Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[DFC]

My issue with Perbix is that his decision making regressed from year 1 to year 2, his lack of top end skating speed was quite apparent in year 2 (especially when he had to pivot back when the opponent started a rush) and quite frankly he was out of position way too much. Gotta get him with a better partner & hope he can be insulated.

Right, but decision making can be corrected. Especially in a guy we saw make good decisions in year one. I feel like sometimes we expect guys to just always be at their best, but they take steps back, or have bad years, or whatever. There was a time when half this board thought Nikita Kucherov "couldn't finish" because he had a slump as a rookie.

 

[Todd1a]

Either Sprong or Roslovic would still help the middle 6, and both are more realistic adds given the space that Tampa has left. I would do what it takes to move Sheary, but maybe JBB is banking on him, provided he stays healthy, bouncing back to the level he was at during the 3 prior seasons to last. If they can get the Sheary who averaged near 20 goals and 41 points a year, they'll be fine. It's a big gamble, though, and Sheary didn't look like that player at all last season. I know he dealt with multiple injuries that lingered, so one can only hope that if he doesn't get traded or bought out, he'll be that kind of player again this year.

I’d rather try and get rid of Sheary and pay sprong

 

[JTBF81]

My issue with Perbix is that his decision making regressed from year 1 to year 2, his lack of top end skating speed was quite apparent in year 2 (especially when he had to pivot back when the opponent started a rush) and quite frankly he was out of position way too much. Gotta get him with a better partner & hope he can be insulated.

If he continues to struggle as badly as last year, bench him and roll Lilleberg with Moser on the 3rd pair. If he comes back from a few games watching and continues to then be a detriment, it's hard to see him having a future with them after thus season.

 

[DFC]

What if:

X - Point - Kucherov
Hagel- Cirelli - Guentzel

 

[JTBF81]

I’d rather try and get rid of Sheary and pay sprong

Whether it would be Sprong or Roslovic, they'd need to trade or buy out Sheary to have the needed space for Sprong/Ros, Moser, Lilleberg and a 13th F at 775k.

 

[JTBF81]

I’d rather try and get rid of Sheary and pay sprong

Well, nm, Roslovic signed with Carolina. Let's go get Sprong then; make it happen JBB.

 

[These Are The Days]

Sprong is horrifically overrated. Pass

 

[Todd1a]

What if:

X - Point - Kucherov
Hagel- Cirelli - Guentzel

We should have paid duclair he got 3.5 million per year we could have done that

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I mean, yeah, at the end of the year because you're adding in Duclair. Right now we are better than at the first of last year. The PP has been fine without Stamkos in the past, and there's not much reason to believe we won't be 20ish goals better 5v5. Then the TDL comes along and we will have actual assets to move to make improvements. At that point we can compare the team to last year's post TDL team.

The reason I bring up last year is because the team at the end of the year was still not good enough - even though it was the best we played all year. So the goal going into next year is we need to be better than the team at the end of last year. If we go into next year not as good or equal to the end of last year it's not going to be good enough.

 

[JTBF81]

Sprong is horrifically overrated. Pass

Nah, he has defensive warts and is sometimes lazy, but his offensive production, especially given his low average of ice time, is good. As the 2RW in Tampa, he could easily hit 55+ points and 25 goals, while Hagel and Cirelli could help cover some of his defensive deficiencies. As long as he stayed motivated, he is definitely an improvement offensively over the options they'd be considering now.

 

[The Gongshow]

What if:

X - Point - Kucherov
Hagel- Cirelli - Guentzel

We'll definetly see this throughout the season, but I think we start him on line 1.
If Cirelli somehow found his offensive game and clicked woth Geuntzel so we could put Hagel back on line 1 that would be a godsend. But we still need another winger for line 2 that can carry their weight

 

[Todd1a]

Would you rather have signed Stamkos and duclair over Jake guentzel ?

This way we would have at least filled out our top 6

 

[JTBF81]

Would you rather have signed Stamkos and duclair over Jake guentzel ?

This way we would have at least filled out our top 6

No, they wouldn't have. Guentzel costs 9 million, Stamkos and Duclair cost 11.5. Those are the facts and the evidence we have. They wouldn't have been able to sign Moser and fill out the last two spots with Stamkos and Duclair.

 

[Point21]

No, they wouldn't have. Guentzel costs 9 million, Stamkos and Duclair cost 11.5. Those are the facts and the evidence we have. They wouldn't have been able to sign Moser and fill out the last two spots with Stamkos and Duclair.

Hypothetically if we signed Stamkos and Duclair it would have been just under 9m if we gave Stamkos what he wanted and Duclair what he got from NY.

 

[Hoek]

We saw what Stamkos and Duclair got us though... first round exit.

 

[JTBF81]

Hypothetically if we signed Stamkos and Duclair it would have been just under 9m if we gave Stamkos what he wanted and Duclair what he got from NY.

There are nothing but very suspect rumors that Stamkos was staying for 4-5 million. There is also no evidence, just guesses based on what Tampa tried to fo with Killorn, that JBB offered 3 million x8 years. In the end, all we know is that JBB and Stammos' camp were quite far apart on a deal, and Stamkos took 8 million.over 4 years. He was very unlikely to accept 4.5 to stay in Tampa. It's far, far more likely that his discounted price was 6.5 or 7 over 4 years in Tampa, which, combined with Duclair's 3.5 l, still would've made it untenable for them to keep both with the current configuration. JBB could still add someone else, or a Syracuse promotion.will get a real chance to shine.

