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2023 Draft Discussion

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GoBoltz56 said:
His stock and stats seem to be sinking like a stone.
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Obviously not too much considering he came in at #13 on a list put out today by McKenzie.

He also has 9 pts in his last 5 games.
 
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Again, I think it will be great to see who can step up during this top prospects game on Wed night, see how they look against the best of their peers. If Ritchie can stand out there, and if he can have a good u18 tourney after putting things together to wrap up the season, Id have no issue with taking him. I would think he would be a lock for that u18 team since his club team wont be in the postseason.
 
OgeeOgelthorpe said:
I'm cautious about picking kids that are sinking in their draft years.

I would love to see an analysis of players NHL performance versus how much they rose/sunk in draft rankings to see if fallers are more often good value, or if they are players to stay away from.
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You always ask about this and nobody delivers. I will take up this task. I've got time to kill, give me a couple weeks Ogee!
 
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NickH8 said:
You always ask about this and nobody delivers. I will take up this task. I've got time to kill, give me a couple weeks Ogee!
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I’ll try to help where I can but work is about to send me back to Alaska. Yay.

I think 2012 would be a good starting point for historical data. The data points themselves would be a player’s pre, mid and end of season draft ranking, then their actual selection at the draft.

Points, games played, and one of WAR/SPAR would be the indicators of a player’s success.

I’m debating with myself if it’s necessary to have a comparison tool like average points per game by a player selected at spot X. Did they under/over perform relative to draft slot? Even though they fell/rose in the rankings, did they end up in the right spot?
 
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As I've said before, I don't see a lot of value in doing a study like that because I think each should be treated case by case. Sometimes I think players fall for legitimate/good reasons. Sometimes I think they fall for stupid reasons. I don't like just lumping them all together to try and come up with a conclusion like "you should/should not draft fallers".

I think you treat it case by case.

But y'all go ahead.
 
Frk It said:
As I've said before, I don't see a lot of value in doing a study like that because I think each should be treated case by case. Sometimes I think players fall for legitimate/good reasons. Sometimes I think they fall for stupid reasons. I don't like just lumping them all together to try and come up with a conclusion like "you should/should not draft fallers".

I think you treat it case by case.

But y'all go ahead.
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I disagree because by collecting this data you can drill down on specific data points and it can help you better understand the narrative. Additionally it might be used to show a direct correlation between a steep climb in the rankings and NHL stardom.

Some guys dropped because of injuries. Others were just busts. What percent of these guys turned it around? Some guys like Beniers and Stutzle were blips outside the top 15 in preseason rankings but went too 3 at the draft. What percent of these guys turned into big time stars?
 
OgeeOgelthorpe said:
I disagree because by collecting this data you can drill down on specific data points and it can help you better understand the narrative. Additionally it might be used to show a direct correlation between a steep climb in the rankings and NHL stardom.

Some guys dropped because of injuries. Others were just busts. What percent of these guys turned it around? Some guys like Beniers and Stutzle were blips outside the top 15 in preseason rankings but went too 3 at the draft. What percent of these guys turned into big time stars?
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Logistically it is beyond a pain in the ass too, because what constitutes a riser? What constitutes a faller? Whose rankings do we go by?

Matt Beniers was #4 on Bob Mckenzie's first ranking for the 2021 draft.. we are calling him a riser?
 
Frk It said:
Logistically it is beyond a pain in the ass too, because what constitutes a riser? What constitutes a faller? Whose rankings do we go by?

Matt Beniers was #4 on Bob Mckenzie's first ranking for the 2021 draft.. we are calling him a riser?
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That brings up a good point. Do we use one list for rankings or multiple? I think using at least CSB should be the start, then look at other outlets like THN, the black book, elite prospects and/or Bobby Margarita.

EDIT: As for Beniers, yes. In 2020 prior to the start of the season people talked about Beniers as if he was a future 3C. I think I saw him ranked in the 20s at one point.
 
OgeeOgelthorpe said:
That brings up a good point. Do we use one list for rankings or multiple? I think using at least CSB should be the start, then look at other outlets like THN, the black book, elite prospects and/or Bobby Margarita.

EDIT: As for Beniers, yes. In 2020 prior to the start of the season people talked about Beniers as if he was a future 3C. I think I saw him ranked in the 20s at one point.
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See but your kind of putting your opinion on that, that he is a riser. And I get where you are coming from, because he did seem like a riser that year to me too.

Y'all can go ahead with it if you are all about it, I just see it as pretty futile.

One point that kind of illustrates my issue with this exercise is this --

I think Ryan Merkley was a faller in his draft for good reasons.

I think Anton Lundell was a faller in his draft for stupid reasons.
 
ButtKrak said:
Huge risk though. Most prospects that like to slow down the play wind up looking more like Zadina than Robertson.

This team needs a center that can carry the puck, and it's a much harder task for a player that has average skating. Very few players can shield the puck like Zetterberg did, though this kid looks like he has some size.

Now that the Wings are back on the tank, I might have to watch some prospects. Didn't really expect to be picking top 10 this draft, but it appears to be where the team is headed.
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Zetterburg was faster than Datsyuk , but Pavel was in my memory for Red Wings our best ever puck carrier .
I believe Zetterburg was our best defensive forward, always played against the best.

