Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[OrrNumber4]

Player comparisons are challenging because you can see them in so many ways. If Smith's career has the same "value" as Marleau's (near HHOF), one should be pretty happy.

But if it follows similar beats (long maturation process, playoff struggles, excellent career but weak prime/peak), I'd understand some disappointment. I guess it'd be good for him to play 1500+ games in a Sharks's sweater...

 

[Star Platinum]

Well that Canucks game was frustrating as hell.

But the month of December has brought into sharp relief what should have been readily apparent before we had that nice little run after Celebrini returned. This roster stinks and we absolutely want another high draft pick to add to the mix. So absolutely trade every damn guy who will be a UFA for what you can get because more picks equals an even better prospect pool and more chances at getting guys who will be part of the next playoff team.

There are two things working in the Sharks favor that should make it a little easier for Grier to add better supporting players to next year's club.

One is that Celebrini being so good so soon will make it attractive to potentially more impactful wingers. Frankly, I'm not as high on Eklund as most of the forum is - he has his moments, but I think he's ultimately just a complementary winger. Two more wings that are better than Eklund/Zetterlund/Toffoli would push everyone down a peg and enable the team to maximize Celebrini's impact.

The second is Jake Walman. I think any defenseman in the league that thinks they deserve more minutes than they are getting with their current club are going to look at what a bigger role has done for Walman and think that if they come here on a short-term deal, they could cash in on it in a couple of years. Of course, if the Sharks can get someone that is already an established top pairing defenseman, they should absolutely do it, but that might be too big of an ask and the Sharks have to be careful not overpaying for OK, but not elite talent because that is what kills a rebuild.

Any bottom 6 grinders we have that we can unload should be cause none of these guys meaningfully impact the game defensively and should not be retained.

 

[coooldude]

But it's like you have to teach him to compete harder. A tale as old as time and some people have it and some don't. It's why coaches like torts exist. Smith is seemingly being coddled, and staying with Marleau certainly doesn't help. If they had torts coaching Smith probably has 15 games this year.

I don't disagree with this. He needs to learn how to compete harder.

Expectation was the wrong word, but I guess I'd just use hope since if you balanced it out between guys like pavs in the 7th round having crazy careers, a 4th OV F would easily be in the 1,000ish range.

Again, top 100 careers of all time is the 1000 point territory you're talking about. Celebrini has a shot at 1000 but nobody should just "easily" be in the 1,000 point range.

The type of player they need to compliment Celebrini for a winning team is exactly a Leonard/Gauthier type. Celebrini does not need someone to pass to him or to help someone pass to others on the 2nd line, he needs a PWF for not only his line, but in general to help sway games ala Malkin, or even Wilson.

Like I said, it's all hindsight. They drafted Smith without knowing they would have Celebrini, and the point is that I think time will show Smith is not a long term asset for this team and the quicker they realize that the better.

We need a 2C to complement Celebrini, and we also need a power winger like you're saying. If we had Leonard, or even freaking Michkov, we'd be saying "this is awesome, we still need a 2C". Avs are a great example of a team that has been struggling to find that elite 2C for years and it has continually hurt them. Kadri was it for their cup season but they've been searching for it since 2019.

And, we also need a 1D prospect. So yeah, we need a power winger who can score (Martone?) but if Smith figures it out, he could be an asset. It's too early to cut bait but it's definitely a struggle of a year. I've consistently said, if he doesn't take a big step to the 50-60s points next year ala Eklund, it'll be time to reconsider whether he's the 2/3 most important piece in the rebuild.

tldr you might be right in June 2026 but I wouldn't be declaring victory today.

 

[fasterthanlight]

If you would be disappointed by Smith having a similar individual career to marleau, you're wild. If we separate the question of never winning a cup, these are the 4th overall picks from 2000-2014

Klesla
Weiss
Pitkanen
Zherdev
Ladd
Pouliot
Backstrom
Hickey
Pietrangelo
E. Kane
Johansen
Larsson
Reinhart
Jones
Bennett

How many of those players would you take over marleau individually? I'm not even a big marleau fan, and I'd take him over all of those players

 

[OverTheLine]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the Marleau hate. He obviously was never going to take the team to the mountaintop as a first option, but he absolutely was a huge part of why we fielded such a competitive team all those years. What was it, four runs to the WCF and a Stanley Cup finals appearance? That's nothing to scoff at.

