I would rather just suck it up this year and get a top 5 pick than to waste assets to get a player we don't need next year but have anyway.
We've gone 3-5 during the last 8 games with Thomas out. That's good for a 0.375 point capture rate compared to the 4-3 record in the 7 games before Thomas was hurt which was 0.571 point percentage.
Our roster is flawed and looks pretty directionless at times, but we have arguably above average goaltending preventing us from free fall. Looking at some of the other organizations below us, their rosters are fundamentally flawed - being lifted by cornerstone pieces getting their feet wet or in their sophomore seasons while receiving pretty objectively poor goaltending.
We sit 22/32 in the standings. The 10 teams below us with the exception of San Jose missing Celebrini and Columbus having lost Johnny Gaudreau, none are dealing with significant injuries. Nashville, Detroit, Philly and Seattle are underperforming their expectations (bubble teams and then the Preds) - but none of the others were expected to do much of anything this year.
I don't see how 5 of those teams below us can reasonably be expected to pass us in the standings, because even if we continue to flounder with Thomas out - nobody is surging up the standings to the extent that Thomas' return won't boost our point capture rate so that we overtake them.
I know that the current 2 point difference is easily overcome with a bad bounce going in on Binner/Hofer or with our forwards getting snake bitten. But looking at the points percentage over the remaining ~66 games, I don't buy us dropping from our current 11th draft slot to a top 5 one, short of an uncharacteristically fortunate draft lottery win.
I think we're probably going to hit somewhere between a 0.47-0.51 p% and finish somewhere around the 76-82 point mark this year. That's accounting for a drop in play from Thomas returning from injury. Selling at the deadline might creep us towards the 70-75p range - but that won't get us into the top 5 at the draft. Unless our goaltending implodes or one/both of them miss significant time, I have trouble imagining us drafting inside the top 8 right now.