Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[weastern bias]

It's purely due to roster spot crunch (and I also think Vlasic is toxic and checked out, not a good combo for young guys). If you're confident that one of Thrun/Mukh is AHL bound, that roster spot crunch goes away.

I don't subscribe to the "Vlasic is toxic" theory, I think he's a proud guy who was once great at his job and his body has failed him and it's eating him up, but more recently he seems to have been humbled (being a healthy scratch on the worst team in 30 years will do that) and just looks like a guy who is happy he's still getting an (unearned) opportunity in the NHL, I actually feel bad for him at this point

And I'm sure we'll have roster flexibility because someone is going to the minors ls, the only question is who?

I don't actually know if it will be Burroughs, he's one of the worst players I've ever seen in a Sharks jersey but until we know who the coach is we won't know where he stands, but we're probably not signing 2 top-flight UFA D so we're going to be flexible on the blue line, just lacking in talent like last year

 

[Cas]

Is Dakota Joshua actually any good? I don't feel comfortable offering him real money.

 

[DG93]

I don't subscribe to the "Vlasic is toxic" theory, I think he's a proud guy who was once great at his job and his body has failed him and it's eating him up, but more recently he seems to have been humbled (being a healthy scratch on the worst team in 30 years will do that) and just looks like a guy who is happy he's still getting an (unearned) opportunity in the NHL, I actually feel bad for him at this point

And I'm sure we'll have roster flexibility because someone is going to the minors ls, the only question is who?

I don't actually know if it will be Burroughs, he's one of the worst players I've ever seen in a Sharks jersey but until we know who the coach is we won't know where he stands, but we're probably not signing 2 top-flight UFA D so we're going to be flexible on the blue line, just lacking in talent like last year

Yeah, if they hire Blashill (God forbid) he may run Burroughs plenty lol

 

[weastern bias]

Yeah, if they hire Blashill (God forbid) he may run Burroughs plenty lol

I'm unsettled that he got a second interview, I hope it's just due diligence since he's the only one of the 3 main names left in the conversation (him, Sturm, Warsofsky) who has NHL head coaching experience, but his track record his horrific, it will be the single worst move of the Grier era

 

[Juxtaposer]

Is Dakota Joshua actually any good? I don't feel comfortable offering him real money.

He was really good this year. He’s definitely a late bloomer, so he doesn’t have a strong track record, but he’s been good for two years. Plus he has a lot of bottom-6 type of tools so if for some reason he doesn’t score as much, he’s still a good player to have in your bottom-6 if you aren’t in a cap crunch.

 

[Lebanezer]

When has a roster ever been perfectly filled out by prospects? It’s fun to prognosticate a lineup full of SJ draftees, but it’s crazy unrealistic. Besides, I purposely targeted guys who have the skill set to play down the lineup in two-three years if one of the highlighted kids actually earns a top-6 lineup spot.

I don’t care if Bordeleau or Gushchin is capable of playing on an NHL roster like the Sharks last season. If they can’t earn a spot on a roster that’s at least trying to be competitive (even if it’s still really bad), then they don’t deserve to be there. Kostin’s spot could easily be earned by a kid if they really actually deserve it. There is a wide chasm between “literally the worst roster of the past 20 NHL seasons” and “trying to make the playoffs”. The roster I have designed is still easily bottom-3 in the league. To me, your post reads like you don’t see any value to improving the roster except with prospects. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding you, but that’s how it comes off.

Stuffing the Sharks lineup full of children, no matter how talented they are, is not a good idea. There must be veterans there. Even just inserting Celebrini and Smith into last year’s lineup skews it uncomfortably young.

I apologize, I don't think I made my point very clearly. My response was too cursory to address the complexity in your original post or to provide full context of what I was thinking. I also did not intend to make it sound like you wanted to skip steps.

