Buffalo Bills 2023 Summer - Post-Draft and Pre-Camp Talk

[Jim Bob]

Dreams vs Reality

With the 2023 NFL Draft kicking off this evening, I have been listening to a lot of Bills podcasts this morning. My favorite so far has be...

jbrndmthght.blogspot.com

Here are my pre-draft thoughts all in one place.

 

[Jim Bob]

Thanks for the share. I really appreciate the way he reframed the Gabe discussion. It’s not that he sucks; we’re asking him to do way too much

I am all about adding a short to intermediate receiving threat to the offense. And that could be a Flowers/Downs type WR or a Mayer/Kinkaid/Washington type TE.

And the trying to get back to the 2020 offensive distribution of targets is a great idea.

 

[Jim Bob]

There is no way I am staying up to see the bills trade back into the 2nd round after 3 hours of watching draft footage. I'll catch the replays.

I am an early to bed guy, so there is a 0% chance I am up that late.

If I wake up in the middle of the night to go to the bathroom, there is a 100% chance I will grab my phone to see what they did.

 

[Fezzy126]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Fezzy126]

I think at this stage of his career, Mel like to troll himself.

I tend to think that Kiper is senile these days, but he was one of the only guys that had Elam mocked to us last year.

 

[Husko]

I’m working night court tonight (5pm-1am shift) so let’s all prayer circle for a slow night so I can follow the draft. On the bright side, I’ll definitely be up for the whole round

 

[Old Navy Goat]

That was a great TV show

 

[Sound_n_Fury]

The new S2 Cognition test is interesting to me. The NFL is full of athletes with high RAS scores. But what seems to separate so many of the high performers is their superior mental game / recognition / processing speed.

I hope the Bills don't ignore that aspect and focus too heavily on athletic measureables and projections.

I tend to think that Kiper is senile these days, but he was one of the only guys that had Elam mocked to us last year.

But how many mocks did it take? Mel changes his mocks daily. Sooner or later he's got to get one pick right.

 

[Jim Bob]

The new S2 Cognition test is interesting to me. The NFL is full of athletes with high RAS scores. But what seems to separate so many of the high performers is their superior mental game / recognition / processing speed.

I hope the Bills don't ignore that aspect and focus too heavily on athletic measureables and projections.

There are a variety of analytics to through in the blender. S2, AIQ, RAS, and a host of others that can help add more information into the decision making process.

 

[Husko]

I wish we had all the S2 data. I’m fascinated by it but we don’t have enough samples to use it for anything in our own analysis.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Just listening to PFFs final 2 round mock.

Darnell Wright @ 27 & Trenton Simpson @ 59.

I'd take that all day - just a shame it won't happen.

 

[Jim Bob]

Just listening to PFFs final 2 round mock.

Darnell Wright @ 27 & Trenton Simpson @ 59.

I'd take that all day - just a shame it won't happen.

I love Wright at this point and do not see Simpson as a scheme fit for what the Bills need at MLB.

 

[Jim Bob]

Here is Joe's Bills specific board for the first three rounds and two of his last three pods leading into the draft, including the one where he goes through his Bills draft board.

 

[Jim Bob]

Girls flag football being a HS sport is really cool to me.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Draft Schedule
Round 1: Thursday April 27 at 8:00pm
Rounds 2-3: Friday April 28 at 7:00pm
Rounds 4-7: Saturday April 29 at 12:00pm

Draft Resources
The Beast by Dane Brugler: Best singular draft resource with scouting reports of 401 prospects. Subscription to The Athletic is required, but nothing stopping you from signing up for a free trial, downloading the beast, and unsubscribing. Worth it for this guide alone.

NFL.com Prospect Database: Includes writeups of hundreds of players with strengths, weaknesses, combine data and biographical information. Reports are written by Lance Zierlein, one of the more connected insiders to actual NFL executives, scouts, etc. Does a great job of presenting players the way NFL team see them.

NFL.com Draft Tracker: Can be sorted by round, position, or team.

PFN Mock Draft Simulator: This is the most user-friendly mock draft tool now that PFF's is behind a pay wall. Feel free to post your favorite or your final Bills mock draft!

The Athletic Football Show Draft Coverage: If you'd rather listen to smart analysis of each pick instead of whatever Mel Kiper does on ESPN these days, this is what I recommend. They don't have all the bells and whistles of a huge media production, but they have folks that know what they're talking about getting into the weeds of the picks. This is what I'll be watching. Free on Youtube.

Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart: A more modern, better trade value chart.

Accounts to Follow
Sal Capaccio: As much as I hate giving a platform to WGR, there's no denying he's the most on the ground, in the loop Bills beat reporter in town. He has the best access, no doubt.

Joe Buscaglia: Bills beat reporter for The Athletic. My personal favorite Bills follow. He will likely provide the most in-depth Bills-specific content on the draft.

Dane Brugler and Lance Zierlein: As I mention above, I think these two are by far the best in the business in terms of providing honest analysis on the draft class.

Cover 1: This is probably the best amatuer Bills coverage out there right now. They've got a lot of folks doing different things. Some grind tape far more than any of us could ever have time for. Others are more into synthesizing and extrapolating the analysis of others. They're not professionals, but they're very dedicated to what they do and provide a nice fan-forward perspective.

