GDT: 2023-24 season game 77 LA Kings vs Vancouver Canucks @7:00pm 4/6/24

[lumbergh]

Definitely don't look at the run of play (or how often the Kings are getting outplayed under Hiller). That doesn't foreshadow any problems down the road!

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Down what road? Playoffs start in like 2 weeks. News flash, xG doesn't reflect the actual score in a large fraction of games.

If you just take the Kings as an example, this season the Kings have played 70 non-shootout games so far. According to Natural Stat Trick, the xGF% has correctly predicted if the Kings win the non-shootout game 41 out 70 times, or only 59%.

You're right. "Definitely don't look at the run of play." Take that xG stat with a grain of salt. It's wrong over 40% of the time, or slightly better than a coin flip.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

With all due respect, and I mean all due respect, you are the same guy who flaunted your NHL 2007 Be a GM mode as qualifying experience when you were attempting to come from an authoritative angle.

If you think 1-3-1 is hearsay then I implore you to watch the game after the second goal. Kings let the Canucks come back into the game when as Evan’s said himself “they’re frazzled”. You think a team completely imploding was mounting a resurgence alone? It was the Kings who let them.

knowing you unfortunately, somehow someway 17 years ago on NHL be a goalie mode or whatever, you developed such a deep understanding for hockey that it defies logic.

Dude, and you are the one that was touting Quick as a shit goaltender, thinks Roy is a bad defender, and thought Byfield was a bust......trust me, I'd take my track record in this game over yours any day of the week and twice on Sundays....

Yea, let's assume that one of the top teams in the league is just going to layover and die...that makes sense, in reality it was a combination of both....but f*** it, when LA loses, it's because holy shit they suck ass, and when LA wins, it's holy shit the other team sucks ass....

 

[AbsentMojo]

I didn't think either was a board

Not by my standards but by the way NHL has been calling it. Any hits in the numbers near the boards is usually a call - yes or no? seems that way to me

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Can we put this ludicrous notion that LA can't hold a lead to bed?

Leading after 1 Period, 24 wins 3 losses, 5 OT losses tied for 4th in the league,

Leading after 2 period, 32 wins 3 OT losses, tied for 6th in the league,

Don't let facts get in your way,

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Down what road? Playoffs start in like 2 weeks. News flash, xG doesn't reflect the actual score in a large fraction of games.

If you just take the Kings as an example, this season the Kings have played 70 non-shootout games so far. According to Natural Stat Trick, the xGF% has correctly predicted if the Kings win the non-shootout game 41 out 70 times, or only 59%.

You're right. "Definitely don't look at the run of play." Take that xG stat with a grain of salt. It's wrong over 40% of the time, or slightly better than a coin flip.

Who ever said it predicts the score of any given game? If that’s what you’re looking at it for then you’re doing it completely wrong.

What it does do is tell you who is controlling the quality of scoring chances. Over a larger sample size, the teams that consistently control the quality of scoring chances for and against consistently win more than they lose.

Teams can outperform that in smaller sample sizes. The bill comes due eventually, however, if a team is consistently losing that battle. And I’ve got bad news for you: the Kings have consistently been on the wrong side of the ledger when it comes to controlling scoring chances under Hiller. That bill will come due at some point, very likely in the first round against a much better team than they’ve been generally playing since Hiller took over, one that will get 4-7 games to figure out ways to break the 1-3-1.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Who ever said it predicts the score of any given game? If that’s what you’re looking at it for then you’re doing it completely wrong.

What it does do is tell you who is controlling the quality of scoring chances. Over a larger sample size, the teams that consistently control the quality of scoring chances for and against consistently win more than they lose.

Teams can outperform that in smaller sample sizes. The bill comes due eventually, however, if a team is consistently losing that battle. And I’ve got bad news for you: the Kings have consistently been on the wrong side of the ledger when it comes to controlling scoring chances under Hiller. That bill will come due at some point, very likely in the first round against a much better team than they’ve been generally playing since Hiller took over, one that will get 4-7 games to figure out ways to break the 1-3-1.

I'm confused on this, is this the xG stat where LA sits 3rd in the league in that percentage, or the one where they sit 7th in the league, or is that per 60, 7th in the league as well?

 

[King'sPawn]

Can we put this ludicrous notion that LA can't hold a lead to bed?

Leading after 1 Period, 24 wins 3 losses, 5 OT losses tied for 4th in the league,

Leading after 2 period, 32 wins 3 OT losses, tied for 6th in the league,

Don't let facts get in your way,

But how many games did they win when leading after 3 periods? Data scientists need to know.

 

[lumbergh]

Who ever said it predicts the score of any given game? If that’s what you’re looking at it for then you’re doing it completely wrong.

