- Jan 29, 2003
- 26,966
- 24,479
So I kind of wanted to give a reasoning for why a Hanifin and/or adding a RD is the right move for right now and the coming couple seasons. Bear with me my wife took the kid for the afternoon and I don't want to do my chores.
What makes the Bruins good:
- 2 #1G playing in a rotation to keep fresh and at their best.
- 2 #1D.
- Pastrnak.
- Commitment and buy in for playing team defense.
- They actually have good depth scoring, despite how it feels recently. 4th most goals in the NHL. The forwards have been doing much better at getting in and around the net and fighting for position and getting dirty goals.
A thing to not like that should have been on the list:
- Special teams. They are still top 10 with both units, barely, but they were top 5 and its trending the wrong way quickly.
What makes the Bruins not so good:
- They only have one bona fide above average 1st line player. Wait, but what about Marchand? The Marchand being outscored by Coyle and Frederic at 5 on 5? The guy tied with Nyqvist, E. Kane, and Tyler Toffoli in 5 on 5 scoring? Yeah. He is 35. Still a good player for sure, but he isn't in the upper half of first liners anymore, either. They have been solid as a team and getting into dirty areas and scoring dirty goals, but dirty goals are lucky goals... and prone to streakiness... like we are seeing. They really really needed DeBrusk to drive more offense and he hasn’t. Which is super annoying. Folks wants to write off last year as him being a passenger or whatever, but he has only one fewer 5 on 5 goals than Marchand the year before. And in the two years before COVID his 5 on 5 goal scoring was right around the level of Stamkos, Rantanen, Wheeler, Schenn, and a host of other 1st liner names. Outside of the COVID year DeBtusk has been a 1st line level goal scorer. 4 of 5 years. But then this year makes it 4 of 6 and the timing sucks.
- They spend more time in the defensive zone than the average team. Bottom 10 in shots allowed. Bottom 10 in high danger chances allowed. They only have two pairings with over 100 minutes that are above water on shot share: Lindholm/McAvoy and Lindholm/Shattenkirk. You will note that those aren't regular pairings. *INSERT SCREECHING RECORD SOUND*. How can you count having 2 #1D and commitment to team D as a pro and then follow it up with those numbers?! Well that's the next bullet.
- They are not a good team between the blue lines. Last year the Bruins had guys like Hall and Krejci who could transport the puck through center ice quickly in the middle six. Now their only forward in the top 9 that can do that is Pasta. It's a slog transitioning from defense to offense. They have tried to get some help there with Boqvist and Richard... but um... those guys aren't Krejci and Hall. Without the puck, Bergeron was a savant at disruption plays before they started and getting the puck back into Marchand and DeBrusk's hands. Their current center group just doesn't have that. All in all, this is the biggest individual difference between last years team and this years team. They are just way worse at possession and its primarily because of their play between the blue lines.
- They have had trouble closing out games. Only the Canucks have gone into the third period with the lead more than the Bruins (hey that's good!). Now, despite the Canucks loss, they have been trending better in this direction. But, a few things lead to them having trouble closing out games. 1) They have a tough time getting out of their zone when teams sell all out. 2) They are a bad neutral zone team both with and without the puck and it means the other team can re-load quickly. 3) They are not a very good team at boxing out in front of the net, although that has been improving.
- In the playoffs, you can add to this list that they don't have enough hammers to punish the other teams blue line as much as the Bruins get punished, and related to the last bullet, they are soft as a group around their own net.
Ok, so what next?
- So let's get the easy one out of the way first, they could really use a guy on the fourth line that goes out and hits and looks to punish. Duhaime has been brought up as a name that fits, but there are others. But, I also think that its worth seeing if Brazeau brings enough net front presence that maybe you decide to punt on this and live with it in exchange for some more offense from the fourth line.
- After that, in all walks of business, including building a hockey team, sometimes you have to choose between playing to your strengths or trying to patch your weaknesses. And you also have to look at how to get the best out of what you already have. Obviously, grabbing a real #1C would allow Coyle, Zacha and DeBrusk to all be in a better position to succeed. And it would probably help their neutral zone woes. But, that guy ain't available right now. So I want to talk about Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo. They have been used as an extreme defensively minded shutdown pair. And they have succeed with a goals for % in the mid-60s despite being hammered with tough usage. But, it means you are totally muting Lindholm's offense. And the Bruins are a bottom team for production from the blue line. When their forward depth is built around crashing the net and point guys getting it through. Carlo also is being put in an unideal position. Last season, Carlo was 5th in 5 on 5 TOI amongst the regulars. Now he is 3rd. Part of the Bruins puck moving and possession issues are on Carlo being out there more. Last year, Lindholm was much more successful with Clifton than with Carlo. And Lorhei with Carlo makes a lot of sense: a more limited 5 on 5 usage with plenty of PK time for Carlo, protection for Lorhei, and with the chance for some extra D zone shifts for Lindholm/Carlo. So that explains them looking at RD with Carrier and Walker.
Lindholm X
Lorhei Carlo
Now you have McAvoy, Lindholm or Lorhei out there at all times providing better offense from the blue line and taking better advantage of the Bruins ability to score dirty goals.
But, you still have to deal with the fact that Gryz has regressed. And that McAvoy certainly plays better with another D that can move. Hanifin would provide an elite #2 that could serve as McAvoy's partner for the length of a new deal.
Hanifin McAvoy
Lindholm X
Lorhei Carlo
That is easily the best D in the league. And compliments the strengths and weaknesses of the forward group well. But, you are gonna have to move out Ullmark and/or DeBrusk to pull it off. But, even if you just pull off adding the RD you have immensely helped out your puck moving and your ability to generate offense from the blue line. If you add Hanifin only, well, you can at least stop burying Lindholm/Carlo so much and even sneak in some extra time with Lindholm/Shattenkirk.
In the long run, if a real #1C becomes available, having Lorhei as a chip would be valuable as heck. And would there be a better environment to have Poitras/Merkulov develop than with such a strong D group behind him?
- Lysell would be a nice add to their ability to transition the puck from the middle six. Annoyed we haven't seen it yet.
Pretty awesome!
Well thought out, researched and articulated!
