2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[TheDizee]

First time poster, long time lurker. It feels dirty to say as a longtime fan, but I feel like tanking for a top 5 pick would speed up the rebuild and put us in good shape. Also fire Bannister and promote Claude Julien? A man can hope

welcome.

dont forget, we need to trade Kyrou as well.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856707928599711839

Get Loofed

 

[Majorityof1]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856707928599711839

Get Loofed

I wonder if someone got hurt, or if someone is about to get scratched. Or if we are just calling him up to get a cup of coffee and have a back-up just in case since we have 6 healthy D.

 

[BlueDream]

It seems like Leddy is taking longer than they expected, and with how the season is going, I’m fine with him taking his sweet time coming back so we can get an extended look at Loof.

I was hoping he would get a call-up at some point this season so I’m excited to see him. Sounds like he has been doing pretty well in Springfield, and I think his physical presence would be a welcome addition on the 3rd pair.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I wonder if someone got hurt, or if someone is about to get scratched. Or if we are just calling him up to get a cup of coffee and have a back-up just in case since we have 6 healthy D.

I think he's coming in just because we only have 6 Healthy D-Men and they want a change on the back end for a couple games. I'm expecting POJ to get scratched a couple games.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think he's coming in just because we only have 6 Healthy D-Men and they want a change on the back end for a couple games. I'm expecting POJ to get scratched a couple games.

You are most likely right. Joseph I think is a victim here, but he is the likely candidate to be benched. He should be on the 3rd pair getting sheltered. Instead he is taking moderately difficult defensive assignments in the top 4 with Faulk who is not playing well. I'd always bench Perunovich first, but Faulk is the next most deserving. He's a RHD and a bigger name, so POJ is most likely to sit.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

You are most likely right. Joseph I think is a victim here, but he is the likely candidate to be benched. He should be on the 3rd pair getting sheltered. Instead he is taking moderately difficult defensive assignments in the top 4 with Faulk who is not playing well. I'd always bench Perunovich first, but Faulk is the next most deserving. He's a RHD and a bigger name, so POJ is most likely to sit.

I think both POJ and Peru are playing way over their heads right now. Kessel, while he did not start off the season well, has been playing better as of late. Losing Leddy and Broberg so early in the season and finding out both are long term injuries is putting all of Suter, POJ, and Perunovich in terrible spots right now.

 

[PocketNines]

POJ is a fringe NHLer. He is fast but he is flawed. Perunovich is a farcical hockey postulate

Sure, let's see Loof, we don't need any more info out of what POJ can do

 

[joe galiba]

I think both POJ and Peru are playing way over their heads right now. Kessel, while he did not start off the season well, has been playing better as of late. Losing Leddy and Broberg so early in the season and finding out both are long term injuries is putting all of Suter, POJ, and Perunovich in terrible spots right now.

I think Kessel has seemed to be playing a bit better since he has been paired with Perunovich

 

[Brian39]

We've gone 3-5 during the last 8 games with Thomas out. That's good for a 0.375 point capture rate compared to the 4-3 record in the 7 games before Thomas was hurt which was 0.571 point percentage.

Our roster is flawed and looks pretty directionless at times, but we have arguably above average goaltending preventing us from free fall. Looking at some of the other organizations below us, their rosters are fundamentally flawed - being lifted by cornerstone pieces getting their feet wet or in their sophomore seasons while receiving pretty objectively poor goaltending.

We sit 22/32 in the standings. The 10 teams below us with the exception of San Jose missing Celebrini and Columbus having lost Johnny Gaudreau, none are dealing with significant injuries. Nashville, Detroit, Philly and Seattle are underperforming their expectations (bubble teams and then the Preds) - but none of the others were expected to do much of anything this year.

I don't see how 5 of those teams below us can reasonably be expected to pass us in the standings, because even if we continue to flounder with Thomas out - nobody is surging up the standings to the extent that Thomas' return won't boost our point capture rate so that we overtake them.

