2023 NHL Draft: Russian Prospects

[Fantomas]

Picked up a copy of The Hockey News Draft Guide today and laughed out loud when I saw that their projected "best case scenario" for Michkov is Cole Caufield.

The writeup of Simashev just made him sound like a bad player who can barely complete passes, even though he wasn't ranked low.

The entire thing is sloppy work, but the coverage of Russian players is especially bad.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Picked up a copy of The Hockey News Draft Guide today and laughed out loud when I saw that their projected "best case scenario" for Michkov is Cole Caufield.

The writeup of Simashev just made him sound like a bad player who can barely complete passes, even though he wasn't ranked low.

The entire thing is sloppy work, but the coverage of Russian players is especially bad.

What did they say about But?

 

[Fantomas]

What did they say about But?

Very lite on fact and detail. They quote two (alleged) scouts on him, one who likes his hockey sense and the other one who's unsure.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Picked up a copy of The Hockey News Draft Guide today and laughed out loud when I saw that their projected "best case scenario" for Michkov is Cole Caufield.

The writeup of Simashev just made him sound like a bad player who can barely complete passes, even though he wasn't ranked low.

The entire thing is sloppy work, but the coverage of Russian players is especially bad.

There has been an undercurrent of hatred for Russian hockey players for basically ever, but mostly in effect once Russians started coming to the NHL and they all got labeled "enigmatic" unless proven otherwise (and even if once not enigmatic, they were likely to eventually be labeled enigmatic if their game were to fall off). Even someone as consistent as Ovechkin that has been unanimously been praised by his teammates and coaches for his character on and off the ice has been plagued by a lot of nonsense any time he had a stretch of a couple of bad games.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has just removed the lid on it all together and nobody even gives any pretense about it anymore.

 

[57special]

There are plenty of other threads where people can and do whine about Russian prospects not getting enough respect. How about we just talk about the prospects, and all the fine work that @Caser has done, rather than revive those tired arguments? I come to these boards to get away from politics, myself.

The issue isn't that it is weak, the issue is that it is weak as usual.

Why do think that is?

 

[Caser]

There are plenty of other threads where people can and do whine about Russian prospects not getting enough respect. How about we just talk about the prospects, and all the fine work that @Caser has done, rather than revive those tired arguments? I come to these boards to get away from politics, myself.


Why do think that is?

While I totally want to avoid the political discussions I must admit that the recent events have in general kind of coincidentally strengthened the skepticism over the Russian players (even though everyone are stating that the nationality isn't any factor for them). I totally agree that it isn't any reason to whine though, as I'd suggest to remember that just nine years ago the Russian factor was much stronger than that without any political reasons. So I think we just can assume there is some Russian factor 2.0, but that's what we have to live with, so oh welp.

As for the lack of centers, I think it is because of historical reasons, if you look at the Soviet era, it didn't produce much dominating centers before Fyodorov and Yashin, best were Petrov and Larionov - elite guys, but not wow comparing to the wingers and not exactly that much for a timeframe of couple of decades. This comes from a Soviet concept that the wingers are the attack drivers and centers are more of the guys that provide support both for the attack and defense. Therefore in hockey schools the guys with the best skating and shot would be put to wings and the C guys would be the defensively-responsible playmakers (without much fancy stuff). Hockey school system is a conservative one, so that approach is in some way inherited to this day, as the coaches there are still a bit old-school.

 

[Caser]

Always like the threads from regional guys. That said, surprised that player 10 and player 30 aren't in swapped positions.

Your example is perfectly reflecting why I always warn to take my opinions with a grain of salt, since those are like just my opinions. So here it is even more like a matter of taste: Ishimnikov with his undoubtedly great athleticism in my eyes has a doubtful hockey IQ, so in that way he reminds me too much of the Lightning legend Dmitry Semykin. With Chalyi it probably has affected that I've seen him this season much less than the Russian-based guys, so still a lot of positive impressions from the last seasons have impacted that high rank.

