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Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v9 | Thu, Aug 24 | @ BAL | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Berrios vs Gibson

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Yankees are absolute trash. One of the best pitching seasons by Cole in recent memory and they won’t even make the playoffs. The contracts they’ve either given out or gotten in trades is brutal!!! Donaldson 25 million this year, Stanton is getting around 30+, LeMahieu has 5 years left on his deal, Rondon just signed a 160 million dollar deal. It’s nuts. They are a terrible team with a gigantic payroll and a bad farm system

Let’s not forget Judge is already 31-32 years old he’s got 8 years left on his deal
 
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MK78 said:
Judge deal is terrible. but he played it perfectly, and had the season for the ages after they tried to lowball him.
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I mean you can't really fault them for locking him up after that season, even if it won't age gracefully (hopefully).
 
Kikuchi has been crazy good in the 2nd half. That's what, 6 straight starts of <2 runs? He has limited the fly balls (no HR!) and getting plenty of swings and misses. I thought he was a bit lucky in the first half and overperformed, but now he's the real deal.

He is making a legitimate case for 2nd best pitcher on the team. I'd actually trust him over the others in a game 2 scenario.
 
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CherryToke said:
When's the last time the Jays had two relievers throwing triple digits? I could see this team KC Royaling their way to the WS if their luck turns around offensively.
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This is so true. I could see it also. Those KC teams played 5 inning games and just let their BP finish it. I remember watching that series and thought we better get runs early and often or it’s lockdown central after that

That great thing about our BP is we have multiple Lefties. It’s not just Mayza and then a bunch of righties, we can use Mayza multiple innings if need be and then Cabrera for a lefty lefty matchup. Lots of diversity in the pen. We have multiple heat throwers, multiple lefties, Swanson and Richard’s nasty change ups. And I didn’t even mention Greene who throws hard also. If this team ever got hot with bats it’s going to be super hard for teams to beat us
 
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CherryToke said:
When's the last time the Jays had two relievers throwing triple digits? I could see this team KC Royaling their way to the WS if their luck turns around offensively.
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The luck they need is to face pitchers that don’t throw hard at the top of the strike zone.
 
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Nineteen67 said:
The luck they need is to face pitchers that don’t throw hard at the top of the strike zone.
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I don't even think they need that. They're a patient team, but almost patient to a fault. Here are their run values on pitches in the heart of the strike zone:

Kirk (-18)
Varsho (-15)
Springer (-13)
Kiermaier (-7)
Espinal (-7)
Bichette (-2)
Luke (-1)
Jansen (0)
Merrifield (0)
Schneider (+1)
Chapman (+1)
Belt (+2)
Vladdy (+7)
Biggio (+8)

Not a single player has a positive swing runs value outside of Davis Schneider (+1). They're great at not chasing, and they're pretty good at hitting/getting on base, but they also don't walk nearly as often as they should. For the amount of pitches they see in the zone, they should be focusing on certain quadrants that pitchers tend to frequent against them. If a pitcher throws hard at the top of the zone frequently, speed up the bat?
 
Eyedea said:
Kirk (-18)
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1692200478921.png
 
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Can someone smarter than me explain wtf has happened to Vladdy. Guy has fallen off a cliff with the bat. I used to be so confident when he was at the plate 2 years ago now I just assume it’s a ground ball to the 2nd baseman
 
stats1 said:
Can someone smarter than me explain wtf has happened to Vladdy. Guy has fallen off a cliff with the bat. I used to be so confident when he was at the plate 2 years ago now I just assume it’s a ground ball to the 2nd baseman
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yo it's weird. Like the dude baseball savant page is the stuff of wet dreams - his launch angle isn't even as bad as it was and yet...... it just aint happening.
 
Eyedea said:
I don't even think they need that. They're a patient team, but almost patient to a fault. Here are their run values on pitches in the heart of the strike zone:

Kirk (-18)
Varsho (-15)
Springer (-13)
Kiermaier (-7)
Espinal (-7)
Bichette (-2)
Luke (-1)
Jansen (0)
Merrifield (0)
Schneider (+1)
Chapman (+1)
Belt (+2)
Vladdy (+7)
Biggio (+8)

Not a single player has a positive swing runs value outside of Davis Schneider (+1). They're great at not chasing, and they're pretty good at hitting/getting on base, but they also don't walk nearly as often as they should. For the amount of pitches they see in the zone, they should be focusing on certain quadrants that pitchers tend to frequent against them. If a pitcher throws hard at the top of the zone frequently, speed up the bat?
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That’s hard to fathom.