First, let me say, that among Sharks' prospects, not including Smith and Celebrini, the only ones that I think have a realistic shot to make the team out of camp are Gushchin, Graf and Musty. Gushchin because he has the most offensive ability among those 3, Graf because he has the best 2 way game, and Musty only if the Sharks don't see enough value you in sending him back to the OHL and he proves that he can hold his own in the preseason. I could see him getting 9 games and practicing and training with the Sharks for a few months before a final decision is made. I didn't include Bordeleau in that list because I don't think he's better than Gushchin offensively or Graf defensively. However, that doesn't mean he won't have a chance, as all 3 are waiver exempt to start the season. Bystedt, Edstrom, and any other guys aren't in consideration.

So, in terms of the top 6 next year, I'm perfectly comfortable going in with something like the following (line combos are essentially random):

Eklund-Celebrini-Zetterlund
Smith-Granlund-Couture/Graf/Musty/Gushchin

Hypothetical bottom 6:

Kostin-Couture/UFA-Graf/Kunin
Smith-Sturm-UFA

Obviously, if Couture is healthy that makes the decision easier, because then you don't really need a prospect, besides Smith or Celebrini, to step into a significant top 6 role. If none of Graf, Musty or Gushchin or whoever is ready for that, you still have Kostin or Kunin or whoever else the coach feels more comfortable throwing up there. If Couture is not healthy, then I think it would required to sign a 3C.

Regarding your lineup, where you placed Couture on the 3rd line with Smith, that's totally acceptable too. However, I would assume that's less likely if Couture can even play. If Couture is relegated to the 3rd line, then I would assume you had to acquire players like Dakota Joshua or Anders Lee to force him down. It's not a difficult leap to get on board with the idea of adding one mid-level UFA like Joshua. Also, if taking on Anders Lee includes a draft pick in the 1st 2 rounds, then great.

Hopefully this clears up the idea that I'm advocating for "stuffing the lineup full of children."

Regarding my comments on the defense, you didn't address those, so I'll just assume you're cool with that part.

 

[Hodge]

Tampa fans seem to think the Lightning will try to move Jeannot+Perbix as a package. We should be all over this IMO.

Maybe our 2025 2nd + Rutta for both of them?

 

[weastern bias]

Tampa fans seem to think the Lightning will try to move Jeannot+Perbix as a package. We should be all over this IMO.

Maybe our 2025 2nd + Rutta for both of them?

Perbix would be awesome

 

[matt trick]

Perbix would be awesome

He'd be our top RH d-man! Jeannot would also be a nice pickup for the bottom 6 as well. While they are both reasonably young guys, I think I'd prefer to avoid giving up the Sharks 2nd, as that pick is destined to be rather high. Unfortunately that leaves us with moving NJs 2nd, or Tampa's 3rd which I don't think is high enough.

 

[matt trick]

Is Dakota Joshua actually any good? I don't feel comfortable offering him real money.

Yes, but I think hell get $4M*4-5 years from multiple teams. I fear we'd have to be in the $5.5-$6M range and he's not worth that. Maybe on a 3 year deal as we're not likely going to have the players needing the cap space anyway. Big physical forwards are frequently some of the most overcompensated players come free agency, but with Couture, Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Granlund, Zetterlund, and a teenage Musty, we're so small. Not sure I'd say small, because those guys are fiesty/competitve, but no one is scaring opposing blueliners on dump ins, or when opposing forwards get testy before puck drop. Anders Lee would be a really excellent pickup.

I also think there aren't many players who can solve our D this year, but one or two 3-5 d-men would be an improvement. I'd keep some powder dry for Chychurn though (as UFA) if we end up with a center being clear BPA with our 1st.

On Vlasic, I imagine he's probably not toxic in the dressing room, but having been a legit #2 and premier defensive dman for a decade, I'm sure he's sooo over hearing how much he sucks from fans/media. No need to buy him out this year, maybe next. As someone else said, no need to extend his buyout into the Smith/Celebrini second contract.

