look at Faber's body position just prior. Sorry for the blur someone else can post it way better

 

[Xerloris]

This is definitely true, but it's also still a little frustrating since last year, as Badger pointed out, Binnington was a top 5 goaltender and Hofer was also plus. If we had a similar goaltending performance so far, it likely would make the difference to put us into playoff position.

That said no one realistically expected them to perform at that level again, but it's fair to be a little disappointed they've regressed to a point where we're arguing if they deserve to even be called average versus solidly, if not spectacularly, plus.

So lets blame the goalie for nor carrying a shit team into the playoffs?

If only our PK wasn't 65% we could make the playoffs
If only our PP wasn't 12% we could make the playoffs
if only our face off % was better
if only