Hockey is the greatest sport on earth and it's also ruled to a significant degree by luck and by depth/team strength. This isn't basketball––the teams with the best two players don't always win. McDavid and Draisaitl have the same number of SCF appearance as Thornton and Marleau despite being a significantly stronger duo. If Smith ends up as good as Marleau he absolutely could be the #2 forward option on a cup winning team led by Macklin, depending of course on the strength of rest of the cast.

But that being said, I really don't think Smith will turn out to be as good as the second greatest player in our franchise history. But I'm also not sure we need him to be in order for us to win.

 

[Star Platinum]

But that being said, I really don't think Smith will turn out to be as good as the second greatest player in our franchise history. But I'm also not sure we need him to be in order for us to win.

 

[sampler]

I don't disagree with this. He needs to learn how to compete harder.

Again, top 100 careers of all time is the 1000 point territory you're talking about. Celebrini has a shot at 1000 but nobody should just "easily" be in the 1,000 point range.

We need a 2C to complement Celebrini, and we also need a power winger like you're saying. If we had Leonard, or even freaking Michkov, we'd be saying "this is awesome, we still need a 2C". Avs are a great example of a team that has been struggling to find that elite 2C for years and it has continually hurt them. Kadri was it for their cup season but they've been searching for it since 2019.

And, we also need a 1D prospect. So yeah, we need a power winger who can score (Martone?) but if Smith figures it out, he could be an asset. It's too early to cut bait but it's definitely a struggle of a year. I've consistently said, if he doesn't take a big step to the 50-60s points next year ala Eklund, it'll be time to reconsider whether he's the 2/3 most important piece in the rebuild.

tldr you might be right in June 2026 but I wouldn't be declaring victory today.

Its way way too early to declare anything long term about a 19 year old kid who was rushed to the NHL. It was clear to me from training camp that Smith was not an NHL player yet. very few players can jump from college to the NHL as a teenager and thrive. Celebrini is a major exception that proves the rule. Smith has shown flashes, but his consistency is far below, his decision making is subpar, and his compete is not enough. His misreads on the forecheck give teams easy exits and his ill advised passes up the center lead to odd man rushes against (celly had a Smith special tonight too). That said, he plays with his head up looking t make creative plays. He is dangerous with the puck on his stick for both teams.

BUT, hes 30 or so games into the NHL career at 19, so calling him some kind of bust is ridiculous. Right now, his ice time is being limited as his production is poor. Wars is no doubt on him, but the brain trust likely expected this and is pleasantly surprised about Mack. Next year will be the first real test. Ek played 9 games his draft season, wasnt ready, so they sent him back to europe. Then again in D+1 (Smith's current year.). However, unlike Eklund who was properly reassigned, they have improperly chosen to keep smith in the NHL rather than reassign him. As such, he will have to take major lumps including 10 mins or less of ice, healthy scratches, and all the predictable consequences of not being NHL ready.

Its a moot point, and I know it, but I still contend that Smith's long term development is better served playing 20 mins/night in the AHL on the top line, with top line responsibilities and leadership rather than 9-10 mins of ice with shlubs and still being minus. Hes pointless and -5 in his last 7 games, and is now getting 4th line mins after being a healthy scratch. Is that the best for his development? Maybe, but I dunno. Its alot of challenge for kid, so Wars is gunna have to walk a fine line between holding him accountable for what he needs to learn but also maintaining his confidence and belief.

I contend, it's not too late to send him down and bring up Graf, who has earned another look with his play. I would LOVE to see one of the Cuda (Gush, cards, bords, graf... whoever) step into a top 9 role, and just run with it. Those undiscovered gems are worth so much. How different is the conversation if Graf gets the call up and puts up 30 pts for the rest of the year. Of course, on the flip side, Smith does definitely help the tank with his ineptitude.

