Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

Hodge

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Uh, you may want to look at how good Cagnoni is.

You may want to look at how good Cagnoni is. Dan Boyle reborn is the vibe. We are loaded up on D as much as C on LHD in terms of prospects.

Every other D prospect we have is LHD aside from Pohlkamp. We are loaded on the left side.

Yes not every one will be Brent Burns expectations, but we likely get some Doug Murray's, Christien Ehrhoff's and Matt Carle's with the Leo Wallenius level picks.We need that one both sides

Also, Dickenson is a near guaranteed NHLer, certainly too 4 and likely top 2. He's not going to bust. I'll avatar bet that with anyone

Playing off side sucks at pro level. Everyone, every dman, mentions how hard and unnatural it is. There are studies and long expositions on why, and they are scientifically proven. It reduces effectiveness of even practiced pros to play off side, and this is universally agreed upon.
5'9 defensemen typically don't make the NHL. Hopefully Cagnoni is the exceedingly rare exception but planning the future defense around him is delusional.

I agree that Dickinson is a near guaranteed NHLer. That also means there's a chance he doesn't make the NHL or that he's just a Brenden Dillon level defenseman if he does make it.

None of these guys warrant consideration when deciding which defenseman to spend a top 5 pick on.
 

67 others

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My dad played college club in Canada, so up in the 50's and 60's playing. Right handed, bats right, shoots left (dominant R hand on top). I think that's traditional and it's why there are so many left shots. My uncle played on the Canadian Junior Ntl team as a goalie, same timeframe -- right handed, catches left (normal), but I think weirdly shoots right when skating out, that one I'm not sure about.

I am left handed, but I shoot left because it's "swing natural." Should have shot right, would have had a better chance at one league up in the beer league tiers. You're right it all goes in cycles though.
Oh certainly there are outliers. Some righty will shoot left naturally. It's all in your feel

But I played junior in the 80s and early 90s. They didn't force any grip. You grabbed a stick and did what felt natural.

My friends kids in the early 2000s? The coaches basically gave ultimatums to parents to enforce forcing kids to practice play with their dominant hands on top of the stick, or RIP their ice time because "they won't be coached" if they didn't obey

The coaches would ask you to throw a puck at a target like it was a baseball, and if you were right-handed in pitching, you were shooting left. Or else you had some severe hurdles thrown up.

Mind you I am talking bantam, AAA and midget.

In any case, I found it weird. Nobody gave a crap when I played.
 
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Juxtaposer

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I would only keep Granlund if it's determined by the trade deadline that we need more time for Celebrini or Smith to establish themselves as the 1 and 2C's on this team. Maybe one of them gets injured and doesn't get a real shot at proving it. If they show themselves to be worthy of committing to them in those spots by then, there doesn't seem to be a spot for Granlund moving forward and we should just take the draft capital we can get for him. A 2nd would still prove very valuable for our bottom-five team going into the 2025 draft. We only have six picks in the draft next year and we only have six expiring contracts with a real chance at getting draft picks back in Granlund, Kunin, Sturm, Ceci, Rutta, and Blackwood. I think they can get picks back for all these guys but Ceci and Granlund could get us a 2nd if we're lucky. The rest are probably in that 4th round-ish area which could mean nothing if they have awful years.
Personally, there are a few criteria I'd need to have met for me to want to keep Granlund:

1. At the time of the deadline, Celebrini and Smith are not looking like they could be 1C and 2C next season
2. Granlund is playing at a top-6 C level
3. No one is offering us a 2nd round pick or better for him
4. He is judged to be an integral part of the room, even with the additions of Toffoli/Walman/Wennberg/Goodrow/Celebrini/Smith/Ceci
5. He's willing to take a one year extension to stay a Shark next season (high AAV is fine)

If all of that criteria is met, then I'd keep Granlund around. But if even one of them isn't then I'd just trade him for whatever we can get.
 

