Player Discussion: 2023 Vezina Finalist Connor Hellebuyck

[Eyeseeing]

If Helle would sign a 5x9 or 6x9 I would do it today. With the projected cap increases over the next few years that 9 will be more comparable to a 6.75-8 today in the last years of the contract. A 35-36 year old Helle will still be a highly productive goalie given he relies more on mechanics than just pure athleticism. He hasn't had a history of nagging injuries so that bodes well for him. Out of any goalies in the league, Helle is the one I would want around in his mid thirties over the other great goalies who rely more on athleticism.

You can’t predict a player’s injury potential because all it takes is one freak play and it’s over or it’s the beginning of an ongoing problem.
Hellebucyk has had amazing durability and doesn’t play dead after getting hit in the crease like most others.
The contractual issues will get addressed, all I hope for from him or any player is a firm commitment to the club.
5 x 7.5 is all I’d want the club to do but it’s understandable if they choose more on both term and money.
CH is refreshingly honest and perhaps he believes the team is putting its best foot forward.
Have we heard anything from his camp lately?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Buffalo are not contenders.



It's actually NJ > Winnipeg > Buffalo.

Buffalo ahead of Winnipeg in cup potential lol. Thanks for the laugh.

All Buffalo is lacking is a goalie and a little PO experience. If they had a goalie like Helle they would be ahead of Wpg, even if Wpg still had Helle.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

All Buffalo is lacking is a goalie and a little PO experience. If they had a goalie like Helle they would be ahead of Wpg, even if Wpg still had Helle.

Buffalo reminds me of us the season Helly started playing full time. The difference though is Helly was 24 at the time and Lind is what 21? I don't know if he is ready and I can't think of a goalie that made a lasting impact on a team at that age

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can’t predict a player’s injury potential because all it takes is one freak play and it’s over or it’s the beginning of an ongoing problem.
Hellebucyk has had amazing durability and doesn’t play dead after getting hit in the crease like most others.
The contractual issues will get addressed, all I hope for from him or any player is a firm commitment to the club.
5 x 7.5 is all I’d want the club to do but it’s understandable if they choose more on both term and money.
CH is refreshingly honest and perhaps he believes the team is putting its best foot forward.
Have we heard anything from his camp lately?

Yeah, you can predict a player's injury potential. It will be a prediction, not something cast in stone.
A history of durability is an indicator of future durability. You can factor in habits of fitness, style of play, etc and come up with a statistically reliable prediction. The one freak play leads to the outliers from statistically reliable predictions. There are no guarantees.

5x7.5 just isn't going to get it done. Neither is any other term x7.5. Hellebuyck has been among the top 3 or 4 players at his critical position for the last 6 years. He's done that while carrying the heaviest work load in the league. That just isn't enough money for a player like that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Buffalo reminds me of us the season Helly started playing full time. The difference though is Helly was 24 at the time and Lind is what 21? I don't know if he is ready and I can't think of a goalie that made a lasting impact on a team at that age

Assume you meant Levi.
Not only is he only 21 but he has only 7 pro games under his belt.
He is a very promising prospect but he is probably at least 2-3 years away.

I don't think the Jets could ever match Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin & Power. 2018 Jets probably had better depth and more experience, plus Helle.

 

[Whileee]

Assume you meant Levi.
Not only is he only 21 but he has only 7 pro games under his belt.
He is a very promising prospect but he is probably at least 2-3 years away.

I don't think the Jets could ever match Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin & Power. 2018 Jets probably had better depth and more experience, plus Helle.

Interesting that both Thompson and Cozens hate substantial deficits defensively, sort of like Scheifele and Connor.

 

[surixon]

Interesting that both Thompson and Cozens hate substantial deficits defensively, sort of like Scheifele and Connor.

View attachment 729404

Yup. But how much of that is due to Buffalo seemingly playing an all out offensive scheme with a very green dcore behind them.

 

[Whileee]

Yup. But how much of that is due to Buffalo seemingly playing an all out offensive scheme with a very green dcore behind them.

Alex Tuch did well defensively in that scheme with that D.

I actually think that Thompson and Cozens aren't great defensively at this point, sort of like Scheifele and Connor have been - very offense-focused.

