Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Exactly, it's just a stopgap solution until Smith (or Hagens/Misa I guess) is ready to take over. Wouldn't hurt our chances at Gavin McKenna either.

There’s like a 50% chance we end up with one of Hagens/Misa at this point.

 

[Hodge]

Duchene is a better player than Granlund in every aspect and he wouldn't cost assets. If the goal is to rely solely on Celebrini and the first line to count for 90% of our scoring thus putting immense unfair pressure on the shoulders of our 19 year old then I guess Wennberg is the guy for the second line, but it's essentially the equivalent of asking Askarov to play a majority of the games behind our defense.

In order to convince Duchene to sign with the Sharks we would be forced to offer a risky long-term contract to a 34 year old who was just bought out 18 months ago. No thanks.

As for relying on Celebrini and the first line for 90% of our offense and asking Askarov to play a majority of games behind our defense...those things are going to happen next season regardless.

 

[TheBeard]

In order to convince Duchene to sign with the Sharks we would be forced to offer a risky long-term contract to a 34 year old who was just bought out 18 months ago. No thanks.

As for relying on Celebrini and the first line for 90% of our offense and asking Askarov to play a majority of games behind our defense...those things are going to happen next season regardless.

So you basically just wanna emulate the Blackhawks template and play the equivalent of Jason Dickson as your second line center.

Just say you wanna keep tanking and don't care about anything else.

 

[coooldude]

If we want to take a step forward next year (and I believe Grier does), the options are pretty simple for 2C:

1. Re-sign Granlund. Ideally 2 years at high AAV to max our options.
2. Trade Granlund for "whatever you can get", and sign a lateral move C FA such as Tavares, Duchene, Marchand, Bennett (none of whom seem that likely or good fit)
3. Same as 2 but Sign a top of class W FA who can play with Smith or Wennberg, such as Rantanen, Marner, Zucker, Benn, Palmieri, Boeser
4. Don't do 2 or 3, and fail to take a step forward, gunning for McKenna/Verhoeff/Bjorck/whoever and risk being stuck in bottom-out mode

Since 2/3 don't feel that realistic, it feels like 1 is the go, but I'm placing a fair bit of trust in Grier to get the right thing done.

 

[Hodge]

So you basically just wanna emulate the Blackhawks template and play the equivalent of Jason Dickson as your second line center.

Just say you wanna keep tanking and don't care about anything else.

I want the Sharks to win the Cup and I'm not sure aggressively upgrading the roster this offseason just to win 5 more games next year is a good way to achieve that goal when there's supposed to be a generational talent available at the top of the draft.

The Blackhawks' problem (one of many) is that Bedard isn't a 1C. He's not even a NHL center so they need more legit support down the middle.

 

[TheBeard]

I want the Sharks to win the Cup and I'm not sure aggressively upgrading the roster this offseason just to win 5 more games next year is a good way to achieve that goal when there's supposed to be a generational talent available at the top of the draft.

The Blackhawks' problem (one of many) is that Bedard isn't a 1C. He's not even a NHL center so they need more legit support down the middle.

Bringing in a competent 2C instead of throwing out 12 4th liners does more than "win 5 more games". It actually helps the younger players develop. Some of y'all literally only think about the on-ice result to define the value of certain players.

It seems every year we say "there's a generational talent on the horizon" and at some point we can't just keep reaching for that holy grail. Chicago's problem is they literally had no young talent at forward prior to Bedard. Reichel was never much and Nazar is basically it. Frankly, why they went Lev over Demidov is just another example of their incompetency. The reality for them is none of their prospects have done anything. They have absolutely no young talent on that team on the current roster. We're not great but outside of Bedard I don't think they have a forward as effective as even a Zetterlund.

 

[sharski]

sell Granlund for whatever we can get, preferably to a team with a decent chance at a cup

then find the next Granlund

trust the process

 

[matt trick]

I think the team needs a lot more time developing the young players they've been bringing in before worrying about replacing a specific role that Granlund fills currently. If Grier's statements about the team being far off are genuine then it should apply to Granlund like it did to Blackwood in terms of getting value for an expiring contract and continuing to invest into the team's future. We still need to develop a few forwards, especially a 2C, and we still need to develop an entire crop of defensemen and we don't have an RHD in the fold of this nature. A lot of these spots will require time and opportunity. We should just rent out what we can, give openings to developing young players where it makes sense, and fill any extra spots with free agents. I think it's reasonable to slot Wennberg into 2C if nobody else is able to take that spot then find a 3C to backfill if Bystedt isn't ready. I think we can get away with putting Vlasic on his final year on the 3RD if Thompson isn't ready or if Pohlkamp needs time. There's enough wiggle room to look at different solutions for Granlund's potential vacancy than a one for one veteran top six center swap.

