Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[LTIR Trickery]

JBB called him a top 4 Dman, right?

Can that be used in arbitration? Hey my GM called me a top 4 Dman...I should be paid like one.

Anyone know?

Anything can be used in arb, but if thats as good as your argument gets you're going to get shit on.

 

[Crunchrulz]

Are we really gonna roll:

Jake-Point-Kuch
Hagel-Cirelli-Cam/Paul

We desperately need a playmaking 2C...not sure where we find one but that would help a lot.

Right now, we have too many guys playing a line up.

VASY just being average Vasy would help a lot. But come playoff time...we need another line that can carry some of the scoring load. Kuch will get double teamed again. First round exit again.

Not sure two guys at 35 in the back end will be good after a full season.

They will be relied on all season. The team lacks depth everywhere.

Trying to see how this team gets to contender status...having a hard time.

EDIT: Just thinking if we kept Stammer at $4 mill/yr...whatever...what would that look like?

jake-point-kuch
stammer-cirelli-hagel

Play would still die on Cirelli's stick. Cirelli at 2C is a non-starter for this team to go anywhere.

Just think; if the dog had not paused for a nature break, the fox may very well have been caught.

Stammer is gone. It is time for the fan base to accept that fact and move on with the pieces we have.

It would appear JBB is holding off any further activity until the decision on Moser's salary comes down. Very smart choice as it prevents the team from overextending the Cap (preseason extra space or not) and being forced to make a transaction they might not want to.

 

[Major4Boarding]

JBB called him a top 4 Dman, right?

Can that be used in arbitration? Hey my GM called me a top 4 Dman...I should be paid like one.

Anyone know?

What Evidence Can Be Presented

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases includes:

The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons

• Injuries, illnesses, and the number of games played
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal"
• The performance and salary of any player believed to be comparable to the player in the dispute

Evidence that is not admissible includes:

• The salary and performance of a comparable player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent
• Testimonials, videos, and media reports
• The financial state of the team
• The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll

Good Arbitration resource

 

[LTIR Trickery]

There does seem to be some room for optimism. Vasy will start the year healthy, and he did look much improved in the later stages of the season. Guentzel on either the 1st or 2nd line is likely to be a large boost for the team, especially 5v5. The bottom 6 looks better this year, and the defense seems better in terms of improving ga/g with the addition of McD.

In almost any configuration of this year's line up, there was going to be one perceived "hole" in the top 6/9, so what they have now is not surprising. JBB could've potentially gone after a couple of ~5 million aav guys(no,.not Stamkos since he signed for 8, sticking to facts here) instead.of Guentzel, but it's clear that Guentzel was his priority as soon as it looked like he wasn't going to extend with Carolina. Trades can still be made or ufa's signed, and as I mentioned a while back as have others, Paul can be moved to the top 6 if needed/that combo seems to work best(provided no one else is added). It wouldn't be that big of a surprise if they run Paul with Point and Kuch and Guentzel with Hagel and Cirelli, at least at the beginning to see how it works.

It's time for Goncalves to get a shot, so him at 3C with Atkinson and Ace could be decent. It will be a bit different, but this team still has more than.enough to make a run at it, especially if JBB does find that one last addition, either over the summer or as they near the deadline perhaps.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they ran a lot more 11-7 with the defenders they have, especially if one of the younger guys really starts to run with a job. I'm... optimistic about the bottom six but also taking a wait and see with it. I think having someone drive play in the top six more will also help the appearances of guys like Paul, he can get back to doing the Killorn style "work" while setting up the others on his line. Cirelli can likely get more favorable matchups too.

 

[T REX]

Just think; if the dog had not paused for a nature break, the fox may very well have been caught.

Stammer is gone. It is time for the fan base to accept that fact and move on with the pieces we have.

It would appear JBB is holding off any further activity until the decision on Moser's salary comes down. Very smart choice as it prevents the team from overextending the Cap (preseason extra space or not) and being forced to make a transaction they might not want to.

If you read my post...I kinda imply that even having Stammer back is a waste with Cirelli at 2C

He's not a 2C. He never will be.

 

[JTBF81]

Cirelli is the team's 2C and actually improved last season. He's only 26 turning 27, so entering his prime years. It is quite possible he hasn't hit his ceiling either. In any case, he looks to be the 2C for some time unless one of Geekie or Goncalves really impresses in the next year or two. Cirelli's contract also will continue to look better and better as the cap increases. I don't see him getting traded given his role and the current need at his position.

 

[Sky04]

JBB left the 1st 2 years of Cirelli's contract unprotected for a reason. He'll probably move him next season.

 

[DFC]

I think Guentzel might get something out of him. It would be nice to have two lines that are threats. For once.

 

[Todd1a]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they ran a lot more 11-7 with the defenders they have, especially if one of the younger guys really starts to run with a job. I'm... optimistic about the bottom six but also taking a wait and see with it. I think having someone drive play in the top six more will also help the appearances of guys like Paul, he can get back to doing the Killorn style "work" while setting up the others on his line. Cirelli can likely get more favorable matchups too.