 

[Buffdog]

Yeah, you can predict a player's injury potential. It will be a prediction, not something cast in stone.
A history of durability is an indicator of future durability. You can factor in habits of fitness, style of play, etc and come up with a statistically reliable prediction. The one freak play leads to the outliers from statistically reliable predictions. There are no guarantees.

5x7.5 just isn't going to get it done. Neither is any other term x7.5. Hellebuyck has been among the top 3 or 4 players at his critical position for the last 6 years. He's done that while carrying the heaviest work load in the league. That just isn't enough money for a player like that.

Teams are finally starting to realize that with 30+ year old players, you're paying them for what they're going to do instead of what they've already done. Legacy contracts have by and in large been a thing of the past

The reality is that we probably got helle's best years on his last contract

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Teams are finally starting to realize that with 30+ year old players, you're paying them for what they're going to do instead of what they've already done. Legacy contracts have by and in large been a thing of the past

The reality is that we probably got helle's best years on his last contract

I don't know that teams have changed the way they sign players. The stagnant cap has had an effect.

We certainly have had some of Helle's best years. Next year could still be his best ever, or the year after that. At some point he is going to start to slide but we really don't know when that will be.

But Helle is just not going to sign for 7.5, IMO. I think 8 is rock bottom and that would need 7-8 year term. Less term will need higher AAV. 7x8 = 56, 6x9 = 54. I think the total value of the contract will need to be in that ballpark.

 

[10Ducky10]

5 x 9.4m?

I think he doesn't re-sign.

 

[DRW204]

imo
and i don't have a qualified opinion on Levi. however, reading how BUF fans and i guess their GM now talk about him reminds me a bit of Helle before being an NHLer. worst thing would've been from our POV was to have traded multiple high-priced trade chips, and a new long-term deal at 10%+ cap-hit for a 30+ year old goalie at the time.

 

[surixon]

imo
and i don't have a qualified opinion on Levi. however, reading how BUF fans and i guess their GM now talk about him reminds me a bit of Helle before being an NHLer. worst thing would've been from our POV was to have traded multiple high-priced trade chips, and a new long-term deal at 10%+ cap-hit for a 30+ year old goalie at the time.

Yeah imo if Helle had 2 years left at his current cap hit he'd be very attractive to them to groom Levi. But I agree giving him a long term big ticket deal doesn't seem smart.

 

[MelikeJets]

Teams are finally starting to realize that with 30+ year old players, you're paying them for what they're going to do instead of what they've already done. Legacy contracts have by and in large been a thing of the past

The reality is that we probably got helle's best years on his last contract

We probably did get his "best" years but I think he will be a solid top 10 for the next 5 years anyway. Not sure what that is worth to teams? I hope he stays with us. Give him $9 or $10 million for 5.

 

[WolfHouse]

We probably did get his "best" years but I think he will be a solid top 10 for the next 5 years anyway. Not sure what that is worth to teams? I hope he stays with us. Give him $9 or $10 million for 5.

I think Buffalo has four more years of control... and goalies are a wildcard - I'd still make that trade if I was Buffalo... see if Helle signs for 6x9m and just be ready to buyout the last year or two

Get 3 years of Helle mentoring Levi... then trade Helle or bridge Levi while he takes over

A consistent vezina level goalie is really worth it - really starting to think the market is Detroit, Philly, Buffalo as opposed to top contenders... especially since Cossa seems to have dropped off the radar in DET

 

[Weezeric]

imo
and i don't have a qualified opinion on Levi. however, reading how BUF fans and i guess their GM now talk about him reminds me a bit of Helle before being an NHLer. worst thing would've been from our POV was to have traded multiple high-priced trade chips, and a new long-term deal at 10%+ cap-hit for a 30+ year old goalie at the time.

When Helle was the age Levi is now, he had played a full season in the AHL. The next year he split time, playing 26 games in the NHL. The following year he played 56 games and struggled with a .907 save percentage. Then he had his breakout in 17-18.

If Levi is the next Hellebuyck. he’s two years away.

Playing a young goalie in the NHL before they’re ready is a good way to ruin a goalie. The Sabres may be willing to risk it.

 

[WolfHouse]

When Helle was the age Levi is now, he had played a full season in the AHL. The next year he split time, playing 26 games in the NHL. The following year he played 56 games and struggled with a .907 save percentage. Then he had his breakout in 17-18.

If Levi is the next Hellebuyck. he’s two years away.