Your comment on Grier’s statement on the team being far away is an important one. I think it’s more likely than not Granny is moved due to that.

However, I’d say failing to get another first round asset isn’t as big of a deal as not insulating Smith with two legit top 6 forwards next year. Perhaps Celebrini can thrive with Eklund and Kovalenko, leaving Zetts and Tolfolli. In that case we can live without Granny. And maybe Graf-Wenny-Kunin can be a good third line. However, going into next year with Smith, Kovalenko, Zetts, Graf, Wennberg, and Kunin would be a major concern. Grier’s done great with acquiring NHL guys and he’ll have loads of cap space and $3M solving 1C and 1G, but I still wonder if keeping Granny would be better for our team.

If Grier can continue to deliver and has another first rounder to boot, that’d be awesome. Hopefully he can!

 

[Hodge]

Bringing in a competent 2C instead of throwing out 12 4th liners does more than "win 5 more games". It actually helps the younger players develop. Some of y'all literally only think about the on-ice result to define the value of certain players.

It seems every year we say "there's a generational talent on the horizon" and at some point we can't just keep reaching for that holy grail. Chicago's problem is they literally had no young talent at forward prior to Bedard. Reichel was never much and Nazar is basically it. Frankly, why they went Lev over Demidov is just another example of their incompetency. The reality for them is none of their prospects have done anything. They have absolutely no young talent on that team on the current roster. We're not great but outside of Bedard I don't think they have a forward as effective as even a Zetterlund.

We already brought in quality veterans to mentor the kids like Wennberg himself and Toffoli, Goodrow, Dellandrea, Ceci, etc. in contrast to the Blackhawks who brought in soft one-way empty calorie scorers like Hall, Bertuzzi and Teravainen. They're a huge part of why we're more competitive within games compared to last season.

I'm not saying don't replace Granlund at all but you have to be realistic and understand we're almost certainly not going to be able to replace him with a point-per-game center. Even extending Granlund doesn't guarantee that he continues producing at that clip since he's 33. It will be much more feasible to replace him with another Wennberg-level middle six center (maybe Andrew Copp as a cap dump we get paid for taking?)

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Your comment on Grier’s statement on the team being far away is an important one. I think it’s more likely than not Granny is moved due to that.

However, I’d say failing to get another first round asset isn’t as big of a deal as not insulating Smith with two legit top 6 forwards next year. Perhaps Celebrini can thrive with Eklund and Kovalenko, leaving Zetts and Tolfolli. In that case we can live without Granny. And maybe Graf-Wenny-Kunin can be a good third line. However, going into next year with Smith, Kovalenko, Zetts, Graf, Wennberg, and Kunin would be a major concern. Grier’s done great with acquiring NHL guys and he’ll have loads of cap space and $3M solving 1C and 1G, but I still wonder if keeping Granny would be better for our team.

If Grier can continue to deliver and has another first rounder to boot, that’d be awesome. Hopefully he can!

I don't think you have to choose between insulating Smith with two legit top 6 forwards and keeping Granlund though especially when Granlund isn't directly insulating Smith as it is now. I think if the intention is to have Smith start next season on the wing in a top six role, Eklund and Wennberg would be a suitable pairing to put with Smith while Celebrini takes all the top line responsibilities. But if we're going to get blue liners to develop for us, we'll need more especially on the right side and Granlund's rental return could very well be what puts us in a position to get one that works for our timeline.

I just don't see a good argument to turn down the rental option when it's there. We have very few options moving forward to get solid returns that will help the team in the future where those types of adds are what push rebuilds down the correct path. We'll see what happens. I don't expect that Granlund will return a 1st round pick but 2nd rounders are still valuable trade chips compared to an aging and expiring Granlund. I would be open to signing him in the offseason for three years or less but I don't see him as so valuable as a vet that it really makes a difference on how the young players develop. It's not something unique to him.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Your comment on Grier’s statement on the team being far away is an important one. I think it’s more likely than not Granny is moved due to that.

