Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Yummyshark]

If you're flipping a coin and getting a 50/50 split on heads/tails and then get 4 tails in a row, the odds of another tail is 3.125%

End of story.

I think he's just trolling here, there's no way he actually believes this.

 

[Gecklund]

Well, I tried. Good luck to you all.

You’re missing the key point of the equation that the first 4 flips were already made. This isn’t what are the chances all 5 flips are heads or tails, it’s AFTER the first 4 flips have been made, what are the chances the next one is heads? Which is clearly 50/50

You are calculating the odds that all 5 are heads.

 

[TheBeard]

I think he's just trolling here, there's no way he actually believes this.

I think there's a 3.125% chance he actually believes this.

 

[hockeyCEO]

I think he's just trolling here, there's no way he actually believes this.

No, I'm not trolling. There's nothing I can do further. Reading these replies informs me well enough.

 

[hockeyball]

You’re missing the key point of the equation that the first 4 flips were already made. This isn’t what are the chances all 5 flips are heads or tails, it’s AFTER the first 4 flips have been made, what are the chances the next one is heads? Which is clearly 50/50

You are calculating the odds that all 5 are heads.

This trips up so many people its kind of funny. I was trying to explain this to my kids the other day and it was like I was trying to explain quantum mechanics or something. They just could not wrap their heads around it at all.

Best way I got through to them is to say "So if I flipped a coin 10 times today that would mean anytime someone flips a coin from that point forward their odds are entirely determined by those previous 10 flips right?" "well, no that doesn't make sense" "exactly!"

Every flip has a 50/50 chance (not exactly, but theoretically at least) and what has or has not landed previously has no bearing on it because each flip is it's own system. If you expand the system out to say "what are my odds of getting 8 heads out of 10 flips" then your system is 10 flips so the odds are calculated based on that, but still each flip in that system has a 50/50 chance.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Folks, some sympathy. He's a CEO. They can't be expected to know basic mathematics. Otherwise they wouldn't be CEOs...

 

[Yummyshark]

I think there's a 3.125% chance he actually believes this.

I just polled 4 other hockey CEOs and they all believed this. Therefore the chance that hockeyCEO believes this is indeed only 3.125%.

 

[Lebanezer]

Math isn’t real.

 

[rsteen]

Folks, some sympathy. He's a CEO. They can't be expected to know basic mathematics. Otherwise they wouldn't be CEOs...

A hockey CEO as well. Hockey players often have difficult counting to five, thus resulting in a too many men penalty. Mathematics is not their strong suit.

 

[Mafoofoo]

Why is everyone talking about math on a hockey forum? The draft lottery will be determined by an arm wrestling match between Grier and Davidson

 

[TheBeard]

This is what happens when an outsider comes in and tries to out-math a downtrodden and emotionally beaten fanbase not knowing we spend almost every minute calculating the odds of when we clinch last and how favorable it is number-wise to win the lotto in 2028.

 

[Patty Ice]

No reason to gang up on the guy and mock him. It's not like he is being malicious in his posts.

 

[fasterthanlight]

Guy is so bad at math, some non-member lurker got mad enough to make an account to correct him.

Cunningham's law: "The best way to get the right answer on the Internet is not to ask a question; it's to post the wrong answer."

 

[fasterthanlight]

No reason to gang up on the guy and mock him. It's not like he is being malicious in his posts.

yeah I feel a bit bad for piling on; I didn't see the all of the other 12 posts correcting the poster before posting my pile on. Sorry @hockeyCEO ; you are welcome here and I am sorry <3

 

[Grinner]

So get off your ath, let's do some math.

 

[Star Platinum]

The only thing I want to contribute here is that due to all of the discussions about probability, I am utterly convinced we will finish last, yet somehow end up with the fifth pick anyway.

 

[Patty Ice]

The only thing I want to contribute here is that due to all of the discussions about probability, I am utterly convinced we will finish last, yet somehow end up with the fifth pick anyway.

Now THAT'S Sharks hockey.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Why is everyone talking about math on a hockey forum? The draft lottery will be determined by an arm wrestling match between Grier and Davidson

Unironically this would rock.

 

[hockeyCEO]

As Groucho Marx would say "who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"

Declare heads or tails. Take out a quarter and flip it five times. If your side comes up on all five flips count it as a successful attempt. If not, count it as a failed attempt.

After 100 attempts, you will have 3 successful ones on average.

 

[Lebanezer]

This is what happens when an outsider comes in and tries to out-math a downtrodden and emotionally beaten fanbase not knowing we spend almost every minute calculating the odds of when we clinch last and how favorable it is number-wise to win the lotto in 2028.

He’s not an outsider though. He’s been here for a while.

 

[Lebanezer]

As Groucho Marx would say "who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"

Declare heads or tails. Take out a quarter and flip it five times. If your side comes up on all five flips count it as a successful attempt. If not, count it as a failed attempt.

After 100 attempts, you will have 3 successful ones on average.

Both things can be true. One flip is always 50/50, 5 in a row is 3.125%.

If this is what caused the confusion shame on everyone.

 

[TheBeard]

Well, try and look at it like this...

You see, the way I see it, normally if you go one on one with another tanking hockey team, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But Mike Grier is a genetic freak and he's not normal! So the Chicago Blackhawks have a 25%, AT BEST, at getting first overall. Then you add Nashville to the mix, Chicago's chances of winning drastically go down. See at the draft lotto, the Preds have a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but the Sharks got a 66. and 2/3 chance of winning because Kyle Davidson KNOWS he can't beat Grier and he's not even gonna try! So Barry Trotz, you take your 33 1/3 chance minus Chicago's 25% and Nashville has an 8 1/3 chance of winning the draft lotto. But then you take the Sharks 75 % chance of winning, if it was just those two teams, and then add 66 2/3 percent, the Sharks have a 141 and 2/3rds percent chance of winning the draft lotto.

See, Kyle Davison, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at the draft lotto.

 

[Jargon]

What the real question is what are the odds of flipping a coin and growing a tail?

What are the odds that two posters on the Sharks board make the same joke about tail growing probabilities?!

 

[OrrNumber4]

Well, try and look at it like this...

You see, the way I see it, normally if you go one on one with another tanking hockey team, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But Mike Grier is a genetic freak and he's not normal! So the Chicago Blackhawks have a 25%, AT BEST, at getting first overall. Then you add Nashville to the mix, Chicago's chances of winning drastically go down. See at the draft lotto, the Preds have a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but the Sharks got a 66. and 2/3 chance of winning because Kyle Davidson KNOWS he can't beat Grier and he's not even gonna try! So Barry Trotz, you take your 33 1/3 chance minus Chicago's 25% and Nashville has an 8 1/3 chance of winning the draft lotto. But then you take the Sharks 75 % chance of winning, if it was just those two teams, and then add 66 2/3 percent, the Sharks have a 141 and 2/3rds percent chance of winning the draft lotto.

See, Kyle Davison, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at the draft lotto.

This was a good one! Excellent bit!

 

[TheBeard]

This was a good one! Excellent bit!

It took a while.