 

[sampler]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the Marleau hate. He obviously was never going to take the team to the mountaintop as a first option, but he absolutely was a huge part of why we fielded such a competitive team all those years. What was it, four runs to the WCF and a Stanley Cup finals appearance? That's nothing to scoff at.

Hockey is the greatest sport on earth and it's also ruled to a significant degree by luck and by depth/team strength. This isn't basketball––the teams best with the best two players don't always win. McDavid and Draisaitl have the same number of SCF appearance as Thornton and Marleau despite being a significantly stronger duo. If Smith ends up as good as Marleau he absolutely could be the #2 forward option on a cup winning team led by Macklin, depending of course on the strength of rest of the cast.

But that being said, I really don't think Smith will turn out to be as good as the second greatest player in our franchise history. But I'm also not sure we need him to be in order for us to win.

Smith and Marleau are completely different players so comparing them is wierd and wholly arbitrary.

Marleaud was a speedster and a shoot first scorer, who was the beneficiary of playing with one of the greatest passers the game has ever seen. perahps the most iconic pass in sharks history was Jumbo's no look backhander right to patty's tape. Patty was also pretty big. He was definitely a complimentary piece, not the driving force that Jumbo was...

Smith is much smaller, much slower, and nmuch more of a passer/playmaker. He can score goals of course, but his instincts are to pass first. I hope those instincts evolve as his reluctance to shoot hurts everyone.

If Smith became a marleau level producer, that would be a solid W. Its way too early in my mind to tell what he will become.

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Maybe we rushed Smitty and we're gonna pay for it in the future. Curtis Lazar 2.0 it feels

 

[sampler]

Maybe we rushed Smitty and we're gonna pay for it in the future. Curtis Lazar 2.0 it feels

This was my big worry, but its still so early. I'm also bummed they blew an ELC year too. He had an impressive 4 game stretch with 7 pts and +6, but in the other 25 games, he has just 4 pts (2 at EV) and a -18. He's obviously not NHL ready, but the big question and debate is: Does rushing a player to the NHL stunt their development comparing to playing a top line role in the AHL? or do the inevitable failures act as valuable teaching tools that lead to ultimate high level success down the road?

I don't know which is better for long term development: Taking the NHL lumps as we are seeing unfold, or playing the minors. I have no idea, but I would assign one of my analytics guys to look at all the past players and see if there is a difference, say, 3-5 years later. I bet there is a data-backed actual answer to this question.

 

[OrrNumber4]

If you would be disappointed by Smith having a similar individual career to marleau, you're wild. If we separate the question of never winning a cup, these are the 4th overall picks from 2000-2014

Klesla
Weiss
Pitkanen
Zherdev
Ladd
Pouliot
Backstrom
Hickey
Pietrangelo
E. Kane
Johansen
Larsson
Reinhart
Jones
Bennett

How many of those players would you take over marleau individually? I'm not even a big marleau fan, and I'd take him over all of those players

I would take Marleau's career, but when it comes to peak/prime, I'd probably take Backstrom, Pietrangelo, Reinhart, and Jones over Marleau.

 

[Shark Finn]

Many people say that Smith will definitely improve and be ready in 1-2 years, but this is just blind faith. Undoubtedly, he sees his partners well and is able to give a good pass. That's where his strengths end. I used to hope that he could become a second Logan Cooley for us, but that's not possible. Definitely not enough maneuverability and speed.

Oh, ok. Better inform Grier too. Trade him for a bag of.. well, just a bag. The team could really use one.

 

[karltonian]

Marleaud was a speedster and a shoot first scorer, who was the beneficiary of playing with one of the greatest passers the game has ever seen. perahps the most iconic pass in sharks history was Jumbo's no look backhander right to patty's tape. Patty was also pretty big. He was definitely a complimentary piece, not the driving force that Jumbo was...

This is revisionism. Marleau was very much a play driver. There's a LOT of daylight between being capable of driving play and being generationally dominant on the puck like Thornton was. Patty was a possession beast as well.