However, I’d say failing to get another first round asset isn’t as big of a deal as not insulating Smith with two legit top 6 forwards next year. Perhaps Celebrini can thrive with Eklund and Kovalenko, leaving Zetts and Tolfolli. In that case we can live without Granny. And maybe Graf-Wenny-Kunin can be a good third line. However, going into next year with Smith, Kovalenko, Zetts, Graf, Wennberg, and Kunin would be a major concern. Grier’s done great with acquiring NHL guys and he’ll have loads of cap space and $3M solving 1C and 1G, but I still wonder if keeping Granny would be better for our team.

If Grier can continue to deliver and has another first rounder to boot, that’d be awesome. Hopefully he can!

Well, let's see what we have.

Eklund-Celebrini-XXX
Kovalenko-Wennberg-Toffoli
Graf-Smith-Zetterlund
Kunin-Bystedt-Goodrow/Dellandrea/etc.

Something like Brock Boeser would be a great option if he'd be down to come over. Or go after Chris Kreider if the Rangers crash and burn. My point is that I actually kinda only think we need a good winger up front.

I also just kinda get the feeling that Granlund might want to move on.

 

[Star Platinum]

Wennberg at 2C would be awful. Dude has only topped 40 points once in over a decade and you want him to be the guy centering the second line on a team already desperate for offense? I'd rather just overpay for Matt Duchene

Wennberg at 2C would be a temporary role until Will Smith or potentially this year's #1 draft pick is ready to assume that role and it's nobody's first choice.

 

[TheBeard]

Wennberg at 2C would be a temporary role until Will Smith or potentially this year's #1 draft pick is ready to assume that role and it's nobody's first choice.

Then I would spend the last month or so focusing on Smith as a 2C once Granlund is traded and letting him sink or swim with Eklund and Toffoli (or Zetterlund).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Then I would spend the last month or so focusing on Smith as a 2C once Granlund is traded and letting him sink or swim with Eklund and Toffoli (or Zetterlund).

Keeping Granlund or not is not going to be the determining factor on whether we improve next year. What we do to address our blue line will make the biggest strides towards our viability as a competitive team. I don't know what the answers are there though.

But I fully agree with moving Smith back to the pivot to finish this season in that scenario.

 

[pappaf2]

If we want to take a step forward next year (and I believe Grier does), the options are pretty simple for 2C:

1. Re-sign Granlund. Ideally 2 years at high AAV to max our options.
2. Trade Granlund for "whatever you can get", and sign a lateral move C FA such as Tavares, Duchene, Marchand, Bennett (none of whom seem that likely or good fit)
3. Same as 2 but Sign a top of class W FA who can play with Smith or Wennberg, such as Rantanen, Marner, Zucker, Benn, Palmieri, Boeser
4. Don't do 2 or 3, and fail to take a step forward, gunning for McKenna/Verhoeff/Bjorck/whoever and risk being stuck in bottom-out mode

Since 2/3 don't feel that realistic, it feels like 1 is the go, but I'm placing a fair bit of trust in Grier to get the right thing done.

Good thing with option #1 is the sharks should have a retention slot open at that point so granny could be traded even with a high AAV contract since the sharks could retain some of his salary.

 

[TheBeard]

Keeping Granlund or not is not going to be the determining factor on whether we improve next year. What we do to address our blue line will make the biggest strides towards our viability as a competitive team. I don't know what the answers are there though.

But I fully agree with moving Smith back to the pivot to finish this season in that scenario.

Again, I'm not really that concerned with the competitive factor. I do believe that Grier's intent was to let the kids sort of simmer on the big club to get acclimated and then next year focus on really pushing them to be leaders. Just so happened Celebrini was far ahead of the expectation while I do believe Smith is slightly behind. I do feel like trading Granlund emphasizes that it's time for the kids to really show what they can do.

As for the blue line, it certainly wouldn't make sense next year to run it back with a bunch of aging vets (Ruuta, Vlasic, Ceci) and others that haven't shown to be much more than decent bottom pairing, meh middle pairing guys (Ferraro, Liljegren, Thrun). If Grier is going to do anything, it's make a move for a bonafide top 4/fringe top pairing guy like Dobson or Chuchryn or Miller.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

There’s like a 50% chance we end up with one of Hagens/Misa at this point.

personally i think its closer to 30% than 50%. I think Schaefer is the target, and we may not need 1 or 2 to do it. 4 is a bit iffier.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Again, I'm not really that concerned with the competitive factor. I do believe that Grier's intent was to let the kids sort of simmer on the big club to get acclimated and then next year focus on really pushing them to be leaders. Just so happened Celebrini was far ahead of the expectation while I do believe Smith is slightly behind. I do feel like trading Granlund emphasizes that it's time for the kids to really show what they can do.