 

[DG93]

Yes, but I think hell get $4M*4-5 years from multiple teams. I fear we'd have to be in the $5.5-$6M range and he's not worth that. Maybe on a 3 year deal as we're not likely going to have the players needing the cap space anyway. Big physical forwards are frequently some of the most overcompensated players come free agency, but with Couture, Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Granlund, Zetterlund, and a teenage Musty, we're so small. Not sure I'd say small, because those guys are fiesty/competitve, but no one is scaring opposing blueliners on dump ins, or when opposing forwards get testy before puck drop. Anders Lee would be a really excellent pickup.

I also think there aren't many players who can solve our D this year, but one or two 3-5 d-men would be an improvement. I'd keep some powder dry for Chychurn though (as UFA) if we end up with a center being clear BPA with our 1st.

On Vlasic, I imagine he's probably not toxic in the dressing room, but having been a legit #2 and premier defensive dman for a decade, I'm sure he's sooo over hearing how much he sucks from fans/media. No need to buy him out this year, maybe next. As someone else said, no need to extend his buyout into the Smith/Celebrini second contract.

JGP + Lee (if they wave) + Pick 20 for a 2nd round pick really would be a great trade for the Sharks. Gives Celebrini a veteran, big winger + Couture insurance at center with JGP or Smith can play on his wing + gets you another mid-late first rounder to use on Emery or a mid-first prospect who drops. I don't think NYI do it but it's nice to think about lol

 

[Cas]

Yes, but I think hell get $4M*4-5 years from multiple teams. I fear we'd have to be in the $5.5-$6M range and he's not worth that. Maybe on a 3 year deal as we're not likely going to have the players needing the cap space anyway. Big physical forwards are frequently some of the most overcompensated players come free agency, but with Couture, Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Granlund, Zetterlund, and a teenage Musty, we're so small. Not sure I'd say small, because those guys are fiesty/competitve, but no one is scaring opposing blueliners on dump ins, or when opposing forwards get testy before puck drop. Anders Lee would be a really excellent pickup.

I also think there aren't many players who can solve our D this year, but one or two 3-5 d-men would be an improvement. I'd keep some powder dry for Chychurn though (as UFA) if we end up with a center being clear BPA with our 1st.

On Vlasic, I imagine he's probably not toxic in the dressing room, but having been a legit #2 and premier defensive dman for a decade, I'm sure he's sooo over hearing how much he sucks from fans/media. No need to buy him out this year, maybe next. As someone else said, no need to extend his buyout into the Smith/Celebrini second contract.

Musty is not small (6'2", 202). Zetterlund is not tall, but very stocky (5'11", 220) - he also ranked #68 in H/60, among 240 forwards with at least 500 minutes in away games (to avoid home bias effects).

Smith and Celebrini aren't big, but aren't especially small. Eklund is small, but that's fine.

Couture and Granlund aren't part of the future anyway. We have a lot of bigger guys potentially coming up - Bystedt, Halttunen, Mukhamadullin.

I'm not really worried much about size.

 

[DG93]

Musty is not small (6'2", 202). Zetterlund is not tall, but very stocky (5'11", 220) - he also ranked #68 in H/60, among 240 forwards with at least 500 minutes in away games (to avoid home bias effects).

Smith and Celebrini aren't big, but aren't especially small. Eklund is small, but that's fine.

Couture and Granlund aren't part of the future anyway. We have a lot of bigger guys potentially coming up - Bystedt, Halttunen, Mukhamadullin.

I'm not really worried much about size.

There are also a few big forwards at the top of the 2025 draft that they can grab to complement the other forwards

 

[Cas]

There are also a few big forwards at the top of the 2025 draft that they can grab to complement the other forwards

I just really don't want to think about paying $5-6M for a 28-year-old forward whose career high is 32 points (on a 21.4% shooting percentage). That seems like a contract that can go very bad very quickly.

 

[DG93]

I just really don't want to think about paying $5-6M for a 28-year-old forward whose career high is 32 points (on a 21.4% shooting percentage). That seems like a contract that can go very bad very quickly.