OgeeOgelthorpe said:
That brings up a good point. Do we use one list for rankings or multiple? I think using at least CSB should be the start, then look at other outlets like THN, the black book, elite prospects and/or Bobby Margarita.

EDIT: As for Beniers, yes. In 2020 prior to the start of the season people talked about Beniers as if he was a future 3C. I think I saw him ranked in the 20s at one point.
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Sounds like Kasper
 
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lilidk said:
Zetterburg was faster than Datsyuk , but Pavel was in my memory for Red Wings our best ever puck carrier .
I believe Zetterburg was our best defensive forward, always played against the best.


Sounds like Kasper
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Zetterberg wasn't faster than Datsyuk. Even or if anything Pavel was quicker.

When does your memory of the Red Wings begin? Because Fedorov was better than Pavel and Z for either category.
 
norrisnick said:
Zetterberg wasn't faster than Datsyuk. Even or if anything Pavel was quicker.

When does your memory of the Red Wings begin? Because Fedorov was better than Pavel and Z for either category.
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Mid 90ies . Fedorov was probably the best , but he also was surrounded by better players. He also played as defensement and was very good at any position, but if I have to choose between Fedorov and Datsyuk in very important moment of the game would take Pavel
 
lilidk said:
Mid 90ies . Fedorov was probably the best , but he also was surrounded by better players. He also played as defensement and was very good at any position, but if I have to choose between Fedorov and Datsyuk in very important moment of the game would take Pavel
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I see.
 
ButtKrak said:
Huge risk though. Most prospects that like to slow down the play wind up looking more like Zadina than Robertson.

This team needs a center that can carry the puck, and it's a much harder task for a player that has average skating. Very few players can shield the puck like Zetterberg did, though this kid looks like he has some size.

Now that the Wings are back on the tank, I might have to watch some prospects. Didn't really expect to be picking top 10 this draft, but it appears to be where the team is headed.
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That is exactly how you play slow.
 
OgeeOgelthorpe said:
That brings up a good point. Do we use one list for rankings or multiple? I think using at least CSB should be the start, then look at other outlets like THN, the black book, elite prospects and/or Bobby Margarita.

EDIT: As for Beniers, yes. In 2020 prior to the start of the season people talked about Beniers as if he was a future 3C. I think I saw him ranked in the 20s at one point.
Click to expand...

Frk It said:
See but your kind of putting your opinion on that, that he is a riser. And I get where you are coming from, because he did seem like a riser that year to me too.

Y'all can go ahead with it if you are all about it, I just see it as pretty futile.

One point that kind of illustrates my issue with this exercise is this --

I think Ryan Merkley was a faller in his draft for good reasons.

I think Anton Lundell was a faller in his draft for stupid reasons.
Click to expand...
I've been finding it super difficult to find historic rankings, that could be a hindrance. I've identified a few risers and faller from 2015-2018
 
Frk It said:
See but your kind of putting your opinion on that, that he is a riser. And I get where you are coming from, because he did seem like a riser that year to me too.

Y'all can go ahead with it if you are all about it, I just see it as pretty futile.

One point that kind of illustrates my issue with this exercise is this --

I think Ryan Merkley was a faller in his draft for good reasons.

I think Anton Lundell was a faller in his draft for stupid reasons.
Click to expand...

And again, it’s to see how often those fallers like Merkley or Berggren or Veleno or McIsaac actually turn it around.
NickH8 said:
I've been finding it super difficult to find historic rankings, that could be a hindrance. I've identified a few risers and faller from 2015-2018
Click to expand...

The draft analyst has a lot of historic data on their site.
 
OgeeOgelthorpe said:
And again, it’s to see how often those fallers like Merkley or Berggren or Veleno or McIsaac actually turn it around.


The draft analyst has a lot of historic data on their site.
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Do you have a link?

McKenzies list sounds great because it's already an aggregate but his preseason lists are usually only 15 or so players deep. We could focus this on 1st round players if we wanted and it could work for fallers, but if we can I'd like to get a pretty broad data set.

It's gonna be hard to do a perfect study (that never will happen lol) but I think it's something we could get some insights from. If there's no statistical significance then we're still learning something, that there's no reason to avoid or gravitate towards risers or fallers.
 
NickH8 said:
Do you have a link?

McKenzies list sounds great because it's already an aggregate but his preseason lists are usually only 15 or so players deep. We could focus this on 1st round players if we wanted and it could work for fallers, but if we can I'd like to get a pretty broad data set.

It's gonna be hard to do a perfect study (that never will happen lol) but I think it's something we could get some insights from. If there's no statistical significance then we're still learning something, that there's no reason to avoid or gravitate towards risers or fallers.
Click to expand...

1st round would work. 2nd round would provide even more insight. (Berggren, Raty, etc)

Edit: here’s the draft analyst archive.

Rankings
 
Bradley Nadeau could be an interesting name for us in the 2nd round.

Wasn't in the top 32 on the recent list put out by Mckenzie. But he has 29 goals and 69 points in 35 games in the BCHL. He is on a pretty powerhouse team, though. Could be one of those guys where you wonder why he wasn't picked higher.

 
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