2023-24 Senators Prospect Watch

[Senator Stanley]

Gonna watch this but I actually don’t want to bother this board with my complaints

@BondraTime brought up a good point. Where does Yakemchuk even play?

If he plays with Sanderson that’s no longer a shut down pair. If he plays with chabot that’s….not good.

Did we draft a guy that high to partner kleven on the bottom pair? While this wouldn’t surprise me I doubt it was the vision.

Is there a plan to move Chabot out in the next 3 years for a stable partner FOR Yakemchuk?

I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up playing most of the next two seasons in the AHL. We've been lucky with guys like Karlsson, Chabot and Sanderson, where they were advanced enough to step quickly into NHL roles and the team's needs also allowed for it.

I know Yakemchuk looked close in the preseason, but things change when the AHL becomes an option. Take Formenton, as an example. He earned an NHL game as an 18 year old, then a full nine games as a 19 year old, before playing all of his 20 year old season in the AHL.

The three year plan could be AHL, AHL, then NHL rookie. That kicks the partner/roster construction question way down the road.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

28th and 29th goals , 90 pts, +63 in 55 games
1 more regular season game to go
turns 19 in June

 

[aragorn]

I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up playing most of the next two seasons in the AHL. We've been lucky with guys like Karlsson, Chabot and Sanderson, where they were advanced enough to step quickly into NHL roles and the team's needs also allowed for it.

I know Yakemchuk looked close in the preseason, but things change when the AHL becomes an option. Take Formenton, as an example. He earned an NHL game as an 18 year old, then a full nine games as a 19 year old, before playing all of his 20 year old season in the AHL.

The three year plan could be AHL, AHL, then NHL rookie. That kicks the partner/roster construction question way down the road.

Except Jensen's contract ends at the end of next season which gives Yak a yr in Belleville to get NHL ready if that is there timeline. They could always extend that by giving Guennette RD for example who has been in Belleville longer a shot to see if he is NHL ready or can play in the NHL while given Yak a little longer time frame.

However, Yak doesn't need to get physically bigger, he's already NHL size, all he really needs to do is to learn the NHL game & speed & play a good safe defensive game until he gets his confidence & the coach loosens the reins to let him take more offensive chances. The two that will carry this team offensively from the back end for a few yrs still will be Sanderson & Chabot as they are now. people talk about these prospects sometimes like they expect them to be instant stars & that rarely happens unless they are specials players like Tkachuk, Stutzle & Sanderson & those guys all had to learn the NHL game through tough times.

People are constantly talking about Yak producing more pts but if we look at this team after Chabot & Sanderson, Jensen has 19 pts & Zub has 10 pts this yr, not exactly stellar & the team is doing okay. I expect Yak to start slowly & yr after yr put up more & more pts & maybe in a few yrs he's a 30 to 40 pt defenceman. Chabot is making $8 mil & has 33 pts & Sanderson 47 pts again not great..

If Yak can get into the 30s & 40s he takes some pressure off them & as Chabot ages his numbers decrease. They will need another good offensive defenceman to eventually replace Chabot to increase scoring (maybe Guennette) from the back end & Kleven could also add some pts. I don't see it as a problem & expect he will help the team be better.

 

[OD99]

28th and 29th goals , 90 pts, +63 in 55 games
1 more regular season game to go
turns 19 in June

I can't wait to see him in the Senators lineup!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I can't wait to see him in the Senators lineup!

Another interesting prospect is Parekh who had 2 pts last night

He now has 200 pts between this year (104) and last (96) and is a +80 over that time.

He is another one to keep an eye on in the expanded prospect pool.

 

[OD99]

Another interesting prospect is Parekh who had 2 pts last night

He now has 200 pts between this year (104) and last (96) and is a +80 over that time.

He is another one to keep an eye on in the expanded prospect pool.

They both sound like the shot in the arm our D need!

Exciting times ahead.

 

[BondraTime]

It’s been a rough stretch when the best season a guy drafted by the Sens has had after being drafted since 2021 has been a guy taken as an overager in his 19 year old season putting up a bit less than a point per game in the OHL.

Sens haven’t had a prospect exceed expectations in their D+1 in 5 years, that’s horrible.

 

[Hun]

They both sound like the shot in the arm our D need!

Exciting times ahead.

they both are not needed

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

It’s been a rough stretch when the best season a guy drafted by the Sens has had after being drafted since 2021 has been a guy taken as an overager in his 19 year old season putting up a bit less than a point per game in the OHL.

Sens haven’t had a prospect exceed expectations in their D+1 in 5 years, that’s horrible.

I'd say this holds true for top prospects, but a few mid- and late-rounders would probably fit the bill. Montgomery (pt/g in USHL & OHL), Halliday (pt/g in NCAA), maybe another guy or two.

But those are guys who are elevating themselves from "total long shot" to "long shot with a chance"... not guys with a clear NHL projection taking a clear step forward. So I definitely see what you are getting at. It's been really bad, and the only guy with a clear NHL projection outside of Yakemchuk has been dealt away.

 

[Xspyrit]

Needless to say that a team can't afford to "go cold" at drafting during a rebuild... worst timing possible.

The last 4 drafts are looking really really bad. I would revamp the whole thing if I was Staios.

28th and 29th goals , 90 pts, +63 in 55 games
1 more regular season game to go
turns 19 in June

And Montgomery now only has 50 pts in 51 GP... I thought we had a breaking out prospect

they both are not needed

butwhy.gif

 

[BondraTime]

I'd say this holds true for top prospects, but a few mid- and late-rounders would probably fit the bill. Montgomery (pt/g in USHL & OHL), Halliday (pt/g in NCAA), maybe another guy or two.