Yeah, agreed...maybe on a 3-year deal though would be fine

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Tampa fans seem to think the Lightning will try to move Jeannot+Perbix as a package. We should be all over this IMO.

Maybe our 2025 2nd + Rutta for both of them?

I don't see what Jeannot and Perbix provide to the Sharks that make it worth paying a 2nd to find out. Jeannot isn't a good player and Perbix is solid but I think limited.

 

[Hodge]

I don't see what Jeannot and Perbix provide to the Sharks that make it worth paying a 2nd to find out. Jeannot isn't a good player and Perbix is solid but I think limited.

Well, for one we could put them in positions to succeed that could easily lead to us returning far more than a 2nd round pick (+ whatever pick we would have gotten for Rutta) if we decide to trade both of the pending UFAs at the deadline.

But they're also both young enough and have shown enough so far in their relatively short NHL careers that they could be valuable long term pieces worth locking up on 5+ year contracts.

 

[weastern bias]

I don't see what Jeannot and Perbix provide to the Sharks that make it worth paying a 2nd to find out. Jeannot isn't a good player and Perbix is solid but I think limited.

Perbix would immediately be our best defenseman

I'm not big on Jeannot, but I wouldn't hate taking him as a cap dump

 

[Juxtaposer]

I apologize, I don't think I made my point very clearly. My response was too cursory to address the complexity in your original post or to provide full context of what I was thinking. I also did not intend to make it sound like you wanted to skip steps.

First, let me say, that among Sharks' prospects, not including Smith and Celebrini, the only ones that I think have a realistic shot to make the team out of camp are Gushchin, Graf and Musty. Gushchin because he has the most offensive ability among those 3, Graf because he has the best 2 way game, and Musty only if the Sharks don't see enough value you in sending him back to the OHL and he proves that he can hold his own in the preseason. I could see him getting 9 games and practicing and training with the Sharks for a few months before a final decision is made. I didn't include Bordeleau in that list because I don't think he's better than Gushchin offensively or Graf defensively. However, that doesn't mean he won't have a chance, as all 3 are waiver exempt to start the season. Bystedt, Edstrom, and any other guys aren't in consideration.

So, in terms of the top 6 next year, I'm perfectly comfortable going in with something like the following (line combos are essentially random):

Eklund-Celebrini-Zetterlund
Smith-Granlund-Couture/Graf/Musty/Gushchin

Hypothetical bottom 6:

Kostin-Couture/UFA-Graf/Kunin
Smith-Sturm-UFA

Obviously, if Couture is healthy that makes the decision easier, because then you don't really need a prospect, besides Smith or Celebrini, to step into a significant top 6 role. If none of Graf, Musty or Gushchin or whoever is ready for that, you still have Kostin or Kunin or whoever else the coach feels more comfortable throwing up there. If Couture is not healthy, then I think it would required to sign a 3C.

Regarding your lineup, where you placed Couture on the 3rd line with Smith, that's totally acceptable too. However, I would assume that's less likely if Couture can even play. If Couture is relegated to the 3rd line, then I would assume you had to acquire players like Dakota Joshua or Anders Lee to force him down. It's not a difficult leap to get on board with the idea of adding one mid-level UFA like Joshua. Also, if taking on Anders Lee includes a draft pick in the 1st 2 rounds, then great.

Hopefully this clears up the idea that I'm advocating for "stuffing the lineup full of children."

Regarding my comments on the defense, you didn't address those, so I'll just assume you're cool with that part.

I guess my issue with your lineup is that it’s got 4 or 5 very young forwards pencilled into the top-6 with Granlund as the only vet (and he may get traded at the deadline) if Couture isn’t healthy. Let’s say Couture can’t play and none of Musty/Graf/Gushchin are good enough to play top-6 minutes. What do you do?

