2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[VladDrag]

If Flyers fans don't have a 2nd pair defender to anoint a 1D, they start getting the shakes.

@VladDrag -- do you have his tracking data from this year?

I do, but I am on mobile. I will post it when I get on a computer or tablet.

 

[VladDrag]

If Flyers fans don't have a 2nd pair defender to anoint a 1D, they start getting the shakes.

@VladDrag -- do you have his tracking data from this year?

 

[Starat327]

View attachment 840246

Geez. It's a good thing we didnt hold our breath waiting for you to get non-mobile.

 

[GKJ]

Ant says that Kolosov could play for the Flyers before the end of the season after playing for the Phantoms, so the Flyers seem to be under the impression it can still happen despite not having non-emergency recalls

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Ant says that Kolosov could play for the Flyers before the end of the season after playing for the Phantoms, so the Flyers seem to be under the impression it can still happen despite not having non-emergency recalls

Thanks. Disregard my question on the other thread.

 

[Magua]

View attachment 840246

I'd say that about matches the eye test. Do you have Harley by chance?

 

[VladDrag]

I'd say that about matches the eye test. Do you have Harley by chance?

It’s good. I will post later when I get on a tablet or computer.

 

[Starat327]

It’s good. I will post later when I get on a tablet or computer.

...here we go again...

 

[VladDrag]

...here we go again...

Fight me

 

[ponder719]

Ant says that Kolosov could play for the Flyers before the end of the season after playing for the Phantoms, so the Flyers seem to be under the impression it can still happen despite not having non-emergency recalls

Having to choose between Petersen and Sandstrom might qualify us for a hardship exemption...

 

[GKJ]

Having to choose between Petersen and Sandstrom might qualify us for a hardship exemption...

Petersen isnt available unless it is emergency recall

 

[Random Forest]

On the York for 5th overall question, I don’t think either answer is crazy. In terms of probability distributions and expected values, I think you can easily make a case for York being the higher value.

If you look at the 4th, 5th, and 6th overall picks from 2011 to 2016, I count ~22% becoming all star level players (eg, Marner, Tkachuk), ~33% becoming top line/pair (eg, Hanifin, Jones, etc), ~11% becoming middle six/top four players (Bennett, R. Strome), and the rest (~33%) becoming replacement level or out of the league. We can quibble on the classifications, but the expected value on that distribution is roughly going to be in the range of a Sam Bennett to Pavel Zacha quality player.

Personally, I think York has a ~45% chance of being a #2/3 guy, and probably a 35% chance of being a top four quality player only. I think there’s a small, very outside shot of being a #1 (let’s say 5%) and a small chance of him regressing to a bottom pair or replacement level player (let’s say 15%). The expected value on that distribution is roughly a #3 defender.

If you want to say that you’d take the 5th overall because you have a significantly higher chance of landing a #1 all star level guy, I won’t criticize that at all. But I think the downside case for York is way too high to say it’s an easy answer. In contrast, for example, I think Drysdale’s downside case is low enough where I would much prefer the 5th overall pick and have a 1 in 5 chance at an all star level type. But York isn’t as clear cut, imo.

 

[wankstifier]

I’d add a lot to York for that pick

 

[Beef Invictus]

On the York for 5th overall question, I don’t think either answer is crazy. In terms of probability distributions and expected values, I think you can easily make a case for York being the higher value.

If you look at the 4th, 5th, and 6th overall picks from 2011 to 2016, I count ~22% becoming all star level players (eg, Marner, Tkachuk), ~33% becoming top line/pair (eg, Hanifin, Jones, etc), ~11% becoming middle six/top four players (Bennett, R. Strome), and the rest (~33%) becoming replacement level or out of the league. We can quibble on the classifications, but the expected value on that distribution is roughly going to be in the range of a Sam Bennett to Pavel Zacha quality player.

Personally, I think York has a ~45% chance of being a #2/3 guy, and probably a 35% chance of being a top four quality player only. I think there’s a small, very outside shot of being a #1 (let’s say 5%) and a small chance of him regressing to a bottom pair or replacement level player (let’s say 15%). The expected value on that distribution is roughly a #3 defender.

If you want to say that you’d take the 5th overall because you have a significantly higher chance of landing a #1 all star level guy, I won’t criticize that at all. But I think the downside case for York is way too high to say it’s an easy answer. In contrast, for example, I think Drysdale’s downside case is low enough where I would much prefer the 5th overall pick and have a 1 in 5 chance at an all star level type. But York isn’t as clear cut, imo.

Yeah I lean towards "trade" but it is close. Crucially for me, he fits my criteria of "likely to be useful in Michkov's prime" and that creates a lot of reluctance. I'm not sure there's a strictly right answer.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

York/Sanheim is a tough tandem to break up but I get the temptation

 

[Random Forest]

Yeah I lean towards "trade" but it is close. Crucially for me, he fits my criteria of "likely to be useful in Michkov's prime" and that creates a lot of reluctance. I'm not sure there's a strictly right answer.

