Boston Bruins 2023-24 Roster and Salary Cap Discussion VI

[Gee Wally]

Please continue.

Also carryover from previous thread:

And if you initiate or engage in an attempt to derail the conversation, we're just gonna ban you from the thread. No personal shots. No blanket statements about the fandom. No arguments in bad faith. Done with it.

Thanks all!

Click to read more...

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I'll repost here in case @Bumper or Rico want to post a snarky response.



Rico is subtweeting me, as he is wont to do. But since you asked...

We're talking about PDO - I didn't invent it. It's included in any analytics site, including Natural Stat Trick. Pretty basic stuff, and pretty well vetted over the years. It has absolutely zero to do with Fenwick/Corsi.

PDO definition​

PDO (SPSV% aka On-ice S%+Sv%) is the sum of shooting percent (S%) and save percent (Sv%) during even strength play. Often times, but not in our dataset, it is multiplied by 10 for the sake of using whole numbers.

PDO = S% + Sv%, where
S% = goal / shots on goal and Sv% = saves / shots on goal

For an individual player, PDO measures what happens when a given player is on the ice. For a team, PDO measures the total game counts.

What does PDO really measure?​

A high PDO for team means a high proportion of shots for are going in, and/or a small fraction of shots against are going in. Therefore, the higher the PDO the better.

However, when talking about PDO, we often talk about regression to mean, meaning over time, a high PDO will fall to the mean (100), and a low PDO will rise to the mean. The reason the mean is 100 is because a shot on goal is either a goal or a save. Therefore, a total game’s S% and Sv% will always add up to 100. Likewise, summing over the entire season will always add up to 100.

And here's two graphs that shows the regression to the mean:

 

[sarge88]

I'll repost here in case @Bumper or Rico want to post a snarky response.



Rico is subtweeting me, as he is wont to do. But since you asked...

We're talking about PDO - I didn't invent it. It's included in any analytics site, including Natural Stat Trick. Pretty basic stuff, and pretty well vetted over the years. It has absolutely zero to do with Fenwick/Corsi.

PDO definition​

PDO (SPSV% aka On-ice S%+Sv%) is the sum of shooting percent (S%) and save percent (Sv%) during even strength play. Often times, but not in our dataset, it is multiplied by 10 for the sake of using whole numbers.


For an individual player, PDO measures what happens when a given player is on the ice. For a team, PDO measures the total game counts.

What does PDO really measure?​

A high PDO for team means a high proportion of shots for are going in, and/or a small fraction of shots against are going in. Therefore, the higher the PDO the better..

However, when talking about PDO, we often talk about regression to mean, meaning over time, a high PDO will fall to the mean (100), and a low PDO will rise to the mean. The reason the mean is 100 is because a shot on goal is either a goal or a save. Therefore, a total game’s S% and Sv% will always add up to 100. Likewise, summing over the entire season will always add up to 100.

And here's two graphs that shows the regression to the mean:

Not directed at you at all, because while we often disagree, I respect your opinion and dedication to what you believe in.

With that being said, knowing that charts like this exist, makes me weep for the future and long for the days when you had one chance a week to see the most “updated” statistics which was the Sunday newspaper……which by the time it was printed was usually a game behind, because the Bruins usually played on Saturday.

Not looking to begin a huge advanced stats debate, because it’s here to stay, and people follow the game the way they do, and are unlikely to change.

I just can’t get interested in that level of statistical minutiae.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Not directed at you at all, because while we often disagree, I respect your opinion and dedication to what you believe in.

With that being said, knowing that charts like this exist, makea me weep for the future and long for the days when you had one chance a week to see the most “updated” statistics which was the Sunday newspaper……which by the time it was printed was usually a game behind, because the Bruins usually played on Saturday.

Not looking to begin a huge advanced stats debate, because it’s here to stay, and people follow the game the way they do, and are unlikely to change.

I just can’t get interested in that level of statistical minutiae.

That’s fine and I understand. Analytics are a companion - the idea that people who value them (like every major hockey team from top level Midget teams on up) only watch the games via a spreadsheet or something like that is silly.

I'm not arrogant enough to think my eye can process and evaluate 36 skaters a night in a game. Much less compare them to other players across the league who I can't possibly watch on a nightly basis. Even Dom said when scouts scout, they can focus on 2, maybe 3 players at most. Analytics gives more information on how players are playing than just the naked eye.

When Forbort was being lauded for his team best goal differential early in the year, it ignored the fact that the goalies were saving over 98% of shots when he was on the ice, and the team was shooting 18% when he was on the ice. Neither are sustainable - and it's being proven out now that those numbers are regressing to the mean. PDO captures that phenomenon.

