Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Lebanezer]

I guess my issue with your lineup is that it’s got 4 or 5 very young forwards pencilled into the top-6 with Granlund as the only vet (and he may get traded at the deadline) if Couture isn’t healthy. Let’s say Couture can’t play and none of Musty/Graf/Gushchin are good enough to play top-6 minutes. What do you do?

I agree completely that the defense needs a major overhaul—in my roster, zero defensemen who played top-4 minutes this season (Ferraro, Emberson, Thrun, Burroughs/Rutta) are in the top-4 anymore.

You're probably right that my approach in this case is backwards. As in, prepare for Couture to not be available. In that case, sign/trade for a 2/3C on July 1st, and if Couture is healthy, then great. Regarding all the youth in the top 6, I'm fairly optimistic that Celebrini will be able to handle himself just fine. I think that Smith will need more sheltering. If Gushchin or Graf isn't ready for top 6 minutes, then reassess internally and see if Bordeleau or Kostin can step into that role in the short term. Maybe Bystedt or Edstrom dominates in the AHL and needs a look. I don't want to block the prospects, but you already addressed that your targets would be guys who can slide down the lineup.

 

[coooldude]

On Vlasic, I imagine he's probably not toxic in the dressing room, but having been a legit #2 and premier defensive dman for a decade, I'm sure he's sooo over hearing how much he sucks from fans/media. No need to buy him out this year, maybe next. As someone else said, no need to extend his buyout into the Smith/Celebrini second contract.

I bet Grier considers a Vlasic buyout as a card he can play depending on who he can grab in free agency or in a trade situation. Get a key D piece on a 4 year term that fits our timeline? Buy him out to make the space. Can't swing a move? Keep him on the roster and next year looks a whole lot like last year for Pickles.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I bet Grier considers a Vlasic buyout as a card he can play depending on who he can grab in free agency or in a trade situation. Get a key D piece on a 4 year term that fits our timeline? Buy him out to make the space. Can't swing a move? Keep him on the roster and next year looks a whole lot like last year for Pickles.

Yeah. I agree. I think a Vlasic buyout is an escape hatch Grier can pull if he needs to add some breathing room into his cap sheet. But if the org isn’t approaching the cap limit no reason to pull that rip cord. Players and coaches seem to enjoy having him around, and he does have a ton of worthwhile experience to pass on (if he is that type).

 

[matt trick]

Cap floor will be $64.7M.

Say we add Joshua (5), Demelo (5), Perron (5), Duclair (4) that takes us 67.5M assuming Celebrini (.95), Smith (.95), Emberson (1), Graf (.95), and Zadina (1.5) fill out the roster. Signing four second tier UFAs seems pretty unlikely, but adding three seems almost necessary to reach the cap floor.

Keep in mind if Ferraro, Ruuta, and/or Granlund (combined $11M) get moved out at the deadline (and we don't take cap dumps back), we should plan to be a little over the floor. We kind of need to spend $20M on 5 players (including Zadina as the 5th). Even with bad team/california premiums, that's a fair amount of cheddar given we likely won't be chasing bigger fish.

Excited to see what Grier does. If he spends to the midpoint you can add another quality player or two.

Hoping for a 10-15 point improvement next year. Still bottom 5, but at least showing some signs of improvement. Another top 3 pick next year would likely mean an elite center, right wing or D-man. Hagens is the prize (he and McKenna in 26 are Celebrini-level), but I wonder if the next tier is closer to the Smith/Michkov/Fantilli/Carlsson group, so the #1 pick is less critical than it was this year.

Hopefully we get one more #1 pick after Celebrini (statistically, we're still due for one more!), but this was absolutely the year to get #1.