 

[Fantomas]

There has been an undercurrent of hatred for Russian hockey players for basically ever, but mostly in effect once Russians started coming to the NHL and they all got labeled "enigmatic" unless proven otherwise (and even if once not enigmatic, they were likely to eventually be labeled enigmatic if their game were to fall off). Even someone as consistent as Ovechkin that has been unanimously been praised by his teammates and coaches for his character on and off the ice has been plagued by a lot of nonsense any time he had a stretch of a couple of bad games.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has just removed the lid on it all together and nobody even gives any pretense about it anymore.

I don't want to throw this thread off-track, but I'll just say that THN's publsher is a pretty rabid anti-Russian nutcase.

Anyway, time is better spent reading Caser's list and insights than reading THN.

 

[Caser]

I don't want to throw this thread off-track, but I'll just say that THN's publsher is a pretty rabid anti-Russian nutcase.

Anyway, time is better spent reading Caser's list and insights than reading THN.

Thanks, however you probably noticed that I'm not too high on Simashev's skill too and that is including the passing skill, yes. As for Michkov I prefer a more traditional Kucherov comparison though.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Thanks, however you probably noticed that I'm not too high on Simashev's skill too and that is including the passing skill, yes. As for Michkov I prefer a more traditional Kucherov comparison though.

Interesting take on Simashev -- any thoughts on D-But from where you stand?

 

[Caser]

Interesting take on Simashev -- any thoughts on D-But from where you stand?

I wrote my overall thoughts in the OP, but probably you mean something more specific?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I wrote my overall thoughts in the OP, but probably you mean something more specific?

Sorry, didn't realize you were the OP

 

[hockey maniac]

It is time for the annual draft-eligible Russian prospects write-up (it is 10th annual write-up for me actually, so kind of a milestone), so let’s get right down to business. Some observations first though:​

• Prospect pool depth is definitely there this year even though I went with more or less usual 60 names, however I went with a rather strict approach and cut a lot of interesting prospects from the list whenever I had thoughts that they don’t seem to be convincing enough to me. A lot of interesting overagers too, which is not surprising as in the recent years a lot of talented prospects have been left undrafted.​

• In terms of the talent characteristics, if we take Michkov’s phenomenon out of the equation, I’d say it is a year of a great amount of raw talent, as a lot of guys there have the athleticism, skating and skill yet are kind of risky as frequently you just don’t see these tools put in a proper toolbox at this point.​

• Looks like Russian leagues in general have made a notable shift towards a more defensive-minded and systematic approach. That makes it harder for the forwards to really show what they can do, so my list is also reflecting that, it is particularly noticeable with the amount of goalies, as there are really a lot of guys who have showed this year that they are capable of something good.​

• It probably will be impossible to predict how many Russians will be drafted and where, as it is likely that a notable amount of teams won’t be drafting them at all. Still to give an idea how approximately I had it in my head in terms of the draft stock:​

​

1-3 — 1st round candidates​

4-7 — Top70 guys​

8-11 — Top100​

12-19 — Top160​

20-26 — good value for the last two rounds​

27-40 — possible value for the last two rounds​

41-60 — HMs​

• Not exactly relevant to the list, but during this season I noticed unusually large number of Belarussian talent: guys like Karpovich, Volochko, Moroz etc. in Russian leagues, some interesting guys in NA and Belarus leagues — if some Belarus hockey fan is thinking of making a similar list it might be a great year to start.​

• Last, but not least, as usual comments and discussion are more than welcome, but if you’re going closer to the political topics, please make sure to double check that hockey is still prevailing over politics in what you are writing. Thank You!​

1. RW Matvei Michkov
Not even sure what I can write about such a well-known talent that Michkov is, maybe just a summary of pros and cons. His biggest strengths are the unique hockey sense and creativity, he obviously has an elite skill, is a goalscoring expert and I’d say due to all of his goals he also is an underrated playmaker. Less impressive is the skating, as it is not slow and he is very agile, but still it is far from great, also size is obviously not remarkable (yet I don’t see any issues here, as I expect him to become stronger) and he isn’t really your guy if you prefer two-way forwards. Another issue is with his character: while he is extra competitive apparently it has side-effects, as it was reported that frequently he was seen being pretty harsh towards the teammates and not everyone would like that. It might be a bit of a mean side, but I don’t think it is that much unusual for a player to be like that, not to mention that to be successful in the KHL for his next three contract seasons (yes, it should be expected that he fulfills those) he will have to apply some anger management whether he likes it or not.