As for the blue line, it certainly wouldn't make sense next year to run it back with a bunch of aging vets (Ruuta, Vlasic, Ceci) and others that haven't shown to be much more than decent bottom pairing, meh middle pairing guys (Ferraro, Liljegren, Thrun). If Grier is going to do anything, it's make a move for a bonafide top 4/fringe top pairing guy like Dobson or Chuchryn or Miller.

I largely agree. I'm just not sure where the defenseman or defensemen are going to come from. The kind we're looking for are harder to acquire than the normal types of d-men that get traded during most offseasons. Like, we can reasonably expect fringe top four guys to be available and for the most part they would be upgrades on what we have but anchors to the top and second pairings are a little tougher to get, imo.

But even there, we have kids like Mukhamadullin and Thrun getting their chances now and we have Cagnoni, Dickinson, and Pohlkamp who could see opportunity sooner rather than later. And if we're in a position where drafting Schaefer makes sense, we have another player that's likely going to need significant time to develop into what we want out of them in that spot.

 

[TheBeard]

I largely agree. I'm just not sure where the defenseman or defensemen are going to come from. The kind we're looking for are harder to acquire than the normal types of d-men that get traded during most offseasons. Like, we can reasonably expect fringe top four guys to be available and for the most part they would be upgrades on what we have but anchors to the top and second pairings are a little tougher to get, imo.

But even there, we have kids like Mukhamadullin and Thrun getting their chances now and we have Cagnoni, Dickinson, and Pohlkamp who could see opportunity sooner rather than later. And if we're in a position where drafting Schaefer makes sense, we have another player that's likely going to need significant time to develop into what we want out of them in that spot.

I think Grier is probably going to go after buy-low candidates having down years like Miller or even Drysdale in Philly if he continues to stagnate.

 

[Juxtaposer]

personally i think its closer to 30% than 50%. I think Schaefer is the target, and we may not need 1 or 2 to do it. 4 is a bit iffier.

Schaefer is going #1, book take that to the bank.

Statistically, 50% for Hagens or Misa seems absolutely right. 15% Schaefer, 50% Misa/Hagens, 30% Martone, 5% somebody else is how I'd put it at this point.

 

[gaucholoco3]

There’s like a 50% chance we end up with one of Hagens/Misa at this point.

I hope the other 50% is Schaefer.

 

[Grinner]

I remember people thought Barabanov could fetch a 2nd

I really don’t think the trade value for Granlund is higher than that.

Barabanovs play dropped off the face of the earth

 

[gaucholoco3]

If we want to take a step forward next year (and I believe Grier does), the options are pretty simple for 2C:

1. Re-sign Granlund. Ideally 2 years at high AAV to max our options.
2. Trade Granlund for "whatever you can get", and sign a lateral move C FA such as Tavares, Duchene, Marchand, Bennett (none of whom seem that likely or good fit)
3. Same as 2 but Sign a top of class W FA who can play with Smith or Wennberg, such as Rantanen, Marner, Zucker, Benn, Palmieri, Boeser
4. Don't do 2 or 3, and fail to take a step forward, gunning for McKenna/Verhoeff/Bjorck/whoever and risk being stuck in bottom-out mode

Since 2/3 don't feel that realistic, it feels like 1 is the go, but I'm placing a fair bit of trust in Grier to get the right thing done.

Keeping Granlund or not is not going to be the determining factor on whether we improve next year. What we do to address our blue line will make the biggest strides towards our viability as a competitive team. I don't know what the answers are there though.

But I fully agree with moving Smith back to the pivot to finish this season in that scenario.

I can see an argument Grier for pushing the timeline and also an argument for one more painful year.

I agree with @Pinkfloyd that any big push to improve the forwards is a moot point if the D situation is not addressed.

If Grier decides he wants to make a big push immediately there are ways he can do it.

Throw 7x$12mil at Rantanen
Sign Ekblad 5x$8mil (Pionk could also be an option)
Re-Sign Ceci 3x$4 mil
Trade for Krieder as a pure cap dump
Resign Kunin 3x$3.5 mil
Spend $2-$3 million on a 1 or 2 year commitment to a 1B or high end backup goalie.