 

[weastern bias]

The buyout window typically ends before free agency opens, if the org buys out Vlasic it would be a decision they have to make before they know who they can sign as a UFA

If we buyout Vlasic this summer this is the breakdown:

25 - $3.833333M
26 ‐ $4.833333M
27 - $1.333333M
28 - $1.333333M

Next summer it looks like:

26 - $4.666667M
27 - $1.166667M

So you save less than $3M in capspace in the final year of the deal and extend the penalty either one or two extra years out depending on when you pull the trigger, Doug really screwed up with the bonus structure on this one

At those rates you just let him walk away in 2 years and deal with his cap hit in the short term, we have such an insane amount of capsapce right now and we're not close to competitive so extending the penalty would be a mistake

 

[Hodge]

The buyout window typically ends before free agency opens, if the org buys out Vlasic it would be a decision they have to make before they know who they can sign as a UFA

If we buyout Vlasic this summer this is the breakdown:

25 - $3.833333M
26 ‐ $4.833333M
27 - $1.333333M
28 - $1.333333M

Next summer it looks like:

26 - $4.666667M
27 - $1.166667M

So you save less than $3M in capspace in the final year of the deal and extend the penalty either one or two extra years out depending on when you pull the trigger, Doug really screwed up with the bonus structure on this one

At those rates you just let him walk away in 2 years and deal with his cap hit in the short term, we have such an insane amount of capsapce right now and we're not close to competitive so extending the penalty would be a mistake

The penalty doesn't matter at all. There's no chance we get anywhere near the cap ceiling through 2028.

Buying out Vlasic wouldn't be to save cap space. It would be to save real money, a roster spot and a contract slot.

 

[matt trick]

The penalty doesn't matter at all. There's no chance we get anywhere near the cap ceiling through 2028.

Buying out Vlasic wouldn't be to save cap space. It would be to save real money, a roster spot and a contract slot.

Similarly, I wonder if we'll need Vlasic to hit the floor this year. Adding another $3.2M to our cap space means we'd need to invest something like $24M in 6 players via free agency, trades, and cap dumps to hit the floor. If we're going to immediately put $4-6M into a second top 4 d-man, I think it makes sense, but even than it's not totally necessary. As you said somewhere previously, Ferraro is the only guy who definitely deserves a roster spot next year. I like Emberson as a 6/7 dman and Muk likely earns a spot.

Don't see us doing full scale changes but if Vlasic, Benning, Ruuta, Addison, are replaced and two of Thrun, Boroughs, and Muk are in the AHL, I'm fine with that too. I just don't think we'll be able to attract enough talent to require subtracting that many guys.

 

[STL Shark]

The buyout window typically ends before free agency opens, if the org buys out Vlasic it would be a decision they have to make before they know who they can sign as a UFA

If we buyout Vlasic this summer this is the breakdown:

25 - $3.833333M
26 ‐ $4.833333M
27 - $1.333333M
28 - $1.333333M

Next summer it looks like:

26 - $4.666667M
27 - $1.166667M

So you save less than $3M in capspace in the final year of the deal and extend the penalty either one or two extra years out depending on when you pull the trigger, Doug really screwed up with the bonus structure on this one

At those rates you just let him walk away in 2 years and deal with his cap hit in the short term, we have such an insane amount of capsapce right now and we're not close to competitive so extending the penalty would be a mistake

Can always go the arb route with Kunin/Zadina to open up another buyout window if need be.

I think it is unlikely that Vlasic is bought out though because we don't need cap space and because he can sit around as the 7/8D without taking PT away from a younger player to sit in the press box.

 

[Cas]

We can also just bury Vlasic and have $5,850,000 on our books. That would clear a roster spot in the NHL, avoid pushing the cap hit out for a third/fourth year, and keep a rather solid amount of cap floor cushion around.

 

[Gecklund]

I bet Grier considers a Vlasic buyout as a card he can play depending on who he can grab in free agency or in a trade situation. Get a key D piece on a 4 year term that fits our timeline? Buy him out to make the space. Can't swing a move? Keep him on the roster and next year looks a whole lot like last year for Pickles.

Unless we have someone go to arbitration (which I doubt) I believe the buy out period ends before FA begins.

 

[Hodge]

We can also just bury Vlasic and have $5,850,000 on our books. That would clear a roster spot in the NHL, avoid pushing the cap hit out for a third/fourth year, and keep a rather solid amount of cap floor cushion around.

So we save a meaningless amount of cap space that we won't use, $0 USD, 0 contract slots and have a disgruntled Vlasic poisoning the youth.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Unless we have someone go to arbitration (which I doubt) I believe the buy out period ends before FA begins.

