Speculation: 2023-24 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Hodge]

Well, even if we finish last, the most likely scenario is we pick 3rd. Then 1st, then 2nd.
1st (25.5%) - 18.5% to win lotto + 7% teams in 12-16th win and can't move up to 1st
2nd (18.8%) - 74.5% chance we lose lotto then win 2nd lotto or teams 13-16 win it
3rd (55.7%) - if neither 1st nor 2nd happen

It's funny because of all the talk about being happy that Misa is available at 2, but the Sharks picking there is by far the least likely outcome.

It's gonna be Schaefer or Martone. No point discussing anybody else really.

 

[Lebanezer]

Way too much bad juju discussing Schaefer in the lineup.

Y'all should be debating whether we draft Hagens, Martone, Eklund, Frondell, Desnoyers, Mrtka, J.Smith, and where THEY would play next year.

Edit: the answer is, none of them should play in the NHL next year. NCAA for north Americans and stay in Sweden for the swedes.

It's weird, he's both too old, and a goalie.

Nolan Schaefer Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Nolan Schaefer, a hockey player from Yellow Grass, SASK born Jan 15 1980 who was active from 1998 to 2015.

www.hockeydb.com

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Well, even if we finish last, the most likely scenario is we pick 3rd. Then 1st, then 2nd.
1st (25.5%) - 18.5% to win lotto + 7% teams in 12-16th win and can't move up to 1st
2nd (18.8%) - 74.5% chance we lose lotto then win 2nd lotto or teams 13-16 win it
3rd (55.7%) - if neither 1st nor 2nd happen

It's funny because of all the talk about being happy that Misa is available at 2, but the Sharks picking there is by far the least likely outcome.

It's only the most likely scenario based on the odds against the field but that's not really an accurate reflection of what the most likely outcome for the draft lottery is going to be. No team has better odds for 1st overall than the team that placed last therefore that team's most likely scenario is to select 1st.

 

[coooldude]

It's only the most likely scenario based on the odds against the field but that's not really an accurate reflection of what the most likely outcome for the draft lottery is going to be. No team has better odds for 1st overall than the team that placed last therefore that team's most likely scenario is to select 1st.

This seems like a weird point to try to force.

We have the best odds of anyone at 1OA. This is true. Therefore the most likely team in the NHL to pick 1st is the Sharks.

It is also true that the most likely scenario for the Sharks is that we pick 3rd, at 55.7%. And that as you say, it's Sharks vs. the FIELD, then the FIELD is more likely to pick 1OA, in fact nearly 75% likely. I assume you know the probabilities, so I'm just unclear the point you're trying to make.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This seems like a weird point to try to force.

We have the best odds of anyone at 1OA. This is true. Therefore the most likely team in the NHL to pick 1st is the Sharks.

It is also true that the most likely scenario for the Sharks is that we pick 3rd, at 55.7%. And that as you say, it's Sharks vs. the FIELD, then the FIELD is more likely to pick 1OA, in fact nearly 75% likely. I assume you know the probabilities, so I'm just unclear the point you're trying to make.

View attachment 996294

It's weird to force the point of we should only talk about who might be at 3rd because that's the most likely scenario when an equally logical 'most likely scenario' has the team picking 1st overall. In reality, both scenarios are more than justifiable enough to discuss who will be drafted and where they will play next season. You're trying to force this to stifle discussion that has no impact on anything that will happen. Also, in the four times these lottery rules have happened, the most likely scenario of the last place team winning the top pick is 3 out of 4. The most likely scenario for the last place team to end up 3rd hasn't happened yet.

 

[Star Platinum]

Way too much bad juju discussing Schaefer in the lineup.

Y'all should be debating whether we draft Hagens, Martone, Eklund, Frondell, Desnoyers, Mrtka, J.Smith, and where THEY would play next year.

Edit: the answer is, none of them should play in the NHL next year. NCAA for north Americans and stay in Sweden for the swedes.

That's what I've been saying! Sweden is for Swedes! Why can't they be content there?

(note, not you Eklund, you can stay )

 

[Star Platinum]

It's weird to force the point of we should only talk about who might be at 3rd because that's the most likely scenario when an equally logical 'most likely scenario' has the team picking 1st overall. In reality, both scenarios are more than justifiable enough to discuss who will be drafted and where they will play next season. You're trying to force this to stifle discussion that has no impact on anything that will happen. Also, in the four times these lottery rules have happened, the most likely scenario of the last place team winning the top pick is 3 out of 4. The most likely scenario for the last place team to end up 3rd hasn't happened yet.