There used to be a meme circulating around of Marleau holding off 4 opposing players at once, anyone got that one?

 

[gaucholoco3]

Its way way too early to declare anything long term about a 19 year old kid who was rushed to the NHL. It was clear to me from training camp that Smith was not an NHL player yet. very few players can jump from college to the NHL as a teenager and thrive. Celebrini is a major exception that proves the rule. Smith has shown flashes, but his consistency is far below, his decision making is subpar, and his compete is not enough. His misreads on the forecheck give teams easy exits and his ill advised passes up the center lead to odd man rushes against (celly had a Smith special tonight too). That said, he plays with his head up looking t make creative plays. He is dangerous with the puck on his stick for both teams.

BUT, hes 30 or so games into the NHL career at 19, so calling him some kind of bust is ridiculous. Right now, his ice time is being limited as his production is poor. Wars is no doubt on him, but the brain trust likely expected this and is pleasantly surprised about Mack. Next year will be the first real test. Ek played 9 games his draft season, wasnt ready, so they sent him back to europe. Then again in D+1 (Smith's current year.). However, unlike Eklund who was properly reassigned, they have improperly chosen to keep smith in the NHL rather than reassign him. As such, he will have to take major lumps including 10 mins or less of ice, healthy scratches, and all the predictable consequences of not being NHL ready.

Its a moot point, and I know it, but I still contend that Smith's long term development is better served playing 20 mins/night in the AHL on the top line, with top line responsibilities and leadership rather than 9-10 mins of ice with shlubs and still being minus. Hes pointless and -5 in his last 7 games, and is now getting 4th line mins after being a healthy scratch. Is that the best for his development? Maybe, but I dunno. Its alot of challenge for kid, so Wars is gunna have to walk a fine line between holding him accountable for what he needs to learn but also maintaining his confidence and belief.

I contend, it's not too late to send him down and bring up Graf, who has earned another look with his play. I would LOVE to see one of the Cuda (Gush, cards, bords, graf... whoever) step into a top 9 role, and just run with it. Those undiscovered gems are worth so much. How different is the conversation if Graf gets the call up and puts up 30 pts for the rest of the year. Of course, on the flip side, Smith does definitely help the tank with his ineptitude.

Didn’t you eat crow 3 weeks ago saying you were wrong and he should be in the NHL full time after his hot streak.

The only thing that has changed is the Sharks have had a brutal schedule in December. They have played playoff teams that are cup contenders. Smith has not been great the past few games but he has also still gotten chances in a few of those games.

If you think going to the AHL will build his confidence just imagine if your boss demoted you and cut your pay by 90% to build your confidence. His confidence would be hurt more by a demotion that by his poor play with the Sharks.

Smith is on track with his development. Patience is needed even if it hurts your bets.

 

[Patty Ice]

Sometimes I just got to shake my head at a few of these takes.

I'm happy that Grier is GM of the team is all I can say.

 

[Zarzh]

The concern isn't with Smith, he's shown competence when played with functional linemates, the concern should be with Warso's ability to develop players.

This was my big worry, but its still so early. I'm also bummed they blew an ELC year too. He had an impressive 4 game stretch with 7 pts and +6, but in the other 25 games, he has just 4 pts (2 at EV) and a -18. He's obviously not NHL ready, but the big question and debate is: Does rushing a player to the NHL stunt their development comparing to playing a top line role in the AHL? or do the inevitable failures act as valuable teaching tools that lead to ultimate high level success down the road?

I don't know which is better for long term development: Taking the NHL lumps as we are seeing unfold, or playing the minors. I have no idea, but I would assign one of my analytics guys to look at all the past players and see if there is a difference, say, 3-5 years later. I bet there is a data-backed actual answer to this question.

Any qualitative analysis will tell you that expecting rookies with scoring talent to focus on developing a "B game" before pro-level scoring is the worse way to do it, since logically that should come alongside physical development.

 

[tiburon12]

Sometimes I just got to shake my head at a few of these takes.