I don't see a reason to doubt having someone go to arbitration. If the team feels like they want the option, it's pretty easy to slow play an RFA after giving them their QO. We have six arbitration options. It would be smart of them to have a player go that route in case they do need to buy out Vlasic.

 

[Gecklund]

I don't see a reason to doubt having someone go to arbitration. If the team feels like they want the option, it's pretty easy to slow play an RFA after giving them their QO. We have six arbitration options. It would be smart of them to have a player go that route in case they do need to buy out Vlasic.

I believe we only have 4 and none of the 4 have strong arbitration cases. Kunin is probably most likely but at the same time, I feel like Grier wouldn’t want to piss him off. Addison, Zadina, Studnicka are just as likely to go unqualified as go to arbitration.

Thrun and Bordeleau for sure do not have arbitration rights. I really dont know if Emberson or Peterson do but I’d imagine they’d just take the QO at that point.

 

[STL Shark]

I believe we only have 4 and none of the 4 have strong arbitration cases. Kunin is probably most likely but at the same time, I feel like Grier wouldn’t want to piss him off. Addison, Zadina, Studnicka are just as likely to go unqualified as go to arbitration.

Thrun and Bordeleau for sure do not have arbitration rights. I really dont know if Emberson or Peterson do but I’d imagine they’d just take the QO at that point.

Zadina would have the best case for arb because his starting number on the QO is going to be much lower than that of Kunin. Studnicka and Addison will both be non-tendered.

 

[weastern bias]

The penalty doesn't matter at all. There's no chance we get anywhere near the cap ceiling through 2028.

Buying out Vlasic wouldn't be to save cap space. It would be to save real money, a roster spot and a contract slot.

I disagree just on the off chance that Celebrini or Smith really break out big much earlier than we expect and we want that extra flexibility available for immediate team building

Not likely, but I'd rather avoid unnecessary complications beyond the original length of the contract just in case

We can also just bury Vlasic and have $5,850,000 on our books. That would clear a roster spot in the NHL, avoid pushing the cap hit out for a third/fourth year, and keep a rather solid amount of cap floor cushion around.

He has an NMC, he can't be sent to the minors without his consent, he can't be buried

 

[Barrie22]

I disagree just on the off chance that Celebrini or Smith really break out big much earlier than we expect and we want that extra flexibility available for immediate team building

Not likely, but I'd rather avoid unnecessary complications beyond the original length of the contract just in case

He has an NMC, he can't be sent to the minors without his consent, he can't be buried

It is now a NTC with a 3 team list of who he wants to be traded to. In the essence of trading him it's still a NMC, but in terms of movement he can now be buried in the AHL for his final 2 seasons.

 

[Hodge]

I disagree just on the off chance that Celebrini or Smith really break out big much earlier than we expect and we want that extra flexibility available for immediate team building

Not likely, but I'd rather avoid unnecessary complications beyond the original length of the contract just in case

Fair enough. Here's to hoping we need that extra $1.3 million to assemble the Draisaitl-Celebrini-Smith line.

 

[Cas]

It is now a NTC with a 3 team list of who he wants to be traded to. In the essence of trading him it's still a NMC, but in terms of movement he can now be buried in the AHL for his final 2 seasons.

Yeah, Vlasic has been bury-able for a year now.

 

[coooldude]

Yeah, Vlasic has been bury-able for a year now.

Good to learn, thanks. I still don't think they'll do him dirty like that. They'll either buy him out, or keep him in the same pressbox-or-17-minutes role. It's a more player friendly way to operate and Grier has shown he'll respect the vets.

 

[weastern bias]

It is now a NTC with a 3 team list of who he wants to be traded to. In the essence of trading him it's still a NMC, but in terms of movement he can now be buried in the AHL for his final 2 seasons.

Well I'll be God damned, you're right, he is buriable

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I believe we only have 4 and none of the 4 have strong arbitration cases. Kunin is probably most likely but at the same time, I feel like Grier wouldn’t want to piss him off. Addison, Zadina, Studnicka are just as likely to go unqualified as go to arbitration.