I guess now would be an inappropriate time for us to talk about the utmost importance of not thumbing our noses at the hockey lottery gods...

 

[coooldude]

It's weird to force the point of we should only talk about who might be at 3rd because that's the most likely scenario when an equally logical 'most likely scenario' has the team picking 1st overall. In reality, both scenarios are more than justifiable enough to discuss who will be drafted and where they will play next season. You're trying to force this to stifle discussion that has no impact on anything that will happen. Also, in the four times these lottery rules have happened, the most likely scenario of the last place team winning the top pick is 3 out of 4. The most likely scenario for the last place team to end up 3rd hasn't happened yet.

Feel free to discuss away. Schaefer in the lineup, out of the lineup, whatever. I don't enjoy the hypothetical-on-hypothetical discussions but if you do, and you aggressively defend it, go. for. it! We're not talking about logic here, we're talking about preference.

I will say: your description of probability is objectively incorrect. You really can't argue your way out of it. "equally logical most likely scenario" only if you ignore math. If I flip a coin 4 times and it comes up heads 4 times, that doesn't mean it's going to come up heads a 5th time. The probability is still 50/50 on the 5th flip.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Schaefer would look good in teal, but I agree on waiting until his name is called by MG at the draft.
It's just that when you are very sure you are getting a certain player and it doesn't happen, the feeling is actually pretty bad.

 

[TheBeard]

It's weird to force the point of we should only talk about who might be at 3rd because that's the most likely scenario when an equally logical 'most likely scenario' has the team picking 1st overall. In reality, both scenarios are more than justifiable enough to discuss who will be drafted and where they will play next season. You're trying to force this to stifle discussion that has no impact on anything that will happen. Also, in the four times these lottery rules have happened, the most likely scenario of the last place team winning the top pick is 3 out of 4. The most likely scenario for the last place team to end up 3rd hasn't happened yet.

As much as I admire your optimism, the odds of us getting first and us getting third are not the same. Now the odds of us getting first are better than any other one team. That is true. But the odds of any other team Getting first overall is significantly higher.

 

[vortexx]

The most likely scenario is that we draft first.

This statement confuses the hell out of me...as others have stated we have a 25.5% chance to get the first overall pick, 18.8% chance to get the second, and 55.7% to get the third you cannot argue those odds/percentages we are most likely picking third, and this isn't even a lock as there is no guarantee yet we end up last in the NHL.

Either way I don't mind the discussion of having Schaefer in our lineup..... I just find it a little odd that there isn't more discussion on who we pick if Schaefer or Misa is not available, as the odds/percentages show we are most likely picking #3 and that is where the real questions/debate come into play. Seems easy to predict if Schaefer is available we pick him, if Schaefer is taken but Misa is there we take him, if both are gone, your guess is as good as mine on who we take. Martone? Hagens? Frondell? Desnoyers? Mrtka?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I guess now would be an inappropriate time for us to talk about the utmost importance of not thumbing our noses at the hockey lottery gods...

There is never an appropriate time for that because it is never true!

Feel free to discuss away. Schaefer in the lineup, out of the lineup, whatever. I don't enjoy the hypothetical-on-hypothetical discussions but if you do, and you aggressively defend it, go. for. it! We're not talking about logic here, we're talking about preference.

I will say: your description of probability is objectively incorrect. You really can't argue your way out of it. "equally logical most likely scenario" only if you ignore math. If I flip a coin 4 times and it comes up heads 4 times, that doesn't mean it's going to come up heads a 5th time. The probability is still 50/50 on the 5th flip.

You can say anything you like about the topic of probability but arguing their most likely scenario is to end up 3rd is also objectively incorrect.

 

[Star Platinum]

There is never an appropriate time for that because it is never true!

As an avowed atheist, I never mess with incurring the wrath of a sports-related deity

 

[Star Platinum]

This statement confuses the hell out of me...as others have stated we have a 25.5% chance to get the first overall pick, 18.8% chance to get the second, and 55.7% to get the third you cannot argue those odds/percentages we are most likely picking third, and this isn't even a lock as there is no guarantee yet we end up last in the NHL.