Pinkfloyd

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Personally, there are a few criteria I'd need to have met for me to want to keep Granlund:

1. At the time of the deadline, Celebrini and Smith are not looking like they could be 1C and 2C next season
2. Granlund is playing at a top-6 C level
3. No one is offering us a 2nd round pick or better for him
4. He is judged to be an integral part of the room, even with the additions of Toffoli/Walman/Wennberg/Goodrow/Celebrini/Smith/Ceci
5. He's willing to take a one year extension to stay a Shark next season (high AAV is fine)

If all of that criteria is met, then I'd keep Granlund around. But if even one of them isn't then I'd just trade him for whatever we can get.
I don't know how a 2nd isn't available in the trade market if Granlund is still playing top-6 C level but yeah I pretty much agree with where you're at. I'm also okay with all of that criteria being met and still taking what we can get for him or letting him walk. I don't think there's a wrong way to go with Granlund except for giving him term beyond two years.
 

Barrie22

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Righty vs Lefty. History wise lefties are the better defensemen overall. The greatest ever and 2nd and 3rd best ever defensemen were all lefties.
 

coooldude

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Oh certainly there are outliers. Some righty will shoot left naturally. It's all in your feel

But I played junior in the 80s and early 90s. They didn't force any grip. You grabbed a stick and did what felt natural.

My friends kids in the early 2000s? The coaches basically gave ultimatums to parents to enforce forcing kids to practice play with their dominant hands on top of the stick, or RIP their ice time because "they won't be coached" if they didn't obey

The coaches would ask you to throw a puck at a target like it was a baseball, and if you were right-handed in pitching, you were shooting left. Or else you had some severe hurdles thrown up.

Mind you I am talking bantam, AAA and midget.

In any case, I found it weird. Nobody gave a crap when I played.
I was just sharing that at least in Ontario in the 50's or 60's, it was indeed normal for people to put their dominant hand on top. It might not have been as forced as you're describing, but it was definitely normal and even encouraged. It wasn't "just do what feels natural" as you described for you.

When I was playing as a kid in the 90's it was "do what's natural" which squares with your experience.
 

Hodge

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Righty vs Lefty. History wise lefties are the better defensemen overall. The greatest ever and 2nd and 3rd best ever defensemen were all lefties.
There's like twice as many lefties (historically probably an even greater disparity) so not exactly surprising that lefties would be overrepresented among the best dmen ever.
 
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Barrie22

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There's like twice as many lefties (historically probably an even greater disparity) so not exactly surprising that lefties would be overrepresented among the best dmen ever.
Then that proves the point even more that it doesn't matter, lefty or righty. As there wasn’t a care for it the past 100 years, and it is only recently that this whole righty vs lefty thing has become a talking point.
 

gaucholoco3

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Then that proves the point even more that it doesn't matter, lefty or righty. As there wasn’t a care for it the past 100 years, and it is only recently that this whole righty vs lefty thing has become a talking point.
There have been multiple studies that have scientifically demonstrated that playing on an off side is less effective. It might be a small difference but in a game out inches every advantage is worth going after.
 

TheBeard

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I don't know how a 2nd isn't available in the trade market if Granlund is still playing top-6 C level but yeah I pretty much agree with where you're at. I'm also okay with all of that criteria being met and still taking what we can get for him or letting him walk. I don't think there's a wrong way to go with Granlund except for giving him term beyond two years.
Without a retention slot it'll be difficult. Not a lot of teams are gonna have that kind of space to waste.
 
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OrrNumber4

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There have been multiple studies that have scientifically demonstrated that playing on an off side is less effective. It might be a small difference but in a game out inches every advantage is worth going after.
I'll concede that when it comes to the lower and middle levels, where players are more machine than man, yes, every little advantage helps. When it comes to the top level, the superstars, I don't think it matters much.
 

