Speculation: 2023-24 Free Agency/Trade Thread II

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WhatTheDuck

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No rush here to run him out of town by any means, but if we are putting together a package needing a young NHL player to add an upgrade, I think Lacombe is perhaps our most obvious candidate. He has upside, should have value and arguably more value to a team that doesn't have two young LHD ahead of him in the pecking order. If a team is forced to move a good player due to cap reasons, a cheap young NHL D would be a great start.
 

cheesymc

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No rush here to run him out of town by any means, but if we are putting together a package needing a young NHL player to add an upgrade, I think Lacombe is perhaps our most obvious candidate. He has upside, should have value and arguably more value to a team that doesn't have two young LHD ahead of him in the pecking order. If a team is forced to move a good player due to cap reasons, a cheap young NHL D would be a great start.
How dare you... Beevis is untouchable!
 

cheesymc

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I know I'm getting ahead of myself and we should wait until after the draft (still dreaming for Celebrini). But looking at the UFAs I really don't think we have a chance to sign any real impact players and we have to accept that we will be overpaying for lower tier players.

It looks like we will be looking to add at least one RH RW/C and one RHD.

How would we rank the lower tier RH forwards, and would it actually be an upgrade helping us get out of the bottom 10? I think these three are the most realistic options (and I'm looking at players who could potentially play on a line with Zegras and Cutter):

- Lafferty: Plays with a good motor, good skater, consistent intensity, can play all forward positions like Rico, has some history being above average on faceoffs, good on PK. Limited offensively, has a bit of an injury history.
- Stenlund: Good size, has been winning 53% of his faceoffs the past two years, only 27 years old. Not physical for his size.
- Noesen: Has decent size and competes well, power play specialist that we need, effective scorer in limited minutes. Older at 31, always been a slow skater, below average defensively.

I can't see Pesce, Montour, or Hronek coming to a bottom feeder team, and big boys Dillon, Zadorov, Hakanpaa will have a ton of suitors that are contenders or good teams that are willing to overpay. Walker, Demelo, Tanev, Carrier are good players but don't have the size that we need. So 2nd tier RHD or defensemen that can play on the right side with size:

- Edmundson: profile of the player we need, physical defensive dman, still fairly young. But has a bad injury history that regressed his play.
- Desharnais: Enormous player, maybe a Hakanpaa 2.0, paid his dues and is dominant in the AHL. Only limited to 15 minutes a game so how would he do playing more?
- McDermid: One of the top enforcers, still fairly young. Terrible skill level but could be a good stop gap who defers puck movement to someone like Zellweger.
- Roy: Probably the most expensive option, decent size, decent two-way. Nothing stands out, not physical or offensive, just steady.

But even if we sign two of these players, what is the real likelihood we improve? That is what is worrisome. Maybe get out of the bottom 5-6 next year? Still going to be a sad situation I think if we not upgrade our coaching and get past the number of injuries our team has had to overcome, and how do we address the lopsided penalties that we receive?
 
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Reveille1984

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I think trading for a second pairing RHD is a more likely option at this point than grabbing someone in free agency, but who knows what Verbeek is thinking. The cap is supposed to go up by $4M+ as well which means teams are going to have more cash to throw around on UFAs. We have a ton of picks, players, and cap space to work with.

Some assistant coaching changes, better health, and a little more stability on the back end and in the top six should steer the ship in a more positive direction at least. At this point it's less about playoff potential than it is just shoring up fundamentals and building some identity and respectability for a very young team. Some incremental improvement.

Even for a rebuilding team at the lowest of lows, running it back with the same group next year and telling the kids "we're permanent shit until you carry us from the depths of obscurity" is also not really a sustainable plan. Especially on D, these guys are just too green. Especially if we're also planning to implant Luneau into the mix while also keeping Minty/Zellweger/LaCombe around.
 
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Hockey Duckie

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But even if we sign two of these players, what is the real likelihood we improve? That is what is worrisome. Maybe get out of the bottom 5-6 next year? Still going to be a sad situation I think if we not upgrade our coaching and get past the number of injuries our team has had to overcome, and how do we address the lopsided penalties that we receive?

I agree with all the concerns in orange highlights.

Lopsided penalties.
I think a huge factor for the lopsided penalties are having more youths and less talented players on the roster. We can see the differences between 2021-22 season with the last two seasons.

2021-22: Anaheim had the 11th least amount of TSH events with 224 PK's and allowed only 43 goals against. We were 3rd in the Pacific at all-star break, when Verbeek took over as GM. We had a good mix of youths, vets, and talented vets.

2022-23: The roster makeup was abysmal as we barely got over the salary floor before the season started. Everyone on the blueline except Fowler was replaced the next season, that's how bad the roster was. That team had the 5th most amount of TSH events with 280 PK's and allowed 78 goals against.

2023-24: The roster makeup was considerably better than last year's roster, but with a vast more youths with four first time NHL rookies (Carlsson, Minty, LaCombe, Luneau) and two recurring NHL rookies (Dostal, Groulx). At ES, the team has given up far fewer goals against than last year's teams, especially before the TDL, but they ranked 1st most amount of TSH events with 281 PK's and 75 goals against in only 70 games! We have surpassed the TSH events than last year's team!