Well we will have cap space at the trade deadline for once and some picks for assets to trade i suspect if nobody steps up JBB will add a couple forwards at the deadline

JBB left the 1st 2 years of Cirelli's contract unprotected for a reason. He'll probably move him next season.

And then we will sign Crosby for 2 years ? Lol

 

[garmonbozia]

JBB left the 1st 2 years of Cirelli's contract unprotected for a reason. He'll probably move him next season.

I thought that reason was age, not anything JBB specifically did or didn't do. I think you have to be 28 before any NTC or NMC can be applied.

 

[JTBF81]

I thought that reason was age, not anything JBB specifically did or didn't do. I think you have to be 28 before any NTC or NMC can be applied.

Yeah. 7 full seasons or min age 27 before any type of ntc can begin.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Overall thinking about it I think we're a better team but another move at top 6 f to solidify a definite contender nod from me. I think we're somewhere between 3spot and wc for Atlantic if I'm being biased. But I think my hope is the team will be more disciplined two way and not take as many dumb penalties and then obviously hopefully vasi is ready to be at his best when it matters.

D is fine but forward needs another player who can take pressure off the rest of the top guys but I do think we'll actually have a more balanced line up if we have good line combos. If he can add toughness to the team perfect. If Guentzel could get more offense out of cirelli that's definitely a win too. Less concerned about who they play with kuch and point. Just don't be a dumb player who takes penalties and he will probably be ok there. Guentzel obviously should be there when we need to get going like how they put top guys together. But I think a line of Guentzel cirelli and bagel would be interesting to see. How much offense it actually performs? Guentzel is a smart player and i think they're all pretty smart players in their roles. Could be something. I'm excited for the team even though it does suck to lose stamkos.

 

[DFC]

Overall thinking about it I think we're a better team but another move at top 6 f to solidify a definite contender nod from me. I think we're somewhere between 3spot and wc for Atlantic if I'm being biased. But I think my hope is the team will be more disciplined two way and not take as many dumb penalties and then obviously hopefully vasi is ready to be at his best when it matters.

D is fine but forward needs another player who can take pressure off the rest of the top guys but I do think we'll actually have a more balanced line up if we have good line combos. If he can add toughness to the team perfect. If Guentzel could get more offense out of cirelli that's definitely a win too. Less concerned about who they play with kuch and point. Just don't be a dumb player who takes penalties and he will probably be ok there. Guentzel obviously should be there when we need to get going like how they put top guys together. But I think a line of Guentzel cirelli and bagel would be interesting to see. How much offense it actually performs? Guentzel is a smart player and i think they're all pretty smart players in their roles. Could be something. I'm excited for the team even though it does suck to lose stamkos.

I think we could use another RHD too. Either/or with a Top-6 F, although those are pretty pricey.

 

[JTBF81]

I think we could use another RHD too. Either/or with a Top-6 F, although those are pretty pricey.

Moser can play the right pretty easily, and that allows Lilleberg to remain as the 3LD and get regular playing time.

I'm not entirely convinced that JBB is done improving the F group either. Once Moser's contract is signed, he'll have a clear idea as to what he can do on that front. If Moser takes 3 million and then Lilleberg is 870k, they'll have e 1.87 left for a 13th F. They could just promote Goncalves and have 1.095 left from which they can accrue, or he could then look into moving Sheary, which would give them 3.1 (after factoring in Goncalves), for a middle 6 F.

Aside from Sprong, other middle 6 wings that have one year left and could be of interest are Vatrano, Kakko, and Kuzmenko. With some retention and moving Sheary, any one of them could be acquired possibly via trade. Perbix could also be included to save a little more room and give Crozier more of a shot, since the coaches seemed.to be impressed with him. JBB could also just stick with Sheary and hope he bouves back to the player he was before.Tampa and can produce 15-20 goals and ~40 points.

 

[Felonious Python]

What Evidence Can Be Presented

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases includes:

The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons

• Injuries, illnesses, and the number of games played
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal"
• The performance and salary of any player believed to be comparable to the player in the dispute

Evidence that is not admissible includes:

• The salary and performance of a comparable player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent
• Testimonials, videos, and media reports
• The financial state of the team
• The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll

Good Arbitration resource

TB has a great defense for everything to come up in arbitration.

"Not with us."

but the odds of them getting to arbitration at all are low.

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

What Evidence Can Be Presented

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases includes:

The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons

• Injuries, illnesses, and the number of games played
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal"
• The performance and salary of any player believed to be comparable to the player in the dispute

Evidence that is not admissible includes:

• The salary and performance of a comparable player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent
• Testimonials, videos, and media reports
• The financial state of the team
• The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll

Good Arbitration resource

Basically JBB Can just say he hasn’t don’t anything with us or for us .

 

[Felonious Python]

Arbitration (or at least filing for it) would pretty much ensure a short term deal. One or two years. That may be the real goal of Moser filing.

 

[OffBy1]

Moser can play the right pretty easily, and that allows Lilleberg to remain as the 3LD and get regular playing time.