 

[DarrylshutzSydor]

What if:

X - Point - Kucherov
Hagel- Cirelli - Guentzel

Too bad they didn't sign Tarasenko, but at least they let Meyer go

 

[Point21]

There are nothing but very suspect rumors that Stamkos was staying for 4-5 million. There is also no evidence, just guesses based on what Tampa tried to fo with Killorn, that JBB offered 3 million x8 years. In the end, all we know is that JBB and Stammos' camp were quite far apart on a deal, and Stamkos took 8 million.over 4 years. He was very unlikely to accept 4.5 to stay in Tampa. It's far, far more likely that his discounted price was 6.5 or 7 over 4 years in Tampa, which, combined with Duclair's 3.5 l, still would've made it untenable for them to keep both with the current configuration. JBB could still add someone else, or a Syracuse promotion.will get a real chance to shine.

so lets say it was 6.5m for Stamkos and 3.5m for Duclair. thats only 10m which is 1m more than Guentzel. we would still have roughly 5.5m to sign Moser and bring up 1-2 depth guys from Syracuse. 100% doable

My bad: 4.75m to sign Moser and call up one of Lilleberg/Crozier

 

[JTBF81]

so lets say it was 6.5m for Stamkos and 3.5m for Duclair. thats only 10m which is 1m more than Guentzel. we would still have roughly 5.5m to sign Moser and bring up 1-2 depth guys from Syracuse. 100% doable

No, they'd have 4.75 right now and a declining Stamkos, a beyond streaky Duclair and the same top 6 that failed to get out of the top 6 2 years running. It may take one more year to have things start to come together with some of the prospects and new guys, and maybe they'll click this year with a better defense and healthy Vasy. The team is better positioned moving ahead, and the current roster may not be final anyway.

 

[Point21]

No, they'd have 4.75 right now and a declining Stamkos, a beyond streaky Duclair and the same top 6 that failed to get out of the top 6 2 years running. It may take one more year to have things start to come together with some of the prospects and new guys, and maybe they'll click this year with a better defense and healthy Vasy. The team is better positioned moving ahead, and the current roster may not be final anyway.

even then, they could sign Moser for 3m, call up Lilleberg and still have 880k left to spend

 

[JTBF81]

even then, they could sign Moser for 3m, call up Lilleberg and still have 880k left to spend

And have an overall worse team moving ahead. JBB is focused on far more than just one additional season. Perhaps if this team had just one or two years left of contention, he would've overpaid Stamkos. As it is, they should have at least 3 or 4 contending years left with good management.

They also have a fair number of F and D prospects that could start contributing as soon as this year, and definitely next. JBB corrected a couple of bad contracts, improved the depth in the bottom 6, re-balanved the defense, added the top ufa F to reach the market, and added picks and a high quality prospect. There is also still the possibility that through ufa or trade, an additional middle 6 F could be added.

JBB decided to do a re-tool rather than watch the same re-run for the 3rd time. Maybe it works better, maybe not, but status quo was not working out. Taking emotional attachment out of it, he did what was likely necessary for the overall betterment of the team moving forward. He's always having to play a tricky game of keeping the team as good and competitive now and down the line. Some difficult moves had to be made more than likely at some point.

It's unfortunate that Stamkos is gone, but JBB is very much an analytics/numbers guy, and he offered him.what he felt was in the best interests of the team. Stamkos had a much higher number, and despite different attempts at contract structures and value, they were.too far apart. I don't blame Stamkos for taking the.bag this time, and I don't blame JBB for not overpaying him for.hks age 35-39 seasons. I wish Stamkos all the best in Nashville, except when they play Tampa, but I believe that at the price range he was likely asking for, letting him walk is best for the mid to.long term success of the franchise with this core. Time to look.ahead for me, and dwelling on Stamkos isn't effective.

 

[Maelmoor]

I don't think it's as bad as some claim, not compared to the rest of the league. Pretty much every team in the league struggles with this. You would be surprised how frequent this very discussion is elsewhere too.

It's extremely difficult to fit in a great second line with the current cap, you need to have perfect timing with upcoming players on cheap contracts etc.

So yeah, there are question marks for our second line for sure, but that is the case for most teams, where they hope someone will step up. How many other first lines would you take over ours?

All teams have flaws, let's see how it pans out.

 

[Rschmitz]

What if:

X - Point - Kucherov
Hagel- Cirelli - Guentzel

Is X supposed to be the ghost of Steven Stamkos? LOL

 

[flying squirrel]

Shame, with Stamkos on team. Lightning's top 6 would've be legit, and they'd be no need for player who scores points. Or no need to recoup from Lightning's reputation being smeared..... Stinks to think of what should've been: Without Stamkos ordeal taking place, team would've had positive mojo and everyone excited about next years possibilities.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I don't think it's as bad as some claim, not compared the rest of the league. Pretty much every team in the league struggles with this. You would be surprised how frequent this very discussion is elsewhere too.

It's extremely difficult to fit in s great second line with the current cap, you need to have perfect timing with upcoming players on cheap contracts etc.

So yeah, there are question marks for our second line for sure, but that is the case for most teams, where they hope someone will step up. How many other first lines would you take over ours?

All teams have flaws, let's see how it pans out.

Dallas worked it perfectly with good scouting and getting extremely lucky with how Wyatt Johnston took off in the O post COVID and then absolutely stole Logan Stankoven in the 2nd round of the same draft.

Wish we found another Point or drafted our own Hagel. Hoping Howard, Gauthier, Duke, & Huuhntanen become something. Odds would tell us that probably 1 or 2 of them becoming good NHLers.