2. LHD Mikhail Gulyayev
Gulyaev impresses with his effortless skating and attacking skills, that’s something that clearly shows that he got the potential to become a high-end puckmoving and puck-carrying defenseman. Pretty smart and creative, he still needs to be more reliable on his own end, but it doesn’t seem to be too worrisome. Size is the issue here though and it is not something that can be fixed much.


3. LW Daniil But
More than enough size in Danill But (just in case it is pronounced more like “Boot”) and he moves that size really well. Got a Malkinesque frame that he will need to still fill out, also extremely impressive reach and stickhandling combination and a precise right-handed shot. Works hard, yet I’m not sure his decision making is at the level that I would like it to be, so some maturing is required.


4. LHD Dmitry Simashev
Simashev possesses a high-end size and skating combination, processes the game well at both sides of the ice, also I actually like his shot. Might be not clear why I have him just outside of the first round then, but the reason is that I doubt the level of his skill, as it seems to me that it might be insufficient for a potential puckmover and if his potential is a good D yet mostly a stay-at-home one then it lowers the draft stock, as in that case I see the best case scenario for Simashev in turning into someone like Gavrikov.


5. LW Alexander Rykov
Rykov (just in case it is pronounced more like “Reekov”) might be my favorite prospect this year, he isn’t ranked too high usually because he is not the most athletic guy out there, but his game is based on the smarts and is very well rounded in all components — he needs to become stronger, maybe a bit better at the defensive side of things, but that’s pretty much everything I can think of.


6. RW Roman Kantserov
Kantserov has been an extremely consistent goalscorer during the last two years in the MHL, skillset and skating are there too and despite the modest size I’d say he is very stocky built. I have questions though, particularly about whether all that will translate to the pro hockey, as well as I’d say adding a two-way component to his game would be very useful, but it’s hard to deny the right kind of fancy attacking skill is there to consider him as a legit top prospect.


7. RW Yegor Rimashevskiy
A bit of similar case to But here: Rimashevskiy has a great frame, mobility, skillset, goalscoring abilities – all the nice attacking zone stuff, but to me all that looks quite raw, a lot of work should be invested in polishing that, making the game more mature and improving effectiveness not only in the attacking zone.


8. W Aydar Suniyev
I must admit I didn’t watch Suniyev much outside the highlights, but so far I had an impression of him being a prolific goalscorer with relentless motor, yet a good but not great skating.


9. W Timur Mukhanov
Over years I’ve become less skeptical about skaters’ size, but with Mukhanov you have to admit it: he is notably on the smaller side and is a one-way forward at this point. With that being said he is mobile, not weak, has an excellent shot and is able to pose threat from everywhere in the offensive zone.


10. RHD Gennady Chalyi
I was a fan of Chalyi’s abilities in terms of puck skills, creativity and skating last season, but looks like something didn’t really click for him in the USHL this year. However I still think there is enough talent for him to be considered a solid draft pick candidate, still he might fall like Kirill Kudryavtsev did last year.


11. RHD Yaroslav Tsulygin
First overager on the list is Tsulygin, who really made a tremendous progress in form of a nice toolbox for the tools he was showcasing last season. He was given an opportunity to prove himself on the KHL level and even though he wasn’t too consistent and had some up-and-downs, when he was at his game at I’d say everything in him looked legit both at defense and offense and that’s quite an achievement for someone just 18.


12. RW Yegor Klimovich
I totally like Yegor Klimovich’s hands, I think his skill and shot are pretty close to Michkov’s level, however I can’t really decide if I like anything else: he is small, not exactly a speedster, is creative, but doesn’t provide an impression of a great hockey sense. Yet in my eyes even that skillset alone is totally worth it.