I know that the current 2 point difference is easily overcome with a bad bounce going in on Binner/Hofer or with our forwards getting snake bitten. But looking at the points percentage over the remaining ~66 games, I don't buy us dropping from our current 11th draft slot to a top 5 one, short of an uncharacteristically fortunate draft lottery win.

I think we're probably going to hit somewhere between a 0.47-0.51 p% and finish somewhere around the 76-82 point mark this year. That's accounting for a drop in play from Thomas returning from injury. Selling at the deadline might creep us towards the 70-75p range - but that won't get us into the top 5 at the draft. Unless our goaltending implodes or one/both of them miss significant time, I have trouble imagining us drafting inside the top 8 right now.

I largely agree with this analysis. I don't think that the roster is bad enough to be a truly horrible mess of a team that finishes below 60 points.

I would also add that we have turned a tie into a loss during the final 4 minutes three times since Thomas got hurt (Philly, Utah, Boston). We have been really good in OT for the last 3 years (10-7 in 2022/23, 12-6 last year, and 2-0 this year). Maybe that is luck in small samples, but I think there is a strong argument that we have a lot of players who thrive in 3 on 3 and goalies who give us an edge when the game turns into trading rush chances. Get 1 or 2 of those 3 games to OT and we are very likely talking about a 2-3 point bump in the standings.

Based on the way we lost those games, I see reason to believe that Thomas in the lineup would have earned us another 2-3 standings points over that sample.

All that said, I do think there are good arguments that we shouldn't expect a .500+ points percentage even if/when we get healthy again.

First and foremost, the underlying numbers are real bad and they were real bad even with Thomas in the lineup. We erased 2 goal deficits in 2 of our 4 wins with Thomas in the lineup and one of the other wins relied on Hofer to make 34 saves AND make an unbelievable outlet pass to start an odd man rush in OT. There is a lot of reason to believe that the formula which got us to 4-3 with a healthy Thomas wasn't sustainable.

Second, how sustainable is the performance we've gotten out of the blueline so far? Broberg was unbelievable before getting hurt. Even if we all agree that he's taken 2 steps forward and those steps are permanent, he likely was going to still regress from the 60 point, +41 pace he was on. Suter has beaten expectations by a mile, but I don't think anyone believes that he can be a big minute top pair D man for 70+ games. Parayko is currently pacing to beat his career-best point total by 11 points. Things are uncomfortably quiet about Leddy's status and the longer that continues the more you have to start worrying about a career-altering injury. There is a really strong argument that the level of play from the blueline will not continue at the level we've gotten so far.

Finally, I do think there are more paths to fall down the standings than you do. We're currently just 2 points up on last place and the entire league on pace to earn 60+ points this year. You mention 76-82 point range as your expected range of finishes. 76 points was good for 5th-worst in the NHL last year and that team picked 5th. Looking at the teams below us, I don't think it is crazy to believe such a finish is 5th worst again.

Nashville is currently dead last with the same number of games played than us. I can certainly see them earning 3 more points than us in the remaining 66 games.

Detroit is only 1 point behind us but have played 2 fewer games. They were a point behind us in the standings last season and are getting competent goaltending when Husso isn't in the net (he is 0-2 and I'd wager that they will avoid playing him as much as possible moving forward). I can certainly see them earning 1 point out of their 2 games in hand and then earning more points than us out of our remaining 66 games.

The Penguins have been a raging tire fire this year, but they have also been getting simply putrid goaltending that is costing them games left and right. The team defense is also a huge part of it, but the goaltending has also been awful. I'm not a big Jarry fan, but he's been a perfectly adequate NHL goaltender for 5 years. He was a mess to start the year, but did very well in his conditioning stint in the AHL. I can definitely see their goaltending improving to 'below average' and then outpacing us for the rest of the year (although we do have a gam in hand).