Hodge

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Without a retention slot it'll be difficult. Not a lot of teams are gonna have that kind of space to waste.
The majority of the league will accrue enough cap space by the deadline to acquire Granlund with no retention and third party retention exists for the others.
 

coooldude

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There have been multiple studies that have scientifically demonstrated that playing on an off side is less effective. It might be a small difference but in a game out inches every advantage is worth going after.
Some data supporting this discussion:

1. Good exploration. Notably, the market is speaking: In 2008, 50% of 5v5 minutes had a D man playing their off-side; by 2016 that was already down to 30%, and I'm guessing lower now. tl;dr of the statistical analysis is that it very much supports handedness mattering.
2. This NYT/Athletic article from last year has been linked before. tl;dr it's all anecdotes and quotes but people agree that it matters a lot.
3. This interview references #1 above. tl;dr by 2018 off-side minutes was further down to 25%. The guy argues that maybe the NHL went too far in this obsession because you elevate a R shot just because they are, rather than playing the best two players. But he has no data to back it up, "we need tracking data and then people will be able to figure it out." I can only assume that the teams have the analytics now to prove the importance of LH-RH pairings or else we'll see it stabilize.
 
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Pinkfloyd

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Without a retention slot it'll be difficult. Not a lot of teams are gonna have that kind of space to waste.
My guess would be that it'd involve a 3rd team and either the team acquiring Granlund or us would fork over a 4th or 5th to get them to retain. That shouldn't be too difficult to negotiate.
 

Hodge

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My guess would be that it'd involve a 3rd team and either the team acquiring Granlund or us would fork over a 4th or 5th to get them to retain. That shouldn't be too difficult to negotiate.
I think it's worth doing even if we're effectively just trading Granlund to upgrade from a 4th to a 2nd. We should be able to replace him with a younger forward in free agency. Sam Bennett for example.
 

Juxtaposer

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I think it's worth doing even if we're effectively just trading Granlund to upgrade from a 4th to a 2nd. We should be able to replace him with a younger forward in free agency. Sam Bennett for example.
Even more important is that a 2nd round pick is a useful asset to acquire a top-4 veteran D in the summer. John Marino went for two 2nds, as an example. That's my main reason for being in favor of trading Granlund at the deadline.
 

Pinkfloyd

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I think it's worth doing even if we're effectively just trading Granlund to upgrade from a 4th to a 2nd. We should be able to replace him with a younger forward in free agency. Sam Bennett for example.
I'd probably do that as well. We may not even need to replace him if things go well enough with our younger players. Granlund has been valuable in getting Eklund and Zetterlund to play more consistently but the 2025-26 season shouldn't need those two to have vets around them to play anymore and will probably be great fits on Celebrini or Smith's wings themselves..
 

Hodge

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I'd probably do that as well. We may not even need to replace him if things go well enough with our younger players. Granlund has been valuable in getting Eklund and Zetterlund to play more consistently but the 2025-26 season shouldn't need those two to have vets around them to play anymore and will probably be great fits on Celebrini or Smith's wings themselves..
I think we will need an established center beyond Wennberg to soak up some tough minutes behind Celebrini and Smith. I just don't want to commit to 33 year old Granlund to be that guy if we can get any sort of return for him at the deadline.
 

OrrNumber4

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Some data supporting this discussion:

1. Good exploration. Notably, the market is speaking: In 2008, 50% of 5v5 minutes had a D man playing their off-side; by 2016 that was already down to 30%, and I'm guessing lower now. tl;dr of the statistical analysis is that it very much supports handedness mattering.
2. This NYT/Athletic article from last year has been linked before. tl;dr it's all anecdotes and quotes but people agree that it matters a lot.
3. This interview references #1 above. tl;dr by 2018 off-side minutes was further down to 25%. The guy argues that maybe the NHL went too far in this obsession because you elevate a R shot just because they are, rather than playing the best two players. But he has no data to back it up, "we need tracking data and then people will be able to figure it out." I can only assume that the teams have the analytics now to prove the importance of LH-RH pairings or else we'll see it stabilize.

Interesting studies. I think a lot of this might be some kind of top-down phenomenon. Kids are taught from an early age to stick to one side, master it, live in it, breathe it, etc. So as they rise to the ranks they naturally struggle on the opposite side, and the difference gets exagerrated.

Personally, I generally favored my off-side because it was better for offense and transition. Easier to shoot from the center of the ice and knock down pucks coming through the middle. Much harder to do on my proper side; though it's easier to knock down pucks coming up the boards using your body., and I suppose there's less chance of a turnover Defensively, the idea is that on your natural side your stick can poke anything coming through the middle, and your body takes someone going down the side. On your off-side, you have to catch people against nothing as they come up through the middle, and have less range of your stick.

