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Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

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coooldude said:
I do not think that Walman-Ceci + Ferraro-Liljegren are a competent bottom 4 for a playoff team. I think they are a borderline bottom 4 for a borderline wildcard team, and a weak bot4 for a playoff team. We should be so lucky.
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Yeah I do agree that bottom 4 would be fringe playoff and not cup contender but it would also be filled with 3 expiring contracts and Ceci so if they are out of contention they could also sell them off.

I also didn’t include any of the prospects except Graf. Assuming Dickinson and Schaefer the Sharks would just need some D to be just ok until those 2 are ready.

Sharkz4Fun said:
I've thought Granlund would be a good fit in Florida. Come to think of it, if MG could work some magic in his brothers city for a Granlund+ for Bennett deal with an extension, that would accelerate the rebuild 10 fold.
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Why would Florida trade Bennett mid season when they are firmly in the playoff picture?
 
gaucholoco3 said:
Yeah I do agree that bottom 4 would be fringe playoff and not cup contender but it would also be filled with 3 expiring contracts and Ceci so if they are out of contention they could also sell them off.

I also didn’t include any of the prospects except Graf. Assuming Dickinson and Schaefer the Sharks would just need some D to be just ok until those 2 are ready.


Why would Florida trade Bennett mid season when they are firmly in the playoff picture?
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Bennett is a ufa this offseason, so if they think they can't get him signed it might be best for business
 
Anyway, some interesting stats from Sheng. Could cross post to the Smith discussion for some things the numbers say he's doing well.

- Celebrini is near the top of league at zone entries, near the top of team in puck battles won. But at the bottom of team in successful pass% - the ones that do make it are top of team effective but he gives it up a lot.
- Smith creates shots off of his passes well and he goes to the net well. He loses a lot of puck battles.
- Walman and Ferraro are the best passers by pass success% and Ferraro is near the top of the league in puck battles won. I have to say, he's looked a lot better last 10 games or so.

More in article

www.nbcsportsbayarea.com

Evaluating how Sharks players are performing in eight key micro-stats

San Jose Hockey Now’s Sheng Peng evaluates how some Sharks players have performed in several key micro-stats.
www.nbcsportsbayarea.com www.nbcsportsbayarea.com
 
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Juxtaposer said:
Schaefer is going #1, book take that to the bank.

Statistically, 50% for Hagens or Misa seems absolutely right. 15% Schaefer, 50% Misa/Hagens, 30% Martone, 5% somebody else is how I'd put it at this point.
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I think Chicago goes Hagens for sure, views it as Toews/Kane 2.0 (hype not playing styles)

I think Seattle and Nashville both go high end forward as well.

Am i biased? Probably, but i do see worlds where teams who lack that future 1C value that over Schaefer. Especially a team lacking offence with Bedard.
 
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i
Celly4Celebrini said:
I think Chicago goes Hagens for sure, views it as Toews/Kane 2.0 (hype not playing styles)

I think Seattle and Nashville both go high end forward as well.

Am i biased? Probably, but i do see worlds where teams who lack that future 1C value that over Schaefer. Especially a team lacking offence with Bedard.
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All things being equal, Chicago, Nashville, NYI, Buffalo likely would probably prefer a forward. Anaheim, Seattle, and the Sharks would likely prefer a big smooth skating dman (though Anaheim is strong at LHD, none at Schaefer’s level). Philly would probably prefer a center, but need a franchise Dman as well. That being said, I don’t think it’s all that equal. Schaefer has been getting all the press to be the #1 player in the draft, though mono and the broken collarbone may minimize that a bit. I do think with a strong second half Hagens could close the gap, but I’d be very surprised to see Schaefer slip to third. As it is (or even with further regression) we’ll need lotto luck.

Somewhat bizarrely #1 OA dmen are usually top 4 but not elite guys. However; outside the #1 OA, the top Dman taken in a given draft is often excellent.