The Sharks are 2-1-2 with Celebrini in the lineup and I could buy an argument that losing him (and having to move other less-competent youngsters up the lineup was the big driver of their season-opening 9 game losing streak. I could see a healthy Cellebrini and getting-settled Will Smith making them look more like the team of the last few weeks than the first few weeks.

If those teams just slightly outplay us over the next 65 games, you're suddenly talking about a 6 team fight for the top 5 picks between the Blues, Philly, Chicago, Anaheim, Montreal, and Columbus. I think we're better than those teams when healthy, but who knows how many points we continue to give up while Thomas is out. What if Thomas takes 9 weeks to recover instead of 6? What if Broberg is out 6 weeks instead of 4? What if both come back and take 2-3 weeks to get up to speed? I see a lot of reasons the believe that we could get outperformed by one of those teams.

I don't think a top 5 pick is the most likely outcome, but I also don't think it is a tiny, barely realistic potential outcome either.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think both POJ and Peru are playing way over their heads right now. Kessel, while he did not start off the season well, has been playing better as of late. Losing Leddy and Broberg so early in the season and finding out both are long term injuries is putting all of Suter, POJ, and Perunovich in terrible spots right now.

I agree. My only question: If 11 minutes of heavily sheltered (75% ozone starts) 5v5, prime PP position and no PK is too much for Perunovich, what is a good role for him?

I think Kessel has seemed to be playing a bit better since he has been paired with Perunovich

They are sheltering that pair to a ridiculous degree. That accounts for some of Kessel playing better. When it was Kessel/Suter they were getting more difficult deployment to take the load off the rest of the D. I don't think that's the whole story, but its part of it. Another part may be he plays better with a puck mover. Suter/Kessel would get hemmed into their zone more often because they couldn't breakout. The final piece is that Kessel wasn't as bad as he was playing. He was bound to get better.

 

[Brian39]

You are most likely right. Joseph I think is a victim here, but he is the likely candidate to be benched. He should be on the 3rd pair getting sheltered. Instead he is taking moderately difficult defensive assignments in the top 4 with Faulk who is not playing well. I'd always bench Perunovich first, but Faulk is the next most deserving. He's a RHD and a bigger name, so POJ is most likely to sit.

I would be extremely surprised if Perunovich got benched.

He finally scored his first NHL goal 2 games ago and he is currently the QB on the 2nd PP unit (which scored a really pretty tic-tac-toe goal last night). With Broberg and Leddy out, 2nd unit PP QB is a role that legitimately needs filling and it sure as hell isn't with Suter, Kessel, POJ, or Loof. That leaves Parayko or Perunovich. Perunovich is better on the PP and I think the staff very much wants Parayko catching his breath when we are on the PP given what he is being asked to do at 5 on 5 and the PK.

Perunovich has plenty of flaws to his game, but his strengths are in an area that the blue line is severely lacking at the moment. He should be in the lineup right now on skillset alone and he did everything the staff could want from him in the last 2 games. I don't view him as a long term piece here, but he deserves to be in the lineup right now. Plugging him into the 2nd PP unit when several of your better puckhandling D are hurt is exactly why you keep him on your 23 man NHL roster.

 

[Brian39]

I agree. My only question: If 11 minutes of heavily sheltered (75% ozone starts) 5v5, prime PP position and no PK is too much for Perunovich, what is a good role for him?

Perunovich was 54% or better in every metric last night and against Washington. His underlying (and raw shot) numbers were best among all our D men in both games. He has done absolutely everything the staff could have possible asked of him in the last 2 games.

Again, I don't view him as a long term piece. I don't think that he is turning the corner into an every day NHL contributor. But at this exact moment in time, the current role isn't too much for him.

 

[Majorityof1]

I would be extremely surprised if Perunovich got benched.