What it does do is tell you who is controlling the quality of scoring chances. Over a larger sample size, the teams that consistently control the quality of scoring chances for and against consistently win more than they lose.

Teams can outperform that in smaller sample sizes. The bill comes due eventually, however, if a team is consistently losing that battle. And I’ve got bad news for you: the Kings have consistently been on the wrong side of the ledger when it comes to controlling scoring chances under Hiller. That bill will come due at some point, very likely in the first round against a much better team than they’ve been generally playing since Hiller took over, one that will get 4-7 games to figure out ways to break the 1-3-1.

Uhh, I'm not the one who posted a chart with xG for one game and used it to tell us that the Kings should have lost the game.

Also, I gave you a large sample size of 70 Kings games, and you're absolutely right, the teams that have a better xGF% win more than they lose, to the tune of 59% to 41%. Slightly better than a coin flip.

I've got good news for you. The Kings have a record of 18-10-1 under Hiller, 8th best point percentage in the league since the break. That's 29 games, so a pretty large sample size. Somehow the Kings keep winning despite an underwater xGF% (48.6%). The Kings had a very very good xGF% (54.1%) with McLellan this season, and it still got him fired. Under Hiller the Kings have thrived by substantially improving their shooting percentage and their save percentage (PDO). That's in the end how teams win individual games and whole seasons.

It's more important to actually outscore your opponent than expect to outscore your opponent.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Uhh, I'm not the one who posted a chart with xG for one game and used it to tell us that the Kings should have lost the game.

Also, I gave you a large sample size of 70 Kings games, and you're absolutely right, the teams that have a better xGF% win more than they lose, to the tune of 59% to 41%. Slightly better than a coin flip.

I've got good news for you. The Kings have a record of 18-10-1 under Hiller, 8th best point percentage in the league since the break. That's 29 games, so a pretty large sample size. Somehow the Kings keep winning despite an underwater xGF% (48.6%). The Kings had a very very good xGF% (54.1%) with McLellan this season, and it still got him fired. Under Hiller the Kings have thrived by substantially improving their shooting percentage and their save percentage (PDO). That's in the end how teams win individual games and whole seasons.

It's more important to actually outscore your opponent than expect to outscore your opponent.

oh, boy.

I'm not going to argue with you about PDO anymore because--disclaimer: I'm saying this respectfully in case it doesn't come off that way--we see eye to eye and have good convos around just about anything and everything else that your takes on PDO making me absurdly angry make me believe there's just some huge disconnect in the conversation that i cannot wrap my head around

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Uhh, I'm not the one who posted a chart with xG for one game and used it to tell us that the Kings should have lost the game.

Also, I gave you a large sample size of 70 Kings games, and you're absolutely right, the teams that have a better xGF% win more than they lose, to the tune of 59% to 41%. Slightly better than a coin flip.

I've got good news for you. The Kings have a record of 18-10-1 under Hiller, 8th best point percentage in the league since the break. That's 29 games, so a pretty large sample size. Somehow the Kings keep winning despite an underwater xGF% (48.6%). The Kings had a very very good xGF% (54.1%) with McLellan this season, and it still got him fired. Under Hiller the Kings have thrived by substantially improving their shooting percentage and their save percentage (PDO). That's in the end how teams win individual games and whole seasons.

It's more important to actually outscore your opponent than expect to outscore your opponent.

Talk about building a strawman. You are clearly being intentionally obtuse about the point I’m making by highlighting that the Kings are consistently on the wrong side of game flow under Hiller. I did not say the Kings should have lost one specific game. I used it as an example to show that the underlying trends of the team under Hiller aren’t good, notwithstanding the team’s record under Hiller. There are plenty of teams that, over smaller segments, have over-performed their ability to control the quality of chances for and against. That a team is doing so is usually a pretty good indicator of a red flag such that the team will likely be unable to continue pulling the smoke and mirrors routine.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Team is really cooking right now. Love the hit on Hughes, then Hughes getting embarrassed on the PP. Finish strong down the home stretch & see if they can find another gear.

Edit:
Complete BS Lewis didn't get the call on the busted nose.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Team is really cooking right now. Love the hit on Hughes, then Hughes getting embarrassed on the PP. Finish strong down the home stretch & see if they can find another gear.

Edit:
Complete BS Lewis didn't get the call on the busted nose.

You deserve props for walking the tight rope here as a Kings Fan all season, above the bottomless pit and its swirling winds exhaled here daily.

 

[FSL KINGS]

You deserve props for walking the tight rope here as a Kings Fan all season, above the bottomless pit and its swirling winds exhaled here daily.

The Hockey Gods only do Chaos.

This was a rough season. The team is pretty healthy & has a good mix of guys. Can they find another gear? Find out soon.