Agreed. I lean trade as well, but tbh, York is already performing at or close to the quality you would expect of an average 5th overall pick. The pick is not a slam dunk, though it does have considerably higher odds of being an elite player. But York’s odds of becoming elite aren’t zero either (still much closer to zero than the pick though).

 

[Starat327]

Fight me

I would but apparently you're so busy pretending to do other things.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

On the York for 5th overall question, I don’t think either answer is crazy. In terms of probability distributions and expected values, I think you can easily make a case for York being the higher value.

If you look at the 4th, 5th, and 6th overall picks from 2011 to 2016, I count ~22% becoming all star level players (eg, Marner, Tkachuk), ~33% becoming top line/pair (eg, Hanifin, Jones, etc), ~11% becoming middle six/top four players (Bennett, R. Strome), and the rest (~33%) becoming replacement level or out of the league. We can quibble on the classifications, but the expected value on that distribution is roughly going to be in the range of a Sam Bennett to Pavel Zacha quality player.

Personally, I think York has a ~45% chance of being a #2/3 guy, and probably a 35% chance of being a top four quality player only. I think there’s a small, very outside shot of being a #1 (let’s say 5%) and a small chance of him regressing to a bottom pair or replacement level player (let’s say 15%). The expected value on that distribution is roughly a #3 defender.

If you want to say that you’d take the 5th overall because you have a significantly higher chance of landing a #1 all star level guy, I won’t criticize that at all. But I think the downside case for York is way too high to say it’s an easy answer. In contrast, for example, I think Drysdale’s downside case is low enough where I would much prefer the 5th overall pick and have a 1 in 5 chance at an all star level type. But York isn’t as clear cut, imo.

He has zero percent chance of becoming a #1 D. He doesn't have the skillset

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think it is unlikely and I'd never bet on it, but I wouldn't rule out the addition of experience to his skillset. He's not remarkable at anything but the sum is good. He's really solid at quickly identifying the right play. He isn't doing anything game breaking, but I can't say it's impossible that he could follow a Timonenesque path. You can do something with that.

And I would never invoke Timonen lightly

He has zero percent chance of becoming a #1 D. He doesn't have the skillset

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

York may not reach #1 but the guy is a good #2 and is a perfect pairing with Sanheim

 

[Random Forest]

He has zero percent chance of becoming a #1 D. He doesn't have the skillset

I gave him a 5% chance of that outcome. That’s 1 in 20. Plenty of way more bizarre things happen with greater frequency than that.

People would have said the same of players like Weegar, Toews, Faber, Hronek, etc. hitting their “ceiling” outcomes at various points in their journeys.

You can scoff, but those things do happen, and York is currently playing 25+ minutes per game at 23 years old and doing it pretty well. I’d say he achieves that outcome in at least 1 in 20 simulations. It’s certainly in his probability distribution of potential outcomes even if it’s the absolute tail end.

 

[Appleyard]

York may not reach #1 but the guy is a good #2 and is a perfect pairing with Sanheim

He is really not a #2 level guy yet.

he is a #3-4 playing #2 minutes.

 

[tymed]

Just tossing the comparison out there as I haven't seen it suggested, but I think we could have something similar to Morrissey in York if he continues through his curve.

 

[Random Forest]

He is really not a #2 level guy yet.

he is a #3-4 playing #2 minutes.

Maybe this is true, but it’s hard for me to square the Flyers’ solid defensive output this year with York “only” playing like a #4.

If York were playing like a 3/4 but playing #2 minutes, it strikes me that the Flyers would be near the basement in terms of expected outcomes, but they’re not.

I’ll grant the fact that Walker was a big piece of that output for most of this year, as is Sanheim, but if York were performing so far below his role, I just don’t see the Flyers being in the position they find themselves in. Either they’ve been insanely lucky, or York/Sanheim have actually been better than that.

 

[Appleyard]

Maybe this is true, but it’s hard for me to square the Flyers’ solid defensive output this year with York “only” playing like a #4.

If York were playing like a 3/4 but playing #2 minutes, it strikes me that the Flyers would be near the basement in terms of expected outcomes, but they’re not.

I’ll grant the fact that Walker was a big piece of that output for most of this year, as is Sanheim, but if York were performing so far below his role, I just don’t see the Flyers being in the position they find themselves in. Either they’ve been insanely lucky, or York/Sanheim have actually been better than that.

Sanheim is playing like a #2.
Walker was playing like a #2-3.
York is playing like a #3-4.
Seeler is playing like a #4.
Risto is playing like a #4.
Zamula is playing like a #6.

That is why... as when they had a fully healthy D they had 5 guys at top 4 level.

He has been fine! But he was playing better last year (where probably played at legit #3 level not ~#3-4).

Only reason now people are talking him up like a future #1 is the Flyers might make the play-offs and he is #2 in TOI... but isolate him from the teams play and, well, I would say if anything he has regressed slightly from last year.