Scott Wheeler has Will Smith fifth on his NHL prospects list even though Smith has been in the NHL all season and is sixth in rookie scoring because in his opinion, Smith is not established at the NHL level.
Yes, but have you considered that Smith belongs in the AHL and always will?
Oof, missed opportunity to capitalize Will there.
With all due respect to Scott Wheeler and the like, I find their projections tend to be very overly optimistic. Often, the "he projects" tends to be "this is his ceiling if things go well." I'm quite confident that if you counted the number of players he projects at any given roster spot, you'd find there aren't enough NHL spots at to accommodate all the players projected to earn such spots (e.g. there are only 32 NHL 3Cs at a given time but I'd bet that if all of his projections hit, there would be over 40 NHL 3Cs at a given time, contradicting the projections). I could be wrong but this is my general sentiment of prospect people over the years; they are far too optimistic and set player floors way too high.
I thought about Wennberg but wasn't sure how to compare NHL scoring rate to AHL. Same for a number of guys on this list, though I clearly missed some. JGP is an especially good counter example IMO. Others, I would consider more than 3Cs on this list, but I guess that's where the whole lable of "3C" gets subjective. Anyway, this is more of what I was looking for. Thx!
Thanks for taking the time to dig into this. I honestly am not familiar with 90% of the names on that list (which fits with your point I would imagine) but just looking at the 3 Sharks names on that list, neither Balcers nor Chartier were quite scoring at Bystedt's rate. And I think Chmelevski would make a fine 3C if he'd ever come back to the NHL, though I imagine that's a debatable opinion at best.
Wheeler's opinion certainly shouldn't be held up as gospel, but he's at least a somewhat-respected guy in the industry, I'd say, and I'd just seen that opinion of his, so I thought it was a good counter-point that offered up a fairly thoughtful perspective on Bystedt.
I like Frederic as a fit here, but there is no way you're moving Wennberg to 4C because of Trent Frederic (who is far more W than C).
Maybe Frederic - Wennberg - Toffoli 3rd line? That would look good on the paper.
That first point is super important. It's hard to convey that point without big flashing lights before every writeup that say "THESE ARE CEILINGS/FITS, NOT PROJECTIONS OR EXPECTATIONS". Prospect writers should do that more though.
Josh Frojelin had an article on it last month over on Sheng's site.
sanjosehockeynow.com
Josh Frojelin had an article on it last month over on Sheng's site.
Filip Bystedt on Track? NHL Scouts, John McCarthy on 1st-Round Pick’s Progress (+)
Is Filip Bystedt on track? When the San Jose Sharks selected Bystedt with the No. 27 pick in the first round of the 2022 Draft, the hope was that the 6-foot-3 Swede would develop into a middle-six two-way NHL center. That’s the role that he’s playing in his rookie AHL campaign with the San Jose […]
Not to steal too much of what's behind the paywall, but one scout was quoted as "Bystedt will be a good two-way third-line center in two years" and another agreed without much else to add.
There are critiques to his game as well rather than some puff piece for fans, but they're things not uncommon to 20 year olds that are tall/lanky/awkward as they develop. Biggest thing is he will need to get more physical, which will come with more NA ice experience and gaining strength as he grows into his frame (or it won't and he doesn't make it).
I would guess height - while a meme with some with regards to Grier and Hodge - would be a decent proxy for an underlying metric that correlates to a player that can get NHL games in a bottom six role.
We're not really looking to win the Stanley Cup in 2 years. I think having a Wennberg type player will be necessary, but the goal is to get our young centers the experience to where they become the stabilizing force. That will take games played to happen, and is why our real playoff window doesn't open until 2028 or so (barring some big time dealing in the next 18 months).
My concern is that Celebrini's prime/peak might start very soon. You want to maximize that window.
I agree. The goal should be to have a solid playoff team that could make a run during the last year of Celebrini and Smith’s ELC’s.
he’s only 18. When is he hitting his peak, 20?
at least give him 3-5 years.
20-21 wouldn't be unusual given his profile...he’s only 18. When is he hitting his peak, 20?
Really no precedent for elite players having an abrupt prime starting at like age 20.