 

[sarge88]

That’s fine and I understand. Analytics are a companion - the idea that people who value them (like every major hockey team from top level Midget teams on up) only watch the games via a spreadsheet or something like that is silly.

I'm not arrogant enough to think my eye can process and evaluate 36 skaters a night in a game. Much less compare them to other players across the league who I can't possibly watch on a nightly basis. Even Dom said when scouts scout, they can focus on 2, maybe 3 players at most. Analytics gives more information on how players are playing than just the naked eye.

When Forbort was being lauded for his team best goal differential early in the year, it ignored the fact that the goalies were saving over 98% of shots when he was on the ice, and the team was shooting 18% when he was on the ice. Neither are sustainable - and it's being proven out now that those numbers are regressing to the mean. PDO captures that phenomenon.

Trust me. I get it. I’ve been goofing around with stats since the 90’s. I once had a very simple, but effective formula, if you will, for picking teams in the NCAA Basketball tourney. I pretty much used it to pick between teams I wasn’t familiar with.

I‘m just at a point in my life where simple is better and I enjoy watching the games more when I focus on and enjoy the things that are there to see than the underlying minutia.

 

[Oates2Neely]

“No. they are on a 127 point pace and you are railing about getting Jarred Tinordi to be tougher”. @DKH

With all due respect, the historic pace they were on last season meant nothing once the playoffs rolled around. They were outworked & physically upended.

 

[TCB]

 

[yazmybaby]

Hope Forbert is okay, anyone know what the injury is?
It's nice to have someone like Lohrei available to take his place and get more NHL games in.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Hate to see Forbort go down, hopefully he recovers quickly.

Will be good to see Lohrei back in lineup. He held his own the first time around. Hoping he can cleanup some of his rookie miscues.

 

[The National]

 

[DKH]

“No. they are on a 127 point pace and you are railing about getting Jarred Tinordi to be tougher”. @DKH

With all due respect, the historic pace they were on last season meant nothing once the playoffs rolled around. They were outworked & physically upended.

They were up 3-1 and dominated game 5 every metric

Once lines were reset at 12 minute mark they out shot Panthers 21-NOTHING & Marchand could have won last seconds on breakaway

They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left

They outplayed Panthers game 7 and missed an open net & Orlov hit cross bar final 3 minutes

The game was tied up less than a minute on deflected off I think McAvoy stick. I was so close to it I’m in video

Bruins using boxing scoring outplayed them
All but games 2 and 6 and Clifton played 4 of the worst periods I’ve seen going to Bruins games

Yes they lost but they 4 games I went to they lost because of overtime

Panthers won what 8 in a row in OT ?

 

[Dr Hook]

They were up 3-1 and dominated game 5 every metric

Once lines were reset at 12 minute mark they out shot Panthers 21-NOTHING & Marchand could have won last seconds on breakaway

They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left

They outplayed Panthers game 7 and missed an open net & Orlov hit cross bar final 3 minutes

The game was tied up less than a minute on deflected off I think McAvoy stick. I was so close to it I’m in video

Bruins using boxing scoring outplayed them
All but games 2 and 6 and Clifton played 4 of the worst periods I’ve seen going to Bruins games

Yes they lost but they 4 games I went to they lost because of overtime

Panthers won what 8 in a row in OT ?

The Bruins were good enough to win, and to stay in close games. Being able to close out was a problem, and looks to be somewhat of an issue this season as well. It needs to be addressed, however one does that sort of thing as a coach. Playoff games are typically tight affairs, and holding a lead needs to happen.

 

[sarge88]

They were up 3-1 and dominated game 5 every metric

Once lines were reset at 12 minute mark they out shot Panthers 21-NOTHING & Marchand could have won last seconds on breakaway

They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left

They outplayed Panthers game 7 and missed an open net & Orlov hit cross bar final 3 minutes

The game was tied up less than a minute on deflected off I think McAvoy stick. I was so close to it I’m in video

Bruins using boxing scoring outplayed them
All but games 2 and 6 and Clifton played 4 of the worst periods I’ve seen going to Bruins games

Yes they lost but they 4 games I went to they lost because of overtime

Panthers won what 8 in a row in OT ?

As Marchand broke in alone (I was at the game) my only thought was that I was going to be able to tell the world that I was there for probably the 2nd or 3rd best finish to a Bruins playoff game in history!