He finally scored his first NHL goal 2 games ago and he is currently the QB on the 2nd PP unit (which scored a really pretty tic-tac-toe goal last night). With Broberg and Leddy out, 2nd unit PP QB is a role that legitimately needs filling and it sure as hell isn't with Suter, Kessel, POJ, or Loof. That leaves Parayko or Perunovich. Perunovich is better on the PP and I think the staff very much wants Parayko catching his breath when we are on the PP given what he is being asked to do at 5 on 5 and the PK.

Perunovich has plenty of flaws to his game, but his strengths are in an area that the blue line is severely lacking at the moment. He should be in the lineup right now on skillset alone and he did everything the staff could want from him in the last 2 games. I don't view him as a long term piece here, but he deserves to be in the lineup right now. Plugging him into the 2nd PP unit when several of your better puckhandling D are hurt is exactly why you keep him on your 23 man NHL roster.

Perunovich was 54% or better in every metric last night and against Washington. His underlying (and raw shot) numbers were best among all our D men in both games. He has done absolutely everything the staff could have possible asked of him in the last 2 games.

I agree Perunovich isn't getting benched. I, majorityof1, would bench Perunovich. If Loof is going to play though, Bannister will most likely bench POJ.

Perunovich is doing what is expected for 2 games where he is ridiculously sheltered. But that is 2 games. And our PP is still bad. 2 PP goals while he is on the ice in all his games this season does not make up for how bad he is at 5v5 and how much we have to shelter him. Us sheltering him has led to POJ and Faulk being in way over there head. 2 PP goals is not worth that. If we Loof can hold down regular deployment, that is worth more than whatever slight advantage Perunovich gives us on the PP.

 

[joe galiba]

Perunovich was 54% or better in every metric last night and against Washington. His underlying (and raw shot) numbers were best among all our D men in both games. He has done absolutely everything the staff could have possible asked of him in the last 2 games.

Again, I don't view him as a long term piece. I don't think that he is turning the corner into an every day NHL contributor. But at this exact moment in time, the current role isn't too much for him.

Perunovich could be turning the corner, the sample size is small (last 3 games), but he looks like he is carrying himself differently on the ice, a little confidence goes a long way

 

[joe galiba]

I agree Perunovich isn't getting benched. I, majorityof1, would bench Perunovich. If Loof is going to play though, Bannister will most likely bench POJ.

Perunovich is doing what is expected for 2 games where he is ridiculously sheltered. But that is 2 games. And our PP is still bad. 2 PP goals while he is on the ice in all his games this season does not make up for how bad he is at 5v5 and how much we have to shelter him. Us sheltering him has led to POJ and Faulk being in way over there head. 2 PP goals is not worth that. If we Loof can hold down regular deployment, that is worth more than whatever slight advantage Perunovich gives us on the PP.

3rd pair should be sheltered, there is a reason they are on the 3rd pair, they aren't as good as the top 4
1st pair, per d-man, should get 22-25 min, 2nd pair should get 20-22 min, 3rd pair should get 15ish, and that is about where they are
right now, we have one guy that PK's and one that plays the PP, and both get lesser 5v5 time, they have actually done a good job in their roles the last several games

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Perunivich is on a heater!

No, I don’t think he is going to become any more than this.

 

[Majorityof1]

3rd pair should be sheltered, there is a reason they are on the 3rd pair, they aren't as good as the top 4
1st pair, per d-man, should get 22-25 min, 2nd pair should get 20-22 min, 3rd pair should get 15ish, and that is about where they are
right now, we have one guy that PK's and one that plays the PP, and both get lesser 5v5 time, they have actually done a good job in their roles the last several games

3rd pairs are obviously sheltered but not to that amount. Also not when you have a 40 yo who started the year on the 3rd pair now on the first pair and D younger than Perunovich who started the year as a healthy scratch in the top 4. We need to balance out the usage to alleviate their workloads.

If you have a guy who does nothing well, but nothing poorly, you can do that. Having a guy who cannot defend and is known for offense (yet just scored his first goal at 26), you cannot balance anything, even a little bit. Our D deployment, including the 3rd pair was much more balanced before we were forced to play Perunovich.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Not sure I necessarily see Loof coming into the lineup unless they really need him to.