I agree completely that the defense needs a major overhaul—in my roster, zero defensemen who played top-4 minutes this season (Ferraro, Emberson, Thrun, Burroughs/Rutta) are in the top-4 anymore.

 

[matt trick]

JGP + Lee (if they wave) + Pick 20 for a 2nd round pick really would be a great trade for the Sharks. Gives Celebrini a veteran, big winger + Couture insurance at center with JGP or Smith can play on his wing + gets you another mid-late first rounder to use on Emery or a mid-first prospect who drops. I don't think NYI do it but it's nice to think about lol

Would absolutely love that move, low term, good players a positions of need. I'd honestly probably take those guys for free, if we can do it trading up 13 spots even better.

 

[matt trick]

Musty is not small (6'2", 202). Zetterlund is not tall, but very stocky (5'11", 220) - he also ranked #68 in H/60, among 240 forwards with at least 500 minutes in away games (to avoid home bias effects).

Smith and Celebrini aren't big, but aren't especially small. Eklund is small, but that's fine.

Couture and Granlund aren't part of the future anyway. We have a lot of bigger guys potentially coming up - Bystedt, Halttunen, Mukhamadullin.

I'm not really worried much about size.

Agree on Musty, he's good really good size, but as a really young player, I don't necessarily expect him to be a immediate major physical presence. Same thing goes for Bystedt, Haultenen, and Edstrom, I'd like to have some proven NHL forwards with size given all our key players. I'm concerned they'd get bullied otherwise. This isn't like when Anaheim added Perry, Penner, and Getzlaf to Selanne, McDonald, Pahlsen, and Kunitz.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Well, for one we could put them in positions to succeed that could easily lead to us returning far more than a 2nd round pick (+ whatever pick we would have gotten for Rutta) if we decide to trade both of the pending UFAs at the deadline.

But they're also both young enough and have shown enough so far in their relatively short NHL careers that they could be valuable long term pieces worth locking up on 5+ year contracts.

I just don't see the upside on either of those players to warrant moving the 2nd to find out. I don't think either would turn around and be rentable at the deadline for even a 2nd. And I don't think either fill a need worth worrying about. If we want a bad player with energy up front just re-sign Kunin. If we want a defensive 3rd pairing guy, Emberson seems to be doing alright. You can use a 2nd to address more critical lineup spots than 4W and 3RD.

Perbix would immediately be our best defenseman

I'm not big on Jeannot, but I wouldn't hate taking him as a cap dump

And if Perbix is our best defenseman, he's not going to do much different than what our current crop of defensemen does on this team. Perbix plays a pretty simple game because not much is asked of him when he's playing with Tampa's group of blue liners. That kind of player is easily obtainable. We need to find the ones that are difficult and find ways to get the plentiful types in at little to no cost. A 2nd is too much for what we're talking about here.

 

[weastern bias]

And if Perbix is our best defenseman, he's not going to do much different than what our current crop of defensemen does on this team. Perbix plays a pretty simple game because not much is asked of him when he's playing with Tampa's group of blue liners. That kind of player is easily obtainable. We need to find the ones that are difficult and find ways to get the plentiful types in at little to no cost. A 2nd is too much for what we're talking about hehere

I didn't note the acquisition cost in the hypothetical, I agree a 2nd is a bit rich, but I would certainly love to add the player in a vacuum

 

[Juxtaposer]

Well, for one we could put them in positions to succeed that could easily lead to us returning far more than a 2nd round pick (+ whatever pick we would have gotten for Rutta) if we decide to trade both of the pending UFAs at the deadline.

But they're also both young enough and have shown enough so far in their relatively short NHL careers that they could be valuable long term pieces worth locking up on 5+ year contracts.

Why are we doing Tampa a favor? They need to clear cap, not take on an overpaid depth defenseman like Rutta. I have some interest in that package, but it would be for future considerations, not a very high 2nd rounder. Perbix was horrible this past season and so was Jeannot.

 

[Grinner]

Prebix and Jeannot are place holders
Mr right nows