Now, the way to compensate for that is to skate. You should be constantly adjusting your position so that you angle of attack is maximized. Indeed, even on my natural side, if a player was coming down the wing I'd twist my body to attack with my stick.

Thinking about it, I wonder how much the focus on sidedness came from the league getting bigger and slower in the DPE to the early 2010s; putting a big, slow, and possibly dumb defenseman on his natural side was the best way to maximize his talent. Maybe with skating being emphasized more and more, we'll see a reversion of that trend.
 
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67 others

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I'll concede that when it comes to the lower and middle levels, where players are more machine than man, yes, every little advantage helps. When it comes to the top level, the superstars, I don't think it matters much.
It actually matters more at the highest levels.

A split second difference makes the difference, and that's why top level LHD playing right side say it slows their reaction time that half a second and say they play better on their natural side

The split second difference is being stripped of the puck or clobbered before you make the play. It matters less at lower levels, and way more at the highest level
 

Pinkfloyd

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I think we will need an established center beyond Wennberg to soak up some tough minutes behind Celebrini and Smith. I just don't want to commit to 33 year old Granlund to be that guy if we can get any sort of return for him at the deadline.
Possibly. They could go that route if they want. If they think Bystedt is ready to be their 3C next year based on whatever opportunities he's afforded this season, they could go the old Pens route when they had three young centers anchoring their team. Wennberg could be his linemate so that Bystedt doesn't always have to shoulder the load of the center's responsibilities.
 

OrrNumber4

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It actually matters more at the highest levels.

A split second difference makes the difference, and that's why top level LHD playing right side say it slows their reaction time that half a second and say they play better on their natural side

The split second difference is being stripped of the puck or clobbered before you make the play. It matters less at lower levels, and way more at the highest level
When I meant levels, I meant within the NHL. My contention is that when you play your off-side, you get more options and more ability to make plays, at the cost of simplicity and increased risks. Meaning that for the bottom-pairing, where they're not expected to be creative, playing on their true side has little downside and captures all the upside, while at the top-pairing, you're actually giving up something of value.
 

gaucholoco3

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When I meant levels, I meant within the NHL. My contention is that when you play your off-side, you get more options and more ability to make plays, at the cost of simplicity and increased risks. Meaning that for the bottom-pairing, where they're not expected to be creative, playing on their true side has little downside and captures all the upside, while at the top-pairing, you're actually giving up something of value.
Playing on the off side requires a lot more back hand passing for both D and W’s. It’s not as critical for W’s and can open up different shooting angles but for D in their zone that could be the difference between a turnover or a completed breakout pass.

I do think Cagnoni with his size limitations already has to be more creative with his angles and footwork so maybe he could be more effective on his off side especially if paired with a big defensively inclined plus skating LD. Both Muk and Dickinson fit that profile.
 
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67 others

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When I meant levels, I meant within the NHL. My contention is that when you play your off-side, you get more options and more ability to make plays, at the cost of simplicity and increased risks. Meaning that for the bottom-pairing, where they're not expected to be creative, playing on their true side has little downside and captures all the upside, while at the top-pairing, you're actually giving up something of value.
A lot of exceptionally talented offensive and defensive Dmen who were top pair say otherwise. They did several articles in the last 2 years where modern top pair Dmen talked about it, and its pretty unanimous.

Everyone except Dahlin says its much harder defensively and affects their play and that they play way better on their natural side and can react that split second faster
 
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TheBeard

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The majority of the league will accrue enough cap space by the deadline to acquire Granlund with no retention and third party retention exists for the others.
If we're using a third party then we're not getting a 2nd, or if we are we're probably giving away a 3rd in the process.

My guess would be that it'd involve a 3rd team and either the team acquiring Granlund or us would fork over a 4th or 5th to get them to retain. That shouldn't be too difficult to negotiate.
The problem is if it's a 4th (for example), the difference between the low 2nd we get and the high 4th we give away would only account to about 40 spots or so. I'd honestly rather just hang onto him if he wants to stay.
 

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