Then….coal in the stocking.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

They were up 3-1 and dominated game 5 every metric

Once lines were reset at 12 minute mark they out shot Panthers 21-NOTHING & Marchand could have won last seconds on breakaway

They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left

They outplayed Panthers game 7 and missed an open net & Orlov hit cross bar final 3 minutes

The game was tied up less than a minute on deflected off I think McAvoy stick. I was so close to it I’m in video

Bruins using boxing scoring outplayed them
All but games 2 and 6 and Clifton played 4 of the worst periods I’ve seen going to Bruins games

Yes they lost but they 4 games I went to they lost because of overtime

Panthers won what 8 in a row in OT ?

But what's the bottom line?

And if they had won and went on to lose in the Finals in OT in Game 7, it would be the same bottom line.

 

[UncleRico]

I'll repost here in case @Bumper or Rico want to post a snarky response.



Rico is subtweeting me, as he is wont to do. But since you asked...

We're talking about PDO - I didn't invent it. It's included in any analytics site, including Natural Stat Trick. Pretty basic stuff, and pretty well vetted over the years. It has absolutely zero to do with Fenwick/Corsi.

PDO definition​

PDO (SPSV% aka On-ice S%+Sv%) is the sum of shooting percent (S%) and save percent (Sv%) during even strength play. Often times, but not in our dataset, it is multiplied by 10 for the sake of using whole numbers.


For an individual player, PDO measures what happens when a given player is on the ice. For a team, PDO measures the total game counts.

What does PDO really measure?​

A high PDO for team means a high proportion of shots for are going in, and/or a small fraction of shots against are going in. Therefore, the higher the PDO the better.

However, when talking about PDO, we often talk about regression to mean, meaning over time, a high PDO will fall to the mean (100), and a low PDO will rise to the mean. The reason the mean is 100 is because a shot on goal is either a goal or a save. Therefore, a total game’s S% and Sv% will always add up to 100. Likewise, summing over the entire season will always add up to 100.

And here's two graphs that shows the regression to the mean:

I’m assuming this is the “luck” stat people are talking about?

Curious how this is a stat that measures luck. It looks like to me it’s an individual stats that is based off how offensively and defensively efficient a lines are when a player is on the ice.

Unless you are just trying to say it’s a luck stat because a person can occasionally get carried on a line. It could be in rare isolated instances like that but the whole stat isn’t based off luck.

 

[Oates2Neely]

They were up 3-1 and dominated game 5 every metric

Once lines were reset at 12 minute mark they out shot Panthers 21-NOTHING & Marchand could have won last seconds on breakaway

They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left

They outplayed Panthers game 7 and missed an open net & Orlov hit cross bar final 3 minutes

The game was tied up less than a minute on deflected off I think McAvoy stick. I was so close to it I’m in video

Bruins using boxing scoring outplayed them
All but games 2 and 6 and Clifton played 4 of the worst periods I’ve seen going to Bruins games

Yes they lost but they 4 games I went to they lost because of overtime

Panthers won what 8 in a row in OT ?

I hear ya. They should’ve/ could’ve won but they didn’t. One winner one loser. The 2011 Bruins went to game 7 in 3 out of their 4 series. Nobody remembers that the Canucks almost won, nor does anyone remember that Christian Erhoff was a minus player in that series vs Boston. We remember the Bruins winning, we remember Tim Thomas smashing a Canuck at the top of his crease when the puck trickled in the air above, we remember Marchand using Sedin’s head as a speed bag.

I remember Tkachuk confidently dominating Ullmark’s crease last seasons 1st round series, I remember Radko Gudas sitting on Marchand’s chest at least once a game.. and I remember NOT advancing to round 2. I couldn’t care less about how many regular season points they’re pacing for.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I’m assuming this is the “luck” stat people are talking about?

Curious how this is a stat that measures luck. It looks like to me it’s an individual stats that is based off how offensively and defensively efficient a lines are when a player is on the ice.

Unless you are just trying to say it’s a luck stat because a person can occasionally get carried on a line. It could be in rare isolated instances like that but the whole stat isn’t based off luck.

Again, I'm not the one saying it's a "luck stat" - this isn't my stat, nor is it my interpretation or labeling of it. Nor is it some perfect representation of "luck" either - no statistic is perfect that way. But teams/players, over time, always regress towards the 100 mark, which makes sense statistically. Not perfectly towards 100, but as the graphs I posted show, it's a standard curve.

See here:

"The upshot of all this is that PDO really is a robust measure of luck. The Islanders’ PDO of 1.022 is only about 2.5 standard deviations away from 1.000. 2.5 is rather large in terms of standard deviation, but it’s not unusual to see in a sample of 31 teams. I still suspect that some teams can affect their PDO without getting lucky, but not by much. Sooner or later, luck will even things out."