13. RHD Bogdan Konyushkov
Konyushkov is in his last year of draft eligibility and has just debuted in the KHL this season, but has been simply sensational there, as his cerebral game in every zone has made him one of Torpedo team’s leaders right away. Not much there in terms of strength and athleticism though, yet decent puck skills and mobility.


14. RW Nikita Susuyev
Yet another case of a raw yet naturally gifted attacking minded player here in Susuyev, he can skate, has good motor and athleticism, is able to make good things with the puck including getting it into the net. Pretty usual potential improvement list for that type of players too: adding consistency, maturity, two-way component all would be really good.


15. GK Yegor Zavragin
A top goalie talent of the age group Zavragin, aside from the rather usual for the top talents size and mobility combination, has also a decently refined technique and is a good puck handler. While this season can’t be called a bad one, to me he had a bit too many of subpar games, which makes me worry if everything is fine with the confidence and psychological plane as such, however if it can be fixed we might be talking about a talent of Ilya Samsonov level and type.


16. LHD Ivan Remezovskiy
Remezovskiy is a strong, mobile and reliable defenseman with good passing skill and not bad with the puck overall, yet at this point he looks like just being a solid stay-at-home type of guy.


17. LHD Artyom Kudashov
It is hard for me to understand how Kudashov, while having excellent puck skills and being a solid skater, wasn’t able to gather more points in the MHL. However he was looking impressive at the neutral zone puck carrying duties and overall solid at his own end, so I think points shouldn’t be much of an issue, at least less than the modest size.


18. W German Tochilkin
With the amount of flashy skill, skating and solid athleticism it is unclear to me how Tochilkin went undrafted last year, even though I must admit that his 200ft game certainly needs improvements.


19. C Nikita Nedopyokin
Despite not being overly big, Nedopyokin has solid strength to add to his hard working and overall smart game. Decent skater, but I think there is some deficiency in the attacking skills department, which might hold him back.


20. RHD Maxim Fedotov
Fedotov is a small, but electrifying offensive-minded defenseman with an excellent shot, but to me it just seems that his decision making is frequently kind of a bit random or something.


21. GK Ilya Kanarskiy
Kanarskiy is a lanky and extra mobile goalie with some polishing still to do in terms of technique. Still he was very consistent at stopping the puck for a rather weak MHL team, that was impressive enough to me.


22. C/W Yegor Vinogradov
Very solid season in the bottom-six utility role in the KHL for Vinogradov, as he got a good frame, motor and hands to be effective at it. Shown some flashes of the offensive potential in the MHL, but it is still questionable in terms of if it is translatable to a higher level.


23. LHD Artyom Karpov
A very meat-and-potatos type of guy, Karpov is big, pretty mobile, solid at his own end and got a good passing skill, but basically that’s that.


24. RHD Sergei Kosovets
6’5”, not a pylon, looks solid in terms of the hockey sense and also right-handed — I’d say there are reasons to think that Kosovets might have some potential there.


25. GK Alexei Noskov
I certainly have a soft spot for goalies, who carry a weak team on their shoulders and that is exactly the case with Noskov. Good size, a bit raw in terms of technique, but very competitive stopping a huge amount of shots game in and game out.


26. C Artyom Kashtanov
Kashtanov is 6’6” and has very quick hands, so the draft chances are obvious, but I’d say in order to succeed he needs to improve his mobility and two-way component.


27. W Stanislav Yarovoi
Hands are Yarovoi’s best asset, both because of great stickhandling and goalscoring talents, also he is a smooth skater, but I kind of didn’t have an impression that he is still good enough when the game becomes more intense and physical.


28. C/W Daniil Davydov
Might be not the most generously athletically gifted, Davydov compensates it with good skill, creativity, mobility and hard work, would be good to improve things at the defensive game though.


29. GK Nikita Podlyagin
Podlyagin is another case of being a weak team’s goalie, so the stats are mediocre at best, but I think he has done well both in the MHL and in some VHL games he played. Good size (officially at 6’3”, but some sources have him at 6’5”), mobility, reflexes and overall consistency, yet still some polishing needs to be done like in every area.