But those are guys who are elevating themselves from "total long shot" to "long shot with a chance"... not guys with a clear NHL projection taking a clear step forward. So I definitely see what you are getting at. It's been really bad, and the only guy with a clear NHL projection outside of Yakemchuk has been dealt away.

You’re correct Halliday is the guy who fits the bill for best season D+1 for sure, and also the same with going from long shot to long shot with a chance.

The guy I was describing was Montgomery. A PPG season in the OHL is what should be expected from and NHL draft pick at forward. We’ve just become so used to the seasons, offensively, that guys like Ostapchuk, Latimer, Boucher, Ellinas have put up that an almost PPG season he a big shine on it that is otherwise just what’s expected.

Even the guys we drafted who went back to the USHL after being drafted, which is a much less usual route, have struggled offensively in their seasons after being drafted. O’Neil, Moore and Beckner were all weak offensively in their frost seasons in the USHL (Beckner having a decent year in NCAA D+2)

Taking tools and hopeful potential is going to come back to bite them sooner rather than later. At some point they need to start taking players who are already good in the leagues they are playing in.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

You’re correct Halliday is the guy who fits the bill for best season D+1 for sure, and also the same with going from long shot to long shot with a chance.

The guy I was describing was Montgomery. A PPG season in the OHL is what should be expected from and NHL draft pick at forward. We’ve just become so used to the seasons, offensively, that guys like Ostapchuk, Latimer, Boucher, Ellinas have put up that an almost PPG season he a big shine on it that is otherwise just what’s expected.

Even the guys we drafted who went back to the USHL after being drafted, which is a much less usual route, have struggled offensively in their seasons after being drafted. O’Neil, Moore and Beckner were all weak offensively in their frost seasons in the USHL (Beckner having a decent year in NCAA D+2)

Taking tools and hopeful potential is going to come back to bite them sooner rather than later. At some point they need to start taking players who are already good in the leagues they are playing in.

I debated on Montgomery, I think things looked a lot better a month ago, but included him because of the run he went on between his slow start in the O and recent cold streak.

It would be more accurate to describe him as TBD, imo, as a good playoff run could drag him over the line, but I have no qualms with your characterization either. Outside of 2020, without looking too closely, there are probably a handful or so in the last 10 years who have had a really good D+1

 

[Senator Stanley]

You’re correct Halliday is the guy who fits the bill for best season D+1 for sure, and also the same with going from long shot to long shot with a chance.

The guy I was describing was Montgomery. A PPG season in the OHL is what should be expected from and NHL draft pick at forward. We’ve just become so used to the seasons, offensively, that guys like Ostapchuk, Latimer, Boucher, Ellinas have put up that an almost PPG season he a big shine on it that is otherwise just what’s expected.

Even the guys we drafted who went back to the USHL after being drafted, which is a much less usual route, have struggled offensively in their seasons after being drafted. O’Neil, Moore and Beckner were all weak offensively in their frost seasons in the USHL (Beckner having a decent year in NCAA D+2)

Taking tools and hopeful potential is going to come back to bite them sooner rather than later. At some point they need to start taking players who are already good in the leagues they are playing in.

They like guys with projectable pro tools. But prospects with projectable tools who are also performing (i.e. are already good players in their current environments) don't make it out of the first round, so what they end up picking are guys with tools who aren't actually good, relatively speaking. They might become good - that's the bet - but they aren't good yet. When a team takes the 5'10" scorer from the OHL in the 4th round, typically that guy's going to produce in the OHL, and only get weeded out when they turn pro. The downside is basically a good OHLer but nothing more. When the Sens take the tools-only OHLer in the 4th round (or worse, higher, like Ben Rogers), the downside is they remain not good, even at their current level.

As a strategy, it's defensible. The odds of that 5'10" scorer becoming an NHLer are also low, and the value of that kind player even if he does make it tends not to be high. Setting aside who was taken right after him, it's the kind of thought process that leads to taking a guy like Tyler Kleven, who was all tools and projection but who has put it together. For where he went, that turned into a good pick. But it sure would be nice to see them balance their picks out a bit, or if they insist on going this route, at least take guys who are not such long shots (Rogers, Nordberg, any number of their Tier II late round picks).

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

You’re correct Halliday is the guy who fits the bill for best season D+1 for sure, and also the same with going from long shot to long shot with a chance.

The guy I was describing was Montgomery. A PPG season in the OHL is what should be expected from and NHL draft pick at forward. We’ve just become so used to the seasons, offensively, that guys like Ostapchuk, Latimer, Boucher, Ellinas have put up that an almost PPG season he a big shine on it that is otherwise just what’s expected.

Even the guys we drafted who went back to the USHL after being drafted, which is a much less usual route, have struggled offensively in their seasons after being drafted. O’Neil, Moore and Beckner were all weak offensively in their frost seasons in the USHL (Beckner having a decent year in NCAA D+2)

Taking tools and hopeful potential is going to come back to bite them sooner rather than later. At some point they need to start taking players who are already good in the leagues they are playing in.

not sure why you wouldn't be doing this as sop .. I mean taking the odd flyer on a player that is well under the radar due to some extenuating circumstances is fine but they too often seem to ignore the obvious and talk themselves out of the player(s) who performed vs those who if everything turns out great might. There are just too many old school like minded scouts working for the Sens. We need some fresh blood at the top and in the ranks.
I mean how quickly would they shut down a suggestion at a skilled d man 5'11 or under in favor of a project that is over 6'3. I like size and we need size but we can't ignore elite skill potential for it. There are just too many example of excellent players 5'11 or under. Many of those have proven smaller doesn't mean softer.

 

[Bileur]

I can't wait to see him in the Senators lineup!

Seriously, why are we getting constant Dickinson updates?

Sharks board is available.