1991. Lindros/Falloon/Niedermayer/Lachance
1992. Hamrlik/Yashin/Rathje/Warriner
1993. Daigle/Pronger/Gratton/Kariya
1994. Jovo/Tverdosky/Bonk/Bonsignore
1995. Bernard/Redden/Berg/Kilger
1996. Phillips/Zyuzin/JP Dumont/Volchov
1997. Thornton/Marleau/Jokinen/Lou/Brewer (5th)
1998. Lecavalier/Legwand/Stuart/Allen
1999. Stefan/Sedin/Sedin/Brendl/Mezei (10th)
2000. Dipietro/Heatley/Gaborik/Kesla
2001.Kovalchuk/Spezza/Svitov/Weiss/Komarisek (7th)
2002. Nash/Lehtonen/Jbouw/Pitkanen
2003. Fleury/Staal/Zherdev/Horton/Suter (7th)
2004. Ovy/Malkin/Barker/Ladd
2005. Crosby/Ryan/Jack Johnson/Pouliot
2006. EJ/Staal/Toews/Backstrom
2007. Kane/JVR/Turris/Hickey
2008. Stamkos/Doughty/Bogo/Pietro
2009. Tavares/Hedman/Duchene/Kane
2010. Hall/Seguin/Gundbransson/Johansen
2011. Hopkins/Landeskog/Huberdeau/Larsson
2012. Yakupov/Murray/Galyenchuk/Reinhardt
2013. Mackinnon/Barkov/Druoin/Jones
2014. Ekblad/Reinhardt/Draisaitl/Bennett
2015. McDavid/Eichel/Hanifin/Strome
2016. Matthews/Laine/Dubois/Puljujarvi/Juolevi (5th)
2017. Hischier/Patrick/Heiskanen/Makar
2018. Dahlin/Schevchnikov/Kotkaniemi/B. Tkachuk
2019. Hughes/Kaako/Dach/Byram
2020. Lafreniere/Byfeld/Stuzle/Raymond/Sanderson (5th)
2021. Power/Beniers/McTavish/Hughes
2022. Slafovsky/Nemec/Cooley/Wright
2023. Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli/Smith/Reinbacher (5th)
2024. Celebrini/Levshunov/Sennecke/Lindstrom
 
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Celly4Celebrini said:
I think Chicago goes Hagens for sure, views it as Toews/Kane 2.0 (hype not playing styles)

I think Seattle and Nashville both go high end forward as well.

Am i biased? Probably, but i do see worlds where teams who lack that future 1C value that over Schaefer. Especially a team lacking offence with Bedard.
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I think it's basically going to come down to one of the forwards forcing the issue. I agree that if Schaefer and one of the forwards are considered to be equal, the teams you listed would choose the forward. But right now, I believe (and it seems like NHL scouts believe) that Schaefer is the clear-cut BPA.

Hagens, Misa, or Martone would have to take another big step this spring to get to his level.

The potentially saving grace with Chicago is that they did choose need over BPA last summer when they chose Levshunov over Demidov. My hope is that they'll go best forward available no matter what because they have one million defense prospects and they know this is their last realistic chance to find Bedard an elite running mate.
 
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Trading Ferraro is the first step towards building a whole new look for next season. He is the only piece that went through only the losing years, and I think a fresh start for him and the team is very important.

Also give Celebrini "A" next year and give him the lead, I believe that will spark a whole new attitude.
 
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Juxtaposer said:
I think it's basically going to come down to one of the forwards forcing the issue. I agree that if Schaefer and one of the forwards are considered to be equal, the teams you listed would choose the forward. But right now, I believe (and it seems like NHL scouts believe) that Schaefer is the clear-cut BPA.

Hagens, Misa, or Martone would have to take another big step this spring to get to his level.

The potentially saving grace with Chicago is that they did choose need over BPA last summer when they chose Levshunov over Demidov. My hope is that they'll go best forward available no matter what because they have one million defense prospects and they know this is their last realistic chance to find Bedard an elite running mate.
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Not to mention, there's a decent chance we'd need 2 (or even 3) teams to opt for a forward. If we end up 2nd post-lottery, I'd say it's a coin flip, but if we end up third I'd say it's closer to a 10-20% chance of getting Schaefer. Chicago, NYI, Nashville, and Buffalo are the most likely to go F, but if two of those team's end up ahead of us, I'd be surprised to see both pick a forward.
 
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I cant see Grier bringing a small forward in, we know the team already lacks some size up front. I think he just wants a few picks for whomever he can get rid of at this point.
 
matt trick said:
Not to mention, there's a decent chance we'd need 2 (or even 3) teams to opt for a forward. If we end up 2nd post-lottery, I'd say it's a coin flip, but if we end up third I'd say it's closer to a 10-20% chance of getting Schaefer. Chicago, NYI, Nashville, and Buffalo are the most likely to go F, but if two of those team's end up ahead of us, I'd be surprised to see both pick a forward.
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IMO Martone is 4/4. Im not sure theres any scenario he goes top 3. So i think at 4, yea its Martone (or maybe Jackson Smith. I think if im SJ i do try and trade down to 5-6 for Smith and let a NYI/Buffalo take Martone)

Personally i think us and Chicago are almost guaranteed to be bottom 2 locks, but im not sure we outtank them. Ideally they pick 1 and we pick 2, but we could also jump them which wouldnt hurt.
 