2023 HF Bills Big Board
1. Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama (50%)
2. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (67%)
3. Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (63%)
4. Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State (50%)
5. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (38%)
6. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (33%)
7. Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (40%)
8. Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas (25%)
8. Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia (25%)
8. Quinten Johnston, WR, TCU (25%)
11. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (33%)
11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama (33%)
13. Darnell Wright, RT, Tennessee (40%)
14. Jordan Addison, WR, USC (44%)
15. TrentON Simpson, LB, Clemson (40%)
16. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson (50%)
17. Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma (43%)
18. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (83%)
19. Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa (67%)
20. Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (57%)
21. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (100%)
22. Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia (29%)
22. Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson (29%)
24. Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee (50%)
25. Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State (33%)
25. O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida (33%)
27. John Schmitz, C, Minnesota (33%)
27. Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan (33%)
29. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State (43%)
30. Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina (50%)
31. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah (40%)

32. Blake Freeland, OT, BYU (33%)
32. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (33%)
34. Steve Avila, G, TCU (50%)
34. Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse (50%)
34. Dawand Jones, OL, Ohio State (50%)
37. Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt (50%)
38. Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa (25%)
38. Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin (25%)
40. Luke Wylper, C, Ohio State (50%)
40. Joe Tipman, C, Wisconsin (50%)
42. Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee (40%)
42. Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa (40%)
42. Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State (40%)
42. Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State (40%)
46. Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland (40%)
47. Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati (50%)
48. Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland (50%)
49. Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida (25%)
50. AT Perry, WR, Wake Forest (0%)

I like Brugler and Zierlein, but this post is my annual shout out to the late Joel Buchsbaum. Joel was the greatest draftnik of all time. No one even comes close today. When Bill Belichick shares his draft board with you the day prior to the draft to get feedback, you're the GOAT.

 

[Jim Bob]

Bills 7 rd. mock draft: GM makes 2 trades, lands DeAndre Hopkins

The NFL Draft begins on Thursday night.

www.newyorkupstate.com

I wouldn't hate it. But, adding 3 void years to DHop's deal...

 

[Dubi Doo]

For the bills pick? They say around 11pm eastern.

But it’s supposed to all start at 8

The good:
We have to wait three hours for our pick.

The bad:
We have to wait three hours for our pick.

Boy, times sure have changed from when I could go to bed at a reasonable hour after the Bills drafted. Not anymore!

 

[ValJamesDuex]

was wgr asked to talk up Zay Flowers all day ? Going since 6 a.m. jeese lol likely not even there.

 

[brian_griffin]

Thanks for the share. I really appreciate the way he reframed the Gabe discussion. It’s not that he sucks; we’re asking him to do way too much

Both can be true. He had an injury and hasn't been fully the same since returning. Whether or not he will, or should/could, return to that level of play is a different question. In parallel, the Bills may ask too much of him, for whatever reasons (bad coaching, inability of depth WRs to step up in their roles, lack of better talent for the role they want Gabe to play, etc.)

I’m working night court tonight (5pm-1am shift) so let’s all prayer circle for a slow night so I can follow the draft. On the bright side, I’ll definitely be up for the whole round

Many thanks from me and all of us for the time, effort, and consistency you put in during March and April to get us to this point. Wouldn't have been half as good without your dedication.

That was a great TV show

And that's no Bull!

I wish we had all the S2 data. I’m fascinated by it but we don’t have enough samples to use it for anything in our own analysis.

Agreed. Any tests which measure general intelligence or fluid intelligence reasonably well would suffice. Higher scorers are faster learners. Doesn't mean they will do a "job" / skill better, just that they will learn it faster. In general, given reasonably equivalent abilities, faster learners would be preferred in any profession.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

NFL has apparently cracked down on draft leaks with the repercussions on betting

BTW, you cannot prop bet on the draft in nys

And the NFL is tracking data from inside team facilities apparently! (Lions for ie)

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I love Wright at this point and do not see Simpson as a scheme fit for what the Bills need at MLB.

As a 'positionless' player - i really don't see how he couldn't be a scheme fit for anyone.

For the Bills I'd see him used at:

- Pass rusher, most likely in the 'Alexander' role

- MLB, traditionally occupied by Edmunds. He's certainly not plug/play but brings many skills to the table where he'd be effective

- OLB, typically occupied by Milano - who could possibly move around himself

- 'Big nickel' or slot. For this you would likely see safeties/Johnson moved around. We've talked about adding this type of player in JOK Or more recently speculated that a 3rd safety could be added to the field with Poyer/Hyde/Rapp

It would certainly be a shift in terms of we've never seen a player like this play for McDermott. But he's absolutely a scheme fit if you think outside the box.

And for those of you who want less focus on D in favour of more focus on O... Then you should probably be supportive of adding Simpson. Because having a guy like him capable of moving around, should lead to having less big money defensive players for specific roles.

 

[Ace]

Or they could support adding….you know…offense.

McDermott has plenty of big ticket and high asset investments on D. Figure it out. That’s what you’re supposed to be good at. God know it isn’t having balls once the playoffs start.

Meanwhile our OC is trash and Josh needs all the help he can get. Keep investing everything in D so Mahomes and Burrow can hang 38 on you when the games matter anyway…and ask Allen to bail you out of everything with one aging receiver worth a damn. Worked out great so far!

 

[Husko]

Many thanks from me and all of us for the time, effort, and consistency you put in during March and April to get us to this point. Wouldn't have been half as good without your dedication.

Thanks for the kind words! I'm just glad to have an outlet for one of my nerdiest hobbies!