Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[Antiramie]

Even better than that, he’s scored 20+ goals in 7 of the past 10 seasons. Including seasons where he’s scored 41 and 35 goals. Two of the three seasons where he’s failed to score at least 20, he missed 38 and 26 games. Last year was an exception and not the rule. I think this will prove to be a sneaky good signing.

The fact that you’re saying this like his worst seasons aren’t glaringly obviously his most recent ones is hilarious.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Yeah I won’t get my hopes up at least not before we have a good sample size of Atkinson in a Lightning jersey. Statistically Sheary is a 15 goal scorer too, didn’t really work out that way so far.

 

[These Are The Days]

After having about a week to digest everything I've come to the conclusion that this roster is not that good and JB is just gonna have to make another trade at the deadline anyway. Had he just signed Stamkos we'd just be skeptical of our scoring depth. And we do that every year. Now we're skeptical about the top 6 too

 

[Zwui21]

After having about a week to digest everything I've come to the conclusion that this roster is not that good and JB is just gonna have to make another trade at the deadline anyway. Had he just signed Stamkos we'd just be skeptical of our scoring depth. And we do that every year. Now we're skeptical about the top 6 too

Had he signed Stamkos we'd be worrying about top 6 anyway because Stamkos and Cirelli don't work together. And Stamkos on the top line wasn't the gauntlet move anymore this season at 5v5.

The moves JBB made improve us a lot 5v5, PP wise Kuch will simply take on an even bigger role.

But yes, we still need to fill the glaring hole in the top 6.

 

[Rschmitz]

That sounds a lot like what we got with Shattenkirk though. We were told he wasn't even an NHLer anymore. Then he showed up... and was pretty good. Definitely better than anyone thought he was going to be. But he was also here because he saw it as an opportunity to revive his career. Yeah, Atkinson's older, but there are roles available on this team where a guy like this thrives.

Aww ok, good point. We were also desperate for an offensive minded righty PMD then, he was a perfect fit and his numbers reflected that. Very similar upsides going into the season.

 

[Rschmitz]

Yea, I'm sure the season-ending neck injury he had recently is just a coincidence...

He had the surgery 19 months ago and has played a full season since then. He had 5 goals through 9, 8g through the first 15 games of last season, so whatever the residual effects were from it, didn't show up on the scoresheet.

He also had 73 shots through the first 23 games, he had 28 shots in his last 23 games. Some of that was from being pushed down the lineup, but he was also asked to fill a different role.

It's not a big secret what needs to happen. Send him out there to shoot the puck, we aren't a Tortorella team where everybody needs to be a complete player.

Even if he doesn't score, this is a team that feasts on rebound opportunities. Hagel-Cirelli-Atkinson are going to create so much havoc.

 

[Antiramie]

He had the surgery 19 months ago and has played a full season since then. He had 5 goals through 9, 8g through the first 15 games of last season, so whatever the residual effects were from it, didn't show up on the scoresheet.

He also had 73 shots through the first 23 games, he had 28 shots in his last 23 games. Some of that was from being pushed down the lineup, but he was also asked to fill a different role.

It's not a big secret what needs to happen. Send him out there to shoot the puck, we aren't a Tortorella team where everybody needs to be a complete player.

Even if he doesn't score, this is a team that feasts on rebound opportunities. Hagel-Cirelli-Atkinson are going to create so much havoc.

And you can make the argument that he was pushed down in the lineup/playing a different role late in the season because he looked like a slow, old dude out there by then. I'm sure it's no coincidence that a 35 year old coming off major injury doesn't have the durability/longevity of younger guys. Not to mention that 4 out of the last 5 seasons he's played fewer than 56 games and/or hasn't scored more than 15 goals.

I'm not saying he was a bad signing, especially for that price. But some of the rationalizing of making him out to be a player whose best years aren't definitely behind him is borderline pie in the sky type of thinking. At best he's a PP specialist. I just don't see that translating later in the season and into the playoffs, especially if he's getting more than 4th/3rd line minutes. He's not a 2nd liner...period.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Had he signed Stamkos we'd be worrying about top 6 anyway because Stamkos and Cirelli don't work together. And Stamkos on the top line wasn't the gauntlet move anymore this season at 5v5.

The moves JBB made improve us a lot 5v5, PP wise Kuch will simply take on an even bigger role.

But yes, we still need to fill the glaring hole in the top 6.

I mean, that line was pretty damn good the last couple months of the year.

Guentzel - Point - Kucherov
Hagel - Cirelli - Stamkos

^ that would have been more than fine.

 

[Antiramie]

Gonna go out on a limb that a 40 goal scorer probably would have meshed better on the 2nd line than *checks notes* Conor f***ing Sheary...