A combination of better coaching at discipline, the youths improving, and not playing through injuries can help reduce the TSH events next year. I think the org is making players work too much with heavy training between games, a full skate before a game, and playing through injuries that their minds work faster than their bodies in a game. Then that's when sloppy penalties occur.

Special Teams coaching
  • 2021-22
    • PP: Ward, Brown
    • PK: Stothers
  • 2022-23
    • PP: Brown
    • PK: Stothers
  • 2023-24
    • PP: Brown
    • PK: Thompson

Ducks 2021-22 STSplits
Game SetGamesPPGPPOPP EffPK GATSHPK Eff
Total824821921.9%4322480.8%
1 to 3333239025.6%128585.9%
34 to 6229198522.4%178980.9%
63 to 82 (TDL)2064413.6%145072.0%


Ducks 2022-23STSplits
Game SetGamesPPGPPOPP Eff.PK GATSHPK Eff
Total823622915.7%7828072.1%
1 to 2525127216.7%318965.2%
26 to 4924116417.2%178179.0%
50 to 611253613.9%104477.3%
62 to 82 (TDL)2185714.0%206669.7%


Ducks2023-24STSplits
Game SetGamesPPGPPOPP Eff.PK GATSHPK Eff
Total703820918.2%7528173.3%
1 to 2525188122.2%2211080.0%
26 to 4924107114.1%229175.8%
50 to 621383522.9%164766.0%
63 to 70 (TDL)82229.1%153354.5%


At each TDL, we can see a drop in PK efficiency because we've traded defensemen each time. The PP also dropped in efficiency except last year, where we didn't have much talent to begin with. We can say talent matters in improving the Special Teams.

2021-22 TDL: D Lindholm, D Manson, and F Des. All three are PK'ers. F Rakell is on the PP.
2022-23 TDL: D Kulikov and D Klingberg. Kulikov is the PK'er; Klingberg is on the PP.
2023-24 TDL: D Lyubushkin, F Rico, and F Carrick. All three are PK'ers. Rico is also on the PP.

When we do splits for the season, we can see trends to help us see if the coaching is improving or deteriorating. The 2021-22 assistant coaches were amazing until the rug got pulled out from under them at the TDL. Game set 34-62 was when injuries started occurring to our top-3 D-men in Lindholm, Fowler, and Manson.

The following season, Ward left the org due to personal reasons. Brown was not the head of the 2021-22 PP explosion. Brown needed to be fired, but wasn't. (I advocated for Brown to be fired after that season!) Stothers was able to improve the moribund blueline Verbeek gave him until the TDL.

This season, Brown had more talent to work with. The problem is Brown relied on those talent to produce to make up for a bland PP system, which is why we see inconsistencies in the splits. New PK coach Thompson becomes more abysmal as the season progresses.

I know PP coach Brown should be fired. PK coach Thompson should also follow suit, but I think Verbeek will give him another year.

Injuries

Aside from forcing young players to play through injuries in a development season, I'm kinda stumped. Is our org making our player do too much, overexerting their bodies by doing full practices before a game or working out hard in between the games while not having proper rest periods? The novel program for Carlsson is just that, a novelty and it shouldn't be repeated; best to let the youths marinate in a lower level to properly build their bodies so they can handle the NHL level. Maybe we need better trainers? Maybe we should introduce hot yoga? I've seen NFL players do that.

With Z and Drysdale, I think that's all on Verbeek that both players missed training camp. Training camp is a necessary step between off-season and the regular season start. Hopefully, Verbeek will learn his lesson and get contracts done long before training camp starts so everyone's on the same page.
 

MMC

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With Z and Drysdale, I think that's all on Verbeek that both players missed training camp. Training camp is a necessary step between off-season and the regular season start. Hopefully, Verbeek will learn his lesson and get contracts done long before training camp starts so everyone's on the same page.
Putting blame on either the player or the front office for a holdout is pretty lame. It’s simply an unfortunate reality of multi million dollar contract negotiations that happens every year in every sport. Was it all on BM that both Lindholm and Rakell went unsigned into the season in 2016-17?
 

Rybread86

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With Z and Drysdale, I think that's all on Verbeek that both players missed training camp. Training camp is a necessary step between off-season and the regular season start. Hopefully, Verbeek will learn his lesson and get contracts done long before training camp starts so everyone's on the same page.

So no amount of blame gets put on the players or agents for holding out? Negotiations are a 2-way street. Also, negotiations are Solomons territory.
 
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Hey234

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I wonder if PV will revisit Kakko in the summer. If the rumored proposal around the deadline involving Henrique and Vatrano was accurate, it seems like he had interest and I don't see why that would change by the draft/summer.

I could see PV trading Edmonton's 1st for Kakko. I'm not saying I necessarily would. But it would make sense.
 

