Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Pinkfloyd]

The problem is if it's a 4th (for example), the difference between the low 2nd we get and the high 4th we give away would only account to about 40 spots or so. I'd honestly rather just hang onto him if he wants to stay.

Yeah but draft capital can be the difference in getting Sam Dickinson and instead getting someone like Jiricek because the best went before.

 

[Juxtaposer]

So, we all agree that Dylan Guenther getting $7x8 with 24 career goals is insane, right? I wasn't worried about paying Eklund and Zetterlund but now I am...

 

[TheBeard]

So, we all agree that Dylan Guenther getting $7x8 with 24 career goals is insane, right? I wasn't worried about paying Eklund and Zetterlund but now I am...

I think teams are trying to get ahead of the major cap increases over the next few years. If he would have been bridged he’d be probably be signing a contract closer to ten a year in 26-27.

 

[mogambomoroo]

I think the approach might be to get Eklund around 7,5mil x 8, Celebrini around 10mil x 8 and Smith 8-9mil x 8. We'll see, hopefully we can lock them below their value and have the space to add.

 

[Erep]

I think teams are trying to get ahead of the major cap increases over the next few years. If he would have been bridged he’d be probably be signing a contract closer to ten a year in 26-27.

No, that contract is just bad. He could have come out this season and gone ppg, and gotten around 8x8. On the other hand, compare it to Mercer who had a bit of fall off, and gets 4x3. Dropping long contracts with a year left on the ELC is smart, if you cut the difference between a step back/injury and best case projection.

In this case they just assumed he will have a great year and payed him for it. This is the version of the early pay that could become comical long term. He hasn't even played a full season in the NHL...

 

[TheBeard]

No, that contract is just bad. He could have come out this season and gone ppg, and gotten around 8x8. On the other hand, compare it to Mercer who had a bit of fall off, and gets 4x3. Dropping long contracts with a year left on the ELC is smart, if you cut the difference between a step back/injury and best case projection.

In this case they just assumed he will have a great year and payed him for it. This is the version of the early pay that could become comical long term. He hasn't even played a full season in the NHL...

I think it's a tad presumptuous to claim the contract is bad. If he breaks out then the deal is a steal down the road. If not then 7 per isn't that demoralizing. Also, if he has a ppg season there's absolutely no way he signs at 8 per. Stutzle signed his deal coming off a 58 point performance at 8.35 per and that was 2 years ago. If the team would have waited and Dylan ended up having, say a 30-50-80 season at 21 (which is very doable if Logan Cooley also continues his rise) then he's signing for closer to nine per. Utah is paying more now in the hopes he continues his trajectory. The team has a whopping 29 million tied up to players now for the 27-28 season. Why not weaponize their own ample cap space by signing guys early?

 

[Erep]

I think it's a tad presumptuous to claim the contract is bad. If he breaks out then the deal is a steal down the road. If not then 7 per isn't that demoralizing. Also, if he has a ppg season there's absolutely no way he signs at 8 per. Stutzle signed his deal coming off a 58 point performance at 8.35 per and that was 2 years ago. If the team would have waited and Dylan ended up having, say a 30-50-80 season at 21 (which is very doable if Logan Cooley also continues his rise) then he's signing for closer to nine per. Utah is paying more now in the hopes he continues his trajectory.

There are two major differences. One is that Stutzle went straight to the NHL from the draft, so he is 1 year younger on his signing date. Those guys (Slaf, Stutzle, Hughes) always get more, partly because the team signing them is letting the hype get to them, but also because they are a year younger and it is safer to project clear growth in the first few years. The other is he hasn't been established in the NHL for a full season.

The guy to compare against is Raymond, who has full seasons of 57, 45, and 72 points. Guenther hasn't had a full season as an established NHL player yet. What could he possibly do this year to exceed the resume of Raymond this season?

In the end, the contract itself may end up being solid to good value, but part of it is the signing team takes on risk (injury, drop off in development) by signing early. In exchange, they are supposed to get a discount on projected AAV. Utah did not get that at all.

Edit: so I guess I will give you the contract itself isn't bad, but the process of signing it is.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think teams are trying to get ahead of the major cap increases over the next few years. If he would have been bridged he’d be probably be signing a contract closer to ten a year in 26-27.

If you feel like he's guaranteed to live up to the contract, then sure. But I don't personally believe it's a guarantee.

Let's play that game, though. If Eklund were eligible for an extension right now, what number would you be comfortable signing him for on an eight year extension? For me, it would probably be something like $5.5M.

 

[Barrie22]

If you feel like he's guaranteed to live up to the contract, then sure. But I don't personally believe it's a guarantee.