I'm not entirely convinced that JBB is done improving the F group either. Once Moser's contract is signed, he'll have a clear idea as to what he can do on that front. If Moser takes 3 million and then Lilleberg is 870k, they'll have e 1.87 left for a 13th F. They could just promote Goncalves and have 1.095 left from which they can accrue, or he could then look into moving Sheary, which would give them 3.1 (after factoring in Goncalves), for a middle 6 F.

Aside from Sprong, other middle 6 wings that have one year left and could be of interest are Vatrano, Kakko, and Kuzmenko. With some retention and moving Sheary, any one of them could be acquired possibly via trade. Perbix could also be included to save a little more room and give Crozier more of a shot, since the coaches seemed.to be impressed with him. JBB could also just stick with Sheary and hope he bouves back to the player he was before.Tampa and can produce 15-20 goals and ~40 points.

I was clicking the "Like" button on the post, but then I got to the part about JBB keeping Sheary and hoping he bounces back.

 

[MrGone]

I popped over to see where you guys were putting Conor Geekie in your lineup projections. I was surprised not to see him listed at all.

Do you view him as completely blocked and heading to the AHL?

 

[DFC]

Moser can play the right pretty easily, and that allows Lilleberg to remain as the 3LD and get regular playing time.

I'm not entirely convinced that JBB is done improving the F group either. Once Moser's contract is signed, he'll have a clear idea as to what he can do on that front. If Moser takes 3 million and then Lilleberg is 870k, they'll have e 1.87 left for a 13th F. They could just promote Goncalves and have 1.095 left from which they can accrue, or he could then look into moving Sheary, which would give them 3.1 (after factoring in Goncalves), for a middle 6 F.

Aside from Sprong, other middle 6 wings that have one year left and could be of interest are Vatrano, Kakko, and Kuzmenko. With some retention and moving Sheary, any one of them could be acquired possibly via trade. Perbix could also be included to save a little more room and give Crozier more of a shot, since the coaches seemed.to be impressed with him. JBB could also just stick with Sheary and hope he bouves back to the player he was before.Tampa and can produce 15-20 goals and ~40 points.

You have to stop believing Jon Cooper will play a defenseman on his weak side. It's been over 10 years. He doesn't do it.

I popped over to see where you guys were putting Conor Geekie in your lineup projections. I was surprised not to see him listed at all.

Do you view him as completely blocked and heading to the AHL?

I don't think anyone projected him to be NHL ready even before the trade.

 

[Felonious Python]

I popped over to see where you guys were putting Conor Geekie in your lineup projections. I was surprised not to see him listed at all.

Do you view him as completely blocked and heading to the AHL?

Our brains are pretty much broken at this point.

 

[Rschmitz]

I popped over to see where you guys were putting Conor Geekie in your lineup projections. I was surprised not to see him listed at all.

Do you view him as completely blocked and heading to the AHL?

This organization likes to take their time with prospects and Geekie is already a project.

He has to stand out at camp before he’s even in the discussion

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't think anyone projected him to be NHL ready even before the trade.

I disagree. I think there is potential that Geekie is NHL ready if he impresses in camp with Utah prior to the trade. I also could see him making the Lightning tbh.

 

[JTBF81]

If Geekie stands out in camp, then perhaps he gets a spot. More likely he starts the year in Syracuse, but if he lights it up with them, one would hope he'd get a call up sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, with many prospects, Tampa cooks them until they are charred before giving them any kind of chance. Hopefully, that won't be the case with Geekie if he plays well for the Crunch.

 

[These Are The Days]

I disagree. I think there is potential that Geekie is NHL ready if he impresses in camp with Utah prior to the trade. I also could see him making the Lightning tbh.

Yeah that's the conventional wisdom of most franchises. But the Lightning rarely follow it and are stubborn as hell about their way of doing things. That being, if the Lightning define a specific role for a player (especially one as skilled as Geekie) you better be able to do it immediately. Otherwise we either end up burying them in Syracuse for all eternity like Slater Koekkoek or Alex Barre-Boule for the sake of playing time. Or we just flat out trade them like Verhaeghe and Marchessault. The Lightning are utterly inflexible on this. If they don't smell a 2nd line center in Geekie the second he walks into the locker room, he might as well buy a house in Syracuse. We almost never take the time to groom prospects at the NHL level. Imagine Drouin and Stamkos playing all of maybe 14 games together in 3 years. Because think of Stamkos being healthy at the time. And all the while the Lightning refuse to unchain Drouin from the bench and the 4th line because he wasn't Ondrej Palat. Stamkos gets hurt and suddenly the Lightning pull the stick from their ass on Drouin. I'm sure you remember Drouin in our series vs Pittsburgh and then Stamkos blowing out his knee a few games into the next year. I don't think we have changed or learned a lesson from that experience or any of the other guys we let walk who immediately succeeded

If the future of the Lightning didn't ride so much on finding another 1st or 2nd line center and top 4 pairing defender as it did in 2017, I am skeptical Point and Sergachev would have ever made it to our team when they did. But I've been wrong before