Puck Luck: Understanding PDO - Patrick Milano

[latexpage] Ice hockey analytics have improved by leaps and bounds in recent years. Many of the best new statistics (like Corsi and Fenwick) measure different kinds of shot attempts. Another newer statistic, PDO, is supposedly a measure of luck. PDO was originally introduced by Brian King on a...

patrickmilano.com

 

[DKH]

But what's the bottom line?

And if they had won and went on to lose in the Finals in OT in Game 7, it would be the same bottom line.

ok from now on i will treat the Bruins as being swept dominated and outplayed all 4 games here

This will be more fun anyways

 

[Carl Hungus]

I'll repost here in case @Bumper or Rico want to post a snarky response.



Rico is subtweeting me, as he is wont to do. But since you asked...

We're talking about PDO - I didn't invent it. It's included in any analytics site, including Natural Stat Trick. Pretty basic stuff, and pretty well vetted over the years. It has absolutely zero to do with Fenwick/Corsi.

PDO definition​

PDO (SPSV% aka On-ice S%+Sv%) is the sum of shooting percent (S%) and save percent (Sv%) during even strength play. Often times, but not in our dataset, it is multiplied by 10 for the sake of using whole numbers.


For an individual player, PDO measures what happens when a given player is on the ice. For a team, PDO measures the total game counts.

What does PDO really measure?​

A high PDO for team means a high proportion of shots for are going in, and/or a small fraction of shots against are going in. Therefore, the higher the PDO the better.

However, when talking about PDO, we often talk about regression to mean, meaning over time, a high PDO will fall to the mean (100), and a low PDO will rise to the mean. The reason the mean is 100 is because a shot on goal is either a goal or a save. Therefore, a total game’s S% and Sv% will always add up to 100. Likewise, summing over the entire season will always add up to 100.

And here's two graphs that shows the regression to the mean:

Honestly this is pretty interesting. I do like statistics but usually try to avoid that kind of thing when I'm watching hockey because it's my time to shut the brain off and relax (at least try to relax). But this is a good read and I think it makes a lot of sense. Didn't know this existed.

 

[The Storm]

They were up 3-1 and dominated game 5 every metric

Once lines were reset at 12 minute mark they out shot Panthers 21-NOTHING & Marchand could have won last seconds on breakaway

They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left

They outplayed Panthers game 7 and missed an open net & Orlov hit cross bar final 3 minutes

The game was tied up less than a minute on deflected off I think McAvoy stick. I was so close to it I’m in video

Bruins using boxing scoring outplayed them
All but games 2 and 6 and Clifton played 4 of the worst periods I’ve seen going to Bruins games

Yes they lost but they 4 games I went to they lost because of overtime

Panthers won what 8 in a row in OT ?

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. "They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left"

My perception is different. Monty left a "lame" Ullmark in net and rode him like a rented mule. It was obvious Ullmark was a having a physical problem. A healthy Sway sat on the bench.

I like our goalies a lot, but that loss is on Monty. Hope he learns from his mistakes.

 

[DKH]

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. "They blew multiple leads game 6 and led under 10 minutes left"

My perception is different. Monty left a "lame" Ullmark in net and rode him like a rented mule. It was obvious Ullmark was a having a physical problem. A healthy Sway sat on the bench.

I like our goalies a lot, but that loss is on Monty. Hope he learns from his mistakes.

They basically were swept by a great team that was tougher then Bruins

Anyone watching last season is a fool wasting their time

Fool me once shame on me fool me twice shame on you

Tape the games and if they win watch after Cup parade

Also Sam Bennett is a God

135 points means nothing

 

[GordonHowe]

Why Tuukka Rask practiced with the Bruins on Thursday morning

Bruins legend Tuukka Rask made a surprise appearance during Boston's morning skate on Thursday, serving as an emergency backup goalie.

www.boston.com

 

[The Storm]

They basically were swept by a great team that was tougher then Bruins

Anyone watching last season is a fool wasting their time

Fool me once shame on me fool me twice shame on you

Tape the games and if they win watch after Cup parade

Also Sam Bennett is a God

135 points means nothing

Your point about toughness is valid. I have the same concerns with this current team. Also, rotate the goalies in the playoffs. Why change what works? Goaltending is the strength of this team.

They still have nobody that will stand up to Tkachuck. He is going to abuse Gryz in the playoffs.

 

[Kegs]

Your point about toughness is valid. I have the same concerns with this current team. Also, rotate the goalies in the playoffs. Why change what works? Goaltending is the strength of this team.

They still have nobody that will stand up to Tkachuck. He is going to abuse Gryz in the playoffs.

Hard to stand up to a guy who hides behind the refs.

 

[The don godfather]

Liam foudy on waivers. Intriguing Donny should put a claim.