30. RHD Nikita Ishimnikov
Ishimnikov has a great size and mobility combination, is very confident with the puck, has a powerful shot — in terms of the draft stock everything looks great, but I must admit I have doubts that there is enough hockey sense.


31. LHD Yaroslav Busygin
I see a very athletic player here in Busygin, as he is strong, can skate, has the right kind of puck skills and shot, yet I don’t think I’m satisfied with what I see in terms of defensive awareness.


32. RW/C Matvei Maximov
If we look just in terms of the skillset and shooting ability Maximov could be considered as a high-end talent, but I’m not a fan of his skating especially considering not exactly the biggest size.


33. C Nikita Telegin
Telegin was considered among the top talents of his age group just last year, as he can skate, got good skills and a promising frame, but he missed a lot of time with an injury and something clearly didn’t click for him when he came back.


34. RW Nikolai Khvorov
Khvorov is a smart and skilled playmaking winger with a promising-looking frame. Not so impressive at the skating and shot departments, improvements at the 200ft game should also be made.


35. C/W Dmitry Katelevskiy
I am a big fan of Katelevskiy, as he is a really hard worker with good motor, but he has certain deficiencies in terms of the skill. Looked solid at the first half of the season in the KHL, yet missed the second half, so probably not this year in terms of the draft chances.


36. GK Ruslan Khazheyev
It might be that I just failed to understand Khazheyev as a prospect, but even though I acknowledge his great size and impressive reflexes I still had an impression of him as of a rather raw and inconsistent goalie.


37. LHD Yegor Savikov
Savikov is a very mobile D, has great shot and can carry the puck, but is undersized and quite underwhelming at the own end.


38. W Valentin Zhugin
Electrifying talent, yet something clearly doesn’t work for Zhugin in the OHL and I can’t really understand what exactly is the issue, as even though the size is modest he got the wheels and offensive skill.


39. C Ilya Ivantsov
With Ivantsov the question was always his skating, as while his size is rather mediocre, mobility didn’t really compensate that, however I’m not fully convinced that the issue is fixed at this point. Still he is a very skilled playmaking center, can’t take that away from him.


40. C Ivan Yanchenko
Yanchenko is a smart and hard-working center, competent at both ends of the ice, but his skillset level is something I’m not entirely sure about.



Honorable mentions
And some HMs – a group of guys that I think are worth mentioning, yet who didn’t motivate me enough to write something specific about them at least for now.

41. C/LW Ilya Rogovskiy
42. GK Evgeny Volokhin
43. W Semyon Sinyatkin
44. GK Denis Utenkov
45. C/W Ruslan Gazizov
46. GK Ilya Nabokov
47. W/C Mikhail Ilyin
48. LHD Mario Patalakha
49. С Raul Yakupov
50. RHD Vladislav Sapunov
51. GK Artemy Pleshkov
52. C/W Alexander Volkov
53. LW/C Mikhail Goryunov-Rolgizer
54. RW Radel Zamaltdinov
55. GK Maxim Arefyev
56. LHD Magomed Sharakanov
57. GK Dmitry Gamzin
58. C Danil Aimurzin
59. LHD Fyodor Kroshchinskiy
60. LHD Valery Sitnikov​

Great! But why i have not seen Atanasov in this list? He has decent debut in KHL and was leader in MHL champion this year. And he doesn't deserve to be HM at least?

 

[Caser]

Great! But why i have not seen Atanasov in this list? He has decent debut in KHL and was leader in MHL champion this year. And he doesn't deserve to be HM at least?

I'll start with copypasting my excuse: "I went with a rather strict approach and cut a lot of interesting prospects from the list whenever I had thoughts that they don’t seem to be convincing enough to me".

In my eyes this season Atanasov was kind of "chaotic good" with a bit too much of the chaotic stuff. Had good streaks offensively, was in general underwhelming at his own end, still has size/strength issues, also missed a solid part of the season with an injury (not his fault, obviously, but it is leaving some questions about how it would be if he was there full season). Still the main issue for me was that chaotic part: for example when watching Torpedo I kind of knew what to expect from Vinogradov, but not really what to expect from him.