As far as speeding up the bat to catch the high strike is easier said than done. I can’t even begin to tell you what they’re doing wrong but that’s a hole in almost every batters swing.
In my eye, Biggio looks like he should be able to hit high pitches because he keeps his posture high, rotates shoulders, but he might be the worst in thr majors at high strike contact.
 
stats1 said:
Can someone smarter than me explain wtf has happened to Vladdy. Guy has fallen off a cliff with the bat. I used to be so confident when he was at the plate 2 years ago now I just assume it’s a ground ball to the 2nd baseman
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Very pronounced home/away splits. He's also still one of the best hitters in high leverage situations (21st in WPA). One issue I can speak on is his centrefield approach. He's not pulling the ball nearly enough and the SS/2B are playing him straight which is causing those liners/groundballs up the middle to turn into auto outs (compared to Springer's groundball single up the middle yesterday).
 
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Nineteen67 said:
That’s hard to fathom.

As far as speeding up the bat to catch the high strike is easier said than done. I can’t even begin to tell you what they’re doing wrong but that’s a hole in almost every batters swing.
In my eye, Biggio looks like he should be able to hit high pitches because he keeps his posture high, rotates shoulders, but he might be the worst in thr majors at high strike contact.
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True, and tbh I wouldn't even say it's just the high fastball. I don't think anyone outside of Merrifield and Bichette have hit 4 seam fastballs well this year.

edit: Kiermaier and Springer as well

But based on the data and eye test, sinkers and sliders have been the major culprit of the team's offensive woes.
 
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Eyedea said:
True, and tbh I wouldn't even say it's just the high fastball. I don't think anyone outside of Merrifield and Bichette have hit 4 seam fastballs well this year.

edit: Kiermaier and Springer as well

But based on the data and eye test, sinkers and sliders have been the major culprit of the team's offensive woes.
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I’m sure there’s a batting average by pitch somewhere and I bet the Jays would be near the bottom of the on the 4 seam which would hand and hand with not hitting the slider.
 
stats1 said:
Can someone smarter than me explain wtf has happened to Vladdy. Guy has fallen off a cliff with the bat. I used to be so confident when he was at the plate 2 years ago now I just assume it’s a ground ball to the 2nd baseman
Click to expand...

He's chasing balls out of the strike zone, his swing % on pitches outside of the strike zone is 20 percentage points higher than league average. It amazes me that the hitting coach has not installed an electric zapper in Vlad's Helmet to buzz him every time he gets swing happy. He looks more like his dad at the plate than he does himself.
 
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Discoverer said:
They hit .272 on fastballs in the upper third of the zone, which is 7th in the league.
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They also have the 2nd lowest zone%, which would suggest they should walk a lot ... 17th in walks... for a team built to play small ball, that is an ugly stat but they get on base as good as anyone, 6th in the league OBP ... I've come to the conclusion that stats mean noting :)

The hardest thing as a hitter is to take close pitches but they as a collective have to get the opposing pitchers to come in the zone more often.
 
Hellcat said:
They also have the 2nd lowest zone%, which would suggest they should walk a lot ... 17th in walks... for a team built to play small ball, that is an ugly stat but they get on base as good as anyone, 6th in the league OBP ... I've come to the conclusion that stats mean noting :)

The hardest thing as a hitter is to take close pitches but they as a collective have to get the opposing pitchers to come in the zone more often.
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Do you mean 2nd highest? Everything I see suggests the Jays see between the 1st and 3rd most pitches in the zone this year. I think that correlates well to their low walk rate and high average, but they're just not cranking on those pitches (at least at home). 3rd in wRC+ on the road vs 20th at home with nearly a 20 point difference in ISO. The dome has become a shitty park to play in for hitters
 
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