Thrun and Bordeleau for sure do not have arbitration rights. I really dont know if Emberson or Peterson do but I’d imagine they’d just take the QO at that point.

I don't think a strong arbitration case is necessarily the reason why some of these decisions happen but for the team it is often a useful option. Philadelphia used Noah Cates' arbitration to open the buyout window to get rid of Tony DeAngelo last year. It's quite possible that those three could go unqualified but it makes sense for the team to hold on to Vlasic during the free agency period to see if they're able to swing enough moves to justify buying him out. And having someone go to arbitration for them is an easy way to make that happen whether or not they have a case. Most of them get settled w/o a hearing anyway. If Emberson is in the plans in the short term, it makes sense to qualify him and try to go the arbitration route to keep their options open. If you don't want to risk it with him, you can certainly risk it with any of the other five as the terms of the conclusion of this process should in no way inhibit them from doing anything they want.

 

[STL Shark]

There is so much waste/redundancy right now with this group that it is incredibly hard to figure out where the roster spots come from to make the team better. In the forward group, you simply can't have Bordeleau/Zadina in a top 9 that also features Celebrini, Smith, and Eklund because there isn't enough size/physical play (but Bordeleau/Zadina also can't play 4th line roles either).

Defensively, where do you have roster spots to even try and make the D group better with Ferraro, Muk, Thrun, Vlasic, Burroughs, Benning, Rutta and Emberson already occupying roster spots (Muk doesn't have one yet, but he 100% should over basically anyone on that list). That's literally 8 defensemen on the roster. How do you get out from 3 guys from the Vlasic, Benning, Burroughs, and Rutta group to add 2 D-Men that are better while not taking playing time from Muk/Thrun/Emberson?

Not saying that we need to turnover the entire roster this year and fill it again with a single class of UFAs, but with the comments about improving the roster to be better this coming season I just don't see where the roster spots are going to come from without buying out and/or demoting/trading at least 5-6 guys (and most of the ones that should go carry minimal to no trade value).

 

[Cas]

There is so much waste/redundancy right now with this group that it is incredibly hard to figure out where the roster spots come from to make the team better. In the forward group, you simply can't have Bordeleau/Zadina in a top 9 that also features Celebrini, Smith, and Eklund because there isn't enough size/physical play (but Bordeleau/Zadina also can't play 4th line roles either).

Defensively, where do you have roster spots to even try and make the D group better with Ferraro, Muk, Thrun, Vlasic, Burroughs, Benning, Rutta and Emberson already occupying roster spots (Muk doesn't have one yet, but he 100% should over basically anyone on that list). That's literally 8 defensemen on the roster. How do you get out from 3 guys from the Vlasic, Benning, Burroughs, and Rutta group to add 2 D-Men that are better while not taking playing time from Muk/Thrun/Emberson?

Not saying that we need to turnover the entire roster this year and fill it again with a single class of UFAs, but with the comments about improving the roster to be better this coming season I just don't see where the roster spots are going to come from without buying out and/or demoting/trading at least 5-6 guys (and most of the ones that should go carry minimal to no trade value).

I don't have a problem with demoting a bunch of guys. Vlasic and Burroughs are not NHL players at this point, and Benning isn't much better (we'll see after his injury how he holds up, too). I'm not exactly sold on Thrun, either. I'd keep Emberson up for a bit as he's waiver-eligible and see how he looks.

I don't know that Grier is unwilling to demote veterans. He did it to Knyzhov, Lindblom, and Simek, and Lindblom was one of the guys he brought in.

I wouldn't bother to keep Zadina, but maybe manipulating arbitration rules to keep a buyout window open is viable - we can always demote him, after all.

 

[TheBeard]

I've been hard on Vlasic, but he doesn't deserve to spend his last years in the AHL. I know it's a business and all, but just keep him as the 7th D-man, keep him in the press box and let him play when needed.

 

[Hodge]

I've been hard on Vlasic, but he doesn't deserve to spend his last years in the AHL. I know it's a business and all, but just keep him as the 7th D-man, keep him in the press box and let him play when needed.

Or just buy him out and let him end his career elsewhere. Assuming anyone would even offer him a one-way deal at this point.