 

[Rschmitz]

And you can make the argument that he was pushed down in the lineup/playing a different role late in the season because he looked like a slow, old dude out there by then. I'm sure it's no coincidence that a 35 year old coming off major injury doesn't have the durability/longevity of younger guys. Not to mention that 4 out of the last 5 seasons he's played fewer than 56 games and/or hasn't scored more than 15 goals.

I'm not saying he was a bad signing, especially for that price. But some of the rationalizing of making him out to be a player whose best years aren't definitely behind him is borderline pie in the sky type of thinking. At best he's a PP specialist. I just don't see that translating later in the season and into the playoffs, especially if he's getting more than 4th/3rd line minutes. He's not a 2nd liner...period.

I see two different arguments being conflated here.

Can he stay healthy? Maybe not, it's a good point, no argument that he could miss games.

Is he not a scoring liner any more? That's different, I think there is plenty of evidence that he is.

15g and 34 points in 56 games
12g and 26 points in 44 games

This is easily better production than anything we have if Paul is our 3C, and he'd comfortably hit 20g's in a full season. With the exception of last season when he was pushed onto a checking line, every year he's been in the league he's produced.

Is saying a healthy Atkinson should put up 20g-40pts really going out on a limb?

 

[Antiramie]

I see two different arguments being conflated here.

Can he stay healthy? Maybe not, it's a good point, no argument that he could miss games.

Is he not a scoring liner any more? That's different, I think there is plenty of evidence that he is.

15g and 34 points in 56 games
12g and 26 points in 44 games

This is easily better production than anything we have if Paul is our 3C, and he'd comfortably hit 20g's in a full season. With the exception of last season when he was pushed onto a checking line, every year he's been in the league he's produced.

Is saying a healthy Atkinson should put up 20g-40pts really going out on a limb?

This question itself is going out on a limb. That's the point I'm making. He's had one season out of the last five where he's been healthy AND productive. And however he was used in the latter part of last season, he still couldn't buy a point against 4th line competition and the general consensus was he looked slow/washed.

IMO we had a playoff capable roster before he was signed. I just don't think given his injury/durability history as of late that he's going to be a difference maker late in the season/playoffs. And if he's our best offensive production potential for the 2nd line outside of moving Paul there, I think that's more of an indictment of our bottom 9 than praise for Cam. Is he worth kicking the tires on for $900k? Yea. Do I expect him to be the cure for our 2nd line hole? Absolutely not.

To me he seems like a poor man's Duclair. He's going to come in and probably like look a steal off the bat and then fade into obscurity as the season goes on. At least that's my expectation.

 

[ThunderRoad]

Gonna go out on a limb that a 40 goal scorer probably would have meshed better on the 2nd line than *checks notes* Conor f***ing Sheary...

I don't get why he's still part of this team if BriseBois was being analytical about how the team needed to get better 5x5 and then fixing "mistakes" with Sergachev's contract increase and Jeannot's lack of fit. Sheary did not fit on this team either last year. I can see him being harder to move than Jeannot but there were other means to subtract a larger portion of his contract from the roster. I don't see how he's suddenly going to become an impact player next season.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Like I've said in other threads, we're not far away from being an 110 point regular season team, provided we get a bit better goaltending, team defense, and a few more goals from our depth. But at the same time, we're also very close to dipping further to being an 88 point regular season team, which could very well happen with meh goaltending, PP issues without Stamkos, & continued lack of consistent depth scoring.

Gonna be an interesting 2024-25 season.

 

[Rschmitz]

I think discussion on the Atkinson situation has run it's course and we'll have to wait and see. We could go "yeah huh" , "Uhnt uh" back and forth forever.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I just don’t see how having Guentzel and Stamkos would have been possible, even if we got rid of Sheary.

 

[Antiramie]

I don't get why he's still part of this team if BriseBois was being analytical about how the team needed to get better 5x5 and then fixing "mistakes" with Sergachev's contract increase and Jeannot's lack of fit. Sheary did not fit on this team either last year. I can see him being harder to move than Jeannot but there were other means to subtract a larger portion of his contract from the roster. I don't see how he's suddenly going to become an impact player next season.

To play devil's advocate, he's only 32, last year's production was an outlier for his career, and we've seen plenty of guys with way more talent come in and look relatively lost and/or used in a more conservative manner the first season compared to subsequent ones.

On the other hand, he looked pretty ass for most of the season.

I gotta imagine it's more likely that JBB/Coop are more optimistic about him bouncing back than there being zero trade market for him. I also think if he flops again he'll probably be a trade deadline casualty, and the uncertainty with him going into the season is one of the reasons we signed someone like Atkinson and still have ~$2M in cap space in our back pocket.