Eklund - Celebrini - Krieder
Zetterlund - Smith - Rantanen
Graf - Wenberg - Toffoli
Goodrow - Kunin - Kovalenko
Grundstrom, Dellandrea

Ferraro - Ekblad
Walman - Ceci
Muk - Liljegren
Thrun (Vlasic)

Askarov
Backup

I didn’t do the math but with Couture LTIR they should have space. There is also an option to buy out Vlasic if space is needed. I would also switch Muk and Ferraro once Muk shows he can handle it or it Dickinson or Schaefer shows they can handle NHL minutes.

Walman - Ceci
Ferraro - Liljegren

That is actually a very strong bottom 4 for a playoff team.

Schaefer is going #1, book take that to the bank.

Statistically, 50% for Hagens or Misa seems absolutely right. 15% Schaefer, 50% Misa/Hagens, 30% Martone, 5% somebody else is how I'd put it at this point.

I do think Chicago is likely to go Hagens as would Nashville as well. So I think 50% Schaefer would be realistic and 50% Hagens/Misa if they are dead last again.

 

[coooldude]

I can see an argument Grier for pushing the timeline and also an argument for one more painful year.

I agree with @Pinkfloyd that any big push to improve the forwards is a moot point if the D situation is not addressed.

If Grier decides he wants to make a big push immediately there are ways he can do it.

Throw 7x$12mil at Rantanen
Sign Ekblad 5x$8mil (Pionk could also be an option)
Re-Sign Ceci 3x$4 mil
Trade for Krieder as a pure cap dump
Resign Kunin 3x$3.5 mil
Spend $2-$3 million on a 1 or 2 year commitment to a 1B or high end backup goalie.

Eklund - Celebrini - Krieder
Zetterlund - Smith - Rantanen
Graf - Wenberg - Toffoli
Goodrow - Kunin - Kovalenko
Grundstrom, Dellandrea

Ferraro - Ekblad
Walman - Ceci
Muk - Liljegren
Thrun (Vlasic)

Askarov
Backup

I didn’t do the math but with Couture LTIR they should have space. There is also an option to buy out Vlasic if space is needed. I would also switch Muk and Ferraro once Muk shows he can handle it or it Dickinson or Schaefer shows they can handle NHL minutes.

Walman - Ceci
Ferraro - Liljegren

That is actually a very strong bottom 4 for a playoff team.




I do think Chicago is likely to go Hagens as would Nashville as well. So I think 50% Schaefer would be realistic and 50% Hagens/Misa if they are dead last again.

I like the thinking... I don't think Rantanen is realistic, I think he's likely to be re-signed in COL, but if not and we somehow land that fish... you have to play him with Celebrini. It will be far more of a fit since Celebrini has echoes of MacKinnon and those two play so damn well together.

If it's not him, which is likely, then it could be any number of the other W's I listed.

The only other quibble I have with your post (and I agree with you and PF that we need to improve the D if we're going to take any significant steps forward)... is that I do not think that Walman-Ceci + Ferraro-Liljegren are a competent bottom 4 for a playoff team. I think they are a borderline bottom 4 for a borderline wildcard team, and a weak bot4 for a playoff team. We should be so lucky.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

If we want to take a step forward next year (and I believe Grier does), the options are pretty simple for 2C:

1. Re-sign Granlund. Ideally 2 years at high AAV to max our options.
2. Trade Granlund for "whatever you can get", and sign a lateral move C FA such as Tavares, Duchene, Marchand, Bennett (none of whom seem that likely or good fit)
3. Same as 2 but Sign a top of class W FA who can play with Smith or Wennberg, such as Rantanen, Marner, Zucker, Benn, Palmieri, Boeser
4. Don't do 2 or 3, and fail to take a step forward, gunning for McKenna/Verhoeff/Bjorck/whoever and risk being stuck in bottom-out mode

Since 2/3 don't feel that realistic, it feels like 1 is the go, but I'm placing a fair bit of trust in Grier to get the right thing done.

Bennett is about as good a fit as possible out of any possible professional hockey player, but I don't think he leaves Florida so not sure if that's more importantly a possibility.

MG needs to sell on Granlund ASAP as soon as he starts putting numbers up again. If they re-sign him that definitely undoes much of the good he's done.

I've thought Granlund would be a good fit in Florida. Come to think of it, if MG could work some magic in his brothers city for a Granlund+ for Bennett deal with an extension, that would accelerate the rebuild 10 fold.