 

[LetsGoFlyers12]

I'll start with copypasting my excuse: "I went with a rather strict approach and cut a lot of interesting prospects from the list whenever I had thoughts that they don’t seem to be convincing enough to me".

In my eyes this season Atanasov was kind of "chaotic good" with a bit too much of the chaotic stuff. Had good streaks offensively, was in general underwhelming at his own end, still has size/strength issues, also missed a solid part of the season with an injury (not his fault, obviously, but it is leaving some questions about how it would be if he was there full season). Still the main issue for me was that chaotic part: for example when watching Torpedo I kind of knew what to expect from Vinogradov, but not really what to expect from him.

Totally off base question, but who do you prefer as a prospect: Michkov or 2024 Ivan Demidov?

Seems to me like Michkov has always been ahead in production, but Demidov has some very interesting skills as well. Thoughts?

 

[Caser]

Totally off base question, but who do you prefer as a prospect: Michkov or 2024 Ivan Demidov?

Seems to me like Michkov has always been ahead in production, but Demidov has some very interesting skills as well. Thoughts?

Very close, but for me it is Michkov here, because if everything with him will properly pan out and he approximately reaches his projected upside, a player with his way of understanding and processing the game will be just a treat to watch. Demidov is a great prospect too and might actually be a safer bet, but I'd still prefer Michkov here.

 

[Hanji]

Props to Caser. Great write-up, once again.

Looking ahead to next year's crop, where would Chernyshov and Surin fit into these rankings? Would you consider these guys in the same tier as Daniil But?

 

[jcbio11]

While I totally want to avoid the political discussions I must admit that the recent events have in general kind of coincidentally strengthened the skepticism over the Russian players (even though everyone are stating that the nationality isn't any factor for them). I totally agree that it isn't any reason to whine though, as I'd suggest to remember that just nine years ago the Russian factor was much stronger than that without any political reasons. So I think we just can assume there is some Russian factor 2.0, but that's what we have to live with, so oh welp.

As for the lack of centers, I think it is because of historical reasons, if you look at the Soviet era, it didn't produce much dominating centers before Fyodorov and Yashin, best were Petrov and Larionov - elite guys, but not wow comparing to the wingers and not exactly that much for a timeframe of couple of decades. This comes from a Soviet concept that the wingers are the attack drivers and centers are more of the guys that provide support both for the attack and defense. Therefore in hockey schools the guys with the best skating and shot would be put to wings and the C guys would be the defensively-responsible playmakers (without much fancy stuff). Hockey school system is a conservative one, so that approach is in some way inherited to this day, as the coaches there are still a bit old-school.

Nationality might not be a factor, but geopolitics are a fact of life and absolutely have an effect on the russian players draft stock. The players simply need to come over and the probability of that is simply lower than a draft pick from other countries.

Russia itself has invented a bunch of newspeak for it (SMO), but the country is in a state of war with emergency regime in many regions. It's in a highly volatile state with competing factions of mercenaries and the official army at each other's neck.

Not to mention Russia has an official list of enemies of which the two NHL countries are a part of. In such an environment, you never know whether the russian players drafted actually make it overseas as the regime might not look too kindly on them leaving the motherland in a crisis. Just look at the hateful propaganda accusing the war refugees fleeing Russia as 'not real men'.

Ivan Fedotov is a perfect example of the current state of things in Russia. Signed with an NHL team and was immediately sent to the army to the Arctic as punishment. I just hope he isn't marched over the borders to Ukraine with the other mobilized russians.

 

[Caser]

Nationality might not be a factor, but geopolitics are a fact of life and absolutely have an effect on the russian players draft stock. The players simply need to come over and the probability of that is simply lower than a draft pick from other countries.

Russia itself has invented a bunch of newspeak for it (SMO), but the country is in a state of war with emergency regime in many regions. It's in a highly volatile state with competing factions of mercenaries and the official army at each other's neck.

Not to mention Russia has an official list of enemies of which the two NHL countries are a part of. In such an environment, you never know whether the russian players drafted actually make it overseas as the regime might not look too kindly on them leaving the motherland in a crisis. Just look at the hateful propaganda accusing the war refugees fleeing Russia as 'not real men'.