Juxtaposer said:
I think it's basically going to come down to one of the forwards forcing the issue. I agree that if Schaefer and one of the forwards are considered to be equal, the teams you listed would choose the forward. But right now, I believe (and it seems like NHL scouts believe) that Schaefer is the clear-cut BPA.

Hagens, Misa, or Martone would have to take another big step this spring to get to his level.

The potentially saving grace with Chicago is that they did choose need over BPA last summer when they chose Levshunov over Demidov. My hope is that they'll go best forward available no matter what because they have one million defense prospects and they know this is their last realistic chance to find Bedard an elite running mate.
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They also have Vlasic/Korchinksi/Allan on the left side that they've used 1st or 2nd rounders on recently and have played NHL hockey for them. Not that any of those necessarily preclude you from another D-Man, it's just more that they have already invested and seen some return on D that makes me think they'll look for a center to tandem with Bedard if given the chance.

I could see them also go Martone simply because their forward group is so small. Bedard, Nazar, and Moore are all 5'10 or smaller which gives a clear need for some size up front for a guy like Martone. More I think about it, the less likely it is that I see Chicago taking a D-Man that missed 3 months with a collarbone over one of the forwards. Particularly with the outcry of "Bedard has no help" from their fanbase online.
 
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Star Platinum said:
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Ceci is a no-brainer to move at the deadline for whatever the best offer is. Ferraro is one that might be a little more difficult with the extra year. I'm one of those I'll take pretty much anything to move Ferraro so that the younger defensemen get more of an opportunity but the team doesn't have to value him that way if they don't want to. They could value him in the sense that they don't want to move Ferraro unless they're getting a 1st round pick caliber asset back even if that means them adding a 3rd round pick to Ferraro to get it done. I have no idea what's out there for them but for Ferraro and Granlund, if someone is offering a 1st, I'd have a hard time passing up that kind of deal.
 
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Aside from Provorov, who may not get moved, is there a rental right sided d-man better than Ceci? Provorov is left handed, but does play right. Anderson is better, but has multiple years left. Same for Connor Murphy, though Chicago could retain getting him down to a very cheap $2.2M. Amongst UFAs, Kovacevic isn't going anywhere, and Ceci is better than Borgen and Savard. Can't imagine CBJ let's Fabbro walk given Werenski is having a Norris caliber season with him as his partner.

I'd be disappointed if Ceci didn't bring back a 2nd. Everyone is looking for D depth, but especially on the right side. Wouldn't be surprised if Ferraro got a 2nd as well.
 
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matt trick said:
Aside from Provorov, who may not get moved, is there a rental right sided d-man better than Ceci? Provorov is left handed, but does play right. Anderson is better, but has multiple years left. Same for Connor Murphy, though Chicago could retain getting him down to a very cheap $2.2M. Amongst UFAs, Kovacevic isn't going anywhere, and Ceci is better than Borgen and Savard. Can't imagine CBJ let's Fabbro walk given Werenski is having a Norris caliber season with him as his partner.

I'd be disappointed if Ceci didn't bring back a 2nd. Everyone is looking for D depth, but especially on the right side. Wouldn't be surprised if Ferraro got a 2nd as well.
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Yeah I think between Ferraro, Ceci, and Granlund they have 3 players that should return a 2nd. Hopefully they can pay 3rd to up that to a 1st or combine two players to extract the 1st from a team.

I hope they move all 3. I would resign Ceci to a 2 year or less deal but I doubt he would go for that.
 
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matt trick said:
Aside from Provorov, who may not get moved, is there a rental right sided d-man better than Ceci? Provorov is left handed, but does play right. Anderson is better, but has multiple years left. Same for Connor Murphy, though Chicago could retain getting him down to a very cheap $2.2M. Amongst UFAs, Kovacevic isn't going anywhere, and Ceci is better than Borgen and Savard. Can't imagine CBJ let's Fabbro walk given Werenski is having a Norris caliber season with him as his partner.

I'd be disappointed if Ceci didn't bring back a 2nd. Everyone is looking for D depth, but especially on the right side. Wouldn't be surprised if Ferraro got a 2nd as well.
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Ceci is probably the best rental righty d-man but without a retention slot, Ceci is a tough pull for a 2nd round pick. We would probably need to take a cap dump with an extra year to get that in our current situation and I don't know if I'd want them to do that. We don't need to tie up another skater spot with an NHL contract next season. We have youth to incorporate and we need every available spot for getting the best at a spot we have available. I'd be okay with getting just a 3rd for Ceci given how Grier has been using them in his tenure.
 
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