I'm happy that Grier is GM of the team is all I can say.

seriously. I need to take @Juxtaposer's advice and ignore all the Smith talk/threads. Ho-lee is this maddening

 

[Forlan]

Oh, ok. Better inform Grier too. Trade him for a bag of.. well, just a bag. The team could really use one.

What is the meaning of your comment? Did anyone talk about Smith's trade for a bag of pucks? Just stating the facts that Smith is not ready for the NHL

 

[weastern bias]

Somehow it is overreacting to admit what we're all seeing, which is that Smith is not an NHL caliber player at this moment in time

Yet it is not overreacting to call for Goodrow to be benched in favor of an AHL call up who will assuredly bring the same lack of offense while also failing to bring his level of physicality, penalty killing and experience

Kids = good, depth vets = bad, the end, while ignoring that young players (beyond outliers like Celebrini) are enticing because of what they can bring to you in the future, not for what they bring you now, which in our case with players like Graf, Gushchin and Cardwell will just be more losses, their difference to the current roster is immaterial

 

[Barrie22]

What is the meaning of your comment? Did anyone talk about Smith's trade for a bag of pucks? Just stating the facts that Smith is not ready for the NHL

He is ready when ever he plays with players that has any resemblance of a nhl level offensive talent.

He has had a span of 6 games where he was given nhl quality players and in those 6 games he had 7 points and a +3.

He then got hurt and came back and was once again playing with players that can't make simple plays offensively and is struggling once again offensively.

But the coaching staffs answer every single time the team needs a top 6 forward is to saddle smith with the sturms and grundstroms to put goodrow into the top 6, which in turn hinders that top lines ability to produce because goodrow is so useless offensively that he alone can bring Celebrini down.

 

[Barrie22]

Somehow it is overreacting to admit what we're all seeing, which is that Smith is not an NHL caliber player at this moment in time

Yet it is not overreacting to call for Goodrow to be benched in favor of an AHL call up who will assuredly bring the same lack of offense while also failing to bring his level of physicality, penalty killing and experience

Kids = good, depth vets = bad, the end, while ignoring that young players (beyond outliers like Celebrini) are enticing because of what they can bring to you in the future, not for what they bring you now, which in our case with players like Graf, Gushchin and Cardwell will just be more losses, their difference to the current roster is immaterial

He is ready when given nhl talent, goodrow is not an nhl level talent any more. What you fail to see is that bringing up say graf who is killing it in the ahl offensively and defensively would bring just as much to this team as goodrow does. We do not need goodrows veteran leadership, as that is the only good trait he actually brings to an nhl game now.

The best smith and the entire team did, was the entire week or 2 that goodrow was injured. They were horrible before and instantly when he came back.

 

[Forlan]

He is ready when ever he plays with players that has any resemblance of a nhl level offensive talent.

He has had a span of 6 games where he was given nhl quality players and in those 6 games he had 7 points and a +3.

He then got hurt and came back and was once again playing with players that can't make simple plays offensively and is struggling once again offensively.

But the coaching staffs answer every single time the team needs a top 6 forward is to saddle smith with the sturms and grundstroms to put goodrow into the top 6, which in turn hinders that top lines ability to produce because goodrow is so useless offensively that he alone can bring Celebrini down.

Perhaps he needs such partners. Granlund + Zett would have taken over some of the defensive functions and would have been good offensively.

 

[weastern bias]

He is ready when ever he plays with players that has any resemblance of a nhl level offensive talent.

If you need premier partners and deployment to be effective then you are not an NHL player

For all the harping on Goodrow as "not an NHL talent" but he's a big part of why a team with so little defensive talent has a middle of the pack PK, he has legitimate utility beyond scoring, Smith does not and also is not scoring

 

[one2gamble]

If you need premier partners and deployment to be effective then you are not an NHL player

Thats like every 4th liner in the league, most dont do anything but skate hard.

 

[weastern bias]

Thats like every 4th liner in the league, most dont do anything but skate hard.

Faceoffs matter

Defense matters

Penalty killing matters

Forchecking matters

Physicality matters

There is more to the game than scoring

Well, not for Will Smith, that's his entire game, he just isn't very good at it yet