Let's play that game, though. If Eklund were eligible for an extension right now, what number would you be comfortable signing him for on an eight year extension? For me, it would probably be something like $5.5M.

So you are assuming eklund stays at a 40 point player basically for the entire 8 years?

 

[Juxtaposer]

So you are assuming eklund stays at a 40 point player basically for the entire 8 years?

Do 40 point wingers make $5.5M these days?

 

[TheBeard]

If you feel like he's guaranteed to live up to the contract, then sure. But I don't personally believe it's a guarantee.

Let's play that game, though. If Eklund were eligible for an extension right now, what number would you be comfortable signing him for on an eight year extension? For me, it would probably be something like $5.5M.

7 minimum. Again, teams that have the space that can pay their young talents now always do so. Staggering long term contracts is the best way to get the second half of deals team friendly.

Frankly, if you’re drafting guys at 3 (like Dylan) who have shown a positive rise through the system and have shown an ability to thrive in the NHL at 21 and you still don’t have confidence that rise will continue then what’s the point of even having a scouting department? You live and die with players exceeding the value of contracts. The best GMs don’t pay for past production but for potential. New Jersey did it with Hughes. Colorado did it with Mackinnon. If you don’t have faith that Eklund will be better than a 5.5 million dollar player then you may as well trade him now while his value is high.

 

[Barrie22]

Do 40 point wingers make $5.5M these days?

Yes lots do. Quick search shows danault, Schwartz, josh anderson, wilson, kane.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yes lots do. Quick search shows danault, Schwartz, josh anderson, wilson, kane.

Sure, but Danault is a shutdown center and the rest are bad contracts.

I see Eklund as a long-term 20-40-60 two-way winger with special teams value. Maybe I'm just out of touch on what that's worth these days, but if we signed Eklund to the contract that Guenther just got tomorrow, I would be a little iffy on it.

 

[Lebanezer]

So, we all agree that Dylan Guenther getting $7x8 with 24 career goals is insane, right? I wasn't worried about paying Eklund and Zetterlund but now I am...

It is insane. It's insane to make that commitment to a guy who may not even be one of your core pieces. Operating under the impression that your core pieces are 4-5 players that make you a legitimate contender year in and year out during their primes.

 

[TheBeard]

It is insane. It's insane to make that commitment to a guy who may not even be one of your core pieces. Operating under the impression that your core pieces are 4-5 players that make you a legitimate contender year in and year out during their primes.

I honestly don’t see how he’s not one of their core pieces. He was a top ten pick a couple years back and has done nothing to dissuade the validity of where he was picked.

 

[Hodge]

I honestly don’t see how he’s not one of their core pieces. He was a top ten pick a couple years back and has done nothing to dissuade the validity of where he was picked.

I agree. If Guenther doesn’t turn out to be worth that contract Utah is kinda screwed anyway so it’s worth the risk. Also they have 4 years to execute a 1/3 buyout if things really go wrong.

Raymond just set the value of a 70 point winger coming off his ELC at 8x8. Considering Guenther has already scored at a 50 point pace and should get top PP unit + at least 2nd line minutes 5v5 it’s a fairly safe bet he will reach 70 points if he stays healthy. If that happens the contract is already a bargain.

 

[OrrNumber4]

It is insane. It's insane to make that commitment to a guy who may not even be one of your core pieces. Operating under the impression that your core pieces are 4-5 players that make you a legitimate contender year in and year out during their primes.

I agree. But I'd assume that Utah thinks Guenther is going to be part of that group, so in their minds they're getting a discount.

 

[Lebanezer]

I honestly don’t see how he’s not one of their core pieces. He was a top ten pick a couple years back and has done nothing to dissuade the validity of where he was picked.

I’m sure they view him as a core piece, but he’s played 78 NHL games over 2 seasons. I would want to see quite a bit more from him before I give him that kind of money. Lucas Raymond on the other hand has played 3 full seasons in the NHL and he’s one year older than Guenther. His contract makes more sense. The Guenther contract is premature, he should have gotten a bridge deal.

 

[Hodge]

No, that contract is just bad. He could have come out this season and gone ppg, and gotten around 8x8. On the other hand, compare it to Mercer who had a bit of fall off, and gets 4x3. Dropping long contracts with a year left on the ELC is smart, if you cut the difference between a step back/injury and best case projection.

In this case they just assumed he will have a great year and payed him for it. This is the version of the early pay that could become comical long term. He hasn't even played a full season in the NHL...

You think the Devils wouldn't have signed Mercer to the Guenther contract if they had the cap space?