Either way I don't mind the discussion of having Schaefer in our lineup..... I just find it a little odd that there isn't more discussion on who we pick if Schaefer or Misa is not available, as the odds/percentages show we are most likely picking #3 and that is where the real questions/debate come into play. Seems easy to predict if Schaefer is available we pick him, if Schaefer is taken but Misa is there we take him, if both are gone, your guess is as good as mine on who we take. Martone? Hagens? Frondell? Desnoyers? Mrtka?

After watching some recent videos, I think I'm still sticking with Hagens, college production and smurfiness be damned. The skills are there if not necessarily the production I'd have expected this year

 

[Pinkfloyd]

As much as I admire your optimism, the odds of us getting first and us getting third are not the same. Now the odds of us getting first are better than any other one team. That is true. But the odds of any other team Getting first overall is significantly higher.

They don't need to be the same. That whole bit is misleading because the most likely scenario of ending up 3rd requires a probability that is nowhere near the 55% number to actually happen twice. And the odds of that actually happening are not really 55%.

This statement confuses the hell out of me...as others have stated we have a 25.5% chance to get the first overall pick, 18.8% chance to get the second, and 55.7% to get the third you cannot argue those odds/percentages we are most likely picking third, and this isn't even a lock as there is no guarantee yet we end up last in the NHL.

Either way I don't mind the discussion of having Schaefer in our lineup..... I just find it a little odd that there isn't more discussion on who we pick if Schaefer or Misa is not available, as the odds/percentages show we are most likely picking #3 and that is where the real questions/debate come into play. Seems easy to predict if Schaefer is available we pick him, if Schaefer is taken but Misa is there we take him, if both are gone, your guess is as good as mine on who we take. Martone? Hagens? Frondell? Desnoyers? Mrtka?

I don't think it's all that complicated why that discussion doesn't really happen. The odds pretty clearly show us in favor of getting the top selection and the reality that the only two prospects with a real chance at going straight to the NHL are Schaefer and Misa. The other kids are highly likely to return to their respective clubs for next season or go to college. If we end up 3rd, we'll choose between Hagens and Martone and they will probably return to their respective teams unless Martone decides to go to college. I don't think the other prospects are legitimately considered for the 3rd overall pick at this stage.

As an avowed atheist, I never mess with incurring the wrath of a sports-related deity

You're not as committed to the atheism as you need to be, sir!

 

[vortexx]

After watching some recent videos, I think I'm still sticking with Hagens, college production and smurfiness be damned. The skills are there if not necessarily the production I'd have expected this year

I agree I would prefer Hagens as well, he can be a legit 2C behind Celebrini and you don't have to necessarily worry if Smith doesn't translate as a C in the NHL or if he does you pick whoever you prefer as the 2C, a good problem to have. I'm not sure how I would feel about having 4 of our top 6 being 6ft or smaller and doubt Grier goes this direction, or if he does you probably expect one to get traded for a D.

If we are pick 3 my gut tells me Grier is going Martone as he wants the size/Tkachuk style player (I personally don't believe Martone is this style of player), and Grier truly believes Smith will be our 2C of the future so he doesn't feel the need to pick a C with a high pick, similar to what the Ducks did with the Sennecke pick.

 

[coooldude]

There is never an appropriate time for that because it is never true!

You can say anything you like about the topic of probability but arguing their most likely scenario is to end up 3rd is also objectively incorrect.

Honestly interested for you to explain how 55.7% < 25.5%.

 

[coooldude]

They don't need to be the same. That whole bit is misleading because the most likely scenario of ending up 3rd requires a probability that is nowhere near the 55% number to actually happen twice. And the odds of that actually happening are not really 55%.

But... they are 55%. Those are the odds.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Honestly interested for you to explain how 55.7% < 25.5%.

View attachment 996397

But... they are 55%. Those are the odds.

The actual odds are the first column and nothing else.

 

[Star Platinum]

You're not as committed to the atheism as you need to be, sir!

The stories about deities that created the earth and an afterlife for the humans that behave properly are poppycosh. Vengeful sports deities are real and not to be trifled with.

 

[coooldude]

The actual odds are the first column and nothing else.

Dude, you are very wrong here. Let me explain clearly so that everyone is on the same page.