 

[Antiramie]

I just don’t see how having Guentzel and Stamkos would have been possible, even if we got rid of Sheary.

Agreed. Seems like a pipe dream. Let's say best case scenario we sign Moser for ~$3M AAV and unload Sheary with no retention that leaves us with $4.7M for Stammer. And you can't sign Stammer before them because his deal is dependent on those moves being done.

I think that's why JBB offered him the 3x8 (if that rumor is true). It's the most we have at our disposal after signing Guentzel. You can view it as a lowball offer, especially compared to what he signed for with Nashville, but it's also just a realistic offer of what we could afford considering other cap space was going to be used after him.

 

[JTBF81]

I just don’t see how having Guentzel and Stamkos would have been possible, even if we got rid of Sheary.

It likely wouldn't have been, since Stamkos likely wasn't staying for less than 6.5-7 on a 4 to 5 year deal. JBB prioritized Guentzel once it looked like he wasn't going to re-sign in Carolina, and he had s set number that he wasn't exceeding for Stamkos. We'll likely never know what either side was offering or willing to accept, but that's over now. Hopefully, JBB can get Moser signed soon and then perhaps we'll zee if any trades and/or additional signings are forthcoming.

 

[JTBF81]

Just have to hope that if Sheary remains on the team this season that last season was just a down year for him. Between the injuries and adjusting to a new team/system, the poor performance could be explained. Hopefully, the Sheary they get this year is much closer to the player he was the 3 years prior, a player who averaged 19 goals and 41 points a season. Even if he's only able to add 15 goals and 30-35 points, it'd still be a big lift for the middle/bottom 6.

 

[ccman68]

we were after henrique so unless we were offering him league min we would need more cap space so i’m assuming we would’ve traded sheary if we got it done. if we can’t get anyone decent then there isn’t any point moving him

 

[These Are The Days]

It likely wouldn't have been, since Stamkos likely wasn't staying for less than 6.5-7 on a 4 to 5 year deal. JBB prioritized Guentzel once it looked like he wasn't going to re-sign in Carolina, and he had s set number that he wasn't exceeding for Stamkos. We'll likely never know what either side was offering or willing to accept, but that's over now. Hopefully, JBB can get Moser signed soon and then perhaps we'll zee if any trades and/or additional signings are forthcoming.

He is going to have to make a trade at the deadline. We are a move or two away from being the odds on favorite for a Cup but this team as its currently constructed isn't going anywhere. It can maybe beat Boston and Toronto at best. I am prepared for this season to frustrate the hell out of me

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

We are not a better team, I just don’t see it. Our top six has such glaring holes in it. I hope to be proven wrong but I don’t see it. I think the defense is better. And hopefully Vasy returns to form. But our scoring depth is just bad.

 

[JTBF81]

He is going to have to make a trade at the deadline. We are a move or two away from being the odds on favorite for a Cup but this team as its currently constructed isn't going anywhere. It can maybe beat Boston and Toronto at best. I am prepared for this season to frustrate the hell out of me

They were always likely to have one supposed "hole" in the top 9, but until Moser is signed and we see.if JBB has any other trades or moves planned.this summer, who knows what the roster might end up as on opening night. I think the team as is could contend with better defensive play and Vasy returning to being a top 5-10 G again. If Sheary bounces back to something closer to what he was before last season, all the better. The team probably wins the division or finishes a close 2nd with a healthy Vasy last season, and they look better, at least on paper, at 5v5 and defense this season. There's plenty of things to be optimistic about heading into '24-'25.

 

[Antiramie]

We are not a better team, I just don’t see it. Our top six has such glaring holes in it. I hope to be proven wrong but I don’t see it. I think the defense is better. And hopefully Vasy returns to form. But our scoring depth is just bad.

Our top 6 had a glaring hole in it with Duclair or whoever else was there late in the season. AFAIC the dropoff from him to whomever we plug in there isn't nearly as noticeable as the upgrade we've gotten on defense, which is the side of the ice we needed to improve the most. Offense was a luxury. We were 2nd in the East in scoring. Our defense was the problem. It was dogshit...11th in the East. Granted some of that was on Vasy at times, but overall our team defense was piss poor. And Guentzel, McD, and Moser are all pretty much unquestionably defensive upgrades over last year's counterparts (Stamkos, Sergachev, and Dumba/Perbix/Lilleberg/de Haan/whoever).

We are a better team...at least on paper.

 

[Felonious Python]

Some of our guys playing in Da Beauty League this season.