Playing a young goalie in the NHL before they’re ready is a good way to ruin a goalie. The Sabres may be willing to risk it.

What would you offer for a package of Helle and Dillon?

 

[DRW204]

Delete

 

[DRW204]

When Helle was the age Levi is now, he had played a full season in the AHL. The next year he split time, playing 26 games in the NHL. The following year he played 56 games and struggled with a .907 save percentage. Then he had his breakout in 17-18.

If Levi is the next Hellebuyck. he’s two years away.

Playing a young goalie in the NHL before they’re ready is a good way to ruin a goalie. The Sabres may be willing to risk it.

I'm surprised that Buffalo didn't get a better vet / low term back up like how NYI does with Varlamov. Or how dallas did with Oettinger years ago.

But I was not trying to say he's the next Hellebuyck. I was trying to compare it to how we once upon had a goalie that everyone was excited about, and how it'd have looked if we had a acquired and signed a 30+ year old goalie at a high price.

We unfortunately still had Pavelec at the time too and wasn't going anywhere. I think Buffalo views Levi similarly so don't think they'll be making an additional large investment in net.

Even Levi sports somewhere between a. 0.907-0.911 for 40 games, that might be good enough for Buffalo to make the POs (granted their goal scoring holds)

 

[ps241]

Yeah imo if Helle had 2 years left at his current cap hit he'd be very attractive to them to groom Levi. But I agree giving him a long term big ticket deal doesn't seem smart.

The only thing I would say is that I agree Levi is trending like Bucky was.......but.......he is 2 years younger than Connor was when he finally broke in with the Jets. Although he looks like he might turn into a Hellebuyck he hasn't done that yet and it will be a while if ever.

Now it still probably makes more sense for another team but boy could the Sabers use a Vezina level talent now.

 

[Buffdog]

We probably did get his "best" years but I think he will be a solid top 10 for the next 5 years anyway. Not sure what that is worth to teams? I hope he stays with us. Give him $9 or $10 million for 5.

Top teams can't afford to drop 10M on a 30+ year old hoping that he doesn't fall off a cliff like Price and Bobrovsky

I think that if he hits the market next summer, he'll have to decide between chasing a cup for less money (and could involve him moving into a mentorship role in the final years of the deal) vs playing in a desirable market making less money for a non-contender

I think NJD, BUF and LA fall into the former category while a few locations like Detroit (home town), ANA, AZ, etc fall into the latter

Maybe there is still hope that he'll re-sign here (he loves his ice fishing) but I think the Jets would be better off long-term if they were to move on from him

 

[10Ducky10]

What would you offer for a package of Helle and Dillon?

Buffalo has Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson and Stillman on the left side already.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm surprised that Buffalo didn't get a better vet / low term back up like how NYI does with Varlamov. Or how dallas did with Oettinger years ago.

But I was not trying to say he's the next Hellebuyck. I was trying to compare it to how we once upon had a goalie that everyone was excited about, and how it'd have looked if we had a acquired and signed a 30+ year old goalie at a high price.

We unfortunately still had Pavelec at the time too and wasn't going anywhere. I think Buffalo views Levi similarly so don't think they'll be making an additional large investment in net.

Even Levi sports somewhere between a. 0.907-0.911 for 40 games, that might be good enough for Buffalo to make the POs (granted their goal scoring holds)

Honestly, I will be surprised if they throw Levi into the lions den this year. JMO, but I think that would be extremely foolish. He needs a couple of years in the AHL.

Maybe surprised is the wrong word because all appearances are that they intend to do just that. I will be very surprised if they do that and it works.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Top teams can't afford to drop 10M on a 30+ year old hoping that he doesn't fall off a cliff like Price and Bobrovsky

I think that if he hits the market next summer, he'll have to decide between chasing a cup for less money (and could involve him moving into a mentorship role in the final years of the deal) vs playing in a desirable market making less money for a non-contender

I think NJD, BUF and LA fall into the former category while a few locations like Detroit (home town), ANA, AZ, etc fall into the latter

Maybe there is still hope that he'll re-sign here (he loves his ice fishing) but I think the Jets would be better off long-term if they were to move on from him

I think moving on from Helle is only the best option if we get a good return. Otherwise we are much better off keeping him on a reasonable contract.

 

[10Ducky10]

Helle + 2nd? for Swayman and DeBrusk?