• There is a lottery. You can watch the 2024 one here for anyone interested.
• There are 14 ping pong balls with numbers 1-14 on them loaded into a machine.
• Teams are allocated blocks of 4-digit numbers.
• Ping pong balls are drawn 1 by 1 to get a 4 number combination. There are 1,001 possible 4 number combinations.
• One combination (in 2024, it was 11, 12, 13, 14) is designated as a "redraw" so there are 1,000 possible 4 number combinations allocated to the worst 16 teams.
• This lottery happens twice, once for the first overall pick and once for the second overall pick.

The 32nd team (likely us) has enough numbers allocated us to have an 18.5% chance at "winning" the first lottery. All other teams get allocated the other 81.5%, with the one caveat that the 12-16th worst teams can only jump 10 spots, and therefore if they win the first lottery, they jump up 10 and the 32nd worst team gets the 1st overall pick. This is how we get to 25.5% chance that the Sharks win the first lottery.

Note: there is a 74.5% chance that THE FIELD "wins" the first lottery. It may be a small number for any individual team, but it is not a small number in aggregate. There are 1000 numbers, and 185 of them say "SHARKS" next to them, 70 of them say "NOT SHARKS BUT SHARKS WIN 1OA", and the other 745 numbers say "NOT SHARKS" next to them.

I repeat, there is a 74.5% chance that we do NOT win the first lottery. That is not a small number, that is a big number.

THEN, there is a second lottery for place #2 with the remaining teams. They do the same thing - 4 balls, check against the numbers. Since we have an 18.8% chance of picking 2OA, this means we have a 25.2% chance of winning the second lottery. This is because the team that already won is out, and in this case you still have remaining teams up to #12 that could move up to 2OA.

Again... in the 74.5% chance that we do not win the first lottery, we also have a 74.8% chance we do not win the second lottery. 74.5% X 74.8% = 55.7%.

I do not understand how anyone could interpret this any other way.

 

[vortexx]

• There is a lottery. You can watch the 2024 one here for anyone interested.

I know it's silly but the fact that we won the first overall pick lottery then also won the second overall pick lottery not once but TWICE, I cannot envision the hockey gods allowing us to win the first overall pick this year!

 

[Star Platinum]

Dude, you are very wrong here. Let me explain clearly so that everyone is on the same page.

• There is a lottery. You can watch the 2024 one here for anyone interested.
• There are 14 ping pong balls with numbers 1-14 on them loaded into a machine.
• Teams are allocated blocks of 4-digit numbers.
• Ping pong balls are drawn 1 by 1 to get a 4 number combination. There are 1,001 possible 4 number combinations.
• One combination (in 2024, it was 11, 12, 13, 14) is designated as a "redraw" so there are 1,000 possible 4 number combinations allocated to the worst 16 teams.
• This lottery happens twice, once for the first overall pick and once for the second overall pick.

The 32nd team (likely us) has enough numbers allocated us to have an 18.5% chance at "winning" the first lottery. All other teams get allocated the other 81.5%, with the one caveat that the 12-16th worst teams can only jump 10 spots, and therefore if they win the first lottery, they jump up 10 and the 32nd worst team gets the 1st overall pick. This is how we get to 25.5% chance that the Sharks win the first lottery.

Note: there is a 74.5% chance that THE FIELD "wins" the first lottery. It may be a small number for any individual team, but it is not a small number in aggregate. There are 1000 numbers, and 185 of them say "SHARKS" next to them, 70 of them say "NOT SHARKS BUT SHARKS WIN 1OA", and the other 745 numbers say "NOT SHARKS" next to them.

I repeat, there is a 74.5% chance that we do NOT win the first lottery. That is not a small number, that is a big number.

THEN, there is a second lottery for place #2 with the remaining teams. They do the same thing - 4 balls, check against the numbers. Since we have an 18.8% chance of picking 2OA, this means we have a 25.2% chance of winning the second lottery. This is because the team that already won is out, and in this case you still have remaining teams up to #12 that could move up to 2OA.

Again... in the 74.5% chance that we do not win the first lottery, we also have a 74.8% chance we do not win the second lottery. 74.5% X 74.8% = 55.7%.

I do not understand how anyone could interpret this any other way.

 

[timorous me]

There's no such thing as "juju" anyway.

Not only is there no such thing as juju, there's apparently no such thing as Jujubes anymore!

 

[CHALUPA]

this is hilarious