Ivan Fedotov is a perfect example of the current state of things in Russia. Signed with an NHL team and was immediately sent to the army to the Arctic as punishment. I just hope he isn't marched over the borders to Ukraine with the other mobilized russians.

I'd like to remind that in the OP there is a warning about making hockey prevailing over politics in what you post and here it is getting a bit borderline, but ok.

So to extract the hockey stuff from all that:

If you noticed I was writing not about the nationality/geopolitics affecting the draft stock itself (indeed it is very likely that some teams won't draft Russians), but about a lot of guys out there who state that in their rankings it didn't have any effect, yet somehow it makes me doubt, but maybe that's just me. I mean, iirc Bob McKenzie clearly stated in his rankings that Michkov's position is affected by his contract, so I think it is the right approach.

About the "volatile state", as I like to say it depends on your crystal ball's model and firmware version. Anyway so far the hockey system isn't affected too much, so that's what matters in the context of the draft.

As for players coming over for every Fedotov there are a dozen of players who sign every year. Even more after that situation every player knows that he should be considered as a student to get out of that kind of trouble, so I don't see that situation repeating. Fedotov was playing hockey earlier today in St.Petersburg btw, so he wasn't sent too far from that region.

 

[Hanji]

Nationality might not be a factor, but geopolitics are a fact of life and absolutely have an effect on the russian players draft stock. The players simply need to come over and the probability of that is simply lower than a draft pick from other countries.

Russia itself has invented a bunch of newspeak for it (SMO), but the country is in a state of war with emergency regime in many regions. It's in a highly volatile state with competing factions of mercenaries and the official army at each other's neck.

Not to mention Russia has an official list of enemies of which the two NHL countries are a part of. In such an environment, you never know whether the russian players drafted actually make it overseas as the regime might not look too kindly on them leaving the motherland in a crisis. Just look at the hateful propaganda accusing the war refugees fleeing Russia as 'not real men'.

Ivan Fedotov is a perfect example of the current state of things in Russia. Signed with an NHL team and was immediately sent to the army to the Arctic as punishment. I just hope he isn't marched over the borders to Ukraine with the other mobilized russians.

The NHL isn't exactly helping to rid itself of the Russian factor either. This signifies the league has its own bias.
This is the second year Russians (sans those in the CHL) will be probiited from attending the NHL combine. This makes it exponentially more difficult for teams to interview and physically test players.
These same players however will be welcomed with open arms to the draft.

 

[Caser]

Props to Caser. Great write-up, once again.

Looking ahead to next year's crop, where would Chernyshov and Surin fit into these rankings? Would you consider these guys in the same tier as Daniil But?

I see them both as a first rounders, probably would say I'd take Chernyshov over But, need to analyze Surin more to decide about him though.

 

[jcbio11]

I'd like to remind that in the OP there is a warning about making hockey prevailing over politics in what you post and here it is getting a bit borderline, but ok.

So to extract the hockey stuff from all that:

If you noticed I was writing not about the nationality/geopolitics affecting the draft stock itself (indeed it is very likely that some teams won't draft Russians), but about a lot of guys out there who state that in their rankings it didn't have any effect, yet somehow it makes me doubt, but maybe that's just me. I mean, iirc Bob McKenzie clearly stated in his rankings that Michkov's position is affected by his contract, so I think it is the right approach.

About the "volatile state", as I like to say it depends on your crystal ball's model and firmware version. Anyway so far the hockey system isn't affected too much, so that's what matters in the context of the draft.

As for players coming over for every Fedotov there are a dozen of players who sign every year. Even more after that situation every player knows that he should be considered as a student to get out of that kind of trouble, so I don't see that situation repeating. Fedotov was playing hockey earlier today in St.Petersburg btw, so he wasn't sent too far from that region.

Fair enough, I'll comment on the hockey stuff in your post.