CrazyDuck4u

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IMO Mintyukov compares closer to Sergei Zubov for those of you old enough to remember him. Open question whether he achieves that potential but the signs are good so far.
Oh yah zubog was a beast. Better yet fetisov
 

Rasp

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I wonder if PV will revisit Kakko in the summer. If the rumored proposal around the deadline involving Henrique and Vatrano was accurate, it seems like he had interest and I don't see why that would change by the draft/summer.

I could see PV trading Edmonton's 1st for Kakko. I'm not saying I necessarily would. But it would make sense.
He has said he wants to get a RW and Kakko makes sense. Would be nice to get but I would prefer to keep the 1st and trade something else.
 
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CrazyDuck4u

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All Mighty

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Another potential UFA RW option could be Elias Lindholm. His stock has fallen dramatically since the trade and he could be a decent fit for us if his market shrinks and his price comes down. Of course, a team that views him as a top 6 center should outbid whatever we would offer him, but it is a situation I would monitor. He is also defensively responsible and can take center duties if need be. Again, I would assume there are a few teams out there desperate for a center that we can’t compete with, but he’s a (small) possibility. He was originally looking for around $8M+, but if he comes down to $5-6M, I could have interest. Or if he wants to rebuild his value for a year, I’d give him an inflated number.
 

MMC

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Random thought, does a deal around Gibby for Laine make any sense at all?
1. I would not trade Gibson for Laine straight up.
2. Both have NTCs, I could maybe see Laine waiving for us but I do not at all see Gibson waiving for Columbus, unless like Gaudreau he just wants to be back in the Eastern US
 

DavidBL

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1. I would not trade Gibson for Laine straight up.
2. Both have NTCs, I could maybe see Laine waiving for us but I do not at all see Gibson waiving for Columbus, unless like Gaudreau he just wants to be back in the Eastern US
Just don't like Laine? He just seems like maybe the most likely available RW.
 

slippingsloth

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I dont have much interest in Laine either although if it meant Gibson contract the other way that would make it more palatable. I am ok with Dostal as a starter going forward.

Would rather Necas for Vatrano/Oilers 1st and bprospect or 2nd?
 

MMC

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I dont have much interest in Laine either although if it meant Gibson contract the other way that would make it more palatable. I am ok with Dostal as a starter going forward.

Would rather Necas for Vatrano/Oilers 1st and bprospect or 2nd?
I don't agree with the mindset that we HAVE to move Gibson, honestly I don't know where it even stems from. Even if Dostal becomes the starter if the trade of Gibson isn't one that seriously helps the team, there's no reason to not just keep him as the 1B.
 

slippingsloth

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I don't agree with the mindset that we HAVE to move Gibson, honestly I don't know where it even stems from. Even if Dostal becomes the starter if the trade of Gibson isn't one that seriously helps the team, there's no reason to not just keep him as the 1B.

That is fair. I am not on the mindset of having to move JGibson, just if you swapped Laine for 2 years for Gibson contract it is more palatable to me.

I honestly dont see anyone taking Gibby. And I am ok with that. Dosy + gibby is fine.
 

DavidBL

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I don't agree with the mindset that we HAVE to move Gibson, honestly I don't know where it even stems from. Even if Dostal becomes the starter if the trade of Gibson isn't one that seriously helps the team, there's no reason to not just keep him as the 1B.
I actually don't think we have to move Gibby either, it just struck me as 2 questionable contracts that both teams may wish to move on from. Even then I'm not sure the Ducks actually do. Mostly I just see Laine as a RW with goal scoring pedigree who might actually be attainable unlike most other guys that have been discussed here.
 
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Hockey Duckie

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Putting blame on either the player or the front office for a holdout is pretty lame. It’s simply an unfortunate reality of multi million dollar contract negotiations that happens every year in every sport. Was it all on BM that both Lindholm and Rakell went unsigned into the season in 2016-17?

Different situations. The 2016-17 team was a far better roster, which was better equipped to absorb any slow starts from Lindholm and Rakell. And yes, it was on BM that both went unsigned into the 2016-17 season.

This year's hold outs had Drysdale miss most of last season. His presence for training camp should have been a higher priority. Luckily, we had talent to cover for Drysdale, but we had no one for Z.

Using training camp as part of the bargaining tool is stupid, but it happens. It's the GM's job to get all of their players signed before training camp, regardless of the sport. Why absolve that duty? Guess you put no blame for the team to be incomplete before training and through training camp, especially for a rebuilding team. What other GM duties should be absolved?
 

Gliff

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I dont have much interest in Laine either although if it meant Gibson contract the other way that would make it more palatable. I am ok with Dostal as a starter going forward.

Would rather Necas for Vatrano/Oilers 1st and bprospect or 2nd?
Keep dreaming sweet prince.
 

JAHV

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I dont have much interest in Laine either although if it meant Gibson contract the other way that would make it more palatable. I am ok with Dostal as a starter going forward.

Would rather Necas for Vatrano/Oilers 1st and bprospect or 2nd?
I would also rather do that, but there's no way that gets Necas. The Ducks are probably looking at the Oilers 1st, Zellweger/Luneau, and one other minor asset.
 
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