They’re about to go on a 3 game road trip and teams like to have an extra d-man while on the road. And who knows, maybe one of the current 6 is a little dinged up.

Loof has been being used as the T-Birds #5-6 d-man most of the season with 2 healthy scratches. I see this more as them needing a body in the case of an emergency than him doing super well and deserving of a call-up.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Not sure I necessarily see Loof coming into the lineup unless they really need him to.

They’re about to go on a 3 game road trip and teams like to have an extra d-man while on the road. And who knows, maybe one of the current 6 is a little dinged up.

Loof has been being used as the T-Birds #5-6 d-man most of the season with 2 healthy scratches. I see this more as them needing a body in the case of an emergency than him doing super well and deserving of a call-up.

Doesn't help most of the top 4 in Springfield is all offensive D and Tucker. And i think I'd lose my mind if Tucker was called up.

 

[542365]

Doesn't help most of the top 4 in Springfield is all offensive D and Tucker. And i think I'd lose my mind if Tucker was called up.

I think Tucker is injured or something. He didn’t play last game. I feel like if they just wanted a warm body they’d call up Schueneman. He’s played about a half season in the NHL and is left handed.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

We have the lowest xGF/60 at 5v5 in the entire league at 2.12.

That's unacceptable. I know we have some key injuries, but there is no way this team should be last in the league from an offensive standpoint.

Saad, Schenn, and Texier are borderline AHL players at this point.

Bolduc is actually showing that he's a remarkably responsible player, he should be getting top 6 minutes over Neighbors at this juncture.

Sunny is getting massive defensive deployment and he's knocking it out of the park, probably our low key MVP, which is f***ing terrifying now that I'm typing that.

This team might be even farther away then I thought it was.

 

[MissouriMook]

We have the lowest xGF/60 at 5v5 in the entire league at 2.12.

That's unacceptable. I know we have some key injuries, but there is no way this team should be last in the league from an offensive standpoint.

Saad, Schenn, and Texier are borderline AHL players at this point.

Bolduc is actually showing that he's a remarkably responsible player, he should be getting top 6 minutes over Neighbors at this juncture.

Sunny is getting massive defensive deployment and he's knocking it out of the park, probably our low key MVP, which is f***ing terrifying now that I'm typing that.

This team might be even farther away then I thought it was.

I think a lot of what you are seeing is what happens when a coaching staff makes changes up and down the lineup and puts players in roles that are above their skill level or plays skilled players out of their normal position. I am curious as to how things would have played out differently if we had simply put a placeholder into the void left by Thomas and left everyone else where they were instead of shuffling the entire lineup around. Or maybe this is something that just doesn't work in hockey like it does in baseball.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

We have the lowest xGF/60 at 5v5 in the entire league at 2.12.

That's unacceptable. I know we have some key injuries, but there is no way this team should be last in the league from an offensive standpoint.

Saad, Schenn, and Texier are borderline AHL players at this point.

Bolduc is actually showing that he's a remarkably responsible player, he should be getting top 6 minutes over Neighbors at this juncture.

Sunny is getting massive defensive deployment and he's knocking it out of the park, probably our low key MVP, which is f***ing terrifying now that I'm typing that.

This team might be even farther away then I thought it was.

Where would you expect us to rank in xGF? I don't mean to be argumentative, but without Thomas we are severely lacking in guys who can create offense. I'd say our offense should rank in bottom 5 in league, and likely closer to worst than 5th worst..

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Where would you expect us to rank in xGF? I don't mean to be argumentative, but without Thomas we are severely lacking in guys who can create offense. I'd say our offense should rank in bottom 5 in league, and likely closer to worst than 5th worst..

Off the top of my head I would have expected Detroit, Chicago, Minnesota, NYI, Columbus, Calgary, Philly, and Anaheim at the very least.