The hockey system has been affected greatly. I mean Russia has been booted out of international hockey and it's not coming back soon. So no WJC, no WCH, which means less of an opportunity to showcase for russian prospects. And of course Fedotov could have been an NHL goalie and is instead in the army. And he's not some rando goalie, he led Russia to their last hockey medal before the invasion of Ukraine (silver at the OG ). So they went after their best goalie outside of NHL.

I don't find the location of Fedotov's assignment too relevant. He wanted to play in the NHL and was stopped from doing so. The laws are just a tool in Russia, if they wanted to let him go, they would have. But they wanted to get him, so they got him for something.

 

[Caser]

Fair enough, I'll comment on the hockey stuff in your post.

The hockey system has been affected greatly. I mean Russia has been booted out of international hockey and it's not coming back soon. So no WJC, no WCH, which means less of an opportunity to showcase for russian prospects. And of course Fedotov could have been an NHL goalie and is instead in the army. And he's not some rando goalie, he led Russia to their last hockey medal before the invasion of Ukraine (silver at the OG ). So they went after their best goalie outside of NHL.

I don't find the location of Fedotov's assignment too relevant. He wanted to play in the NHL and was stopped from doing so. The laws are just a tool in Russia, if they wanted to let him go, they would have. But they wanted to get him, so they got him for something.

About Fedotov you were clearly worried about his whereabouts in your post, so I wrote about the location. The thing is that they wouldn't get him if he would have the student's status and that what I expect every prospect on my list to have, so this issue shouldn't be relevant for these guys.

About the system, sorry, I should've specified that I meant the KHL/VHL/MHL system, the National Team system has indeed been affected greatly, however I don't think that it is that important for a player developing into a NHL player (useful though, but certainly not critical), as most of the development process happens in their KHL systems.

 

[Zine]

Nationality might not be a factor, but geopolitics are a fact of life and absolutely have an effect on the russian players draft stock. The players simply need to come over and the probability of that is simply lower than a draft pick from other countries.

Russia itself has invented a bunch of newspeak for it (SMO), but the country is in a state of war with emergency regime in many regions. It's in a highly volatile state with competing factions of mercenaries and the official army at each other's neck.

Not to mention Russia has an official list of enemies of which the two NHL countries are a part of. In such an environment, you never know whether the russian players drafted actually make it overseas as the regime might not look too kindly on them leaving the motherland in a crisis. Just look at the hateful propaganda accusing the war refugees fleeing Russia as 'not real men'.

Ivan Fedotov is a perfect example of the current state of things in Russia. Signed with an NHL team and was immediately sent to the army to the Arctic as punishment. I just hope he isn't marched over the borders to Ukraine with the other mobilized russians.

I can't blame teams if they are tentative towards drafting Russians. Today’s world is unpredictable. It is a legitimate concern.
But the Russian Factor is also intentionally magnified because many view it as a means of punishing Russia. The media is full sensationalism, misrepresentation and exaggeration.
Your post about Fedotov is a good representation of this sentiment.

Hopefully NHL GM's are grounded in reality as to make sound decisions instead of succumbing to hysterics and falsehoods.

 

[jcbio11]

About Fedotov you were clearly worried about his whereabouts in your post, so I wrote about the location. The thing is that they wouldn't get him if he would have the student's status and that what I expect every prospect on my list to have, so this issue shouldn't be relevant for these guys.

About the system, sorry, I should've specified that I meant the KHL/VHL/MHL system, the National Team system has indeed been affected greatly, however I don't think that it is that important for a player developing into a NHL player (useful though, but certainly not critical), as most of the development process happens in their KHL systems.

Be honest with me, do you really believe Fedotov's case was about a technicality? That they wouldn't find some other law to get him? Russian laws are incredibly vague just so that the regime can use them for repressions. Loyalty over law.

He signed with an NHL team so they went after him. You assume all the prospects on your list have all the technical issues with the army draft or mobilization taken care of, but you don't know that. It's only logical NHL teams take this kind of risk into consideration and no, NHL isn't russophobic because of this.

Other risks exist in Russia too, if any of the prospects so much as peep something which isn't in line with the regime's politics, they'll go after them for 'discrediting the army', another vague law which is applied only to dissenters.